What Could a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?

[Hunter McCall]

With Jorge Polanco and Corbin Burnes being the talking point of trade rumors for their respected teams, how could the Twins and Brewers pull off a swap?

Image courtesy of © Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022-23 offseason saw the Minnesota Twins make one of the most polarizing trades in franchise history, when they dealt reigning batting champion Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins to bolster their rotation by adding Pablo Lopez. Arráez and López each went on to have great success for their new teams in 2023, leading each to the playoffs. This style of immediate win/win trade is uncommon in MLB, but could the Twins and Brewers pull off a similar swap to improve both major-league rosters?

The Trade
Brewers Receive: INF Jorge Polanco, RHP David Festa, LHP Connor Prielipp
Twins Receive: RHP Corbin Burnes

Why It Makes Sense for the Brewers
Burnes is in his last year of team control, and will likely leave via free agency after this coming season. He will require a massive contract that would be out of character for the Brewers to pony up and pay. This is the reason for the trade rumors, in the first place. In multiple appearances online this winter, Burnes has been forthright about his intention to become a free agent and his disinterest in almost any deal that would head off that eventuality.

"Every guy who gets this close to free agency wants to test the market"

Corbin Burnes says he would have to be blown away by an extension to avoid free agency if he were traded.

▶️ https://t.co/A1LN2Bqv4J pic.twitter.com/WkXcMVLBi9

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) December 19, 2023

Burnes is a stud, but the Brewers could fill his spot with Aaron Ashby and potentially Robert Gasser, who came to the team in the Josh Hader trade. Freddy Peralta has ace-level stuff and could replace Burnes as the team’s Opening Day and Game 1 playoff starter.

Where the Brewers lack is in the infield. Their potential Opening Day options for second and third base are Brice Turang, who produced a .585 OPS; Andruw Monasterio, who posted a .678; and Owen Miller, who had a .674 in 2023. Two of those three are likely to be everyday starters for a returning playoff team. By adding Polanco, the Brewers would add an impact bat to the middle of their lineup. In 80 games in 2023, Polanco hit 14 home runs and had a .789 OPS.

To add to his value, Polanco is a switch-hitter who hits well enough from both sides of the plate to avoid any need for a platoon. On top of that, he is under team control on a team-friendly contract ($10 million in 2024, with a club option at $12 million in 2025) for the next two seasons. Polanco has been a consistent hitter since arriving with the Twins in 2016, and has never produced below a .723 OPS in any non-shortened season.

On top of adding Polanco, the Brewers would receive two top-10 organizational prospects from the Twins, who both happen to be pitchers. Festa is a 6-foot-6 righthander, close to making his major-league debut. Since being drafted out of Seton Hall in 2021, he has seen his fastball tick up several miles per hour; it now touches 98-99. Finishing 2023 in Triple A, Festa could be an option to replace Burnes in the Brewers rotation, at least by the end of the season.

This deal would also send Connor Prielipp to the Brewers. At one point in his college career, it looked like Prielipp would be a surefire top-10 pick in the draft. However, that never came to fruition, as he went on to miss his entire sophomore season at Alabama following Tommy John surgery. The Twins scooped the lefty in the second round of the 2022 draft with hopes his injuries were behind him, and that after a rehab year in 2022, he could display his top-of-the-line stuff in 2023. Unfortunately, Prielipp threw just 6 2/3 innings before injuring his arm and needing another UCL surgery.

Injuries aside, there’s a lot to like about Prielipp, most notably his double-plus slider that some scouts classified as the best pitch in his draft class. He’s a left-handed 22-year-old with as much upside as anyone in the Twins organization. If Prielipp can return from injury and stay healthy, he’s the type of lottery-ticket prospect who could become a future star.

Why It Makes Sense for the Twins
The Twins are in a good spot with their infield depth. With Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, and Edouard Julien returning as reliable infield options and Yunior Severino, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin set to make their debuts in 2024, the Twins have the depth to offset the loss of trading Polanco.

The lineup, bullpen, and most of the starting rotation appear good and deep enough to make another playoff run. The only glaring downgrade from last season to 2024 is at the top of the rotation, due to the loss of Sonny Gray. Burnes is more than capable of filling that hole.

The former Cy Young winner has been lights-out since his breakout 2020 season, being selected to the All-Star Game in the past three seasons and receiving Cy Young votes in the last four. He won the award in 2021. He’s been impressively durable (167, 202, 193 2/3 innings, respectively, in the last three seasons), and his Baseball Savant metrics are top-notch.

While he’s in the last year of team control, Burnes would immediately step in and give the Twins one of the best one-two starting pitching punches in the entire league. The Twins could work on extending Burnes, as they did with López, or thank him for his service at the end of the season and look to replace him for 2025, pocketing yet another compensatory draft pick after extending him the qualifying offer. Losing Festa and Prielipp would hurt, but adding Burnes for an entire season could lift the Twins to contender status. Is that enough to offset losing two of their most coveted pitching prospects?

What do you think? Twins fans? Brewers fans? Would you consider this deal? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[terrydactyls]

Polanco and two highly thought of pitching prospects for a one-year rental and maybe a draft pick?  Unless an extension is a sure thing, count me out.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'm in the camp of for a one year rental count me out as well. Not going to get him for that proposal either.

I would say something along the lines of Polanco, Raya, Keaschall or Jose Rodriguez and a second low level pitching prospect. I could go along with a fair package if Burnes agreed to an extension.

[Linus]

No way I’m including Festa and Prielipp in this deal. What we are seeing in all these trade scenarios is that trading for good pitching is really expensive. My opinion is that we used up our surplus on the farm. Future trades are gonna hurt. 

[kroll]

Why are we (fans) always waiting for next year or the year after that? No guarantee any of the three have great careers from this point forward but I wouldn't hesitate. Highly doubt we would pay Burnes enough to keep him long term though.

[ashbury]

Polanco and Burnes on expiring contracts (Polanco with an option year) is a good foundation for a trade.  It's just that the talent level doesn't match, so we obviously have to pony up more.  Do I also give up two legitimate prospect arms for 1 year of Burnes?  I do not.  Maybe Prielipp plus Polanco, but not Festa too. 

The trade values site is a useful tool but isn't gospel, and even if Burnes is a stud I don't see 1 year of him as worth what they assign.  If some other Brewers trading partner values him like that, and is willing to outbid us, so be it.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Sign me up for this

[DFlow]

If the Brewers are in sell mode, I’d trade Brooks Lee, Joe Ryan, and David Festa for Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta. 

[Werbellik]

Absolutely.  Doubt Milwaukee would take it. I heard the Yankees are sniffing around.

[Blyleven2011]

If you want to be a contender in the playoffs  , a pitcher like burnes is what you need , high price to acquire for a 1 year rental   , yes  ...

Polanco a switch hitter is a plus and he has been pretty consistent  when healthy  , he should be  100 ready to go , he's not finished with his career  yet , I'd like to keep Polanco but with our surplus of infielders he is the most likeliest to get traded along with prospects  ...

FO,  when FO makes trades they have made trades for players that have some years of control ...

I don't see it happening for burnes unless they  can get an extension  before the trade is made ...

 

[nicksaviking]

I don't want a rental pitcher like Burnes.

Still, considering this offer didn't turn my stomach, I wouldn't say no if multi-year pitchers aren't available. 

It is two of the Twins most well regarded pitching prospects, but these two have serious warts. Prielipp with his injury history and Festa with his questionable control. I wouldn't just give Festa away, but my suspicions are aroused.

[weitz41]

The article on BTR made it sound like Burnes has zero interest in a Glasnow type of trade/extension. There's a draft pick to be had if you QO him and he signs elsewhere. But would that recoup enough to make it worthwhile for a rental? IDK

[CRF]

What it looks like is...it's not happening. 

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I don’t think Milwaukee would take this trade. But I sure would!

[sweetmusicviola16]

15 minutes ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I don’t think Milwaukee would take this trade. But I sure would!

I would too, in a heartbeat. This proposal is an easy no if you are Milwaukee. imo. I love Prielipp's potential. But lets be honest, he is damaged goods. Zero value. Festa looks to be a very backend SP if he pans out. You aren't getting Burnes for a potential #5 SP and Polanco. But on the other hand if we are offering a more lucrative haul for Burnes I'm not interested if its for a 1 year rental.

[old nurse]

What would the trade look like? Will Warren, Clayton Beeter and a low level prospect. I don’t think Breslow is going to overpay

[Brandon]

Trading Burnes is not a win now move for the Brewers.  Getting Polanco is a good start.  But wouldn’t Milwaukee also want a decent starter.  Maybe make it a 3 team deal where Milwaukee sends some of their prospects and Minnesota includes some too and Minnesota gets Burnes, Milwaukee get Polanco and Dylan Cease and Chicago gets several good prospects.  I don’t know what prospects Chicago wants from us or Milwaukee but I think that’s how the trade would make sense for them.  That would extend their window for 2 seasons instead of just one.  Chicago would want good prospects too.  They don’t want to feel like they helped the Twins win.  

[jorgenswest]

I am in but I know the Brewers will get an offer with a better player at the top of the deal. They are essentially trading Burnes and a comp pick.

[Captian Hook]

A BETTER trade would be Kyle Farmer for Corbin Burnes, Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser.

 

[PatPfund]

If you think Burnes wins you the World Series next year (the only year he'll be here), then it is worth it. If they don't win the World Series, they are worse the year after, because they may have infield depth, but they don't have that depth on the pitching side, and this gives up two parts of their future where they are weakest. I'd be in the latter camp.

Not that it really matters, because this team doesn't spill heavy for pitching rentals.

[darin617]

Only way you trade for a rental is if they can include a window to try to agree to an extension. 

The Twins can't mortage their prospects for a 1 year rental like this. Sure, they will get back a high pick when the player rejects the QO. 

Just wait for the big name starting pitchers to sign and give Seattle and Miami a call.

[tony&rodney]

Maybe Polanco and Paddack for Burnes. The Brewers get Polanco for two years plus a guy who can deliver about 250-275 innings in Paddack. The Twins get a draft choice and hopefully 200+ innings from Burnes.

[bjorks]

While Burnes would most likely be a rental, there's a lot of comps of high ceiling pitchers who don't pan out because of injury or other. Point being is while Priellipp's potential is there, but he may never be the pitcher we think he could be. The compensatory pick would most likely be in Round A, so you're trading Festa for a pick. Clearing salary, whether it's used for a Lewis extension, a splash move on someone like Hoskins, a high leverage bullpen arm, is an easy call regardless if it's a rental or not. Just because Burnes has said he wants to test FA, I'd argue the chances of resigning him are every bit as high as Festa becoming a front line starter and/or Priellipp reaching his. For a chance to get to the WS and maybe win with Lopez/Burnes as our 1-2, I'd take those chances especially when the worst case scenario is we get a 1st round talent to replace Festa if he walks. 

[SteveLV]

Too rich for one year, and we KNOW the Twins will not extend him just like they refused to extend Gray and Maeda. They don't like paying the second and third contracts for pitchers over 30.  Period.

So Polanco for Burnes, sure.  Adding 2 good pitching prospects, no thanks.  If they want something else low value like Gordon or something like that, sure.

A big market team like the Yankees, BoSox, Giants or Dodgers will trade for him, not our team, IMO.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

No. A three for one trade should be DOA?

Playing GM for a Day:

Polanco and EITHER Festa or Prielepp...your choice?

2 for 1....take it or leave is Suds Crew..

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Thinking about this further, the Twins are dealing from strength...Brewers not?

Falvine should open Negotiations Polanco vs Burnes straight up?

Why not? Jorge is a proven versatile MLB switch hitting above average fielding player.

Burnes is in the top eschelon pitcher...we get that.

So MKE, do the trade?

If suds crew balks...silence.

If (and they will) counter...ONLY one of Festa or Priellip?

More suds balk?

Twins walk away.

[TL]

It's a pretty fair trade, maybe even not enough from Twins side. if Burnes had > 1 year of control left the price would be way higher. With Priellipp being from WI maybe they would place a higher value on him as a potential home town hero.

I just think it's been 30+ years since the last WS appearance. We need another frontline starter to have a chance, and this doesn't feel like too much.

[Karbo]

Make a trade like this and next year we would basically be in the same boat we are now, looking for a frontline pitcher, with fewer top assets to trade.

[Hunter McCall]

15 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Polanco and two highly thought of pitching prospects for a one-year rental and maybe a draft pick?  Unless an extension is a sure thing, count me out.

I actually think this price may be low on the Twins' side. I personally would do it if I was the Twins, but I could understand why one would say no. I think Burnes is a good enough renal to make it worth it.

[Hunter McCall]

15 hours ago, kroll said:

Why are we (fans) always waiting for next year or the year after that? No guarantee any of the three have great careers from this point forward but I wouldn't hesitate. Highly doubt we would pay Burnes enough to keep him long term though.

This is where I'm at. At some point when you're trying to build a championship team you have to take some risks. I personally would do this trade even if it's only for one year.