Can Twins Rookies Avoid the Regression Bug?

[Nick Nelson]

Minnesota's success in 2024 will be largely dependent on the breakthrough rookie class of 2023 continuing to drive the bus.

Can these three crucial hitters fend off the dreaded sophomore slump?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson and Katie Stratman, USA Today

Twins fans have seen it time and time again: a player splashes onto the scene with a phenomenal rookie year and then quickly experiences the full weight of regression in the following season. Baseball is a game of ebbs, flows, and adjustments, which can often hit hardest after an introductory burst of success.

Most recently we saw this convention play out with José Miranda, whose brilliant rookie campaign in 2022 gave way a to complete disaster this year, seeing him turn from key contributor to non-factor and planning uncertainty. The same could be said for Nick Gordon, though he technically was not a rookie last year. Miranda went from a 116 OPS+ in 2022 to 56 in limited time 2023; Gordon dropped from 111 to 35.

Looking back through Twins history, there are plenty of other examples that might quickly come to mind, such as Danny Santana (130 OPS+ in 2015, 46 in 2016) and Danny Valencia (119 in 2010 to 86 in 2011). Both times, the Twins as a team took a massive step backward from year to year, in some part because they were counting on those young standouts to grow or at least hold steady rather than fall off.

Which brings us to the outlook for the 2024 team. The Twins received a historic level of contribution from their rookie class this past season, with Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner becoming the first trio to post an OPS+ of 120 or higher since Lou Gehrig and the 1925 Yankees. In fact, they were all above 130, meaning each of these three MLB newcomers was at least 30% better than the average hitter.

It's a remarkable accomplishment that sets an almost impossibly high bar for next year; there's almost zero chance all three finish the 2024 season at that threshold, even if they all have good seasons.

The big question, as the Twins now plan around this emergent new youth core, is how much of a drop-off we can expect. Ideally, any marginal decline in rate performance will be counteracted by higher volume (fullish seasons from each, as opposed to the 900 plate appearances they collectively made in 2023) plus improvements from other key players – namely Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton.

Here's a rundown on each of the Twins reigning standout rookies and what to look out for in 2024 in terms of regression risks, and how they can overcome them.

Edouard Julien
Julien slashed .263/.381/.459 with 16 homers, 16 doubles and three steals during his rookie campaign, which featured a brief debut in April and a permanent call-up in May. There are certain aspects of his game that make him feel somewhat regression-proof; namely, a level of plate discipline that is literally unrivaled throughout the league.

Julien swung at only 14.8% pitches outside of the strike zone, according to Statcast, which was the lowest rate in the baseball among players with 400+ PA, beating out runner-up Juan Soto (17.2%). That's not a fluke, that's just who Julien is, and it's a big reason why concerns of a complete offensive fall-off are minimal. 

What does regression look like?
While his discerning patience is a core skill that provides Julien with a solid offensive floor, it's no lock that he'll be able to approach his ceiling the way he did as a rookie. What made him so exceptional in 2023 was that in addition to all the walks, which helped produce a .381 on-base percentage, he also did major damage on pitches in the zone. 

Some of that production was inflated, no doubt. Julien struck out a lot, and posted a .371 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), so if all things stay the same profile-wise, we should probably expect his .263 average to drop significantly next year. His expected batting average (xBA) was .233, per Statcast. Meanwhile his xSLG was .427, so we'll see if he can keep the power production pumping. 

If Julien slashes something like .240/.350/.420 next year, while it'd be a significant step backward, he would still be a solid contributor. I'm inclined to believe the 24-year-old can maintain as a top-tier offensive player simply because he's done it literally everywhere, without exception, but the indicators of coming regression are not hard to see. 

Royce Lewis
Lewis shocked the baseball world in 2023 by returning from his second straight ACL surgery and playing at a legitimate MVP-caliber level for 70 games, then kicking that up a notch in the playoffs. He is almost by definition bound for regression because the standard he set is so extraordinary, but the third baseman has given us every reason to believe he can sustain as a star-caliber player.

After slashing .300/.317/.550 in a 12-game MLB debut in 2022, Lewis came back in 2023 to put up a .309/.372/.548 line in 70 games in 2023, plus a 1.119 OPS with four homers in the playoffs. He's set up as the centerpiece of the 2024 lineup. Which could be precarious.

What does regression look like?
It seems likely that Lewis is going to end up being a really good MLB player, maybe a multi-time All Star and maybe even one day an MVP. But people should not assume it will be an immediate and smooth journey even if he's started it with a bang. Turning 25 next season, Lewis still only has 280 major-league plate appearances – less than half of a full season's worth – and within that he's been an aggressive hitter whose pursuit of power has paid off.

That payoff doesn't always remain steady. MLB pitchers are very smart and adaptive. Lewis could be in for some performance-based regression beyond what the underlying metrics already suggest. He had a .354 BABIP in 2023 and his exceptional wOBA (.393) was far higher than his xWOBA (.349). The former ranked 13th among big-leaguers (200+ PA); the latter ranked 65th.

Lewis is still a developing player whose skill set and approach don't feel quite crystallized. Certainly the rapid and recent ascent of his power tool bodes well, as do the glimmers of discipline he's shown. But he's still got some things to prove in terms of plate approach and consistency.

A full-on regression might look something like he put up in his last full minor-league season, between Single-A and Double-A in 2019, when he slashed .236/.290/.371 in 566 plate appearances. That's obviously on the extreme end. But everyone should be realistically bracing for some level of drop-off from what we saw in the last 76 games because, I mean, the guy is human. (Theoretically.)

Matt Wallner
I feel a little bad for Wallner, because his incredible rookie campaign was so largely overshadowed by those of Julien, who showed up in the Rookie of the Voting, and Lewis, who starred in the postseason. In any other season there would have been a lot more chatter surrounding Wallner, the reigning Minor League Player of the Year who broke through with a .249/.370/.507 slash line in 76 games for the Twins, sprinkling several highlight reel splashes into his 14-HR outburst.

What does regression look like?
In some ways, Wallner feels ripest for regression of this bunch. He doesn't have the consistent track record or floor-raising patience of Julien. He doesn't have the No. 1 pick pedigree or magical aura of Lewis. Wallner whiffs a lot and strikes out in bunches, which can cause some consternation. 

At the same time, he has some really durable underlying skills and traits that don't necessarily lend themselves to a fade. He hits the ball incredibly hard, with consistency, and while he strikes out a fair amount it's not like he's at Miguel Sanó or Joey Gallo levels. Wallner also has a healthy walk rate and draws more HBPs than usual with his plate-crowding stance, giving him a solid OBP floor.

In short, it's a pretty good formula for ongoing offensive success, although like Julien and Lewis, Wallner will have a hard time meeting the exceedingly high bar he's set even if he continues to do his thing.

One way or another, fans should be bracing for some level of regression from this trio, as each talented player seemed to be scratching his realistic ceiling as a rookie. How much regression is in store? That answer may play a big role in telling the story of the 2024 Minnesota Twins.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, Here in North Carolina, it is a cold, gray, rainy day after all the Christmas excitement and I have a cough and a cold. My kids and grandkids are leaving early, to go to their homes so they won't get sick. Then I read your realistic article about the probable regression of Julien, Lewis and Wallner...and now I feel even worse.  Happy New Year.

[Dave The Dastardly]

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Winston Churchill.

I think Winny would've made a good Twins fan.

[Karbo]

Some regression is inevitable IMHO. Advance scouts will look for holes in their swings, and pitchers will adjust. It kind of comes down to who makes the best adjustments. I don't see as much fall off for Lewis, other than maybe a decrease in HR's and a small dip in Avg. (.270 would be fine with me). Julian is going to all right if the umps start calling balls and strikes better (fat chance). Wallner could see some problems, especially if he doesn't develop some sort of 2 strike approach. Next up we should see Martin and Lee soon.

[Cory Engelhardt]

39 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Nick, Here in North Carolina, it is a cold, gray, rainy day after all the Christmas excitement and I have a cough and a cold. My kids and grandkids are leaving early, to go to their homes so they won't get sick. Then I read your realistic article about the probable regression of Julien, Lewis and Wallner...and now I feel even worse.  Happy New Year.

First, I hope you feel better asap. Colds are no fun.

That said, this response feels like it would have been read by George Costanza on December 23rd :)

[rv78]

While these 3, maintaining their level of play they displayed as rookies, is important. It will be even more important for the 2 highly paid superduds (Correa & Buxton) of 2023 to produce up to their expected level in 2024. Especially if the 3 rookies that outplayed them do regress. I know it is always a big IF, but IF Buxton can stay healthy and play at a level like he did in 2021 for a full season and IF Correa can play at a level like he did in 2021 or 2022 then the way Lewis, Wallner and Julien play won't NEED to be that prolific. The Twins need to get their moneys worth from those they are paying it to. Period!

[Old Crow]

Just curious as to how many of Julian's Ks were called 3rd strikes on pitches off the plate. 

Hopefully Lewis won't get caught up the Twins launch angle mantra and lose the swing that produces solid power to all fields.

[old nurse]

Danny Santana used speed to beat out infield hits. That was easily defended. His regression should have been anticipated. 

[JD-TWINS]

Lewis - .285 BA…… .350 OBP …… 30HR

Julien - .255 BA ……. .350 OBP …… 22 HR

Wallner - .240 BA …… .320 OBP ……. 32 HR

My hopeful results for our young trio in ‘24 - also hoping these results are based on them being able to collect 525 AB’s or more, each.

Somewhat lofty expectations in Sophomore seasons for these guys but with nearly twice the PA’s for trio (about 600 PA each) the BA & OBP will be there but not in extremes……seems they are all talented enough to reach these HR expectations.

[Riverbrian]

Royce Lewis: I don't believe he will regress at all. May even get better. Royce looks like a superstar so I fully expect him to continue looking like a superstar. 

The question with Royce is how healthy he will be. He has been injured fairly consistently thus far so I'd imagine the same. Gonna need decent depth to get through the year. With health last year... I believe Royce would have raced past Gunnar Henderson for the rookie of the year award and Gunnar was an unanimous selection.  

Edouard Julien: Julien was our most disciplined hitter last year as a rookie. If he holds his approach at the plate I'll bet on him actually getting better. However... He only had 46 AB's vs Left Handers last year. Posters on Twinsdaily have traded Polanco somewhere to give Julien the 2B job. He only had 46 AB's vs Left Handers last year. He either needs a right handed hitter hand cuffed to him or he will be mixing AB's against left handers into his stats and how that turns out is anyone's guess since he was only given 46 AB's last year vs lefties. He wasn't properly prepared last year for what a lot of us are asking him to do this year. He won't step up and be the hitter a lot of us think he can be until he hits lefties. 

Matt Wallner: The most likely of the three to face the sophomore slump. We need to prepared for the possibility. We need our depth here. Wallner has two options remaining so he can be safely taken off the 26 man if needed. Having Kirilloff, Larnach, Castro and Gordon around is needed just in case. The possibility of Wallner taking a step back next year is one of the reasons that IMO we actually need a big hitter more than we need a starting pitcher if you had to choose between the two.  

 

[Linus]

Still think TK had the best view of young hitters. You don’t know what you have until they get 1000-1500 at bats. And that works both ways ie maybe Miranda will bounce back. 
 

Regarding Julien: he got screwed on a bunch of called third strikes but he took more legit called third strikes. When you refuse to swing at close pitches with two strikes that is going to happen. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Nick, this article is very much appreciated because it correctly identifies where the Twins, as an organization overall and as coaching staff specifically, must systematically and substantially improve: namely, the transitioning and continuous improvement of bonafide prospects into legitimate, multi year major leaguers commensurate with their talent and potential.

Given the current state of the financial characteristics of the league, certainly more illuminated by the recent spending spree of the Dodgers and the consequences of declining TV revenues for multiple clubs, the ability for a small to mid-market to team to more fully capitalize on their cheap, controllable homegrown talent becomes even more paramount for any chance of success.

Ownership should take the necessary steps to ensure their FO and coaching staff are focused on (and ultimately rewarded or penalised for) delivering the ongoing development of our young talent from call up through multiple seasons thereafter. Of all the potential areas for Rocco and his staff to provide truly differentiated value add, this is the single most important and one of the top criteria on which they should be evaluated.

[Trov]

I expect Wallner to have the biggest regression.  In terms of Julien, although he may regress against righties, we can hope he grows against lefties, which was just terrible, and that will balance the overall regression. Lewis I do not expect a ton of regression.  Yes, he is not likely to hit grand slams with just about every chance he has, but as long as he can have people around him in the line up and does not press too much he should be fine. 

[jmlease1]

It will be interesting to see where these guys land next season.

I tend to think Julien is the most regression-proof; that plate discipline is incredible and he kept it intact through a small slump in 2023, when a lot of young players even really talented ones start expanding the zone. He might get a little more respect from the umpires in 2024, which could help offset any regression. The real key will be whether he can keep consistently doing damage when he does swing at a pitch in the zone.

Lewis is the hardest to judge for me; it seems unlikely that he'll out-slug everyone on the Twins by a fair margin...but at the same time, who wants to doubt Mr. Grand Slam? The good thing is he can have a fair significant regression and still be a fantastic player.

Wallner looks like the easiest call to regress because of his Ks and we've seen players who K a lot fall into these holes where it seems like they'll never hit a ball again. But Wallner has shown that he can still do damage when he's not contacting the ball a lot, that he can still draw walks...and Cement Bones isn't getting pushed off the plate, which helps him get the pitches he wants and on-base a little more often.

I think all three slip back some...but none quite as much as people predict. Lewis will technically slide the most, but will still be excellent, just maybe not a no-doubt all-star in his sophomore season.

[Patzky]

The amount of regression can be partially mitigated by signing the steadying continuity of a Donovan Solano or a Kyle Farmer. 

[Otaknam]

Calling Miranda’s rookie season as “brilliant” was a bit of hyperbole. A .269 batting average, 16 homers and 66 rbi was solid but not head turning. Three to one strikeout to walk ratio was poor. He did have some clutch hits, but his defense was below average. I still think he can recover his stroke and be a solid contributor offensively in 2024. 

[KBJ1]

Lewis will continue to impress. Julien will need to develope against leftys, but with his plate discipline, he should be able to. Wallner is a Kepler clone and may exhibit similar frustrations. We need to keep Farmer for depth, bring Martin up for CF and eventually Lee for whoever is hurt.

[Major League Ready]

Is there a rule that rookies who play well can't get better in their 2nd year?  I know it's quite possible the league adjusts but it's also possible they get even better.  Maybe Wallner does adapt a better 2 strike approach.  Lewis just maintaining would be a boost if he plays a full season.  

[Blyleven2011]

53 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Royce Lewis: I don't believe he will regress at all. May even get better. Royce looks like a superstar so I fully expect him to continue looking like a superstar. 

The question with Royce is how healthy he will be. He has been injured fairly consistently thus far so I'd imagine the same. Gonna need decent depth to get through the year. With health last year... I believe Royce would have raced past Gunnar Henderson for the rookie of the year award and Gunnar was an unanimous selection.  

Edouard Julien: Julien was our most disciplined hitter last year as a rookie. If he holds his approach at the plate I'll bet on him actually getting better. However... He only had 46 AB's vs Left Handers last year. Posters on Twinsdaily have traded Polanco somewhere to give Julien the 2B job. He only had 46 AB's vs Left Handers last year. He either needs a right handed hitter hand cuffed to him or he will be mixing AB's against left handers into his stats and how that turns out is anyone's guess since he was only given 46 AB's last year vs lefties. He wasn't properly prepared last year for what a lot of us are asking him to do this year. He won't step up and be the hitter a lot of us think he can be until he hits lefties. 

Matt Wallner: The most likely of the three to face the sophomore slump. We need to prepared for the possibility. We need our depth here. Wallner has two options remaining so he can be safely taken off the 26 man if needed. Having Kirilloff, Larnach, Castro and Gordon around is needed just in case. The possibility of Wallner taking a step back next year is one of the reasons that IMO we actually need a big hitter more than we need a starting pitcher if you had to choose between the two.  

 

We need both,  starting pitcher and a decent big league hitter ...

[Blyleven2011]

I don't believe in regression  , I believe in consistency  and consistency is adjustments to the adjustments  the other teams pitchers are making against them  , if they can cut down on the strikouts , and the better players will and make consistent contacts and make something happen  that should improve their hitting  ...

I see Lewis and Julian as the better players with a better approach , wallner has some work to do ...

Please stay out of the double play  , use the hit and run , hit behind the runner to the opposite field,  maybe an occasional bunt depending on who's in the on deck circle and give the other team the out and put a runner into scoring position with 2 outs to go , got to improve on runner's in scoring position  ...

Go Twins   ...

[saviking]

Thank goodness they have room to regress a bit and still be quality players .. I can't wait for their third year ..

[mikelink45]

These comments really cover everything.  I agree with Wallner being the most obvious regression candidate.  I also agree that Correa can salvage a lot with a return to dominance.  Buxton is not one I count - I would like to,

But perhaps my biggest regression choice is Castro.

[Doctor Gast]

Lewis will have a great year that could mean a slight recession.

Julien if shifted to 1B I see very little recession. But if he's over-stretched as primary 2Bman I see a much more recession.

I agree with the common consensus that Wallner has the greatest recession of the 3.

[Doctor Gast]

30 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I don't believe in regression  , I believe in consistency  and consistency is adjustments to the adjustments  the other teams pitchers are making against them  , if they can cut down on the strikouts , and the better players will and make consistent contacts and make something happen  that should improve their hitting  ...Go Twins   ...

Adjustment is the key! Lewis is great at adjusting. He adjusts his swing depending on the pitcher & pitch. He doesn't have the same swing for every pitch. That is what makes him great & what Twins need to teach each hitter to do so. Not maintaining the same swing no matter what.

[tony&rodney]

Nick covered just about everything here. 

Julien appears to be the best choice to maintain or improve on his first year. In the minor leagues he had a higher BABIP and also improved at each level to varying degrees. He may also be working on both strength and flexibility this winter. Julien is a good bet for me.

Lewis had such good stats the last few years that he seems to have figured some things out. The chance for regression is certainly there for Royce but his determination and focus will be keen after missing so much time due to injuries. Lewis has a good vision of what it is like to be sidelined and missed opportunities, which may be a real force in his drive to succeed.

Wallner is an unknown to some extent. He just destroys some balls and flails wildly at other times. His progression shows steady improvement and an ability to adapt after stretches where he slumps. Wallner is another player who may return from a winter of working on self-improvement to have a strong second year. 

As a few other people have pointed out, good health and increased performance from other players (all of Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, and Polanco) could be a big factor in helping the three guys noted in this article towards a better year in 2024.

[Blyleven2011]

53 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Adjustment is the key! Lewis is great at adjusting. He adjusts his swing depending on the pitcher & pitch. He doesn't have the same swing for every pitch. That is what makes him great & what Twins need to teach each hitter to do so. Not maintaining the same swing no matter what.

It's obvious to the fans but management  likes spread sheets  ...

Utilize both old school and new school  baseball and you'll see a vast improvement in the hitters ...

[Fatbat]

I can see these guys having some ups and downs but what if they are legit stars. Guys that dont let the lows get real low and make constant adjustments to reach new highs. What if over a full season they don’t regress? Or just statistically a minimal difference…  2024 could be an absolute change from what we are used to seeing.  What if our hitting and scoring outshines our pitching? Oh the possibilities!!

[Brandon]

I’m going to be the contrarian and say Wallner hits 40 HRs next season and OPS over .980 while Lewis and Julien slump back about .20 too .30 OPS points off of this year’s total.  

[joefish]

I say they will all get better. And next year I will say I told you so. That's better than looking for regression and getting it. 

Hanging on to hope.

[Nick Nelson]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Is there a rule that rookies who play well can't get better in their 2nd year?  I know it's quite possible the league adjusts but it's also possible they get even better.  Maybe Wallner does adapt a better 2 strike approach.  Lewis just maintaining would be a boost if he plays a full season.  

There's no rule. But if all three stay healthy and produce at the same level or better next year you are legitimately looking at a trio of MVP candidates. 

Julien, Lewis and Wallner all had a wOBA of .369 or better. The number of qualified MLB hitters who had a wOBA of .369 or better this year is 14.

It does serve to underscore the upside of this offense in 2024.