The Twins Made a Third Base Mistake

[Cody Christie]

One year ago, Jose Miranda was in the midst of a strong rookie campaign. It made it easier to deal away another third-base prospect, but now that decision looks like a mistake.

Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Entering the 2023 season, the Twins expected Jose Miranda to be part of the club's long-term plans. He was the team's minor league player of the year in 2021 and showed some solid offensive skills in his rookie season. Unfortunately, the season's start couldn't have gone much worse for Miranda. He struggled mightily on both sides of the ball before being demoted to Triple-A. In 35 games, he hit .220/.275/.318 (.593) with four doubles and three home runs. It was a disastrous start for a club lacking offensive production up and down the line-up. 

Miranda struggled initially following the demotion by going 8-for-54 (.148 BA) without an extra-base hit. It can be easy for players to struggle when demoted, especially with the expectations surrounding Miranda entering the season. However, he started making more consistent contact and drawing a few walks. In his next 26 games, he slashed .308/.378/.467 (.846) with a 17-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His power numbers were lower than what he produced in the past, but Royce Lewis' injury put him back in the big leagues. Miranda was the only infield option on the 40-man roster, so he gets the next couple of months to prove he can contribute to the Twins this season.

Trading away prospects is a complicated endeavor. Some young players can never put it all together at the big-league level, while others obtain instant levels of success. Teams must trade away pieces of value to obtain other players with perceived value. Spencer Steer saw his prospect stock rose significantly last season, but now it's hard for fans not to imagine what he would mean to the Twins line-up.

The Twins traded Steer to the Reds at last year's trade deadline as part of the package for Tyler Mahle. He got his feet wet in the big leagues at the end of last season (72 OPS+), but the team thought highly enough of him to hand him the starting third base job in 2023. His season didn't start ideally, but he's figured it out offensively after a slow start. In his first 37 games, he posted a respectable .758 OPS, but over his next 47 games, he combined for a .977 OPS. During that stretch, he is tied for 17th among MLB hitters in fWAR, with Willi Castro being the highest-ranked Twins hitter (54th). Steer has yet to carry the Reds' offense, but his value is impossible to ignore for a club sitting near the top of the NL Central.

Miranda recently turned 25, which is when many players either make it or break it. He needs to produce strong offensive numbers to provide the team value because his defensive value is minimal. The Twins have Alex Kirilloff and Byron Buxton penciled in at first base and DH, so Miranda needs to produce enough to stick at the hot corner. Injuries can always change the line-up equation, but Miranda is beginning to have more limited opportunities. Miranda's outlook has changed significantly over the last 12 months, and things aren't going to get easier in the future. 

Looking to the future, it's hard to see where Miranda fits into the team's long-term plans. Royce Lewis already passed him on the organization's third base depth chart, and Brooks Lee is just a little behind. Miranda must find a way to consistently produce power numbers that make him impossible to keep out of the line-up. Otherwise, the Twins will need to go in a different direction. 

Steer was an unproven commodity at the time of the trade, and Miranda was thriving at the big-league level. The front office knew Steer had the potential to be a solid performer, but the Twins thought Miranda's production would match Steer's or be even better. The Twins made the decision that looked right at the time by trading from a position of depth for a position of need. Unfortunately, it looks like the team picked the wrong third baseman. 

What can Miranda do over the next two months to help his long-term value? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Mike Sixel]

Good god. Miranda was a top prospect. At some point you have to trust them. This is a ridiculous article. 

[Squirrel]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Good god. Miranda was a top prospect. At some point you have to trust them. This is a ridiculous article. 

Agreed!

[Dman]

Miranda looked like an elite bat last year.  He had crushed AAA pitching even more than Steer when he was at that level.  No one I can remember wanted to trade Miranda instead of Steer at the deadline.  Even Correa was against the idea because we all thought Miranda was going to have a special bat.

Hindsight is 20/20. This whole offense has fallen off a cliff this year.  Has to a be problem with approach IMO and Miranda has been pretty much unplayable all year as well.  Still he has a contact bat and he has been successful before I think we just need to give it time and hopefully he comes out an even better player than before.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In my opinion, all that Miranda needed back in April/May was a few more days off sprinkled in, or some run at DH, to not let him get inside his own head too far.

Also, last season all the writers wrote glowingly about how valuable Miranda was, rookie of the month in July, etc. 

[weitz41]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Good god. Miranda was a top prospect. At some point you have to trust them. This is a ridiculous article. 

100% agree with this.

Opening day starter to mistake in 4 months. Jeez let's give the guy a little rope.

Time to chime in about Akili Badoo anyone?

[Fatbat]

Twins have just dealt too many prospects in bad tradea. Miranda will be fine once he figures it out.

[Linus]

I’m not a fan of our FO but nobody would have traded Miranda instead of Steer one year ago. 

[Guest]

What does Miranda have to do?  Hit and field.  Next....

[Eris]

Both Steer and Miranda are currently poor defensively at 3B. Not sure that either one is a long term solution at 3B. A mistake the Twins made was not calling up Steer to get a better evaluation of his skills. 

[Schmoeman5]

Just being realistic. But even if Steer was still a Twin he would have started the season with St. Paul based on Miranda's 2022 season. So Miranda with his struggles was demoted to AAA to make room for Lewis. When Lewis went down it may have opened a spot for Steer. But he wouldn't have had the opportunity to showcase his ability like he's had with the Reds. Hind sight is always 20/20. JMO.

[USAFChief]

I'd say the bigger mistake was who they traded FOR, rather than who they traded away.

 

[Brandon27]

They should had kept him at first and put farmer ,Lewis or signedor trade for veteran third basemen 

[Lefty74]

It may be that Steer has benefited from a hitting approach that is different than Miranda’s. I’ve watched a few Reds highlights and the batters seem to be loose and confident. When I watch the Twins I see just the opposite. Not sure how to instill that confidence in Miranda or other Twins batters but need it for sure!

[Heistyman]

The Twins traded perceived depth when they actually didn't know what they had in Steer yet.  Maybe it's me but it seems like the Twins do this often.  I wish they would wait on trading prospects till they know what they have.  

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, Heistyman said:

The Twins traded perceived depth when they actually didn't know what they had in Steer yet.  Maybe it's me but it seems like the Twins do this often.  I wish they would wait on trading prospects till they know what they have.  

If they do that, and the rookie is a dud, he has little value.

[CRF]

It's a bit too early to give up on Miranda. Give him a little more time, and he could turn it around. The whole damn team isn't hitting, so it's not like he's all by himself. I don't think his bat is as big an issue as his glove is. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Heistyman said:

The Twins traded perceived depth when they actually didn't know what they had in Steer yet.  Maybe it's me but it seems like the Twins do this often.  I wish they would wait on trading prospects till they know what they have.  

And then trade the bad ones? It doesn't work that way. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Reading between the lines, the real point of this article seems to be the inability of our system to complete the transition of young prospects into true major leaguers fulfilling their ultimate potential.

For example, no one could realistically argue that Steer was a better prospect than Miranda based on minor league production,  Yet, somehow, the Reds turned Steer into an above average major league 3rd baseman, while Miranda continues to struggle to even be in the bigs. Who bears responsibility for that?

Some fellow TDers might claim that sometimes prospects just “figure it out” - Steer may certainly be an example of that.  However, there does appear to be a pattern of players under this regime who do not either successfully make the transition from St. Paul to Target Field, or once here, reach their potential.  Let’s look at the list: Kepler (stagnated and declined), Sano (see Kepler), Kiriloff (sorry, he’s not yet solidified nor even close yet to what might have been expected based on his minor league performance), Larnach, Rooker (do we care if he’s cooled off; he’s playing in the ASG for Pete’s sake) Miranda, Gordon, Lewis (yes, injuries, but it is what it is), and even Buxton (see Lewis) Wallner and Celestino could eventually make this list too. Polanco, Arraez and Jeffers are the best examples of position players who have or are fulfilling their potential as big leaguers.

It wasn’t the trade; more likely it’s our system managing the transition of prospects to the bigs and their continued growth.  For a small to mid market team like the Twins, it’s a disaster if that is not a strength and it should be one of the top responsibilities/priorities of the coaching staff.

[RpR]

15 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Reading between the lines, the real point of this article seems to be the inability of our system to complete the transition of young prospects into true major leaguers fulfilling their ultimate potential.

For example, no one could realistically argue that Steer was a better prospect than Miranda based on minor league production,  Yet, somehow, the Reds turned Steer into an above average major league 3rd baseman, while Miranda continues to struggle to even be in the bigs. Who bears responsibility for that?

Some fellow TDers might claim that sometimes prospects just “figure it out” - Steer may certainly be an example of that.  However, there does appear to be a pattern of players under this regime that do not either successfully make the transition from St. Paul to Target Field, or once here, reach their potential.  Let’s look at the list: Kepler (stagnated and declined), Sano (see Kepler), Kiriloff (sorry, he’s not yet solidified nor even close yet to what might have been expected based on his minor league performance), Larnach, Rooker (do we care if he’s cooled off; he’s playing in the ASG for Pete’s sake) Miranda, Gordon, Lewis (yes, injuries, but it is what it is), and even Buxton (see Lewis) Wallner and Celestino could eventually make this list too. Polanco, Arraez and Jeffers are the best examples of position players who have or are fulfilling their potential as big leaguers.

It wasn’t the trade; more likely it’s our system managing the transition of prospects to the bigs and their continued growth.  For a small to mid market team like the Twins, it’s a disaster if that is not a strength and it should be one of the top responsibilities/priorities of the coaching staff.

You only are speaking of their bats,  there gloves are just as importent and the lack of fielding ability is going to be the death of many..

If any of the Twins rookies had the hitting and running ability of Elly De La Cruz, it would be a different story.

[lukeduke1980]

20 minutes ago, Lefty74 said:

It may be that Steer has benefited from a hitting approach that is different than Miranda’s. I’ve watched a few Reds highlights and the batters seem to be loose and confident. When I watch the Twins I see just the opposite. Not sure how to instill that confidence in Miranda or other Twins batters but need it for sure!

Was going to say the same - what are chances Steer would be struggling with the mistake hunting Twins approach 

[DFlow]

This feels like another Popkins issue. We have too many hitters having career worst batting years for this to not be attributed to the offensive philosophy.
 

Miranda ascended to the Twins with high contact rates and a compact approach. His swing this year looks absolutely wild, which appears to be the FO trying to unlock more power. I’m fine with FO making swing or pitching adjustments, but not to the hitters approach. We need to be making the best hitter/pitcher based on the persons unique skills rather than trying to change who they are. I’m just worried if we screwed up Miranda’s development here.

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And then trade the bad ones? It doesn't work that way. 

To be fair, though, it's PRECISELY the job of the people evaluating talent, at all levels, to be right more often than wrong. And I think it's damn tough to make an argument in the Twins favor on this critical job.

You can't name very many real success stories, particularly hitters. 

[TopGunn#22]

To add to the disappointment, Steer has actually played some games in LF this year for the Reds.  He's not a Gold Glove LF, but imagine his bat in our lineup playing either 3B, 2B or LF.  Miranda is limited to 1B and 3B and is considerably challenged at both.  He's a future DH if he can become a .270 hitter with an OB% of .340 and gap power that provides 15-20 HR in a typical year.  He's a LONG way from that right now but it wouldn't be impossible for him to reach this level.  He will never be a guy who can play in the field regularly.  Miranda has none of the versatility that Steer has and  I have more confidence in Julien at 2B than I do in Miranda at either 1B or 3B.  

I don't see a future for Miranda in Minnesota if Buxton is more DH than CF.  He's not going to beat out Kirilloff at 1B.  he's not going to beat out Lewis at 3B.  And he's nowhere near the prospect or player that Brooks Lee is, and will be.  Miranda is one top 20 prospect along with Larnach that I would consider dealing depending on who I was getting back.  Miranda's current BBT-Value is 8.9.  Josh Hader's is 8.3.  If I could sign Hader for 3 more years (age 30-33 seasons) I'd make that deal one-for-one.  When you look at the prospects in our system now and the distinct possibility we add some good talent starting tonight, Miranda's stock has fallen for a reason and he's likely to be passed up by several more prospects.  

Who would have the bigger positive impact on the Twins for the rest of 2023...Josh Hader or Jose Miranda?  Who would have a great positive impact for 2024, 2025 and 2026 if Hader was resigned?  It's Hader in a landslide.  With all the money/dead weight that should come of this Twins roster next off season the Twins could easily afford Hader.  Why would the Padres let him go?  Because they see themselves falling further behind the Dodgers and the D-Backs passing them by.  Even the Giants are ahead of them with probably half the payroll.  San Diego needs a reset.  

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

To be fair, though, it's PRECISELY the job of the people evaluating talent, at all levels, to be right more often than wrong. And I think it's damn tough to make an argument in the Twins favor on this critical job.

You can't name very many real success stories, particularly hitters. 

No idea what that has to do with what I quoted.

I've called for their heads, so I'm certainly not here to defend them.

[roger]

Not certain what to think of Miranda.  I do know that the trade did not work well for the Twins.  Had Mahle been pitching as advertised, wouldn't look that bad.  Biggest problem may be how the Twins evaluate players they are trading for.  Too many come over and immediately get injured.

Will second the many comments above related to how poorly too many young prospects are hitting for the Twins.  At some point, someone has to acknowledge that their coaching/hitting plan ain't working.  Don't know who has the power and/or ability to change it, but at some point young Pohlad has to asks some tough questions and if no one else will act, he must do so.

[RJA]

I think the issue is not a Miranda versus Steer question.  Rather, the issue is the blunder the FO committed in making the two deadline trades last year, one for Mahle who was injured when they traded for him, and has provided nothing to this team the past two years, and the other for Lopez who had one brief period of success after years of being "meh."  Giving up Steer and CES for an injured pitcher is crazy, regardless of whether Miranda was regarded as a budding star or not.  The same could be said for the Lopez trade as Povich sure looks to be a decent major league starter in the making.  Lopez may turn things back around, so that trade might improve, but as of now it looks "sus."  I agree with Dman that the hitting has been atrocious thus far as nobody anticipated that Correa would perform so poorly, Polanco would be unable to perform, and Miranda would regress so sharply.  But, the unfortunate trade with Cincy cost them dearly by taking away a potential replacement and getting nothing in return.

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No idea what that has to do with what I quoted.

 

It's literally their job to trade away the bad ones.

The trick, of course, is to differentiate between the bad ones and ones before it's obvious. 

They haven't distinguished themselves, IYAM

 

[ashbury]

FalVine might want to brush up on their Seinfeld lore, and maybe take it to heart.

George : Yeah, I should do the opposite, I should.

Jerry : If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

It's literally their job to trade away the bad ones.

The trick, of course, is to differentiate between the bad ones and ones before it's obvious. 

They haven't distinguished themselves, IYAM

 

It's not their job to only trade bad players. No one would ever trade with them again. The post said they should keep all the prospects until they were certain which were the good ones ... That's impossible, not even Tampa does that.