Guardians 9, Twins 2: Joe Ryan's Second-Half Struggles Continue, Guardians Dominate Twins

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Twins Video

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (84 Pitches, 51 Strikes, 60.7%)
Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (13)
Bottom 3 WPA: Ryan (-0.23), Ryan Jeffers (-0.09), Brooks Lee (-0.09)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

The Twins are playing out the string here, in their fifth consecutive series against an AL Central opponent. They already lost three and needed a win Sunday to avoid dropping a fourth—an uninspiring response to a last chance to save your season. The lineup is a little thin, the rotation banged up, and the bullpen over-leveraged.

Speaking of that banged-up rotation, Joe Ryan made his second start since returning from the IL—and immediately allowed a home run to Steven Kwan. The diminutive Kwan is a master of the ambush, but that was still a discouraging start to the day. The fastball he hit out was clocked at 92.5 MPH.

Two more runners reached base in the first frame, and three more got on in the second as Ryan struggled with his command. He was able to bear down and get weak contact when he needed it. He seemed to be throwing a little of everything, just to get a sense of what he had working with his fastball—which didn't seem to be much. That bit him in the third, when Ryan tried to sneak a fastball by Jo Adell, who was ready and clobbered a middle-in fastball (again under 93 MPH) 450 feet to the third deck in left field.

Meanwhile, Tanner Bibee took the mound for the Guardians and looked in control, despite some recent struggles and tepid run support from his offense. His north-south approach didn’t result in a hit for the Twins until the third inning, when Luke Keaschall grounded a ball to the hole at shortstop that Brayan Rocchio couldn't quite make the highlight-level play on. Kody Clemens followed with a double the opposite way to score the Twins first run.

These are the Guardians, though, so naturally, they responded right away. Rocchio was hit by a slider at his feet with one out; Kwan doubled him home; and Travis Bazzana singled home Kwan. The pitch to Kwan was a hanging slider. The pitch to Bazzana was a fastball not elevated nearly enough, at 94 MPH. That was the end for Ryan, after 84 stressful pitches.

Travis Adams came on in relief for the fifth inning and allowed a single to Nathaniel Lowe, before a double to Angel Martinez. He recovered to induce a pop-up from Angel Genao, before Patrick Bailey lined a ball right to Brooks Lee at third. Lee converted it into an easy double play.

It looked like Adams might escape another jam in the sixth, after he began the inning by allowing a single to Rocchio and walking Kwan. He got Chase DeLauter to ground into an easy double play, but then hung a slider on the inner half to Bazzana, who unloaded for a two-run home run to right-center field. Suddenly, it was 6-1 Guardians.

Trevor Larnach did smoke a home run in the seventh on a high, inside fastball from Bibee, but the Twins were unable to threaten any additional damage. Taylor Rogers and Tommy Nance combined to allow three more runs in the ninth, as if the Guardians would have any need for such insurance.

Stuff I’m Tracking:

You wonder what the plan is for Ryan the rest of the year. If he keeps getting knocked around, his trade value will continue to plummet. Maybe that's okay; it justifies keeping him around. He’ll probably have another good first half in his free-agent year. The Twins could then flip him, if they can convince another team to ignore his track record of performance after the All-Star break.
Walker Jenkins has one hit in 34 plate appearances since collecting his first home run off a position player.
I like the way Emmanuel Rodriguez takes pitches. He seems to have an understanding of what pitchers are trying to do to him, but it will be interesting to see if he makes enough contact for any of that plate discipline to matter.
Rocchio is such a fascinating player. He makes plays at shortstop that defy belief, and accumulates clutch hits at a rate that makes you question how somebody with so much talent has never sniffed a .700 OPS. He also makes boneheaded plays at confounding moments that drive Guardians fans crazy—although him screening Keaschall making the turn at second base on Friday worked to his advantage for some reason. Is he the LaMelo Ball of baseball?
Two of the most impactful bats in the Twins lineup are Clemens and Lee, and neither has an OBP north of .300. That will have to improve as both hitters are closer to Rougned Odor than Andre Dawson in terms of the low-OBP, high-SLG archetype of hitter.
Royce Lewis exited the game with a shoulder injury, and you wonder if that's it for him this year. He stayed healthy for the most part, but overall, he put up a .690 OPS. He had just one month with an above-average OPS (.841 in June). This will be the third offseason in a row where we'll be hoping for a bounce back, with little evidence to believe it can actually happen.

What’s Next: The Twins welcome the Yankees to Target Field for a three-game series, beginning with Will Warren (10-6, 4.05 ERA) taking on Bailey Ober (7-5, 4.28 ERA). These Yankees are much more about their pitching than their offense, with Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole and the triumphant return of Carlos Rodón (not to mention the steady work of Warren and Ryan Weathers). I still hate the way their lineup is built and cannot wait to see them fold again in the playoffs.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: