Lackluster Performance Puts Carlos Correa in Running for the AL's Least Valuable Player

[Cody Christie]

The Twins hoped Carlos Correa would be a staple at the top of the line-up while powering Minnesota into a regular contender. After a disastrous first half, he is among the American League's Least Valuable Players.

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

 

Many national outlets will be handing out first-half awards this week, with MLB's All-Star festivities occurring in Seattle. Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. are the leaders in their respective leagues for the MVP awards, but those aren't the only races to watch. The Athletic's Jayson Stark takes a unique approach and names the contenders for each league's Least Valuable Player. Unfortunately, Carlos Correa is one of the top names on his list.

Stark named Jose Abreu the AL's first-half LVP, which is undoubtedly a strong choice. However, Correa might need a more extended look for the top spot. For Stark, the LVP awards "usually come down to what's expected versus what has actually happened." Here's a look at the top names on the list and how their first-half numbers compare to their preseason projections. 

Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins
Preseason ZiPS Projections: 5.9 fWAR (3rd in the AL), .827 OPS, 137 wRC+
First Half Totals: 1.0 fWAR (50th in the AL), .700 OPS, 94 wRC+

Correa is on pace for career lows in nearly every offensive category. In preseason projections, ZiPS picked him to finish third in the AL in WAR behind Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez. His current 92 OPS+ is a career low, as he's only had two seasons with an OPS+ below 120. His season can't gain any traction at the plate, especially for a player expected to be among the best in the AL. Correa's plantar fasciitis might be one of the reasons for his poor performance, but the Twins will need a better second-half performance to help the team stay in contention. 

Jose Abreu, Houston Astros
Preseason ZiPS Projections: 2.8 fWAR (61st in the AL), .802 OPS, 129 wRC+
First Half Totals: -0.8 fWAR (70th in the AL), .631 OPS, 74 wRC+

Abreu's first-half numbers are hard to ignore, as age might be catching up to the 36-year-old slugger. He's averaged a 131 OPS+ throughout his career, but he's over 55 points lower than that in the first half. He ranks last among regular first basemen in OPS and park-adjusted OPS+. Even with his poor first half, Abreu is close to where he was supposed to rank in the AL, according to fWAR. He can get closer to his preseason expectations with a solid second half. The same thing can't be said for Correa. 

Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
Preseason ZiPS Projections: 2.6 fWAR (69th in the AL), .756 OPS, 114 wRC+
First Half Totals: -0.9 fWAR (71st in the AL), .531 OPS, 46 wRC+

Preseason projections had Chicago in contention with Minnesota and Cleveland for the AL Central title, but little has gone right in the South Side. The White Sox sit in fourth place in the division and are currently 15 games under .500 in arguably baseball's worst division. Anderson has been a spark plug for Chicago's offense in the past, so his poor performance is tied to some of their struggles this season. Like Abreu, his fWAR ranking isn't far from his preseason projections. He can post improved numbers in the second half and remove himself from consideration for this award. 

Enrique Hernandez, Boston Red Sox
Preseason ZiPS Projections: 3.1 fWAR (50th in the AL), .741 OPS, 106 wRC+
First Half Totals: -1.2 fWAR (72nd in the AL), .606 OPS, 63 wRC+

Hernandez ranks at the bottom of the AL among qualified batters according to fWAR, and there have been few signs of improvement. The Red Sox are four games over .500, but they are nine out of first place in the AL East juggernaut. Boston is only two games out of a Wild Card spot, so they must jump at least one team in their division to make the playoffs. If the Red Sox want a second-half turnaround, players like Hernandez must perform closer to expectations. 

Based on preseason projections, Correa has been the more significant disappointment because he was supposed to be one of the league's best players. Here is how my ballot would look, and feel free to add your ballot in the comments. 

Cody's AL First-Half LVP Ballot
1. Correa
2. Abreu
3. Hernandez
4. Anderson

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

It's fun how you pick Correa for lvp when the other 3 players you list all have negative fwar and he doesn't.

Hopefully he is feeling better from his plantar fasciitis asap. I'd imagine his numbers will course correct over time. 

[Brandon]

Kinda harsh.  Correa is trending up. He raised his average 25 points the last three or 4 weeks.  If his average was .260 just 35 more points his line would be down but not out of range of expectations.  His power numbers are still in line with his career.  So let’s give him a break if it’s the injury causing this.  

[OvertheHill]

Injury or no, I think he's still playing excellent in the field at least. I'm not rushing to defend him; he's being paid to be a superstar and team leader; pretty hard to do that when you're struggling for half a season at the plate. But there are some signs of improvement there. 

[DJL44]

Correa isn't even close to the least valuable player on the Twins, let alone the entire American League.

[laloesch]

44 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It's fun how you pick Correa for lvp when the other 3 players you list all have negative fwar and he doesn't.

Hopefully he is feeling better from his plantar fasciitis asap. I'd imagine his numbers will course correct over time. 

As someone who has suffered plantar fasciitis it is extremely painful and can take YEARS to heal.  I'm 6'-5" and a runner.  I developed fascitis a few years ago and it took me almost 2 years to get rid of it. 

[HokieRif]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It's fun how you pick Correa for lvp when the other 3 players you list all have negative fwar and he doesn't.

Hopefully he is feeling better from his plantar fasciitis asap. I'd imagine his numbers will course correct over time. 

Correa is performing -4.9 in fWAR.  The others are -2. He's under performing almost 2.5 as bad as everyone else on the list. Correa is also making $33.3M this year... The others (Abreu $19.5M, Anderson $12.5M, and Hernandez $10M) aren't sniffing that kind of money.  When you take the performance and couple that with the extreme amount he's being paid for what we get, he's absolutely the LVP on this list.

[Brandon]

18 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

Correa is performing -4.9 in fWAR.  The others are -2. He's under performing almost 2.5 as bad as everyone else on the list. Correa is also making $33.3M this year... The others (Abreu $19.5M, Anderson $12.5M, and Hernandez $10M) aren't sniffing that kind of money.  When you take the performance and couple that with the extreme amount he's being paid for what we get, he's absolutely the LVP on this list.

The 5.9 was a projection for the year not actual.  2.  We are only half way through the season.  3 at his price break even is 3.5 WAR.  He is on track for 2.0. Yes below value but also time enough to close the gap considerably.  And he is trending up.

Absolutely make the complaint he hasn’t performed to standards. Even he would defend your arguments to some degree. But to say least valuable is over doing it by a mile.

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

Correa is performing -4.9 in fWAR.  The others are -2. He's under performing almost 2.5 as bad as everyone else on the list. Correa is also making $33.3M this year... The others (Abreu $19.5M, Anderson $12.5M, and Hernandez $10M) aren't sniffing that kind of money.  When you take the performance and couple that with the extreme amount he's being paid for what we get, he's absolutely the LVP on this list.

First, you're reading something wrong. Correa has 1.0 fWAR

Minnesota Twins Leaderboards » 2023 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Second, by that logic Mike Trout and Aaron Judge shouldn't win an MVP because they make too much money to be valuable. Only minimum salary All-Stars would win the award.

[IndianaTwin]

"Biggest Disappointment" is way different than "Least Valuable." 

It's true Correa has underperformed expectations, which has been a disappointment. But even so, I don't think I'd argue for him as the "biggest" disappointment. No way has he been the "Least Valuable." 

[HokieRif]

56 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

First, you're reading something wrong. Correa has 1.0 fWAR

Minnesota Twins Leaderboards » 2023 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Second, by that logic Mike Trout and Aaron Judge shouldn't win an MVP because they make too much money to be valuable. Only minimum salary All-Stars would win the award.

Furious typing mistake on my part - he’s performing 4.9 fWAR below his projected 5.9 fWAR. That’s how I’m getting to him performing roughly 2.5x worse than the others relative to their projections.  
 

whatever the case - he’s having a miserable season and is being way overpaid for what he is delivering on the field. 

[Mike Sixel]

They aren't winning anything with him and Buxton playing this way. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

First, you're reading something wrong. Correa has 1.0 fWAR

Minnesota Twins Leaderboards » 2023 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Second, by that logic Mike Trout and Aaron Judge shouldn't win an MVP because they make too much money to be valuable. Only minimum salary All-Stars would win the award.

Mike Trout and Aaron Judge should not win MVP--because they are not valuable in the sense that they are getting paid more or less appropriately for how they are producing.  They should win outstanding player awards, but value brings salary into the equation--Trout is 3rd among hitters in salary and Judge is 1st.  In WAR, Trout is 16th and Judge is 27th.  In the AL, Wander Franco is probably the MVP; 5th overall in WAR and costs $2.5M.  You could also go with Garcia at 9th overall in WAR and only $750k in salary.

In fact, you could have Franco, Robert, Garcia, Ramirez, and Heim on your roster for $27M and have 17.6 WAR (Trout is 3.1 and Judge is 2.8) and still have more than $10M left when compared to Trout or Judge.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Mike Trout and Aaron Judge should not win MVP--because they are not valuable in the sense that they are getting paid more or less appropriately for how they are producing.  They should win outstanding player awards, but value brings salary into the equation--Trout is 3rd among hitters in salary and Judge is 1st.  In WAR, Trout is 16th and Judge is 27th.  In the AL, Wander Franco is probably the MVP; 5th overall in WAR and costs $2.5M.  You could also go with Garcia at 9th overall in WAR and only $750k in salary.

In fact, you could have Franco, Robert, Garcia, Ramirez, and Heim on your roster for $27M and have 17.6 WAR (Trout is 3.1 and Judge is 2.8) and still have more than $10M left when compared to Trout or Judge.

I disagree completely. Value is all about how much the player helped his team win. What the player is paid is irrelevant to the discussion.

Here are the MVP voting instructions:

Quote

(1) actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense; (2) number of games played; (3) general character, disposition, loyalty and effort; (4) former winners are eligible; and (5) members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

They don't have a (6) how little the player is paid because of MLB service time rules

[Cap'n Piranha]

42 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I disagree completely. Value is all about how much the player helped his team win. What the player is paid is irrelevant to the discussion.

Here are the MVP voting instructions:

They don't have a (6) how little the player is paid because of MLB service time rules

All fine for you to think that, but a player that costs less while still producing does help his team win by leaving payroll space available to get other players.  Part of why the Angels are closing in on a decade since their last playoff appearance is because they've been paying 2-3 players $50M-$80M for the last decade, leaving them no space to build up a better supporting cast.  Those expensive players soaking up the payroll have therefore not been valuable, since their presence impeded the overall team being better.

[jkcarew]

Yeah. But I still don’t think he ranks high on the list of issues (at least longer-term) with this club.

Admittedly, that’s based on a belief that the hitting will come back close to career norms, which is no guarantee. Fwiw, BABiP is way below career norms…and it matches the eye test, IMO. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

Kinda harsh.  Correa is trending up. He raised his average 25 points the last three or 4 weeks.  If his average was .260 just 35 more points his line would be down but not out of range of expectations.  His power numbers are still in line with his career.  So let’s give him a break if it’s the injury causing this.  

For Carlos to have a 2023 seasonal batting average of .260, he will need to have a .295 batting average the rest of this season. That's entirely doable, I hope. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

All fine for you to think that, but a player that costs less while still producing does help his team win by leaving payroll space available to get other players.  Part of why the Angels are closing in on a decade since their last playoff appearance is because they've been paying 2-3 players $50M-$80M for the last decade, leaving them no space to build up a better supporting cast.  Those expensive players soaking up the payroll have therefore not been valuable, since their presence impeded the overall team being better.

Steve Cohen should have put an end to that line of thinking this offseason. The Angels have not been held back one bit because of Trout's paycheck. They have been held back because the Angels front office has been selecting the wrong players for his supporting cast.

The rules for the MVP voting don't mention anything about production per dollar, just how good a player is on offense and defense. I would vote for MVP (and by corollary LVP) based on the rules, not on your alternate criteria.

It's pretty clear to me the least valuable player for the Twins has been Jose Miranda.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Steve Cohen should have put an end to that line of thinking this offseason. The Angels have not been held back one bit because of Trout's paycheck. They have been held back because the Angels front office has been selecting the wrong players for his supporting cast.

The rules for the MVP voting don't mention anything about production per dollar, just how good a player is on offense and defense. I would vote for MVP (and by corollary LVP) based on the rules, not on your alternate criteria.

It's pretty clear to me the least valuable player for the Twins has been Jose Miranda.

Truth. 

[mikelink45]

I love it - a player who signs his contract gets awards, cheers, and boos.  Expectations are high and should be.  Didn't we hear he was the best of the SS free agents?  I like Stark calling out players and I hope it is motivation.  I would love to know Correa's stats before and after last years All-star game.  I think he became the player we expected in the second half.  Can he do it again?  If not he and Buxton and Gallo and Kepler can duke it out in the LVP race. 

[1991]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't winning anything with him and Buxton playing this way. 

And Rendon wouldn't help much either IMHO.

 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

All fine for you to think that, but a player that costs less while still producing does help his team win by leaving payroll space available to get other players.  Part of why the Angels are closing in on a decade since their last playoff appearance is because they've been paying 2-3 players $50M-$80M for the last decade, leaving them no space to build up a better supporting cast.  Those expensive players soaking up the payroll have therefore not been valuable, since their presence impeded the overall team being better.

That's more value to the franchise and its bottom line, not more value on the field. 

[ashbury]

Clickbait headline and article. Moving on ...

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

Kinda harsh.  Correa is trending up. He raised his average 25 points the last three or 4 weeks.  If his average was .260 just 35 more points his line would be down but not out of range of expectations.  His power numbers are still in line with his career.  So let’s give him a break if it’s the injury causing this.  

Is he, or did he just have a 4 hit game against KC? 

His OPS by month:

April .634

May .730

June .735

July .696

Obviously that July number is subject to change, but whichever way you want to slice it (3 weeks or 4 weeks) he has a sub .700 OPS in the time frame and it certainly isn't just the OBP dragging it down. That's not close to being in line with his .825 career mark. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

22 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

...

  I would love to know Correa's stats before and after last years All-star game.  I think he became the player we expected in the second half.  Can he do it again?  If not he and Buxton and Gallo and Kepler can duke it out in the LVP race. 

2022 1^st half and 2^nd half slash lines:

1^st: .279/.353/.450 (.803)

2^nd: .304/.380/.486 (.866)

 

[RJA]

I suggest everyone go back and read Cody Pirkl's article on Correa from June 29.  His WPA is horrible, and he is missing fastballs at his highest rate since 2016.   That is a bad sign.  I, too, have suffered from plantar fasciitis and had pain running for years.  The interesting thing to me is that the plantar fasciitis does not seem to bother him in his fielding, and the planting, pivoting and quick direction changes should be causing him as much or more distress than what he is experiencing in the batter's box.  I think he is missing fastballs either because his bat is slower this year, or he has a mechanical problem with his swing.  I don't think it is plantar fasciitis that is causing the problem.  Whatever it is, I hope he figures it out soon.  Frankly, the only bats showing life belong to Solano and the kids, so LVP on the Twins may have to be a group award.  

[Kummel]

Ouch.  At least Correa still makes plays look easy at shortstop.   

[MABB1959]

Obviously the medical staff in SF and NY saw things the medical staff that the Twins did not.  That money should have been spent on a #1/2 starter and the Twins would have an all star that would easily been the face of the franchise and leader this team is lacking.  They wanted a “big name” but certainly not a leader for the LVP.  It is nice for those who keep saying he will turn it around. 

[Minny505]

8 hours ago, Brandon said:

The 5.9 was a projection for the year not actual.  2.  We are only half way through the season.  3 at his price break even is 3.5 WAR.  He is on track for 2.0. Yes below value but also time enough to close the gap considerably.  And he is trending up.

Absolutely make the complaint he hasn’t performed to standards. Even he would defend your arguments to some degree. But to say least valuable is over doing it by a mile.

Fair point. I think I'd give Tim Anderson and his -1.1 fWAR the award if it based strictly off performance and expectations are not taken into account.

Enrique Hernandez of the BoSox, with -1.3 fWAR, would be my runner up.

I give Anderson the leg up (or is it down?) due to the AL Central being very winnable, meanwhile the BoSox are chasing comparable titans in the AL East.

[Doctor Evil]

Unlike Mr. Buxton, who is providing zero defensive value and has similar offensive stats, Correa seems to be really solid at a premium position.

There is much lower hanging fruit on the bit#&h list.