Rumor: Twins Interested in Michael Wacha

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hayes and Gleeman of The Athletic have reported the Twins are possibly in pursuit of Michael Wacha.

The 31-year-old right-hander bounced back nicely with the Red Sox in 2022 with a 127 ERA+ but due to his lack of strikeout ability, his 4.14 FIP mark trailed his results by a large margin. Wacha, a long-time St Louis Cardinal, was a solid starter through 2018, after which point he began to struggle, posting three consecutive well-below-average seasons. Weirdly, not long after his ERA began to rise, he cut way down on his walk rate. His decline falls in line with a drop in his fastball velocity; at his peak, he had a 94-95mph fastball that has dropped into the 93mph range over the past several seasons.

Wacha would likely be available on a one-year deal, two at most.

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[chpettit19]

No, thank you.

[SF Twins Fan]

Right off the scrap heap. 

[Parfigliano]

Solid starter through 2018 then steady decline.  Same Twins pitching staff plan...or lack of plan.

[Finlander]

Twins want to corner the market on #4 starters!

Actually, he doesn't seem to give up a ton of dingers, he's a pretty good ground ball pitcher. We'd better have a shortstop in place though if we would rely on Wacha to be effective with this team.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

I'd rather have Wacha than Bundy or Archer......

[DJL44]

I think he'd be a great candidate for a bullpen conversion at this point in his career.

[nicksaviking]

Gross. Ober, Varland, SWR, Winder. All better options. A groundball pitcher with this infield defense? Why? Not to mention he lost a MPH off of his fastball last year. Top of the rotation arms or AAAA break-glass-in-case-of-emergency starters that can roost in St. Paul. That's it.

Zero reason to pay these zero upside vets to take a rotation spot away from the young players except that they want to look like they're actually spending money. It's too late, the good players are all gone. Don't make the team worse trying to window dress the mistakes you made earlier this year.

[IndianaTwin]

 

In this order, here's lines on Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda...

2022        33   MIN     AL                                           0      0                                           0.0   (did not pitch, recovering from Tommy John surgery...)

Wacha averaged 5.5 innings per start (higher than any Twin), with a higher ERA+ than any Twins starter. 

Even if they stay healthy, there's going to be innings limits on the rookies and Maeda.

As DJL suggests, Wacha could be a relief option (the long guy folks are clamoring for?), but he could also easily take Maeda's spot and make Maeda that long guy. If they are so fortunate to have them all healthy, I could also see them going the 6-starter route.

So yes, please, on Wacha. 

[MMMordabito]

6 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Wacha averaged 5.5 innings per start (higher than any Twin)

If signed, Rocco will pull him back down to earth. 5.5? That's crazy!

[jorgenswest]

18 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

 

In this order, here's lines on Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda...

2022        33   MIN     AL                                           0      0                                           0.0   (did not pitch, recovering from Tommy John surgery...)

Wacha averaged 5.5 innings per start (higher than any Twin), with a higher ERA+ than any Twins starter. 

Even if they stay healthy, there's going to be innings limits on the rookies and Maeda.

As DJL suggests, Wacha could be a relief option (the long guy folks are clamoring for?), but he could also easily take Maeda's spot and make Maeda that long guy. If they are so fortunate to have them all healthy, I could also see them going the 6-starter route.

So yes, please, on Wacha. 

Are we buying high? Projections are often based on three years. How do the three year comparisons look?

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

 

In this order, here's lines on Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda...

2022        33   MIN     AL                                           0      0                                           0.0   (did not pitch, recovering from Tommy John surgery...)

Wacha averaged 5.5 innings per start (higher than any Twin), with a higher ERA+ than any Twins starter. 

Even if they stay healthy, there's going to be innings limits on the rookies and Maeda.

As DJL suggests, Wacha could be a relief option (the long guy folks are clamoring for?), but he could also easily take Maeda's spot and make Maeda that long guy. If they are so fortunate to have them all healthy, I could also see them going the 6-starter route.

So yes, please, on Wacha. 

Most 30-year-old pitchers don't suddenly find a career turnaround after 3 DFA worthy seasons. Especially ones who saw their velocity decrease. I think 2022 was more likely the outlier than 2019, 2020 and 2021 were.

[Einheri]

Well… if he's cheap enough, go ahead.  No sense otherwise.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

 

In this order, here's lines on Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda...

2022        33   MIN     AL                                           0      0                                           0.0   (did not pitch, recovering from Tommy John surgery...)

Wacha averaged 5.5 innings per start (higher than any Twin), with a higher ERA+ than any Twins starter. 

Even if they stay healthy, there's going to be innings limits on the rookies and Maeda.

As DJL suggests, Wacha could be a relief option (the long guy folks are clamoring for?), but he could also easily take Maeda's spot and make Maeda that long guy. If they are so fortunate to have them all healthy, I could also see them going the 6-starter route.

So yes, please, on Wacha. 

2020-2022 stats in the same order of Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda...

Obviously Ryan and Maeda only had 2 seasons in the last 3, but that presents a very different outlook than simply showing his 1 rebound season of 2022. If you don't like counting 2020 as a season we can go back to 2019, but that makes his ERA go up to 4.56.

[Doctor Gast]

Just resist that crazy urge & say no.

[bloggymcbloggerson]

1 hour ago, SF Twins Fan said:

Right off the scrap heap. 

 lot of people crapping on this don't realize he was a perfectly decent pitcher last year. i mean honestly he can't make people forget that they really could use a top-of-the-rotation guy, but let's not act like the twins are flush with guys who would easily match his 3.3 bWAR from last season in under 130 innings. it takes a village; don't get mad when they fill it with townspeople 

[Beast]

This move makes sense if you were aggressive in the free agent/trade markets and were actively trying to win.

Commit to the rebuild, or commit to winning.  This middling crap is just an attempt to con fans into thinking you did something so attendance doesn’t tank and manipulate service time of guys like SWR/Varland.

Just grow a spine and commit to something, for God’s sake.  This is why we always suck.

It is possible they still make a big splash in the trade market, so we’ll see.  But, if we get to Spring Training and they’ve done nothing but Gallo, Wacha, and some other crap….they deserve every bit of criticism they get.  

[Brandon]

This move is fine as either a 1- or 2-year deal.  We have 3 free agent starters next offseason.  While it would be nice to keep one of the three it's not likely if they have good seasons.  I think Wacha can be a serviceable starter.  They should pay him more off of his FIP then ERA.  But a 2 year 24-30 million won't break the bank.  

I don't really see the need for another starter as we already have 5 maybe 6 starters for next season (Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda maybe Winder), other than to give our prospects more time to develop and have more depth.  Of SWR, Varland, Balazovich, Winder, Ober, and Paddack, we need at least 2 of these guys to be established as a rotation arm by next season.  preferably 3.  

Hopefully Prielipp will be close to MLB ready after next season as well.  Hopefully he is in AA at the end of the season.  

[CRF]

Nah.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Gross. Ober, Varland, SWR, Winder. All better options. A groundball pitcher with this infield defense? Why? Not to mention he lost a MPH off of his fastball last year. Top of the rotation arms or AAAA break-glass-in-case-of-emergency starters that can roost in St. Paul. That's it.

Zero reason to pay these zero upside vets to take a rotation spot away from the young players except that they want to look like they're actually spending money. It's too late, the good players are all gone. Don't make the team worse trying to window dress the mistakes you made earlier this year.

109% this. No, I'm not fixing the typo. 

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Solid starter through 2018 then steady decline.  Same Twins pitching staff plan...or lack of plan.

Signing back end starters and lefty swinging corner outfielders.... Seems like the plan from what I've witnessed.

[MABB1959]

Are we supposed to be excited about this?  WHATEVER!

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, bloggymcbloggerson said:

 lot of people crapping on this don't realize he was a perfectly decent pitcher last year. i mean honestly he can't make people forget that they really could use a top-of-the-rotation guy, but let's not act like the twins are flush with guys who would easily match his 3.3 bWAR from last season in under 130 innings. it takes a village; don't get mad when they fill it with townspeople 

But plenty can match the -.6 in 2021, or -.2 in 2020, or .2 in 2019, or 1.1 in 2018, or 1.5 in 2017, or -.2 in 2016. 

[weitz41]

It really doesn't make sense to bring in a middle to back end of the rotation starter at this point does it?

We will more then likely have 3 open starter spots next season and 6-8 guys in the minors that need a shot at one of those spots. Maybe we pull one of two out of that pile and only need to sign Wacha next offseason...

[mnfireman]

11 minutes ago, CRF said:

Nah.

 

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

109% this. No, I'm not fixing the typo. 

So you guys were upset when the team didn't sign Eovaldi, but are absolutely out on Wacha? They are the same pitcher at this point in their careers. Eovaldi is 18 months older, had a QO offer attached, and is guaranteed $36 MM over 2 years. The contract has a vesting/player option for a 3rd year at $20MM if he pitches 300 innings combined in '23 & '24. It is also triggered if he finishes top 5 in the Cy Young voting or finishes top 7 in Cy Young voting and makes the All-Star team in '24. Plus there is limited no-trade and inning incentives that could push the contract to $63 MM over 3 years, AAV $21 MM. 

I wouldn't sign either of them, but if Wacha can be had for 2/$20 MM (FanGraphs/CrowdSource prediction) I would sign him.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

44 minutes ago, bloggymcbloggerson said:

 lot of people crapping on this don't realize he was a perfectly decent pitcher last year. i mean honestly he can't make people forget that they really could use a top-of-the-rotation guy, but let's not act like the twins are flush with guys who would easily match his 3.3 bWAR from last season in under 130 innings. it takes a village; don't get mad when they fill it with townspeople 

We can't do that.  You see the FO sucks because we didn't sign [insert player here] so we need to complain about signing [insert potential useful player here]. 

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

 

So you guys were upset when the team didn't sign Eovaldi, but are absolutely out on Wacha? They are the same pitcher at this point in their careers. Eovaldi is 18 months older, had a QO offer attached, and is guaranteed $36 MM over 2 years. The contract has a vesting/player option for a 3rd year at $20MM if he pitches 300 innings combined in '23 & '24. It is also triggered if he finishes top 5 in the Cy Young voting or finishes top 7 in Cy Young voting and makes the All-Star team in '24. Plus there is limited no-trade and inning incentives that could push the contract to $63 MM over 3 years, AAV $21 MM. 

I wouldn't sign either of them, but if Wacha can be had for 2/$20 MM (FanGraphs/CrowdSource prediction) I would sign him.

Uh, no. Where did any of us say that? I've pretty much copied/pasted my feelings about every free agent starter other than Rodon over and over again all off season.

Also, they aren't even close to the same pitcher. Both look like bad investments, but Wacha has been nearly unusable for the three seasons prior to last year. At lease Eovaldi has been decent when healthy.

[TwinsDr2021]

Why, why, why even bother talking to him, unless it is a minor league contract or for the bullpen. How old do Varland and Winder, Sands, Canterino, Headrick have be before giving them a chance? 30? even then people will probably be calling them young.

With my view of things the major league starters look like, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Maeda and Varland, with the AAA starters being Winder, Sands, SWR, Balazovic, Canterino, Enlow, Headrick and Henriquez. Seems like they they in theory have some starting pitching depth (Those are just the starters on the 40 man)

As for the major league bullpen it looks like Pagan, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thiebar, Alcala, Moran with AAA being Megill, and the assortment of starters above.

So if a starter isn't better than Ryan, why bother, as the pen you would upgrade from Pagan, Alcala and Moran? but again the last two are pipelines guys.

Can we just be done with this idea of a signing a free agent, please.

 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

We can't do that.  You see the FO sucks because we didn't sign [insert player here] so we need to complain about signing [insert potential useful player here]. 

While I agree there's plenty of that sort of sentiment around these parts, I disagree that's what's happening here. Plenty of us are pointing out that Wacha doesn't have all that high of a chance of being a potentially useful player. Yes, he was good last year, but that was an extreme outlier in performance. Yes, he had 3.3 bWAR last year. He had 1.5 fWAR. 

Here's his bWAR/fWAR from 2016 to 2022:
-.2/1.8
1.5/3.1
1.1/.8
.2/-.3
-.2/0
-.6/1.1
3.3/1.5

Here's his IP totals from 2016 to 2022:
138
165.2
84.1
126.2
34
124.2
127.1

He's no more "potentially useful" than 10 dudes they already have on the roster. Do they think they can get a near Petty level return for Gray if they decide to trade him and are looking at Wacha as a possible veteran replacement in the rotation in that case? I'd guess no, but would understand that. If not, you're replacing Ober with Wacha. That doesn't excite me at all and seems like a signing simply to say they made a signing. I'm not interested in that.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Most 30-year-old pitchers don't suddenly find a career turnaround after 3 DFA worthy seasons. Especially ones who saw their velocity decrease. I think 2022 was more likely the outlier than 2019, 2020 and 2021 were.

This is true that most do not, but some do, after they learn how to pitch without the velo they had.  They learn a new pitch, or new way to pitch.  They are never aces, so not saying Wacha will come out as an ace, but many can have a good season later in career.  It is not the norm, but Carl Pavano had a few decent seasons later in his career after a bad run.  CHarlie Morton is a more recent guy that not until age 33 when he pitched in Houston that he really started to be a top of rotation guy, normally just a end of rotation, but at age 33 he learned to pitch and lowered his FIP and ERA to career bests, and has been on playoff rotations. Rich Hill is another guy that not until his mid-thirties that as a starter pitched well over full seasons.  I think he was part of health.  Some guys get by early on with velo, then as they age they actually learn how location, movement, and change in velo can be better than just velo itself. 

That all being said, I am not suggesting Wacha will be that, but for depth in the rotation I am all for it.