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The Twins are in first place, but they're in first place primarily because they are in the worst division in baseball, But also because their pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball. They rank 2nd in fWAR and FIP and lead the league in innings pitched. They could trade from the starting pitching strength, but doing so would likely weaken their playoff chances this year. Should they do it?
Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are both on expiring deals, so they likely won't return in 2024. The Twins may need them to win the division or for an elusive playoff victory. But, since the Twins are in first place, there are merits for considering it.
Pros to Trading Gray or Maeda
Sellers' Market
The Twins would consider trading Gray or Maeda because many teams seek starting pitching without an ample supply of quality starting pitchers on the trade market. The Twins do not need additional starting pitching help, so they could take advantage of this market.
The White Sox flipped frontline starter Lucas Giolito and reliever Reynaldo Lopez on expiring deals for a package of two prospects headlined by top-100 prospect Edgar Quero. If the Twins trade Gray, they could likely add a fourth consensus top-100 prospect to the system, joining Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins .
Return Could Help in 2023 or 2024 and Beyond
The upside to moving Gray or Maeda is that the return they receive could help them for multiple years down the line. With both being free agents this offseason, it's unlikely either will be back. Whether they trade for a young major leaguer or high minors' prospect, the return will help them in future years, where they might be a part of stronger teams than this one.
It's worth noting that the Twins will extend Gray a qualifying offer (assuming health). In the unlikely case that Gray accepts the qualifying offer, the Twins would retain his services in 2024 for around $20 million. If he rejected the qualifying offer and they lost him in free agency, the Twins would receive a late first-round or second-round compensation pick. So he also has future value if they retain him. If they trade him, they need to receive a return with a value greater than the draft pick compensation.
Playoff Rotation and Regular Season Rotation Can Survive without Them
The biggest reason to trade Gray or Maeda is that the starting rotation could likely withstand their departure. They have Louie Varland and Dallas Keuchel to get them to the playoffs, and they could dip deeper to Brent Headrick if needed.
Should the rotation hold up enough to get them to the playoffs, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober are all fine to start a playoff game. They only need three starters if they make the playoffs, so subtracting Gray or Maeda (who likely isn't in line to start a playoff game anyways) would be fine.
Cons to Trading Away Starting Pitching
Diminished Depth
Many say there is never too much starting pitching depth, which is typically accurate. The Twins learned that in 2019 when they lost Michael Pineda to suspension and Kyle Gibson and Martín Pérez to injury/illness ahead of the playoffs, resulting in Randy Dobnak starting Game 2 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium.
Trading away Gray or Maeda would diminish the depth and push the Twins closer to a disastrous scenario where they don't have a competent option to start a playoff game. Additionally, further diminishing depth could lead to having to lean on much worse pitchers in crucial games to get to the playoffs.
Questionable Replacements
It seems that Keuchel and Varland are acceptable fifth starters for the next two months. It's even easy to argue that the difference between ten starts of Maeda or Gray and Keuchel or Varland is marginal.
On the other hand, While Keuchel has a 1.13 AAA ERA, walks are a problem, and at 38 with a fastball around 88 MPH, major league hitting might crush him. Varland hasn't fixed his home run problem in AAA, and that's unlikely to improve in the majors. Is the margin between Gray or Maeda and one of them over ten starts really that trivial?
Morale
For all the talk about value and team control, the players are, of course, people with real emotions like the rest of us. Gray and Maeda are veteran leaders of a starting pitching group that has been one of the best in baseball until the last couple of weeks. Losing that leadership could hurt the rest of the starting pitching group and send a message that the front office believes in something other than the group.
The Twins can exploit a sellers' market for starting pitchers or hold onto veteran starters for the stretch run and playoffs. What do you think is the best path?
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