Should the Twins Trade Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda?

[Adam Friedman]

Should the first-place Twins trade one of their starters on expiring deals to help the organization in weaker areas?

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are in first place, but they're in first place primarily because they are in the worst division in baseball,  But also because their pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball. They rank 2nd in fWAR and FIP and lead the league in innings pitched. They could trade from the starting pitching strength, but doing so would likely weaken their playoff chances this year. Should they do it?

Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are both on expiring deals, so they likely won't return in 2024. The Twins may need them to win the division or for an elusive playoff victory. But, since the Twins are in first place, there are merits for considering it. 

Pros to Trading Gray or Maeda
Sellers' Market
The Twins would consider trading Gray or Maeda because many teams seek starting pitching without an ample supply of quality starting pitchers on the trade market. The Twins do not need additional starting pitching help, so they could take advantage of this market. 

The White Sox flipped frontline starter Lucas Giolito and reliever Reynaldo Lopez on expiring deals for a package of two prospects headlined by top-100 prospect Edgar Quero. If the Twins trade Gray, they could likely add a fourth consensus top-100 prospect to the system, joining Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins .

Return Could Help in 2023 or 2024 and Beyond
The upside to moving Gray or Maeda is that the return they receive could help them for multiple years down the line. With both being free agents this offseason, it's unlikely either will be back. Whether they trade for a young major leaguer or high minors' prospect, the return will help them in future years, where they might be a part of stronger teams than this one. 

It's worth noting that the Twins will extend Gray a qualifying offer (assuming health). In the unlikely case that Gray accepts the qualifying offer, the Twins would retain his services in 2024 for around $20 million. If he rejected the qualifying offer and they lost him in free agency, the Twins would receive a late first-round or second-round compensation pick. So he also has future value if they retain him. If they trade him, they need to receive a return with a value greater than the draft pick compensation. 

Playoff Rotation and Regular Season Rotation Can Survive without Them

The biggest reason to trade Gray or Maeda is that the starting rotation could likely withstand their departure. They have Louie Varland and Dallas Keuchel to get them to the playoffs, and they could dip deeper to Brent Headrick if needed. 

Should the rotation hold up enough to get them to the playoffs, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober are all fine to start a playoff game. They only need three starters if they make the playoffs, so subtracting Gray or Maeda (who likely isn't in line to start a playoff game anyways) would be fine. 

 

Cons to Trading Away Starting Pitching
Diminished Depth 
Many say there is never too much starting pitching depth, which is typically accurate. The Twins learned that in 2019 when they lost Michael Pineda to suspension and Kyle Gibson and Martín Pérez to injury/illness ahead of the playoffs, resulting in Randy Dobnak starting Game 2 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. 

Trading away Gray or Maeda would diminish the depth and push the Twins closer to a disastrous scenario where they don't have a competent option to start a playoff game. Additionally, further diminishing depth could lead to having to lean on much worse pitchers in crucial games to get to the playoffs. 

Questionable Replacements
It seems that Keuchel and Varland are acceptable fifth starters for the next two months. It's even easy to argue that the difference between ten starts of Maeda or Gray and Keuchel or Varland is marginal.

On the other hand, While Keuchel has a 1.13 AAA ERA, walks are a problem, and at 38 with a fastball around 88 MPH, major league hitting might crush him. Varland hasn't fixed his home run problem in AAA, and that's unlikely to improve in the majors. Is the margin between Gray or Maeda and one of them over ten starts really that trivial? 

Morale
For all the talk about value and team control, the players are, of course, people with real emotions like the rest of us. Gray and Maeda are veteran leaders of a starting pitching group that has been one of the best in baseball until the last couple of weeks. Losing that leadership could hurt the rest of the starting pitching group and send a message that the front office believes in something other than the group. 

The Twins can exploit a sellers' market for starting pitchers or hold onto veteran starters for the stretch run and playoffs. What do you think is the best path?

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[mikelink45]

Yes.  Cleveland has led the way in this trade season when they moved Civale.  I think they made a mistake because they still had multiple years of control, but they have done this multiple times with pitchers like Clevinger going when he looked like a stud for years. 

Maeda has been our best pitcher, but unless we are resigning him, he can be moved for a good return.  I prefer we trade Gray who has slipped and is the same pitcher that started the season and we should get a good return.

Ober, Ryan, Maeda, Keuchel, Lopez could carry the rotation for this year. 

[LewFordLives]

No. Cleveland is handing the Twins the division. (Whether the Twins take it or not is another question.)

It's been an incredibly frustrating season, but the fact remains they are in first place. If the Twins make the playoffs they will need Gray and Maeda. Pitching and defense can go a long way in the playoffs. Who knows, maybe Correa and Buxton finally catch fire. Better late than never.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes. 

[Karbo]

They should listen to offers with an eye towards the future. Trading anyone at this point should be bringing in someone that can help win next year and beyond, as this year looks like a lost cause even if they make the playoffs, I don't give them much of a chance getting past the 1st round, especially if the other team has any lefties to put on the mound.

[Doctor Gast]

Twinns are in desperate need of depth at catcher throughout their system & they had a shot to draft the 2 top college draft prospects but failed to do so. Our nemisis CWS made a good deal on Edgar Quero (I've advocated the Twins to pick up). 

Yet I wouldn't trade away Sonny Gray because we can pick up a compensation draft pick. Maeda we won't get much for & we need both of them to get to the post season. I have no faith Keuchel

[SoDakTwinsFan]

100% YES!   

[VivaBomboRivera!]

I think we should trade the people who think the Twins should trade Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda...

[pierre75275]

I think they should trade Kenta. Sonny Gray's bulldog mentality is what you want should you make the playoffs. And if you don't make the playoffs, you put  qualifying offer on him, and he doesn't walk for nothing.

Besides you only need 4 starters in the playoffs and Gray, Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are pretty good.

[terrydactyls]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yet I wouldn't trade away Sonny Gray because we can pick up a compensation draft pick. Maeda we won't get much for & we need both of them to get to the post season. I have no faith Keuchel

I looked back at all the MLB draft picks between 31 and 39 (the most likely spot for a compensation pick) for the years 2010-2020.  That provided 99 picks over 11 years.  Only roughly 15% had any impact in the major leagues.  I would much rather trade Gray for a AAA, controllable player than roll the dice on a draft pick with only 1 to 8.5 odds of making the major leagues.  The chances of success are much higher.

[Nashvilletwin]

5 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

I think we should trade the people who think the Twins should trade Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda...

I certainly respect your view that keeping both Gray and Maeda is an option with merit - and probably the correct one if winning in ‘23 is the primary goal. It especially is the right choice for the FO and Rocco if winning a playoff game is needed to keep their jobs (which some speculate, but don’t really know).

On the other hand, hopefully you can see (and respect) the alternative of trading one or the other also could also have merit.  It’s not clear this team, given its performance to date even with a healthy Gray and Maeda, could be expected to win in the playoffs, let alone hold on to the division title.  A unique opportunity to add a projectible quality major leaguer for years to come, let’s say at a position of need like a RHed CF or catcher or starting pitcher, might bring substantially more lasting value to the franchise.  The Guardians just made a similar decision (except their pitcher had some control left!) yet are still not throwing in the towel this season. They just sold high in a seller’s market and sought to improve their team looking ahead of just the near term.

There are years to go all in, years to sell big time and years to just be smart about the future. It’s not silly to think this year is the latter of the three - and that could include trading Gray or Maeda.

[Peter]

No!   

[William K Johnson]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Yes.  Cleveland has led the way in this trade season when they moved Civale.  I think they made a mistake because they still had multiple years of control, but they have done this multiple times with pitchers like Clevinger going when he looked like a stud for years. 

Maeda has been our best pitcher, but unless we are resigning him, he can be moved for a good return.  I prefer we trade Gray who has slipped and is the same pitcher that started the season and we should get a good return.

Ober, Ryan, Maeda, Keuchel, Lopez could carry the rotation for this year. 

Don't forget Paddack.

[JDubs]

This is 100% Betteridge's law of headlines right here.

[Trov]

As I always say, if the deal is good enough then do it.  I would be willing to part with either if the return is worth it.  I am not saying we should sell, but we could handle losing one of our starters right now.  Who would have thought this would be the case coming into the year?  But, the deal needs to make sense, preferring to get back younger pitching that should be ready in a year or two, and not just more bats.  We have plenty of possible bats right now, but pitching prospects have been light lately, mainly due to injuries. 

I do not what is offered out there, but I would also look to deal them to NL team than an AL competitor right now.  Nothing would be worse than if we make the playoffs and lose a game to a guy we traded away.  

[Heiny]

Sonny should bring pretty good value to a team in buying mode.  I wouldn't be upset if we traded him, but we would need an RP and/or RH outfielder for this year and a top prospect or I would say no.

[specialiststeve]

As I have been saying here there and everywhere....

Gray, Maeta, and Max ALL should go if there is a decent offer on the table... Gallo... should just go - addition by subtraction. 

This team is not good enough to do any damage in the playoffs if they back their way in... getting solid return for guys leaving is the "smart" thing to do... see Tampa Bay... Fill the minors with high quality players for guys leaving.. Allow the system to feed the major league club and to use as when needed to get a guy .. when team is REALLY in contention. 

[Chris Spencer]

I wouldn't trade either of them. Gray I would hold onto and give the QO for draft compensation. Kenta has been very good and has a proven track record in the playoffs. I would be more willing to trade guys like Vasquez, Farmer or Solano. 

[khal149]

Yes....please. If this were a stronger overall team that looked like a potential WS team, I would say no, but the hope is to: 1. Win a playoff GAME, and 2. Win a single series.  I don't see any chance it goes beyond that...the bullpen won't allow it.  As stated, we only need 3-4 starters in the playoffs, and Keuchel is fine as a #5 for the rest of the season (10-11 starts).

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twinns are in desperate need of depth at catcher throughout their system & they had a shot to draft the 2 top college draft prospects but failed to do so. Our nemisis CWS made a good deal on Edgar Quero (I've advocated the Twins to pick up). 

Yet I wouldn't trade away Sonny Gray because we can pick up a compensation draft pick. Maeda we won't get much for & we need both of them to get to the post season. I have no faith Keuchel

The way maeda has pitched since coming off the injured list I think his value would be higher than gray in a trade  ...

Thextwins have the option with Gray with a qualifying offer ,  the Twins will need more value for Gray in a trade than just a compensation pick , would teams give up more for Sonny  , I guess we will see by this evening  ....

I'm in favor of trading one of the two for the future of the Twins ...

 

[TwinkieFan4life]

Yes!  Maybe we could fill the RH bat hole on the roster the way the Reds did by acquiring Steer last year (hitting something like 310-370-580 vs LH this year).  We are clearly going nowhere this season.

[farmerguychris]

Yes - our goal this year should be to win 1 playoff game.  We can do that while still building for the future if we let Gray and Maeda go.  

Focus on next year after the recent Royals series.

Sell high.

[KBJ1]

Trading for a RH bat at the deadline, while perhaps helpful, would not be a long term solution.

At this point they should just bring up Severino from AA and let him rip!

Bullpen help however is a must if they want to make the playoffs.

Gallo, Lanarch, Kepler, even Polanco are expendable right now.

Solano can play 1st base until Kiriloff returns and Farmer can play 3rd until Lewis gets back. Should be able to get solid bullpen help and maybe a RH rental outfield bat with those.

Kuechel could be a left hand option out of the pen, but I wouldn't count on him to replace Gray or Maeda. Maeda has been our best starter since the break.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twinns are in desperate need of depth at catcher throughout their system & they had a shot to draft the 2 top college draft prospects but failed to do so. Our nemisis CWS made a good deal on Edgar Quero (I've advocated the Twins to pick up). 

Yet I wouldn't trade away Sonny Gray because we can pick up a compensation draft pick. Maeda we won't get much for & we need both of them to get to the post season. I have no faith Keuchel

Twins catcher depth is actually decent.  Add in we were clamoring for a catcher,  we got one,  Nate Baez came back healthy and has started to perform fairly well in these early stages.     

[Minny505]

This is the kind of article that needs a poll attached. I am genuinely curious how the multitude feels on this subject.

I would absolutely trade one of them. The haul for Grey needs to be more than Maeda as Gray is already bringing back a likely Top 150 prospect in the QO. 

It all depends on the return. A Top 100 prospect, on any public list, would absolutely cement the decision as a firm YES for either, and even a Top 150 for Maeda.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

5 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

I think we should trade the people who think the Twins should trade Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda...

We will probably make the playoffs with or without Gray and Maeda.  If we do we will probably get bounced with or without Maeda.  So why not get value for them before they hit free agency?  If we were legit WS contenders then trading them would be asinine and we should be big time buyers.  But we are WS pretenders.  Not contenders.

 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

12 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

 ... It’s not clear this team, given its performance to date even with a healthy Gray and Maeda, could be expected to win in the playoffs, let alone hold on to the division title.  A unique opportunity to add a projectible quality major leaguer for years to come...

Who knows how far the Twins could go in an FY23 postseason?  Who knew (really!) in 1987?  One thing we do know - post season chances are precious and one that is (nearly) in the hand ought not to be swapped for a potentially better chance in the bush. Too many things can happen along the way.  Live - and play - for now.
No doubt there are trades out there for these two pitchers that makes sense, but not many, and practically none for prospects. Those trades happen after the last out of the year.
 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

1 minute ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

So why not get value for them before they hit free agency?

Don't forget - when another club signs a free agent who refuses a qualifying offer, the player's previous club gets a draft pick.

[HokieRif]

5 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Who knew (really!) in 1987?  One thing we do know - post season chances are precious and one that is (nearly) in the hand ought not to be swapped for a potentially better chance in the bush. Too many things can happen along the way.  Live - and play - for now.

The last 2 decades haven't been kind to us, but what is different about this year is that we are statistically improbable to run into the Yankees this year.  It would take a division-wide collapse in the East for NY to get in, and that alone should give everyone hope.

[gman]

Trade both Gray and Maeda. Trade Kuechel if you can get a decent prospect. Trade Kepler and Gallo, if you can. The Twins can probably win the division with as low as 77 wins. A winning record doesn't really matter. Cleveland is playing them for saps right now, sending out all kinds of false flags. Stringing the trade deadline out so the Twins won't make moves to both win this years division title and strengthen next years team.