Austin Martin Could Be the September Spark the Twins Need

[Nick Nelson]

After a tumultuous run, the centerpiece of the José Berríos trade is re-emerging as a potential difference-maker for the Twins down the stretch. 

One thing is for sure: Minnesota could sorely use the skills Austin Martin offers when at his best.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It is clear to me that certain people – including possibly the Twins manager – have become overly enamored with Willi Castro. He's gone from folk hero to focal point of the offense, drawing a start in the leadoff spot in Friday night's series opener against the Phillies. 

Look, I'm not here to knock Castro. He's a valuable piece in the right capacity. But a guy with a career .299 OBP and 89 OPS+ is not exactly the prototype for an effective leadoff hitter. (He went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.)

Then again, I get why Rocco Baldelli and much of the fan base would be drawn to Castro. He's an exciting athlete and he brings qualities to the field that are otherwise lacking on this roster. The 26-year-old hits from both sides, can field capably at a variety of positions, and he's a weapon on the basepaths with 29 steals on 33 attempts.

The problem is that all these qualities are packaged up in a player who is, overall, not very good. Castro deserves credit for playing to the maximum of his ability, but even at that he's not a starting-caliber player – or he wouldn't be, outside of the circumstances that have put him on a 450-PA pace for the Twins this year.

Castro was cut loose during the offseason by the lowly Tigers, and he's not a wholly different player for Minnesota than he was for Detroit.

Imagine if the Twins could access a player who brings many of the desirable qualities boasted by Castro, but with greater talent and far more viable upside? As luck would have it, that player might be just a phone call away at Triple-A.

Austin Martin was the No. 5 pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and No. 1 prospect in the Twins system heading into last year, based on traits similar to those that endeared fans to Castro: he's scrappy, he's aggressive, he's versatile. 

"He's electric," I wrote of Martin and his rep at the time. "He's confident. He's a gamer and a playmaker. You want to see him in big spots."

Seventeen months later, the 24-year-old has since traveled a rough and bumpy road – including a brutal 2022 campaign that he attributes to betraying the strengths that made him effective, and an injury-ruined first half here in 2023. But those traits are still within him, and finally it looks like Martin is feeling good again.

He missed several months after spraining his elbow in spring training, and then had his rehab disrupted by another injury, but Martin finally made it to Triple-A last month. He was slow to get going, batting just .154 in his first 10 games, but since then he has looked very much like the electric on-base machine that made his name as a prospect. 

In his past 16 games, Martin is slashing .347/.460/.469 with 11 walks and 10 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances. Here in August he's got eight hits, eight walks and five steals through seven games. 

 

Like Castro, Martin can play a variety of positions including second and all three outfield spots. (Third and short could be in play, though his elbow issues may discourage the Twins from using him there this year.) Like Castro, Martin is a prolific and effective base-stealer, 11-for-13 this year and 35-for-41 last year. 

The big difference lies in their specific offensive profiles, which are polar opposite. Whereas Castro is a free-swinger who whiffs a lot and occasionally gets a hold of one, Martin is a highly-patient contact machine. He led all of Double-A in OBP in 2021, his first pro season, and currently has a .374 OBP at St. Paul. Now THAT is the kind of profile you want in the leadoff spot.

Obviously, it is too soon to officially pronounce Martin fully "back" to his best form after a few good weeks. Even at his best, when the Twins acquired him as headliner in the José Berríos trade, Martin had limitations in his game that kept his projections in check – namely, a lack of power or a clear defensive home.

Those question marks remain, even as he gets back to excelling on his strengths. Martin has only seven extra-base hits (one homer) in 108 Triple-A plate appearances, and hasn't settled into any specific defensive position there, although he's played a good amount in left and that's somewhere the Twins could use a righty bat ... other than Willi Castro.

Obviously, eyes are on Royce Lewis as a short-term reinforcement from St. Paul, and rightfully so. But don't sleep on the impact Martin – who's actually a couple months older than Lewis – could yet make in this campaign if his game continues to lock in. 

 

He still needs to be added to the 40-man roster, but even so, Martin seems like a good candidate to be called up in September when rosters expand. It'll be interesting to see if they try to get him up before then to make him available for the playoffs.

With his skill set and makeup, Martin is the kind of player you want on the postseason roster. When on his game, you want to see him in big spots.

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[old nurse]

Great OBP. It would lead the twins if he could maintain it. OPS 737. OK if he can maintain that. He would be a more productive player especially if the next 3 batters come through. The odds of that happening? Stranger things have happened. Perhaps next year he is the replacement for Michael A Taylor

[Doctor Gast]

Castro has been a valuable bench player That has stepped in & kept us a float these months when Gallo, Correa & Buxton has let us down. But Martin is a grade above Castro & expect great things from him now that he's back to his strengths. I agree Martin step in & be a spark plug that'd pay off towards the end of the season & post season.

[Nashvilletwin]

Just great to see him back to health and embracing the type of baseball that made him such a high pick (and will be how he makes his mark in the majors).

One has to wonder if the trade to the Twins was a bit of bad luck for him. At the time of the trade, our organization was fully invested in the HR or bust approach. A trade to an organization that would have continue to focus on his true competitive advantage instead of trying to create another one might have been a better move for him.  Alas, he is where he is now and, thankfully, it appears the Twins (and the league) may be moving in the direction of his true (and differentiated) skill base. 

If Lewis finds himself in CF next year (to make way for Lee and Julien in the infield), Martin very well could end up a super utility role or left field.  If not, it’s not outside the realm of possibility he develops into a more everyday CFer.

Regardless, the prospect of OBA machines with a bit of stolen base prowess Julien, Martin and Lee at the top of the order in ‘24 is exciting. 

 

[FlyingFinn]

I love Castro as a bench player. Martin has the potential to be better. He's a great base stealer and will get on base more. He just has to be able to hit enough.

[JD-TWINS]

Maybe in ‘24?

I like the “replacement for Michael A. Taylor” next year.

I just can’t imagine them removing Castro from this roster between now & end of September. He’d have to take Luplow’s spot on roster…….let’s see how those two perform over next 3 weeks - he has a shot.

[Danchat]

I'm usually in favor of giving the young players a chance, but I'm firmly on Willi Castro's side of things. Austin Martin has been a poor defender in the infield in his minor league career, and Castro can handle himself at several positions, and lately has looked good enough at 3B.

Martin isn't all that great of a hitter in the first place, he has a career .255 batting average in the minors with no power. Any random AAAA player can have a two week long hot streak in AAA, and even with that he's got a paltry .733 OPS in St. Paul. He'll take a lot of walks and probably get on base more than Castro, but we have enough negative value defenders on this team already. I need to see a lengthy stretch of time where he hits well at AAA to justify a call-up. This lineup needs hitters who can generate runs, and I don't think Martin will help accomplish that goal.

[tony&rodney]

I agree that Austin Martin could be an effective player for the Twins in September. Willi Castro is best used as a utility player, being stretched as a regular. The issue for Martin is going to be at bats. He needs to be in the lineup on a consistent basis. Who gets sent down or dropped? The Twins have Kirilloff (when he returns), Gallo, Polanco, Solano, Julien, Correa, Lewis (when he returns), and Farmer currently available for the infield. Meanwhile, guys like Martin, Brooks Lee, and Anthony Prato are waiting for their chance. All of Kirilloff, Gallo, Lewis, Prato, and Martin can also be considered for the outfield as well. Kepler, Wallner, Taylor are the guys already up with Larnach, Celestino, and pile of others waiting for at bats. Oh, Miranda?

Where do the at bats come from, either now or in the future? I find it impossible to see a pattern that indicates a preferred style of player, unless one sees a general preference for experienced players.

Still, yes it would be refreshing to see Austin Martin get on base and steal some bases sometime soon at Target Field.

[terrydactyls]

5 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I'm usually in favor of giving the young players a chance, but I'm firmly on Willi Castro's side of things. Austin Martin has been a poor defender in the infield in his minor league career, and Castro can handle himself at several positions, and lately has looked good enough at 3B.

Martin isn't all that great of a hitter in the first place, he has a career .255 batting average in the minors with no power. Any random AAAA player can have a two week long hot streak in AAA, and even with that he's got a paltry .733 OPS in St. Paul. He'll take a lot of walks and probably get on base more than Castro, but we have enough negative value defenders on this team already. I need to see a lengthy stretch of time where he hits well at AAA to justify a call-up. This lineup needs hitters who can generate runs, and I don't think Martin will help accomplish that goal.

You stated that Martin would "probably get on base more than Castro" and that "this lineup needs hitters who can generate runs".  But finish with saying you "don't think Martin will help accomplish that goal."  Sounds like you're contradicting yourself.

[DocBauer]

Mmm...I do think Castro is a notch or two above the player he was in Detroit. A team not exactly known for developing young talent these days. Still only 26, I believe, I really like Castro for what he is. I do think he's better than what he was, the SB alone make him a better player. And I think there's still room for improvement. 

But I do agree Martin is a similar skill set player with a higher ceiling. I DON'T hate the Twins trying to help him make some adjustments to find a little more power. Too little power, ML pitchers will eat him, or most anyone, and spit them out. But I also applaud the Twins to trust Martin to take a step back and find something more comfortable in his approach. He finished 2022 strong and had a great AFL. 

If he can HIT, got OB, steal bases, be a consistent 30+ doubles guy, I can be very happy with that. I'd like to think natural ability and development will allow him to hit double digit HR. And that's fine. He doesn't have to be a 20 HR slugger to be very good.

But 2 mediocre milb seasons, a couple months of very good, and then a little over 100AB in 2023 doesn't fill me with confidence he's ready to come up and be a difference maker this year. And this from someone that is still ticked off it tool this long for Wallner to be up, and still ticked off Gallo is around instead of giving Williams a try, or handing Larnach a 1B glove in St Paul weeks/months ago instead of Garlick.

If they bring him up now, I will hope for the very best. I will hope he makes a difference, will be here to stay, and never goes down again. I just don't see him ready right now.

[annismark]

17 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

You stated that Martin would "probably get on base more than Castro" and that "this lineup needs hitters who can generate runs".  But finish with saying you "don't think Martin will help accomplish that goal."  Sounds like you're contradicting yourself.

I think he's saying Matrin'll get on base somewhat more than Castro, but steal fewer bases (including home less), and get fewer xbh resulting in a terrible OPS; and not really be a hitter that generates runs any better than Castro does.

For the season, Martin is like one of the weakest offensive players at St. Paul right now statistically and well below league average. Maybe he's now healthy and has turned things around, but this whole thing seems like wishful thinking.

[USAFChief]

Two things can be true:

Castro is wildly overrated and is getting way too much playing time.

and

Martin is most likely worse. 

[Karbo]

Who would get cut from 40 man roster to make room?

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Two things can be true:

Castro is wildly overrated and is getting way too much playing time.

and

Martin is most likely worse. 

Or better. Like Wallner and Julien..... And Lewis. And Kiriloff. Some people have no interest in prospects, yet every MLB player was one. 

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or better. Like Wallner and Julien..... And Lewis. And Kiriloff. Some people have no interest in prospects, yet every MLB player was one. 

As you well know, any hope of sustained success for this team is developing prospects.  The previous core was going nowhere and future success will be a product of how far Jeffers / Kirilloff / Lewis / Julien / Lee / Wallner and those yet to come can take us.  Hopefully, a couple more from the group of Martin / Severino / Rodriquez / Prato, etc help starting next year and Jenkins / Winokur, etc can support that core group 3-4 years down the road.  Lacking interest or respect for the importance of prospects requires an exceptional lack of awareness of how winning teams are being built.

I will continue to watch closely and cheer on players like Martin to reach their potential.  I don't see him contributing to 2023 but hopefully he is part of 24.

[rv78]

The fact that Castro gets put in the leadoff spot or is being used like a regular player when he should be strictly a bench player only proves one point. Rocco isn't qualified for his job. As for Martin, his path to a big league club would come faster if he was traded. The Twins are enamored with the HR ball and he doesn't fit their scheme. At the same time, if the younger set of players that the Twins have, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Jeffers, Gordon, Celestino all start playing up to their potential there just won't be enough at bats available for everyone, especially considering guys like Correa and Buxton aren't going anywhere either. 

[FlyingFinn]

9 hours ago, Danchat said:

Austin Martin has been a poor defender in the infield in his minor league career

I'm going to disagree a little. He has not been very good at SS but I think he can do well at 2B, LF and CF. Much more athletic than Julien. Not a whole lot of history because the Twins had him at SS for so long.

His eye at the plate seems to be about as good as anyone in our minor league system (as Julien has graduated). Martin has great speed and I believe he will steal bases much like Castro does. A lot of people complain (rightly so) about how much the Twins strike out. Here's someone that puts the ball in play.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or better. Like Wallner and Julien..... And Lewis. And Kiriloff. Some people have no interest in prospects, yet every MLB player was one. 

Yes and very few make it to the bigs and a tiny protion are above league average.

All bring up so and so because he will make the team better, seems to be based on posters looking at them like a father figure: My new boy is better than the your old boy.

 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Danchat said:

Any random AAAA player can have a two week long hot streak in AAA

Especially now when two weeks = two opponents

[terrydactyls]

10 hours ago, annismark said:

I think he's saying Matrin'll get on base somewhat more than Castro, but steal fewer bases (including home less), and get fewer xbh resulting in a terrible OPS; and not really be a hitter that generates runs any better than Castro does.

For the season, Martin is like one of the weakest offensive players at St. Paul right now statistically and well below league average. Maybe he's now healthy and has turned things around, but this whole thing seems like wishful thinking.

You sure read a lot into his comment that I think isn't there.

[terrydactyls]

38 minutes ago, RpR said:

Yes and very few make it to the bigs and a tiny protion are above league average.

All bring up so and so because he will make the team better, seems to be based on posters looking at them like a father figure: My new boy is better than the your old boy.

 

Did you have to apply for the position of "The Grinch of Twins Daily" or is this a self-appointed position?

[Otaknam]

If Martin reaches his potential he could be a real asset going forward. Castro has helped a lot this year, but there is a reason Detroit released him. With Lewis and Lee as future mainstays in the lineup things are looking up. However, they tried Lewis in CF once before and that didn’t work out very well. Too many high potential infielders is a good problem to have. And Lewis and Martin are fast, so that will add a dimension that hasn’t been appreciated lately in MLB. 

[DJL44]

I don't think Martin is ready quite yet. He's certainly not a better option than Willi Castro at this moment. He's about where Castro was at the same age (24) - not quite good enough to help a major league team.

I wish Martin had Prato's skills or Prato had Martin's tools.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or better. Like Wallner and Julien..... And Lewis. And Kiriloff. Some people have no interest in prospects, yet every MLB player was one. 

Did Wallner, Julien, Lewis or Kirilloff compile a .739 career MiLB OPS? With no real demonstrated defensive value?

The OP is about this year. I'd put the odds of Martin outperforming Castro in MLB this year at...pretty low. Which isn't a defense of Castro, BTW.

Some people's default is always the backup quarterback, too.

[TNtwins85]

11 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Just great to see him back to health and embracing the type of baseball that made him such a high pick (and will be how he makes his mark in the majors).

One has to wonder if the trade to the Twins was a bit of bad luck for him. At the time of the trade, our organization was fully invested in the HR or bust approach. A trade to an organization that would have continue to focus on his true competitive advantage instead of trying to create another one might have been a better move for him.  Alas, he is where he is now and, thankfully, it appears the Twins (and the league) may be moving in the direction of his true (and differentiated) skill base. 

If Lewis finds himself in CF next year (to make way for Lee and Julien in the infield), Martin very well could end up a super utility role or left field.  If not, it’s not outside the realm of possibility he develops into a more everyday CFer.

Regardless, the prospect of OBA machines with a bit of stolen base prowess Julien, Martin and Lee at the top of the order in ‘24 is exciting. 

 

It’s interesting how the Twins messed around with him trying to squeeze more power out of him. If he would have been allowed to be himself would he be in CF this year instead of MAT? Everyone and there mom realized what he was when he came here. An OBP machine! I’ll take Martin without any HR’s over a guy like Gallo 100 out of 100 times! I’m excited for what next year brings if the Twins clear the way for the young guys.

[TNtwins85]

I think our infatuation with power and whether a guy can play SS should be over. This team by this time next year will probably have 4 SS capable people who are better than Martin. He’s not playing SS. So that’s irrelevant. He’s not playing 2B as that position is even more blocked. If he starts he’s gonna play CF or LF. He’s not gonna hit for power and that’s ok cause he’s gonna walk about as much as he strikes out. I see a guy who’s gonna hit .250 and get on base at a .330-350 clip and play solid defense in the OF. He’ll be good on the bases and be a gamer. He’ll make contact with a guy on 2nd or 3rd to move the runner along instead of trying to hit a 5 run homer. I think he’s the exact player we need after this season where everyone fails to put the ball in play. I’m so over the power aspect of prospects and power approach we have. I’m fine to go back to the 00’s twins hitting approach instead of everyone trying to hit dingers every AB. 

[gman]

I think Martin can be the Twins starting center fielder next year. Seem like the Twins finally realized not everyone should or can hit 30 homers. The best teams in baseball figured that out and the Twins are just late for to the party.

Martin will be a high on base player with 30-40 stolen base ability. He can cover center field and was obviously never a short stop.  It'll be fun to see him hit leadoff and Julian bat second.  with Lewis, Kirilloff, Lee, Wallner, and Jeffers in the lineup. With Correa further down unless he starts hitting again. No telling about Buxton or Larnach.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Did Wallner, Julien, Lewis or Kirilloff compile a .739 career MiLB OPS? With no real demonstrated defensive value?

The OP is about this year. I'd put the odds of Martin outperforming Castro in MLB this year at...pretty low. Which isn't a defense of Castro, BTW.

Some people's default is always the backup quarterback, too.

The dude is a 24-year-old top 5 draft pick from 3 years ago who was the org's #1 prospect before last season and a consensus top-50 global prospect at the time, but I like how we're treating him as if he's Kyle Sloter. 

Also - since you mentioned it, you should definitely go and take a look at what Lewis did in his second full pro season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

13 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Like Castro, Martin can play a variety of positions including second and all three outfield spots. (Third and short could be in play, though his elbow issues may discourage the Twins from using him there this year.)

You think that Martin could play shortstop next year for the Twins, or could play shortstop even this year for the Twins if his elbow issues are cleared up? 

[Danchat]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or better. Like Wallner and Julien..... And Lewis. And Kiriloff. Some people have no interest in prospects, yet every MLB player was one. 

All of them had considerable success in the minors and Wallner and Julien should have been called up much sooner.

26 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The dude is a 24-year-old top 5 draft pick from 3 years ago who was the org's #1 prospect before last season and a consensus top-50 global prospect at the time, but I like how we're treating him as if he's Kyle Sloter. 

Also - since you mentioned it, you should definitely go and take a look at what Lewis did in his second full pro season.

Second pro season... you mean AA in Wichita at age 23 where he hit .683 OPS on the year?

Kyle Sloter dominated in preseason games which you could consider to be a substitute for minor league games, but Martin hasn't done that outside of small stretches like the Fall League and these past two weeks at AAA. His credentials as a prospect mean nothing if he can't hit.