Ranking the 2023 Free Agent Shortstop Class

[Cody Christie]

The Twins expect Carlos Correa to opt out of his contract, which leaves the team searching for a replacement. Here are the top available shortstops expected to be on the free-agent market. 

 

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota is in an interesting situation looking at the 2023 roster. How should the team approach the shortstop position? The Twins expect Royce Lewis to return in the middle of next season, and there’s hope he can be the team’s long-term answer at shortstop. Lewis’ presence leaves the Twins with two options. The team can sign one of the top available shortstops or look for a stop-gap player until Lewis is ready. 

5. Elvis Andrus, SS
Age: 34
2022 Stats: .249/.303/.404 (.707), 103 OPS+, 32 2B, 17 HR, 18 SB, 3.0 WAR
Andrus has a $15 million option that he can exercise since he had more than 550 plate appearances this season, so there is no guarantee that he will hit the open market. He seems like a solid stop-gap option for the Twins if he is available. His OPS improved by 100 points after leaving Oakland last season, and he finished with an above-average OPS+. He may have lost a step defensively, but that’s expected as someone heads into their mid-30s. SABR’s Defensive Index had Andrus ranked as the ninth-best shortstop in the American League. Andrus and his representatives need to gauge the market to decide if he can get more than $15 million in guaranteed money. 

4. Dansby Swanson, SS
Age: 29 
2022 Stats: .277/.329/.447 (.776), 115 OPS+, 32 2B, 25 HR, 18 SB, 5.7 WAR
Swanson is hitting the free-agent market at the perfect time. He was a first-time All-Star in 2022 and has a World Series title on his resume. Some of the other players on this list will get more significant deals, but Swanson will be able to cash in on a tremendous 2022 season. Even with his breakout season, Swanson has a career OPS+ (95) that is below average. He makes up for his offensive flaws with tremendous defense, with only two NL shortstops ranking higher than him in SDI. Teams need to decide if the 2022 version of Swanson is real before handing him a blank check. 

3. Xander Bogaerts, SS
Age: 30
2022 Stats: .307/.377/.456 (.833), 131 OPS+, 38 2B, 15 HR, 8 SB, 5.7 WAR
Bogaerts has the resume every team wants from a free agent. He plays a premium position, is a four-time All-Star, has two World Series titles, and has four Silver Sluggers. He does have three years remaining on his current contract, but many expect him to opt-out. The one knock against Bogaerts is that he is older than the other top players on this list. Only two AL shortstops ranked higher than him, according to SDI. He will get paid like a top-tier player by one of the teams in the free-agent shortstop market. 

2. Carlos Correa, SS
Age: 28
2022 Stats: .291/.366/.467 (.834), 140 OPS+, 24 2B, 22 HR, 0 SB, 5.4 WAR
Correa made his opt-out decision clear as the season ended. He is heading back to the free agent market for the second straight offseason in an attempt to sign a long-term deal. Last winter, Corey Seager received the largest free agent shortstop contract at ten years and $325 million. Correa is likely searching for a similar amount. Twins fans may feel underwhelmed by Correa’s performance this season with the Twins, but his season totals were similar to other years in his career. He was a tremendous hitter with plus defense. However, he failed to produce in some clutch situations and his best offensive months were near the season’s end when the team fell out of the race. Minnesota has payroll flexibility to sign Correa, but it would be out of character for the front office to make that type of commitment. 

1. Trea Turner, SS
Age: 29
2022 Stats: .298/.343/.466 (.809), 121 OPS+, 39 2B, 21 HR, 27 SB, 4.9 WAR
Outside of Aaron Judge, Turner is likely to get the biggest free-agent contract. He is a true five-tool talent with skills on both sides of the ball and elite speed. He’s stolen 30 or more bases in five seasons, even in an era when teams are less inclined to run. Plenty of front offices will be willing to throw piles of money at Turner to a top-of-the-order hitter that takes their team to the next level. He’s won a batting title, he’s won a World Series, and he’s a multi-time All-Star. Minnesota isn’t going to sign Turner, but his contract will likely point to how much it will cost to sign Correa long-term. 

Do you see any of these shortstops as fits for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Mike Sixel]

Any of them.

[Battle ur tail off]

I'm not sure this list does us any good as there is a pretty good chance that half or more of these guys resign with the club they are currently playing on...

 

 

 

 

 

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Any of them.

Or even Jose Iglesias. They need a SS to be competitive.

[Mark G]

Jeez, we had the guy we want.  He has said he would like to stay, if it could be worked out.   Why can't we find a way to keep him?  

[Rosterman]

I would have to think the Twins would be looking at #10-20 in the 2023 shortstop available class. 

[Doctor Gast]

Any of the top SS will want long term & big bucks. If this is the route that the FO wants to go, Correa is the one. If not I'm not sold on Andrus, we need a much better defensive SS to help support 3B Miranda, 2B Polanco and 1st base Arraez.

[gunnarthor]

I don't want them to sign a shortstop. They have Royce Lewis. They have a ton of bats. They should be able to produce a reasonably good offense again next year. They need pitching. Every penny has to go to pitching. 

[howeda7]

If Correa is not back, the opening day SS should be Jorge Polanco or Gio Urshella. Spending $10 million on the next Andrelton Simmons so one of Arreaz/Miranda/Urshella has to sit on the bench is a waste.

[tony&rodney]

Go big or stand pat. Correa or Turner for the big money is worth it. Otherwise, the Twins will need to limp along with Martin, Palacios, Lee, Urshela, or some combination of guys until Royce Lewis is ready to play. No way do we want another former guy playing shortstop.

[MTV]

Correa if you want to spend most of your FA money, Swanson/Bogaerts if you want a smaller deal, probably Jose Iglesias if you want a stop-gap. This is likely the last year you will need to search for a stop-gap, because even if Lewis gets injured again Brooks Lee should be ready around 2024. However, this will be a serious year with a lot of FA next winter, chasing a title would be great this year rather than the upcoming ones. This front office can have $50-$60 million in spending and can get some marquee players if they play their cards right, so do it. Go out and get stars.

[roger]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Go big or stand pat. Correa or Turner for the big money is worth it. Otherwise, the Twins will need to limp along with Martin, Palacios, Lee, Urshela, or some combination of guys until Royce Lewis is ready to play. No way do we want another former guy playing shortstop.

Palacios is no longer an option.  Twins announced earlier today he was claimed by Detroit.

[mnfireman]

Judge may hold up the SS FA market as most teams can't afford Judge and a top SS, or the SS market could settle early and Judge may drag into February. Who knows ?‍♂️.

Turner or Correa could settle SS for 5 years or more and would make one of Arraez, Urshela, Polanco or Miranda available in a trade for starting pitching.

Andrus for $15M, no thank you. I would rather Polanco or Urshela play SS before him.

Swanson is an elite defender, but I suspect his offense will fall back to its previous level.

Bogaerts is going to wind up being an expensive 3B or 2B, or maybe even corner OF, very soon.

The Twins need a SS for 2months in 2023, until Lewis returns from the IL, so I don't see this being a top priority, but Correa was a pretty nice fit this year and I think he would look good out there next year (or 5).

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, roger said:

Palacios is no longer an option.  Twins announced earlier today he was claimed by Detroit.

Oh well. Cave is gone too and even Caleb Hamilton. Change is needed. I'm really hopeful to see the last of a number of other 2022 Twins because the team needs some talent.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

It's a little hard to parse the available information about Andrus' contract, but I don't believe he has that player option any longer.

I think that because the As DFAed him, and then the White Sox signed him after he cleared waivers rather than claiming him, he signed a new deal in August and the plate-appearance provision no longer applies. Presumably the As still owed him the rest of his salary on his previous contract, but he didn't get to the PA threshold for the option while playing on that contract.

It definitely is a little weird to follow, but that's what these sources seem to indicate: Spotrac contract page; article about Andrus' release that details some of the original contract terms.

I think Andrus could be an interesting stopgap. He had a bit of a bounce-back this year, especially at the end of the year with the Sox. And assuming that option from his old contract isn't setting his market, I doubt he'll be looking for anything close to $15 million.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I'm not sure this list does us any good as there is a pretty good chance that half or more of these guys resign with the club they are currently playing on...

 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully Correa re-signs

[mikelink45]

Pitching is key - if we believe in Lewis then it is not worth spending big on SS.  Congratulations to Palacios - he might make an impact with Detroit.

[Trov]

Last year I said no way would we sign a top SS, then we shocked everyone, but it took a crazy offseason, with a lockout to help that happen.  Now, will a team give the top SS what they are seeking, or will they need to agree to less seasons.  I think Twins would be willing to offer higher per year but would max out at 4 to 5 years, which I support that fully.  

Any of the top 3 should still be good for 3 to 5 years, but beyond that they will become a huge risk of being vastly overpaid.  A high payroll team can afford that, but mid-market or small cannot afford to have 30 mil of bad money on the books.  

Personally, I think Lewis can fill in, provided he can stay healthy, but if we can bring CC back on a 5 year deal I am all in for that.  He is seeking 8 to 10 though and I am not sold on him for 8 years or more. 

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't want them to sign a shortstop. They have Royce Lewis. They have a ton of bats. They should be able to produce a reasonably good offense again next year. They need pitching. Every penny has to go to pitching. 

If they put a guy with rock hands at shortstop they will need even better pitching. The most optimistic projection for Lewis' return is in June. The season could be over by then.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

if we believe in Lewis then it is not worth spending big on SS

I think Royce Lewis could be an All-Star caliber player at 3B. They could trade Urshela to make room when Lewis returns.

[Byrdman]

Nick Gordon will start the year as the SS until Lewis is ready.  I said this last year as well.  So lets hope it does the same and we get Correa again!

[MisstheBomba]

Good luck to Mr Correa in another market that hasn’t forgot he was an Astro....Twins Fans treated him pretty well...anyway, Swanson won’t leave the Braves because he’s from Marietta GA. Hope the Twins can find a guy that won’t hurt himself.....

[farmerguychris]

We just need a placeholder until Lewis is healthy enough to play.  See if Gio can still play there, or Gordon or any 10-20 range FA SS.  Use our resources for high end pitching as despite having numbers in the wings - they nearly all have health concerns.

[weitz41]

I'd be happy with any of them on a short term high AAV contract. That being said with 2-3 SS that may be ready soon between Lewis, Lee and even Martin it would seem like a waste of recourses to spend heavily on one of them.

[TwinsDr2021]

The idea that a team trying to win that starts Gordon or Urshela at SS with the hope that Lewis and/or Lee will be there to the save the day isn't a team really trying to win or is a team without a real plan on competing. If Lewis had more than 40 major league at bats or wasn't coming off another year ending injury I would have a different opinion.

With that said I could go for that if they Twins went out and got an all star type right handed outfielder (starting outfield of said right handed bat, Buxton and Laranch with Gordon and Kepler 4th and 5th outfielders. Arraez at 2B, Polanco at SS, Gio at 3B and Miranda and another solid vet at 1B and DH. And money spent on relief pitching, even though I am not really seeing any free agent pitchers jumping out to me (maybe Ottavino or Trevor Williams?), I don't see the Twins signing a starting pitcher for big money and keeping with the starting philosophy they have.

Is it just me is this like the worst ever Free Agents besides SS and a few starters that will never be Twins?

 

[Twins GFP]

The lynchpin in this process is the Twins opinion of Lewis.  If they believe he will stick at shortstop, then there is no need to go out and commit the money and years to the FA. If they do not have confidence in his ability to stick, then making a run at one of the guys here makes sense.

If they believe in Lewis, I would get word to Andrus to offer a 2/$20m contract with with $5m in playing time incentives.  Provides some protection if Lewis needs more time to recover, with a decent veteran manning the position.  Worst case scenario, you have Andrus on the books for an extra year.

If they don't believe in Lewis, and Correa is truly considering a return to Minnesota, they would need to get him at the right price or years.  Personally, my limit would be 6y/$200.  I am sure the Twins have already made their 2nd best pitch to Correa.  Their best pitch will come later in FA.  He would be nice to have back, but re-signing him (realistically say 8y/$260m) would pretty much cap the Twins to sign any other big names for a few years.  It would be a fairly large risk to take, especially with the SP rotation not looking strong long term at the moment.

 

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The idea that a team trying to win that starts Gordon or Urshela at SS with the hope that Lewis and/or Lee will be there to the save the day isn't a team really trying to win or is a team without a real plan on competing. If Lewis had more than 40 major league at bats or wasn't coming off another year ending injury I would have a different opinion.

With that said I could go for that if they Twins went out and got an all star type right handed outfielder (starting outfield of said right handed bat, Buxton and Laranch with Gordon and Kepler 4th and 5th outfielders. Arraez at 2B, Polanco at SS, Gio at 3B and Miranda and another solid vet at 1B and DH. And money spent on relief pitching, even though I am not really seeing any free agent pitchers jumping out to me (maybe Ottavino or Trevor Williams?), I don't see the Twins signing a starting pitcher for big money and keeping with the starting philosophy they have.

Is it just me is this like the worst ever Free Agents besides SS and a few starters that will never be Twins?

 

So you want to win next year but you also want to start Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B? Sorry, can't do both. It weakens the defense up the middle, especially with no shifts next year. They also both wore down this year as the season progressed and I don't see that changing next year. 

I don't know the teams plans for SS next year, but Polanco should not be it. Maybe we'll get surprised by an off-seaon trade....

 

[PatPfund]

I had interest in Andrus, but not at $15 million. If the follow up comments are correct about that NOT being a lock, he would be worth approaching, but he'd only be a stopgap (even if Lewis can't come back at SS, Andrus is getting long in the tooth).

I have no interest in the other 4 listed including Correa (unless he wants to re-sign a version of last year's contract if things don't work out on the FA front). All of them would require a long term commitment of so much money the Twins would be hamstrung in adding additional talent. And if 2023 showed anything, it was that adding a stud SS (who ended up having an above average year) is not the secret to making this team good.

We need a different approach (like using some of that FA money on one top SP instead of 2-3 has-beens, adding a real catcher, and adding a healthy starting OF). If we are not carrying .200 averages over half of our lineup, we could actually sign a glove-first (not washed up/weird Simmons type) SS.

(Giggles by the way for those who think our offense is fine. The Twins spent most of the year at/near the top of the Got Shut Out leaderboard. They struggled to drive in runs all year; a rookie who didn't even play the first month led the team with 60-odd RBI. The pitching staff was actually decent down the stretch, but a sporadic offense further decimated by injuries led to an MLB-worst record down the stretch.)

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

So you want to win next year but you also want to start Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B? Sorry, can't do both. It weakens the defense up the middle, especially with no shifts next year. They also both wore down this year as the season progressed and I don't see that changing next year. 

I don't know the teams plans for SS next year, but Polanco should not be it. Maybe we'll get surprised by an off-seaon trade....

 

I don't want Polanco at SS, just like I don't want Gio or Gordon at SS, what I was trying to say is if they upgraded OF and 1B/DH to two all stars or all star type players and upgraded the relief pitchers, I could go with that, because Lewis and/or Lee are worthy of taking over at SS, Polanco, Arraez, Gio and Miranda could be shuffled around to solidify the in field.

[Battle ur tail off]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think Royce Lewis could be an All-Star caliber player at 3B. They could trade Urshela to make room when Lewis returns.

I would prefer a guy with that kind of athletic ability and defensive prowess to play a middle of the diamond position though, wouldn't you?