The Most Encouraging Early-Season Stories for the Twins Have, Sadly, Faded Fast

When Derek Shelton came aboard as manager, he brought with him a new mantra: "hunt the good." The idea was that, in a game often defined by failure, you've got to focus on the successes and wins where you can. 

Foreseeing plenty of failure as I looked ahead to this Twins season, it was a mindset I tried to adopt. I have to remind myself that this site was founded (in 2012) amidst a long stretch of constant losing for the franchise, but during those times we still found ways to enjoy following along. You search for the small positives and appreciate them — especially those with potentially significant future ramifications. 

As we checked in at the one-third point of the season a couple weeks ago, I found several heartening trends worth focusing on. Battling through myriad injuries and setbacks, the Twins were showing resilience. They had just pulled out of a tailspin with seven wins in their past nine games, drawing within a game of .500 and positioning themselves in the wild-card race. 

Since then, they've lost 11 of 15, falling back to eight games below .500 and to a 90-loss pace. Unfortunately, most of the bright spots that I called out at the time have taken a sharp turn downward turn, and in some cases the writing was one the wall even then. Let's check in on the primary contributors and factors that were keeping the Twins relevant.

Fantastic starting rotation: Lately, not so much. Through May 27th, Twins starters ranked ninth in the majors in fWAR; since then they rank 27th. Bailey Ober's charmed run came to and end with a pair of clunkers preceding an IL trip for elbow inflammation. Taj Bradley's performance has tailed off dramatically, as has Connor Prielipp's. Simeon Woods Richardson got DFA'ed.

Austin Martin and Trevor Larnach breakouts: Martin had a .900 OPS at the start of May. Since then he's slashing .216/.285/.288, with a .440 OPS in his past 24 games. Larnach is hitting .189 with a .610 OPS since May 27th.

Ryan Jeffers on track for a career year: He had just gotten injured, and will still be out for several more weeks. When he turns he'll be just months from free agency, and a possible trade candidate.

Shockingly effective bullpen: They were on a great run in late May, inching upward on the leaderboard after an expectedly rough start to the year. With Luis García and Justin Topa recently jettisoned, there was some hope that some of level of success would sustain. Nope. Since May 27th, Minnesota's bullpen ranks 26th in baseball with a 6.16 ERA and 28th in WPA.

Derek Shelton resonance: I said at the time that I was lukewarm on this vibe because the Twins had plenty of hot streaks over the past couple of years under Rocco Baldelli, and they were ultimately outweighed by prolonged losing spells. So far that's been the case here too, and in fact with the way the team is trending — outscored by 45 runs during this latest 15-game stretch — you could argue that things are starting to go off the rails under his watch.

So what positives remain? Frightfully few. Byron Buxton continues to absolutely crush when he's in the lineup and has been easily the biggest highlight on the team. Joe Ryan keeps turning in excellent outings to fuel his trade value. Kody Clemens has been one of the few red-hot hitters in the lineup over the past couple weeks, though it says a lot that he ranks third among Twins position players in fWAR as a journeyman role player.

Slim pickings outside of a few select players, none of whom are really positioned as future building blocks. Then again, if this team has reminded us of anything, it's how many ups and downs can take place over the course of an MLB season. Any of the downward-trending guys mentioned above — Martin, Larnach, Bradley, Prielipp — could do an about-face and resume their ascent at any time. Royce Lewis is back and has taken some good swings. Moreover, help is on the way.

Alan Roden is rehabbing from injury in Triple-A and could join the big-league club sometime soon. Ditto Mick Abel, whose return would do much to jolt a staggered rotation. Fellow 2026 deadline acquisition Hendry Mendez has been on a tear for the Saints and is a candidate for a second-half promotion, if the Twins can find room for him.

One guy they'll have no trouble finding room for is Kaelen Culpepper, the top prospect who is excelling at Triple-A and in line for an imminent call-up. He's become the main source of optimism and excitement for demoralized Twins fans, although as I wrote earlier this week, that places a pretty heavy burden on his shoulders. If he comes up and struggles it won't be any kind of indictment on his future, but it will be another drop in the bucket of 2026 malaise. 

We'll see if the Twins and their key players have another burst of resilience in them. If not, we could be in for a dreary second half. Last year's team went 34-61 after this date. If this year's club were to play at the same pace the rest of the way they'd finish 64-98. Only three Twins teams have lost more games (2016, 2011, 1982). Gonna be hard to hunt much good out of that.