Can Alex Kirilloff Stay in the Twins' Plans?

[Cody Pirkl]

Whether they’re evaluating pitchers or position players, the Twins appear to have some apparent philosophies they believe in and characteristics they look for. With this in mind, one player could surprisingly fall out of favor.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Despite being a former first-round pick and top prospect who has reached the MLB level, Alex Kirilloff has had a difficult professional career thus far. Repeated wrist injuries have limited his performance and availability for multiple years. After two slow seasons in 2021 and 2022, he showed his talent by posting a .793 OPS in 2023. Unfortunately, it came in 88 games, as a shoulder injury limited him again. Injury should be the primary concern with Kirilloff, but the Twins may see some red flags even apart from the health risk.

Kirilloff made some gains in 2023, by pumping his walk rate up to 8.8%. It’s a mark he’s never reached in anything close to an entire season, and the hope is that this is a newfound skill, as he’s long been considered a reasonably free swinger.

Despite the signs of refinement in approach he showed, though, Kirilloff has yet to show he can consistently impact the baseball, a skill the Twins value highly. Among 17 Twins players with at least 50 batted-ball events in 2023, Kirilloff ranked 13th in hard-hit percentage, only ahead of players such as Kyle Farmer, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro. He ranked 12th in barrels per plate appearance, and his maximum exit velocity ranked 15th. Here's a scatterplot showing all the Twins hitters' 90th-percentile exit velocities for 2023, and their slugging average on contact. Only four are to the left of the vertical line marking the average mark for 90th-percentile EV: Donovan Solano, Farmer, Vázquez, and Kirilloff. The latter is the one in the box. He's not all that close to the average mark, even, and he doesn't have the lift-and-pull approach the Twins have exalted for the last half-decade, either.

Yet, he has showed (in a limited sample) that he can be an above-average hitter despite these measures, so what’s the problem?

The Twins have shown they’re willing to make any move, if they feel a value discrepancy between themselves and another team. Despite Kirilloff’s pedigree and history of eye-popping numbers in the minor leagues, the data he’s put out doesn’t align with some of the offensive philosophies this organization believes in. Another organization may see his exit velocities as a non-issue and view Alex Kirilloff as the long-term answer at first base. If the Twins are less confident, that’s often when we see them make surprising moves.

The Twins haven’t had a long-term player at first base in some time, but they have no shortage of options for the future. Even after Jorge Polanco was shipped out of town, an infield log jam is coming. Edouard Julien has already spent brief periods at first base, and with Brooks Lee nearing MLB-readiness and Julien’s shakiness defensively, it’s not out of the question that he could be a long-term answer. Though he’s no Matt Wallner when it comes to loud contact, his established on-base ability and the power he’s flashed would fit in just fine at a corner spot. Julien had 16 home runs in 408 plate appearances as a rookie. Kirilloff has just 22 of them in over 700 career trips to the plate.

As for Wallner, the Twins will likely want to keep him in the outfield for as long as possible with his arm, but his physical build and offensive skillset also make him a candidate to move into the infield at some point. That timeline could be sped up should the need arise, and if other outfield options start to break through in the next few years.

Similar to Wallner, though with more immediate question marks, is Trevor Larnach. Though many have given up on a Larnach breakout season, he’s similar to Wallner in size and offensive skillset. If Larnach can figure out non-fastballs, some time at first base may be a way to get his bat in the lineup more often.

Kirilloff also shares another concern with the last few Twins players who were painfully traded away. Both Luis Arráez and Jorge Polanco had significant injury concerns. In each case, the Twins found a team willing to gamble on the players' availability in a big way. The Twins had replacements at the ready and could add reinforcements elsewhere. After the disaster of the 2022 season, the Twins could still be afraid of being left holding the bag when it comes to injuries, and Kirilloff's health history is as murky as it gets.

Is Kirilloff at risk of being traded in the immediate future? Probably not, though it’s hard to rule anything out with how this front office has operated late in the offseason. They likely still think highly of the former top prospect, and the ceiling is still high. 

The concern is that Kirilloff meets some of the criteria of former Twins who were traded away, to the dismay of fans. Pair his lack of durability with a style at the plate that doesn’t quite match up with the organizational philosophy for hitters, and if a team comes calling on a left-handed corner bat, Kirilloff could lose the tiebreaker to other players.

Could Kirilloff’s offensive profile and injury risk make him available on the trade market? Should the Twins make an exception to how they value offensive players and believe in his prospect pedigree? Let us know below!

Research assistance provided by TruMedia.

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[arby58]

Alex is quickly becoming an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The point about not a lot of HRs in over 700 plate appearances is valid, but he can really smoke the ball at times - somewhat streaky. I was at a Triple A game in Des Moines when Kirilloff was doing his rehab work, and in one game he hit two home runs and a ringing double that went to the deepest part of the ballpark. I was in a left field box when one of his home runs smashed off the facing above us, and left a notable dent that workers above us had to fix between innings.

[Brett]

He may not fit the preferred hitting profile, but he does fit the cost profile. He’s only 26 and hasn’t played 100 games in a year at the major league level. My guess is one more year as the preferred incumbent, but he has to stay healthy.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I could see Julien at 1b too. Just throwing that out there. We will see if Kirilloff can hold onto the position, and for how long

[CRF]

This is probably a make or break year for him. If he can stay healthy, on the field, and the team can see if he's a possibility long term...then it would be great. If not, then they have to give serious thought to moving on from him. 

[IndianaTwin]

He was hurt most of the year and he was below average in hard-hit balls.

Seems like those two might be related?  

[Doctor Gast]

The problem with Alex as with Arraez & Polanco is that they don't fit the Twins-hitting type. They don't strike out enough. '23 was a good sign for Kiriloff that didn't have any wrist problems, that's what we need to focus on. It took Kiriloff much longer to get back to MLB shape. Thrown into RF right away after a long absence with very little ramp-up time explains his shoulder problems that shouldn't be an issue this season if he gets plenty of ramp-up time. 

'23 is a terrible season to get a real picture of what kind of hitter Kiriloff is. So I don't agree with your assessment of Kiriloff using '23 stats.

Kiriloff still has the tools to be a great hitter & 1Bman. Julien is a 1Bman hopefully Lee will come up sooner than expected to take over 2B, so that Julien can rotate with Kiriloff at 1B/DH/ & Kiriloff to RF. Together with the platoon of Miranda & Farmer, 1B will be probably our best-covered position which absolutely doesn't need to waste money or trade bait for a Gallo-type player.

[JD-TWINS]

19 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I could see Julien at 1b too. Just throwing that out there. We will see if Kirilloff can hold onto the position, and for how long

Could respond the same to any of comments so far, just an observation here…….don’t understand the Kirilloff scrutiny other than the obvious health issues? Somewhat healthy in ‘23 as compared to previous couple years, he had a .348 OBP and hit a HR every 25.5 AB (11 in 281) ……..Julien had an approximate OBP of .385 and he hit a HR every 25.5 AB (16 in 408). One guy has no power and the other may take his position away because of his power ……….doesn’t seem to add up?

To me, they are a strong OBP duo with reasonable to better HR pop for the right side of the infield. I think they should stick with this duo and see how it plays out through a season together to evaluate defensively and in key spots in the line-up.

[jorgenswest]

Last year they really needed help at 1B late in the season. I was surprised they didn’t try Wallner or Larnach. I looked and neither has played 1B in the minors or college. That surprised me but I shouldn’t assume that anyone can play 1B. That may be Julien’s eventual spot.

[Nashvilletwin]

So, is Severino no longer a candidate to play 1B for the Twins? I guess not given it appears from this post he’s no longer on the radar screen.  What happened to him since the glowing top prospect report (#15) we read just last week?

Severino at this point probably has more upside than Larnach. Given our dearth of outfielder depth, Wallner is also less likely than Severino to man 1B.  If Kiriloff struggles or is injured and Lee is not “ready” and/or Severino gets off to a hot start his year, we may see Severino at 1B sooner rather than never.

[Sean.h]

Trading Larnach/Kiriloff now would be a sell low move. Let's give them (at least) one more year to figure it out!

[Thebigalguy]

His upside is impressive if he stays healthy but wishes aren’t dreams. This is either his year to shine or his time to shuffle down that sawdust trail into a tent revival sunset.

[HrbieFan]

At some point availability has to trump potential and that goes for Larnach and Kirilloff. IMO the 1B spot is wide open and ready for someone to step up. Is that Kirilloff, Miranda, Larnach or some FA. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

24 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Could respond the same to any of comments so far, just an observation here…….don’t understand the Kirilloff scrutiny other than the obvious health issues? Somewhat healthy in ‘23 as compared to previous couple years, he had a .348 OBP and hit a HR every 25.5 AB (11 in 281) ……..Julien had an approximate OBP of .385 and he hit a HR every 25.5 AB (16 in 408). One guy has no power and the other may take his position away because of his power ……….doesn’t seem to add up?

To me, they are a strong OBP duo with reasonable to better HR pop for the right side of the infield. I think they should stick with this duo and see how it plays out through a season together to evaluate defensively and in key spots in the line-up.

I've always liked Kirilloff too, and I fully expect him to start the year as the regular 1B. Just saying, if there are health issues, it's good to have Julien slide down to 1B, and that in turn opens a spot for Lee to take over 2B right?

If Lee is ready soon, it might be more a thing of Lee vs Kirilloff instead of Julien vs Kirilloff. That's all. We'll see.

[JD-TWINS]

What’s wrong with .270 BA - .348 OBP - 11 HR in less than 50% of a season’s AB’s - 117 OPS+
 

He’s hurt TOO much, agreed. His output, when in the line-up is good. Still young and continually chasing good health…….no reason to make a move at 1B now.

[Jeff K]

31 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Could respond the same to any of comments so far, just an observation here…….don’t understand the Kirilloff scrutiny other than the obvious health issues? Somewhat healthy in ‘23 as compared to previous couple years, he had a .348 OBP and hit a HR every 25.5 AB (11 in 281) ……..Julien had an approximate OBP of .385 and he hit a HR every 25.5 AB (16 in 408). One guy has no power and the other may take his position away because of his power ……….doesn’t seem to add up?

To me, they are a strong OBP duo with reasonable to better HR pop for the right side of the infield. I think they should stick with this duo and see how it plays out through a season together to evaluate defensively and in key spots in the line-up.

Yes.  While Kirilloff's leash may be getting shorter, I think he is a reasonable bet to have a solid season at first base.  I've seen comments about Wallner going to 1b...and I laugh because the Twins are thin in the outfield.  I think it would be smart to resign Solano and run the same plan as last season at first which was primarily Kirilloff and Solano.

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I've always liked Kirilloff too, and I fully expect him to start the year as the regular 1B. Just saying, if there are health issues, it's good to have Julien slide down to 1B, and that in turn opens a spot for Lee to take over 2B right?

If Lee is ready soon, it might be more a thing of Lee vs Kirilloff instead of Julien vs Kirilloff. That's all. We'll see.

So I agree on a back up plan - gotta keep rolling if Kirilloff is hurt. Prudent to try Julien there some in the Spring.

Seems most of the friction on Kirilloff comes from Lee needing a spot on the dirt. Last year, when Lewis only played 3B about 58 games, the slant was Lee slotted best on the left side and could drop in at 3B flawlessly.

I see Lewis as the most athletic and capable to switch positions. Going forward into ‘25 (assuming a blended approach in ‘24) it could be Lewis in LF with Wallner in RF OR Lewis at 1B and Kirilloff in LF. Let Lee play 3B & Julien play 2B and let them get secure in those spots.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

So I agree on a back up plan - gotta keep rolling if Kirilloff is hurt. Prudent to try Julien there some in the Spring.

Seems most of the friction on Kirilloff comes from Lee needing a spot on the dirt. Last year, when Lewis only played 3B about 58 games, the slant was Lee slotted best on the left side and could drop in at 3B flawlessly.

I see Lewis as the most athletic and capable to switch positions. Going forward into ‘25 (assuming a blended approach in ‘24) it could be Lewis in LF with Wallner in RF OR Lewis at 1B and Kirilloff in LF. Let Lee play 3B & Julien play 2B and let them get secure in those spots.

That, or, if everyone is healthy, it's good to have some guys play a few positions well right? That's kind of the hope, I'd imagine.

Especially if/when Jenkins is ready in 2025 (I think that's plausible) or even Emmanuel Rodriguez, the outfield will have things to think about in the next year or two also.

Which, maybe, is why it's why they are talking about trades. Have to figure out the right mix right? Things like this tend to work itself out over time.

[Karbo]

AK must stay healthy this season to stay relevant IMO. Similar to Buxton, he has been very injury prone so far. Unfortunately, he has never been near the quality as BB when healthy.

[Dman]

A near 800 OPS is pretty darn good at the MLB level and that number might have been higher as he likely played through injury.  Would I like that OPS a little higher for a 1st baseman sure, but I don't think he is a liability there yet.

On to the article which doesn't say he didn't have a good year at the plate but that he has a chronic injury history and that he doesn't completely fit the Twins hitting profile not to mention if Lee comes up they might want to move Jullien off of second to first base.

Depending on how fast Lee comes up it does kind of feel like there will be a silent competition between Kirilloff and Jullien.  While Kirilloff can play Left field that doesn't seem like a long term fit given 3 of the top 4 guys in the system are outfielders and he isn't the greatest defender out there anyway. If Jullien looks like the better bat and long term fit at 1st I could see the Twins moving on and trying to trade Alex for something they need.

That being said given Kirilloff has one option year remaining and doesn't cost that much this year I don't see them doing anything this year.  The kid was a feared hitter in the Minor's and looked good at times last year at the MLB level.  If he moves that OPS needle a bit further and stays healthy for a season he will be just fine.

[DJL44]

Kirilloff is the weakest projected starter on the team. His glovework is underwhelming at 1B which means he needs to hit.

[JD-TWINS]

20 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

That, or, if everyone is healthy, it's good to have some guys play a few positions well right? That's kind of the hope, I'd imagine.

Especially if/when Jenkins is ready in 2025 (I think that's plausible) or even Emmanuel Rodriguez, the outfield will have things to think about in the next year or two also.

Which, maybe, is why it's why they are talking about trades. Have to figure out the right mix right? Things like this tend to work itself out over time.

Love position flexibility - am doubtful though that Eddie Julien should be part of this type of approach. Sounds good, but expecting him to move around seems to be outside of the scope of sound judgement. I don’t have a crystal ball but it seems to me that mastering/becoming adequate at 2B is a high enough expectation.

Good hitters are hard to find - cultivate. Kirilloff - Julien - Wallner - Lee - obviously Lewis - Jeffers, these are ALL guys the organization needs to hold on to with their upside. Jenkins is untouchable.

Can’t make trades just to be active or interesting for the fan base. That said, any other position players should be on the “available list” for trades. Maybe we can’t get a #2 rotation guy via trade by holding on to these guys - gotta take the bad with the good IMO.

Sign a FA pitcher & all good!

 

[Fatbat]

If he is finally over the injury bug, he is probably the best candidate for a huge breakout year.  His floor is still high and ceiling is waaay above past production. 

[wabene]

Kirilloff is hard to figure out. I went to B Ref to see if his numbers were brought down late in the year by injury. I don't know when he first injured his shoulder, but he was so up and down is hard to say that injury caused poor performance. 

It is true that every damn off-season he has been dealing with something. To truly reach his potential a healthy off-season to get in the best shape of his life is in order. Unfortunately that's not happening this year. If Alex is healthy and strong I see an OPS over .800.

[Guest]

AK's injury history means he won't fetch his potential on the open market.  AK either stays healthy or works his way out of the league.  For my money, AK has one of the best technical swing mechanics and plate discipline the Twins have had in the past three decades.  He's worth getting him healthy and keeping him healthy.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I agree with all of the trade-skeptical comments here, especially on selling low, but assuming the Twins have to trade someone from their lefty corner guys, the perceived value vs actual value of Kirilloff might make him the odd man out.

However, given that I doubt the Twins are ready to move on yet, Kepler is in his final contract year, and Larnach is in doubt, by the time we know whether Kirilloff is tradeable, the corner lefty logjam might be gone.

[JD-TWINS]

I saw $118M was the expected player spend/payroll for ‘24 about 10 days ago from one, somewhat confusing, source.

Twins moved Polanco, reduction to $108M.

They got $8M in cash supposedly in the trade, spend reduction to $100M.

Add Topa & DeSclafani’s salaries of $13M, total now to $113M.

Last season payroll at $154M…….typical add to payroll is 5% minimum in MLB. That number would typically bring the total to $162M.

The impression I got from reading here, the lost TV revenue was 50% of the contract total with typically half going to MLB. Not sure of these details but I think that’s accurate.

There will be some TV revenue to be had - just no guaranteed path nor number at this point. Getting close to a solution per yesterday’s Athletic. 

Assuming zero TV revenue - $162M expected spend after going to 2nd round of playoffs and typical 5% add, then less the $27M of actual lost TV revenue = $135M payroll expectation at a minimum.

Sign Solano & Clevinger - go to Spring Training.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I could see Julien at 1b too. Just throwing that out there. We will see if Kirilloff can hold onto the position, and for how long

I suppose, but my understanding is that Julien has been working hard on his defense and has improved considerably. Kirilloff has some inherent advantages defensively versus Julien - he is two inches taller and throws left-handed (even though Julien bats left handed, he throws right handed). Julien's experience at first base is also limited. I'd much rather he turn into a passable defensive second baseman, as his comparative advantage at the plate is more likely at second than first base.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

I suppose, but my understanding is that Julien has been working hard on his defense and has improved considerably. Kirilloff has some inherent advantages defensively versus Julien - he is two inches taller and throws left-handed (even though Julien bats left handed, he throws right handed). Julien's experience at first base is also limited. I'd much rather he turn into a passable defensive second baseman, as his comparative advantage at the plate is more likely at second than first base.

I just, that's not what Julien said he was going to do at Twinsfest. He said he is working hard on grounders, at both 2B and 1B, and will play anywhere to help the team win. 

The main thing, we need Julien's bat in the lineup. That's what's most important, right?

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Julien is a 1Bman hopefully Lee will come up sooner than expected to take over 2B, so that Julien can rotate with Kiriloff at 1B/DH/ & Kiriloff to RF. Together with the platoon of Miranda & Farmer, 1B will be probably our best-covered position which absolutely doesn't need to waste money or trade bait for a Gallo-type player.

It's a stretch to refer to Julien as a 1Bman. Last year, he played 17 innings for the Twins at first base. By contrast, he played 535 innings at second base. The year before, at AA, he played only second base. Yes, in 2021, he played all over - outfield, first base, second base, third base - but the position he played the most innings at was second base. It sounds to me like the Twins determined that second base was his best position. IMHO, playing 17 innings combined over 2 years at first base doesn't make you a first baseman.