Reports: Sonny Gray Signs With Cardinals, Leaving Twins with Draft Pick, Hole in Rotation

[Matt Braun]

As first reported by Jon Heyman, then confirmed by Ken Rosenthal, the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up is a Twin no more. There's an almost golden lining to the cloud, though.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

(Thankfully, Ken Rosenthal is here to cool our senses and establish order, because how comfortable were we with Heyman as the tip of the spear?)

Following a tremendous season that saw him finish as the runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young, Gray spoke glowingly about Minnesota, emphasizing in a rare public plea that money isn’t the only factor in his decision-making process. Comfort mattered, too, and Minnesota offers that in a unique way. The Twins spun a different tale. Much of their vernacular focused on what Gray had done, and their gratitude for his veteran savvy and excellent pitching. In the moment, this seemed like pretty typical posturing. Recent reporting regarding Minnesota’s future financials revealed the team was dead serious in their callousness.

Today, Gray’s exit will become final. His time with the Twins will go down as the best amongst the four teams for whom he’s pitched. Gray spread a 2.90 ERA over 303 ⅔ frames in two seasons, easily making him one of the best traded-for starters this side of Dean Chance. Among all pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched since the beginning of 2022, only Blake Snell and Justin Verlander beat Gray in ERA. 

He also immortalized himself in recent Twins playoff history, winning the series-clinching game against Toronto with an unforgettable pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to end his day. 

Because the team slapped Gray with the Qualifying Offer, the terms of his new deal will hand Minnesota a compensatory pick right after the first round in 2024. That return will soothe the loss of Chase Petty, who was a late first-round pick himself. It isn’t a perfect one-for-one—especially as Petty has worked his way to Double A hiccup-free in the Reds system—but dropping back a few spots in the draft for almost two full years of elite pitching remains an excellent deal. The Twins deserve a lot of credit for their foresight. 

They’ll need that wisdom again as Gray's exit—in combination with Kenta Maeda signing with Detroit—leaves a mangled 2024 rotation to deal with.

Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are well-entrenched incumbents, but Chris Paddack (who hasn’t come close to his rookie-year career high of 140 ⅔ innings in four years) and Louie Varland (who pitched much better out of the bullpen in 2023) leave the back end feeling a bit shaky and untrustworthy. Sure, that describes most team’s fourth and fifth starter situations, but Minnesota would probably like to improve their depth, lest an untimely injury forces David Festa into a premature support role.

Broadly speaking, the team has two options: they could acquire a top-tier starter like Corbin Burnes or Logan Gilbert, thickening their bunch at the top of the rotation at the cost of serious prospect capital. The upside in wielding another great starter is obvious, but such a deal would also protect them from the chaos and uncertainty involved in waiting until the trade deadline to make a move, where teams can hike up prices, and the only mercy is for those with stable elbows. Minnesota tried this route once with Tyler Mahle, which may push them to act now. 

They could also go the innings-eater route. Acquiring a Lucas Giolito or Mike Clevinger isn’t sexy, but it would at least give them extra protection if the ligament gods frown upon the team on any given day next year. This plan places pressure on Ryan shedding his gopher-ball habit—something no statistician or qualified religious figure has been able to correctly speak to the potential of. In the end, the goal should be to knock Varland into the same role Ober occupied in 2023.

Either way, the team has plenty of work ahead. That work won’t reach the surface until late December or January—this is Derek Falvey we’re talking about here—but it’ll help define the move-making possible under the self-imposed economic restraints already affecting their structure. We shall see what path they take.

View full article

[nicksaviking]

"Broadly speaking, the team has two options: they could acquire a top-tier starter like Corbin Burnes or Logan Gilbert, thickening their bunch at the top of the rotation at the cost of serious prospect capital. The upside in wielding another great starter is obvious, but such a deal would also protect them from the chaos and uncertainty involved in waiting until the trade deadline to make a move, where teams can hike up prices, and the only mercy is for those with stable elbows. Minnesota tried this route once with Tyler Mahle, which may push them to act now. 

They could also go the innings-eater route. Acquiring a Lucas Giolito or Mike Clevinger isn’t sexy, but it would at least give them extra protection if the ligament gods frown upon the team on any given day next year. In the end, the goal should be to knock Varland into the same role Ober occupied in 2023."

If they plan to continue to pace the AL Central and aspire for a championship, doing anything short of getting another top of the rotation arm should be off the table. I'm happy to have them later in the rotation, but Ryan/Ober/Paddock as a #2 starter would disqualify this team as a legit contender. They have to go get another big time arm.

And losing Gray and Maeda changes nothing. This team was NEVER going to sign a top of the rotation arm in free agency. 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Whatever they do this offseason, hopefully it doesn't in any way include Mike Clevinger. Yuck.

But yeah, my guess is they trade for a good starter, as well as bring in at least one if not multiple guys on minor league contracts for depth. They PROBABLY want to package Polanco and a prospect for someone, and maybe that's ok. 

 

[CRF]

The next move is all on Falvey. Let's see what he does to offset Gray and Maeda leaving. 

[DJL44]

Gray will definitely be missed. He was great to have on the team.

[jmlease1]

3 years $25M per is pretty good business on Sonny Gray. Always knew he would get at least a 3 year deal and the number would be north of $20M per season. Only real question was whether someone might give him the 4th year. There's some risk in it, but not too serious. Good move by the Cards.

The combination of money, years, and the lure of the compensatory pick meant there was always going to be little chance of bringing Gray back, but it's ending up being an excellent trade for the Twins. We got a lot of value from Gray over the last 2 seasons and this year he was deserving of every accolade he got. Getting those 2 years plus a pick for Petty is smart business, especially for where the Twins are as a franchise: trying to compete. Petty still looks like a nice prospect, but he has a ways to go. (I wouldn't exactly say he's been bump-free, either: only 68 innings and 18 starts this year? Getting to AA at 20 is impressive, but he still looks another 2 years away even if everything stays on track)

Gray and Maeda are gone, but Ober is ready and Paddack looks back so we're not in the scary place we were 2 years ago when we went out to get Sonny Gray. I still expect them to go get a veteran starter either by signing a guy or making a trade, which pushes Varland back down to AAA to start the season. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and PTBNL with Varland, Festa, and Woods Richardson providing depth will still put us in a good position for the rotation to be a strength again. Hopefully the starter they sign slots above Paddack (in part so they can monitor Paddack's innings in his first full year back from TJ, in part so they're raising the ceiling a little more rather than the floor) but things still look solid.

I just remember that after 2021 we didn't actually have anyone we were sure of in the rotation. Joe Ryan was the closest to a sure thing and he had 5 MLB starts. Ober looked good, but had an injury history (that reared up in 2022). We were talking about maybe bringing back Pineda again. We ended up signing Bundy and Archer, and needed them both. There was This year there's much less desperation and better depth already in place.

Good luck to Sonny Gray (except when he faces us!). Great job while he was here and an excellent trade.

[MMMordabito]

27 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Whatever they do this offseason, hopefully it doesn't in any way include Mike Clevinger. Yuck.

 

+1

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, CRF said:

The next move is all on Falvey. Let's see what he does to offset Gray and Maeda leaving. 

Typically, 'bad news' will occur in Twins fandom, the front office will wait until what seems to be an eternity until we're all foaming at the mouth and tearing each others' throats out, then they'll make a move that will quell the mob.

[Jocko87]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Typically, 'bad news' will occur in Twins fandom, the front office will wait until what seems to be an eternity until we're all foaming at the mouth and tearing each others' throats out, then they'll make a move that will quell the mob.

It’s also a strategy that they will be employing again this offseason.  If the Mariners are indeed in on Yamamoto, we don’t want to be trading with them before the signing.  Mariners signing Yamamoto would mean the store is wide open for trading others out of their depth.  It’s also going to take quite some time. 

[CRF]

51 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Whatever they do this offseason, hopefully it doesn't in any way include Mike Clevinger. Yuck.

But yeah, my guess is they trade for a good starter, as well as bring in at least one if not multiple guys on minor league contracts for depth. They PROBABLY want to package Polanco and a prospect for someone, and maybe that's ok. 

 

Or bringing back Rich Hill.

[tony&rodney]

Atlanta was unlikely to go 3/$75M and so St. Louis always seemed like the landing spot for Sonny Gray. Thank you Sonny for the fun. We shall miss him.

The price for pitching is really high. Gray could have reached 4/$100M if he was open to every option out there. The Twins don't play in that arena of big contracts for pitchers. At least not to this point in time.

As far as finding a replacement via trade, it is the same conversation regarding which top young prospect and current young player on the 26 person roster are you and the Twins willing to trade. Lewis and Lee are almost certainly the first two names that other teams mention. 

[KBJ1]

Happy for Maeda & Gray. They deserve it!

The Twins will go the trade route.

Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Vasquez, SWR, Winder, etc will hopefully be packaged for a controllable SP that has upside.

The Angels & Pirates & possibly Mariners starters that have been mentioned in these forums sound like our best options going  forward.

[FlyingFinn]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

As far as finding a replacement via trade, it is the same conversation regarding which top young prospect and current young player on the 26 person roster are you and the Twins willing to trade

Do I remember correctly that a team can trade away the end of first round compensatory pick? Certainly could see that included in a deal for a #2 pitcher.

[ashbury]

I was expecting a fourth year that would have nudged the total contract value close to $100M or possibly a little higher.  It may be that Sonny meant what he said when telling us that money wouldn't be the deciding factor, if indeed someone else offered more years.  Of course it's relatively easier to stake out the high ground like that, when life changing money is assured no matter what.  But not that many players take less than the max, at least from all appearances, so maybe it's not "relatively easier" after all.  These guys are tremendously proud human beings, and money is one way they keep score.  Good luck in St Loo, Sonny!

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, FlyingFinn said:

Do I remember correctly that a team can trade away the end of first round compensatory pick? Certainly could see that included in a deal for a #2 pitcher.

Good point, and it raises a further question: at what point does that draft pick become a commodity to the team?  When the ink is dry on the ex-player's new contract?  Or is there some point later when assignments are made officially?

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Do I remember correctly that a team can trade away the end of first round compensatory pick? Certainly could see that included in a deal for a #2 pitcher.

Yes, but those picks are worth much less than a guy like Brooks Lee. I do think this is a worthwhile addition to seal a close deal. Teams will primarily be looking for players that can play now. Also, teams that are already seeking to add pitchers are not listening on their guys.

[tony&rodney]

24 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Happy for Maeda & Gray. They deserve it!

The Twins will go the trade route.

Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Vasquez, SWR, Winder, etc will hopefully be packaged for a controllable SP that has upside.

The Angels & Pirates & possibly Mariners starters that have been mentioned in these forums sound like our best options going  forward.

You are in charge of a team that needs pitching. Will you trade your best pitcher when you are desperately looking to add to your pitching staff? Would you trade Pablo Lopez for Juan Soto? The Angels and Pirates would have to be incompetent to trade pitching or declare a total rebuild. 

[roger]

Very interesting.

Will sit back and watch all the bad mouthing on this and other sites, waiting for the front office to do whatever they will eventually do.

[Sjoski]

Not surprised at all Sonny left. I believe he was frustrated in MN with the hyper analytical approach in handling the pitching staff. It was a quick exodus......what does that tell you?

[LonelyseatinMOA]

I like Sonny and i think he is a great pitcher but I am glad we didnt offer him that contract 

[Muppet]

15 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Not surprised at all Sonny left. I believe he was frustrated in MN with the hyper analytical approach in handling the pitching staff. It was a quick exodus......what does that tell you?

Whatever. It seemed to work for him pretty well. Since joining the Twins he went from a decent/pretty good pitcher to one of the best pitchers in MLB. He'd actually be my number 1 rebound candidate. Anyway, all the best to Gray and all that. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Three former Twins pitchers will be starting for St. Louis. Sonny Gray, age 34, for the next 3 years at 25 million per year;  300 pound Lance Lynn, age 36, for 10 million in 2024 plus a 1 million buyout in 2025 or a 12 million contract; and old friend, Kyle Gibson, age 36 for 13 million in 2024 and a 12 million team option for 2025. I wish Sonny Gray and Kyle Gibson well.  Lance Lynn...not my favorite. A total of 25m plus 10m plus 12m = $47,000,000 for 2024. Average age of 35.33 years with those 3 new starting pitchers. I am glad the Twins are not on the hook for any of these 3 contracts. Bill Petti wrote an interesting article on Pitcher Aging Curves in Fangraphs published April 30, 2012.  On the average, it does not bode well for the 2024 Cardinals having 60 % of their 5 starting pitchers averaging 35.33 years of age. Plus an aging Goldschmidt, age 36 at 22 million, Arrenado at age 33 at 35 million and Contreras (a 32 year old catcher) at 18 million. The Cardinals are an expensive, old team. With the signings of Gray, Lynn and Gibson, they just got more expensive and older. 

[August J Gloop]

18 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Not surprised at all Sonny left. I believe he was frustrated in MN with the hyper analytical approach in handling the pitching staff. It was a quick exodus......what does that tell you?

Sonny is a grouch, but he's not a dunce. He knows that he didn't have two of his best years in career despite the Twins. He bolted because the Cards offer is above market and he didn't dare let them think about it. I wish him well in all his starts except for any potential one against the Twins. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Excellent comments on this thread. 

[IndianaTwin]

50 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Not surprised at all Sonny left. I believe he was frustrated in MN with the hyper analytical approach in handling the pitching staff. It was a quick exodus......what does that tell you?

That the Cards made a quick offer that he found acceptable. 

Which may also affirm that he was being honest when he said it wasn’t all about the money. And I’m cool with that. 

For all we know, he may have made the first offer. His agent has a sense of the market. I could easily see someone like Gray saying, “You are near my home, and I like a lot of things about your franchise. If you give me 3/$75M, I’ll sign now and save us both a lot of handwringing over the winter.”

[jmlease1]

58 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Not surprised at all Sonny left. I believe he was frustrated in MN with the hyper analytical approach in handling the pitching staff. It was a quick exodus......what does that tell you?

It tells me someone was willing to offer him at least 3 years and $25M AAV. 

The idea that Gray left because of analytics or frustration in MN says more about the people expressing the opinion than it does about Sonny Gray. They are the ones that are frustrated with the approach. Highly doubt StL is going to treat Gray much differently than the Twins did this season, and Gray is going to be mad almost every time he comes out of the game (and will be over it by the next day. rinse, repeat).

[DJL44]

45 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

On the average, it does not bode well for the 2024 Cardinals having 60 % of their 5 starting pitchers averaging 35.33 years of age.

Mikolas is still in the rotation, so make your figure 80%.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You are in charge of a team that needs pitching. Will you trade your best pitcher when you are desperately looking to add to your pitching staff? Would you trade Pablo Lopez for Juan Soto? The Angels and Pirates would have to be incompetent to trade pitching or declare a total rebuild. 

Very true.

Fortunately, you'd be hard pressed to find more incompetent organizations than the Angels and Pirates. Their next logo changes need to be competing Gomer Pyles, one wearing wings, the other wearing an eye patch.

Either way, Seattle and Miami are the teams with pitching to spare but offenses in need, so those would be my prime targets.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, but those picks are worth much less than a guy like Brooks Lee. I do think this is a worthwhile addition to seal a close deal. Teams will primarily be looking for players that can play now. Also, teams that are already seeking to add pitchers are not listening on their guys.

Yeah I agree.  Hard to find a Brooks Lee type player in the the comp rounds.  It can be done just not likely to happen. Also takes longer for draft picks to develop than guys closer to ready. So that pick has only so much value.

I was thinking the Twins might get the Brewers to bite on the Comp pick for Burnes plus maybe Polanco or some other player that fits their roster.  That way the Brewers have the certainty of getting the comp pick for Burnes and something else they need.  The Twins get Burnes with the potential to get a comp pick for him after 2024.  Still a fair bit of risk for the Twins if Burnes is injured or has a bad year he might not be worthy of a QO, but in theory both teams could get something they want or need.  Probably depends on if the Brewers are in a partial rebuild mode or still trying to win it all for that to work though.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Sjoski said:

Not surprised at all Sonny left. I believe he was frustrated in MN with the hyper analytical approach in handling the pitching staff. It was a quick exodus......what does that tell you?

He wasn't at all frustrated by the Twins. I'll keep it short - he loved pitching for the Minnesota Twins. The Twins do not sign free agent pitchers to expensive contracts.