Reevaluating the Twins’ Long-Term Third Base Plan

This year it is going to be a 3 horse race between Miranda, Farmer and Lewis - as long as Polanco stays healthy.  We have Polanco for one more year,  but the near to medium term outlook for players looks to be 3rd  Lee,  SS Correa, 2nd Lewis, 1st Kiriloff or some combination of those players.  If Miranda outperforms another player fine.  However I think thats why the Twins felt comfortable dealing Steer last year for Mahle.  We have ample options for the infield positions,  and if someone fails we have backups.  You have Julien, Helman, Miranda,  possibly Martin or Severino that look like they have potential to be a big league player or fill in.  That also doesn't consider the other higher drafted short stop prospects at the lower levels.   

I don't think there is much to re-evaluate here, just a continued progression.

Miranda's 2022 bat earned him an opportunity this year, but there was always a question about his ability to stay at 3B.  Farmer was brought in both as a stopgap SS possibility (before the Correa signing) and as a backup plan for Miranda.

The Twins have currently have a surplus of upper-end middle infield prospects.  Logic dictates that one or more of them will see some heavy reps at 3B to allow some positional flexibility in the future.  The discussion of Correa to 3B started the moment he signed here (as he was willing to move to 3B for the Mets).

Miranda should not be written out of the story yet, MLB is littered with quality players that bounced between AAA and the majors before sticking.  The hope is that he figures it out. 

It will be difficult to displace Farmer at 3B this year if he keeps on hitting like he has since his return.

Right now I'm high on Will Castro as the replacement SS, I think that he's deceptively good in the OF & IF as needed due to his strong arm & speed. And I think his bat will improve too. I hope that he doesn't get demoted when Lewis comes up. Castro also had a great spring training which earned him the roster spot.

Maybe Miranda will have a chance to platoon at 1B next year depending on his bat. He doesn't have a lot of fielding options.  Miranda will just need to suffer in AAA until he can prove that he can perform at the plate at his new weight.  Maybe last year he was picking up the slack for Buck being injured. Not sure how else to explain his struggles this year.

Both Gordon & Buck were sent down to AAA multiple times over years, so to see Miranda stay there until ready & needed is not a big deal. It's just money out of Miranda's pocket.

Miranda's contract pays him $727K this year while Castro is earning $1.8 mil and their fielding shows their difference. Either Miranda hits or he's stuck in AAA. 

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I don't think there is much to re-evaluate here, just a continued progression.

Miranda's 2022 bat earned him an opportunity this year, but there was always a question about his ability to stay at 3B.  Farmer was brought in both as a stopgap SS possibility (before the Correa signing) and as a backup plan for Miranda.

The Twins have currently have a surplus of upper-end middle infield prospects.  Logic dictates that one or more of them will see some heavy reps at 3B to allow some positional flexibility in the future.  The discussion of Correa to 3B started the moment he signed here (as he was willing to move to 3B for the Mets).

Miranda should not be written out of the story yet, MLB is littered with quality players that bounced between AAA and the majors before sticking.  The hope is that he figures it out. 

I think this is right. Twins were hoping Miranda could handle 3B as a mostly every day player this season, but had contingencies in place with Farmer, Castro, and even Solano this year if necessary, with Royce Lewis as a potential option once he got healthy, and Brooks Lee coming up on the rail.

Miranda stumbling a bit doesn't really change that much: Farmer has stepped in, and it looks like they're likely to go to Lewis if he continues to kick rehab in the butt...or back to Miranda if he turns his season around.

Next season they'll be looking at someone from the Lewis/Miranda/Lee grouping to be the primary 3B, especially if Polanco stays or Julien is looked at a reasonable 2B option.

2025 they're going to be hoping that either Lewis or Lee have settled in at 3B, or Miranda stepped back up and seized the job. and run that forward for the next several years, until maybe Correa needs to shift down to 3B.

The legion of infield prospects we're moving through the system has created a lot of depth (and it's why they were very comfortable dealing Steer)

3rd base is a cloudy position for the Twins. In a good way though.

I think Miranda will get the spot back this season. Long term 3rd/1st/DH platoon guy or worst-case 1st guy off the bench.

Long-term Lee seems like the most likely.

Julien, that seems pretty unlikely.

Lewis, I'm HOPING he will be the Twins version Mookie Betts. OF/2nd/SS.

Correa, hopefully by the back 1/2 of his contract he can be an all-star 2nd baseman, with Lewis taking over for him or someone we haven't signed/drafted yet taking SS.

Lee is my choice, but I think it'll be late 2025 before that happens.

By the end of 2024, Lewis, Lee, Rodriguez and Julien all should be in the lineup on a daily basis.  But so should Kiriloff, Miranda, and Larnach if all these players develop as they should. So with CC at SS, Vasquez/Jeffers at C, and BB at DH, that’s ten players for nine spots.  Miranda’s best fit for substantive playing time with this cadre is probably at 1B. Kiriloff and Larnach are then our corner outfielders.  Can Rodriguez play CF? If so, our “everyday” lineup might look like this:

1B - Miranda, 2B - Lewis, SS - CC, 3B - Lee, RF - Kiriloff, CF - Roderiguez, LF - Larnach, C- Vasquez/Jeffers, DH - Buxton. Bench options: Julien, Gordon, Wallner, Martin and Miller. This is a pretty cheap, very flexible lineup.  

If Rodriguez cannot play CF, then Lewis may be more suited for it of all the players we want starting every day.  That would move Kiriloff to 1B, Julien to 2B, and Miranda to a bench option.  

Miranda had a shoulder soreness enough to keep him out of the WBC. It may have messed up his swing. It also may be that the opposition figured out what not to throw to him. The power is down, the BABIP is down. He might not be seeing any of the pitches he can crush

When Lewis finishes his 20 day rehab he is going to be activated and will play.  Kid is special, he won’t be sitting on the bench.

For those of you who missed it, his agent made an interesting comment last week.  He said he hoped the Twins would limit his play to short and third.  He went on to list several reasons it would be risky to play him in the outfield.  I don’t remember them, but they made a ton of sense.  You can bet the Twins have been made aware of this and he won’t be playing other positions.  At least this year.

I just don’t see Miranda or Julian ever being good enough defensively to be a regular fielder. 

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I wouldn't think they have a very solid plan at all at this point. Buxton's future in CF, Polanco's future with the team, who of the young guys perform, and how long Correa can stick at SS all play differing roles in what 3B ends of looking like. Could go a lot of different ways. Just nice to finally have a few decent options on how to mix and match if multiple of the kids work out.

Yeah, IF there is any sort of plan it's definitely not a solid one at this point. Too many cooks in the kitchen and too many other variables that  can change plans quickly.  But at least we will have several options, so third base won't be a position I'm going to worry about in the near future. I just don't think Miranda will be the placeholder there a year from now. 

The Buxton experiment as I keep calling it to myself, truly has created a trickle down effect of position players.  Still not buying that can't play CF mantra spewed by FO, as clearly they didn't extend him handsomely to be just the DH.

With that being said, I'm not sold on Gordon as part of the future plans to man CF consistently on daily basis.  Taylor has acclimated himself very nicely in that role. Come Mid-June, if Buxton isn't playing some in OF, then Lewis has to be looked at again there.  

Farmer is more than capable of staying at 3rd to Lewis if ready can spell him on his needed days off.  Castro has surprised me some here lately and gives the team a multi-position backup.  

Miranda is the wild card and only for his hitting if he gets back to last year.  Off-season he would be a nice trade bait option because he is no matter what a liability in the field.

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Interesting. Do you have a link or remember how you heard that comment?

No, but recall reading it.  Most likely the Strib.  Probably late last week or the weekend.  Think it was shortly after he began his rehab.

13 hours ago, roger said:

When Lewis finishes his 20 day rehab he is going to be activated and will play.  Kid is special, he won’t be sitting on the bench.

For those of you who missed it, his agent made an interesting comment last week.  He said he hoped the Twins would limit his play to short and third.  He went on to list several reasons it would be risky to play him in the outfield.  I don’t remember them, but they made a ton of sense.  You can bet the Twins have been made aware of this and he won’t be playing other positions.  At least this year.

 

I saw that quote too.  And I agree that Lewis will be recalled when he is eligible to come off of the 60 day dl.  The Twins might need Miranda after the injuries yesterday, but that is short term.  His fielding is not acceptable at the major league level.  Unless AK is a bust (which I happily doubt), Miranda doesn't have a position to play.  Maybe a utility 1st base/DH option. The Twins have a good problem with the fine young infielders.  Oh, and for the love of shaboom, please dump Pagan.  I know, I know...off topic!

The Twins have a good problem with Lee, Lewis, and Julien. But unlike some posting here, I think it would be foolish to use Lewis as a so called super sub, playing infield and outfield just to keep him in the lineup. Once Lewis is called up play him at third and have him spell Correa at short. We already saw the result of playing Lewis out of position in the outfield, so no more of that. Correa is an elite defender and should be able to maintain that for a few years. So that means Lewis at third. When Lee’s bat  is ready he can play second, short, or third and DH. No one posting here knows which infield position is better for Lewis and Lee. The coaching staff will sort that out when the time comes. Julian’s bat look legit so I can see him DHing and spelling at third and second base, maybe and even try him at first to keep his bat in the lineup. 

19 hours ago, sun said:

Right now I'm high on Will Castro as the replacement SS, I think that he's deceptively good in the OF & IF as needed due to his strong arm & speed. And I think his bat will improve too. I hope that he doesn't get demoted when Lewis comes up. Castro also had a great spring training which earned him the roster spot.

 

I'm pleased with the job that Castro has done as a utility player, but I really don't get the love I've seen here and there.

He's not a good hitter--he has a .624 OPS in line with his career average.  Now, they signed him to be a back-up utility player and to OPS around .650 and steal a few bases, so he's basically been what they hoped for.  But in a healthy roster he really has no place.

There's no where he can play that Lewis couldn't with significantly more upside.  Now they probably will end up keeping Lewis out of the outfield entirely, so he has that positional flexibility, but you really don't want his bat backing up a corner.

It sounds like Gordon will have to miss some time so you will probably get your wish with him holding down Gordon's role even after Lewis is activated.  He's a guy that should be easily shuttled to AAA if they have better options though.

10 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Left fielders, both of them. I’m not joking either. Maybe one of them will take to it well enough to play right. They can be in the 1B, DH, OF rotation if they hit. If not they will both struggle for playing time even on less stacked rosters. I’m sure both of them can play left as well as Gordon was playing center and that will be enough if they hit. We cannot have 30 grade defense at the prime positions.

I’m convinced Lewis is the primary 3rd baseman when he comes up. There is no reason to move him anymore and we’ve seen the risk it brings.  From both the team and player/agent side it’s the right move.  Farmer can fill the role he’s designed for.  Lewis/Lee/Polo is a future discussion.  Let’s get Lewis settled and productive first.  We are all tantalized with the kid but he needs a lot of game time to make up for the last 4 years of minimal game action. There will be struggles but he can still glove while he adapts. The less we move him around the better. 

This is the first I've herd/read of a suggestion to transition Miranda to LF. Is that really an option? Have a hard time picturing him lumbering around out there.......

Buxton needs to start playing in the outfield, That would open up DH for somebody like Miranda or Julian and potentially  improve the outfield and lineup. Lewis at 3rd with Buxton in center and Miranda at DH sounds like a good option to me. Taylor is a nice backup but is not exciting as a regular center fielder. Gordan should not have been playing as much as he was before getting hurt. 

So many unknowns.

The Twins will likely move on from Kepler. Larnach and Kirilloff both getting at bats is great for those two. So the Twins have to figure out who will play centerfield, the longer term status of guys like Celestino and Wallner, and what to do with Martin.

Where to play Julien, Martin, Lewis, Lee and maybe one-or-two other guys by 2025. That is the question. Keeping Polanco MAY happen, which further screws things up for another season. Of course, that depends on where the Twins finish in not only the standings, but do in playoffs.

But the NEW guys, how many will just get a taste before being called upon to contribute bigtime in 2024. If you wish to stay competitive, you have to balance the new with the old (and the free agent).

Miranda, who I was hoping was going to be a solid, say, .260-.275 guy with 20+ homers and could move into the longer-term DH spot, with his plus being that he COULD play first base or third base. Well, have to wait and see on this.

16 hours ago, roger said:

When Lewis finishes his 20 day rehab he is going to be activated and will play.  Kid is special, he won’t be sitting on the bench.

For those of you who missed it, his agent made an interesting comment last week.  He said he hoped the Twins would limit his play to short and third.  He went on to list several reasons it would be risky to play him in the outfield.  I don’t remember them, but they made a ton of sense.  You can bet the Twins have been made aware of this and he won’t be playing other positions.  At least this year.

 

Thank you Roger for stating this. I've been lambasted for suggesting Lewis not to play especially in the OF. Lewis will play anywhere you put him. I'm glad he has an agent who is smart enough to advise the Twins on where they should play him because the Twins will play him anywhere they feel like. I'd like to see that agent statement.

I like to see Brook Lee at 3B  because quickness & sure glove long term & Lewis at 2B because of his range. If Correa gets moved off SS he'd move to 3B because of his arm.

30 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Castro isn't better than a healthy Royce Lewis, but I would say he's a better and more versatile utility player than a healthy Nick Gordon. Gordon is likely headed for the 60-day IL, either today or when Lewis is activated and I would anticipate that Castro sticks on the major league team. I do agree that Willi Castro shouldn't be playing close to every day given his hitting stats in over three years of big league play, but he has filled in at second, short, third, left, center and right and to my knowledge he's done a decent job at each position. Gordon was shaky enough last year at second and short that the team brought in a backup shortstop and he has those decided left-right splits.

 

I don't think Gordon has a lot more upside than Castro but he does have a bit more IMO.  Castro also has an option year left, so I would still send Castro to AAA in favor of Gordon if the lineup was ever healthy enough to make it a decision.  They aren't missing out on any upside in sending Castro to AAA is my main point.

They might not ever get to the point health-wise where it becomes a decision.  If he retains his option all year then I would probably be fine keeping him around for the same role next year too.  For me he is sort of a prototypical 14th position player though, and a decent part of the reason he was worth paying the arbitration salary for is the fact that he can easily be shuttled back and forth if necessary.