The Twins Are About to Lose Their MVP. They Must Get Something in Return.

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Ryan Jeffers came just a few feet short of another dramatic, game-changing home run in the ninth inning on Monday, driving a Kenley Jansen pitch 411 feet to center where it fell into Max Clark's glove at the warning track. Just a little deeper, or a little more toward the left pole, and Jeffers would've had a go-ahead two-run homer.

Despite coming up just a little short on this one, it's been a sensational run for Jeffers of late. Monday marked his eighth consecutive start behind the plate — usage that is basically unprecedented for a Twins catcher in the modern era. He's been red-hot with four home runs and 11 RBIs over that stretch. In the waning weeks of a wayward season, he's firming up his case as Most Valuable Player for the 2026 Twins.

It's pretty difficult to see an argument otherwise. Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton were front-runners for much of the season, but they rank last and second-to-last on the team in fWAR during a second half in which the team has fallen out of contention. That seems to all but dismantle their cases. From there the best candidates are Taj Bradley, Brooks Lee, Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall ...

I don't think any can hold a candle to what Jeffers has done, even accounting for the extensive time he missed due to injury. Despite being sidelined for nearly two full months by a fractured hamate, Jeffers leads all Twins position players in fWAR, and ranks third among MLB catchers. He has been a regular fixture in the second, third and fourth lineup spots, out-hitting the average player at his position by nearly 200 points of OPS. 

And now, he's on the doorstep of free agency. Which is great news for him but less so for the Twins. As one of the better catchers to hit the market in years, coming in off a career season and under 30, Jeffers is in line for a massive payday. That should hopefully remove any sense of drama and uncertainty from the biggest looming decision for the front office: to extend a qualifying offer or not.

It's the only chance to recoup any value for Jeffers after holding him at the trade deadline. By offering Jeffers a one-year contract worth roughly $23 million, the Twins stand to get back what equates to a second-round draft pick. Probably less value than they'd have gotten for trading him, but real value nonetheless.

The "downside" of extending a QO is the possibility that Jeffers accepts, but at this point it doesn't even feel like an overpay. Per FanGraphs he's been worth almost exactly that amount ($22.6M) this year in 80 games. Bringing back your reigning best player on a short-term deal at that rate should be viewed as a favorable outcome, so long as Tom Pohlad and the Twins are serious about their stated intentions to raise payroll and spend at a more credible level. 

I's most likely a moot point. I would say Jeffers accepting is extremely unlikely to happen. He has long desired the security of a long-term contract and now he'll be able pursue it on the open market with his stock riding high. Odds are he'll end up getting multiple years at an annual salary not far below $23 million, although the attachment of a QO (which requires the signing team to part with a compensatory pick) could temper his market somewhat.

In the event that he lands elsewhere, the Twins will be glad to get back a relatively high draft pick that can infuse their system with talent. But it won't do much in the short term to offset such an enormous loss for a team with eyes on truly contending in 2027. The longest-tenured Twin aside from Buxton, Jeffers not only leads the team in fWAR this year but ranks second among Twins position players since 2023. He's been a crucial mainstay for this club, and he's going to leave a giant hole. 

Finding some way to fill it will be the biggest order of business this offseason after the QO decision, which takes place right away. (The deadline to offer is five days after the World Series, and the player has 10 days to decide from there.) In the expected event that Jeffers turns it down, then the front office should be prepared to invest that earmarked $23 million into upgrades elsewhere.

And in the unexpected event that the mere possibility of being forced to commit this money leaves the Twins too gun-shy to actually extend the QO to Jeffers ... well, any and all trust or goodwill generated by Tom Pohlad's big talk will evaporate in an instant.

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[Patzky]

They'll offer it. Basically nothing to lose but money and every thing to gain, either another year with him or a supplementary draft pick. If we sign him as a free agent after he declines the QO, do we still get the pick?  😁

[Glorybound]

This was the deal they made when they went all in. Time to pay the piper. I don’t see a qualifying offer as a possibility. Their roster is not set for offering a long term contract. So that option seems very unlikely.

[DJL44]

It’s going to be a long offseason. You might not want to use up articles like this in September.

[mikelink45]

I see no alternative to the qualifying offer.  There has been really poor planning - do you want Caratini and Jackson to be your duo?  I don't.  With the excitement about Lackey keeping Jeffers for one more year might be the bridge to having him step in, but if we are serious about next year Jeffers has to be in the lineup.

The extension that could have been done in past years is not possible anymore - that is on the FO. 

[gil4]

19 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

This was the deal they made when they went all in. Time to pay the piper. I don’t see a qualifying offer as a possibility. Their roster is not set for offering a long term contract. So that option seems very unlikely.

I'm not sure I follow your logic. If the Twins offer the QO and he accepts, it's a 1 year, $23M deal. If he declines, he most likely signs a long-term deal elsewhere, and the Twins receive an extra draft pick.

I don't see either option as unacceptable to the Twins, and that was probably part of the math at the deadline. The pick might be more valuable than the offers they were receiving.

[TJSweens]

21 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

This was the deal they made when they went all in. Time to pay the piper. I don’t see a qualifying offer as a possibility. Their roster is not set for offering a long term contract. So that option seems very unlikely.

I see a qualifying offer as the absolute highest probability. He won't accept it and the Twins will collect a top 50 draft choice. 

Even if he accepts, the Twins have him as a mainstay of the lineup for the season. If they contend, he helps them win. If they don't contend, they'll trade him at the deadline.

[Whitey333]

Interesting problems that the twins themselves created.  Thinking they were contenders was foolish.  Some of their tradable assets should have been dealt.  Now they will lose Jeffers and not get much in return.  Draft pick isnt enough for him.  Team MVP? no way

[Riverbrian]

I don't know what we would have gotten for Jeffers in the off-season. It's easy for me to say that I would have traded him in the off-season to get value back. So easy to say... that I will say it again. We should have. 

I don't know what we would have gotten in a trade. I do know that value is gone and I'm pretty certain that a 23 Million QO for a catcher is unprecedented and I do know that 30 million invested in the catching position would be a disproportionate budget allocation for what has historically been a low level budget. 

 

[Fatbat]

This isn't hard to understand. The Pohlads got here by being cheap. Lackey is gonna look good in a twins uniform but not until late ‘27 or ‘28.  In the mean time, Jeffers will sign elsewhere and we get a top 40 pick as compensation.  Jeffers will likely be wearing Yankee pinstripes for the next 6 years.  Gaaah.

[StiltedGopher]

What is reasonable contract for Jeffers on the market?  Number of years might be more important than the dollars per year.  I don’t think Jeffers matches Cal Raleigh.  Younger but a bit less accomplished than JT Realmuto. $15-16 MM for 5 years?  I’d like to hear others speculate on the contract size.   You need more than one catcher and catchers do have future trade value - some team is always looking to add a catcher down the stretch so signing him has future options as well.  Twins said they want to compete.  They are worse in 2027 without Jeffers.  

[HrbieFan]

Poor move by our GM(s) to not get an AJ type package for him. If you want to live like the Brewers, Ray's and Guardians...you have to be responsible with your assets. Get Ryan healthy this move and flip him in the off-season 

[bean5302]

I don't want Jeffers at $24MM. If the QO is an obvious major overpay, you don't offer it.

If a team's "MVP" is a 2-3 WAR player, the team has some issues bigger than trying to hold on to the supposed "MVP"

[Glorybound]

37 minutes ago, gil4 said:

I'm not sure I follow your logic. If the Twins offer the QO and he accepts, it's a 1 year, $23M deal. If he declines, he most likely signs a long-term deal elsewhere, and the Twins receive an extra draft pick.

I don't see either option as unacceptable to the Twins, and that was probably part of the math at the deadline. The pick might be more valuable than the offers they were receiving.

I guess I don’t see ownership offering a qualifying offer. Past performance as the indicator here. I guess we will see.

[TheLeviathan]

This was the price of the deadline gamble so many here cheered for.

I agree that any goodwill that effort supposedly generated is gone and then some if he walks for nothing.  This reality wasn't hard to see coming though and instead of a sound baseball decision we bet Ryan Jeffers value on this team we look at today.

 

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

I guess I don’t see ownership offering a qualifying offer. Past performance as the indicator here. I guess we will see.

Not extending the QO to Jeffers would be sheer and utter stupidity. So yes, you're probably right about ownership not making the offer.

[shimrod]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't want Jeffers at $24MM. If the QO is an obvious major overpay, you don't offer it.

Edited to remove dumb comment (by me). Need another cup of coffee

•  

[bean5302]

I think the issue at play is the assumption Jeffers is guaranteed to decline the QO. He'll probably decline it, but 2-3 WAR players virtually never get a QO.

I think he's probably in line for 3yrs $40MM to 4yrs $50MM as he's slowly coming back to Earth. A 1yr $23-24MM contract and getting out from under the QO gets Jeffers big value. No more QO's allowed, and 2 years of pay for 1 year of play.

I'd be fine with the Twins offering him an extension for 4yrs so long as it didn't come with a NTC allowing the Twins to move on if the catching prospects make their way up the ladder.

[PuckettPond]

He had more value @ the trade deadline. Not trading him was a minor league move. Is ownership positioning to sell the Twins or a World Series win as one can not do both. Fans need to think with their heads not their hearts for a better Twins team as an antique dealer should never fall in love with his inventory.

[Stew]

The twins aren't going to lose him. Experts have said he will get 17 to 18 million. Both sides have said he is coming back. The reality is there will be a base of probably 150 to 155 million per team. The team will have to spend the money. Will they just let him go ? Then attempt to to aquire a broken down old vet for more money than he's worth. Besides we could lose both Bell and Larnach. That's almost 14 million saved. And there are others that can go. Also if there is a lock out, players don't get paid. Maybe if they are lucky they will get two thirds of there season.

[bean5302]

34 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

I guess I don’t see ownership offering a qualifying offer. Past performance as the indicator here. I guess we will see.

Ownership doesn't extend QO's. The front office does, but they haven't had a player on the roster worth a QO under Falvinezoll. Says a lot about them, really. Wasn't Jake Odorizzi the last? But he was coming off a 4.3 WAR campaign

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Stew said:

The twins aren't going to lose him. Experts have said he will get 17 to 18 million. Both sides have said he is coming back. The reality is there will be a base of probably 150 to 155 million per team. The team will have to spend the money. Will they just let him go ? Then attempt to to aquire a broken down old vet for more money than he's worth. Besides we could lose both Bell and Larnach. That's almost 14 million saved. And there are others that can go. Also if there is a lock out, players don't get paid. Maybe if they are lucky they will get two thirds of there season.

Sources please.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I see no alternative to the qualifying offer.  There has been really poor planning - do you want Caratini and Jackson to be your duo?  I don't.  With the excitement about Lackey keeping Jeffers for one more year might be the bridge to having him step in, but if we are serious about next year Jeffers has to be in the lineup.

The extension that could have been done in past years is not possible anymore - that is on the FO. 

What extension could have been done? Are there reports out there about Jeffers being open to an extension and the Twins refusing to do it? I never understand this stance that the FO screwed up by not doing an extension. The players have free will. They're allowed to say no to any extension offer. The Twins could certainly offer obvious overpays that would give them a good chance at getting the player to sign, but the reason they're called overpays is because they're paying more than they should for the player. Generally, a bad idea.

It's certainly possible I missed, or have forgotten about, reports that Jeffers was begging for an extension and the Twins refused to pay him a reasonable amount. But it's not just automatically the Twins screwing up when there isn't an extension.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What extension could have been done? Are there reports out there about Jeffers being open to an extension and the Twins refusing to do it? I never understand this stance that the FO screwed up by not doing an extension. The players have free will. They're allowed to say no to any extension offer. The Twins could certainly offer obvious overpays that would give them a good chance at getting the player to sign, but the reason they're called overpays is because they're paying more than they should for the player. Generally, a bad idea.

It's certainly possible I missed, or have forgotten about, reports that Jeffers was begging for an extension and the Twins refused to pay him a reasonable amount. But it's not just automatically the Twins screwing up when there isn't an extension.

It's true. Maybe Zoll learned his negotiation tactics from Falvey based on Berrios.

[Trov]

First, we do not even know if the qualifying offer will be a thing in next CBA, as players want it gone. So it is possible they do get nothing for him.  I said they should have traded him during the season, because our best stretch of wins came while he was on IL.  That may not have been a direct connection, but the point was he was shown to be the "MVP" as we won a higher percent of games with him on IL than off it. 

Now he will go to Yankees for at best a draft comp.  I do not know if there was a good offer out there or not, and I know if he was sent the fans would have said we are selling off. It would have been the type of move that teams like Rays and Cleveland would have done, and this in part how they sustain their winning by making sure they get something in return of assets and never "push all in" like some teams do.  Not like we did that either. 

Point is if you are not going to push all in, then keep maxing assets. Jeffers was at peak value this year, and we could have got something in return.  Now he will walk for best case draft comp, but that may not happen.  It even comes with the risk he signs it, because other teams may not be willing to give him much more than 3 years at like 50 to 60 total.  Most catchers offense falls off a cliff after 30.  Outside the HOF guys, their knees just cannot hold up anymore. He will not be getting any like 5 plus year deals that is for sure. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, TJSweens said:

I see a qualifying offer as the absolute highest probability. He won't accept it and the Twins will collect a top 50 draft choice. 

Even if he accepts, the Twins have him as a mainstay of the lineup for the season. If they contend, he helps them win. If they don't contend, they'll trade him at the deadline.

It would be a top 35 draft pick.   It comes after the 1st round.  Likely a replacement of Dasan Hill in the system.  

[Coach Wheels]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sources please.

💯 I do not see a path where they pay Jeffers the same money as Buxton. Boras will make sure Jeffers is in the free agency pool and he will get more than $17 million/year for multiple years.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

10 minutes ago, Trov said:

First, we do not even know if the qualifying offer will be a thing in next CBA, as players want it gone. So it is possible they do get nothing for him.  I said they should have traded him during the season, because our best stretch of wins came while he was on IL.  That may not have been a direct connection, but the point was he was shown to be the "MVP" as we won a higher percent of games with him on IL than off it. 

Now he will go to Yankees for at best a draft comp.  I do not know if there was a good offer out there or not, and I know if he was sent the fans would have said we are selling off. It would have been the type of move that teams like Rays and Cleveland would have done, and this in part how they sustain their winning by making sure they get something in return of assets and never "push all in" like some teams do.  Not like we did that either. 

Point is if you are not going to push all in, then keep maxing assets. Jeffers was at peak value this year, and we could have got something in return.  Now he will walk for best case draft comp, but that may not happen.  It even comes with the risk he signs it, because other teams may not be willing to give him much more than 3 years at like 50 to 60 total.  Most catchers offense falls off a cliff after 30.  Outside the HOF guys, their knees just cannot hold up anymore. He will not be getting any like 5 plus year deals that is for sure. 

Trov - the qualifying offer takes place before then end of the league year.  Meaning this is the last guaranteed year of the qualifying offer.  I agree he should have been traded but you are still getting an early 30's draft pick.   That has some value.   Someone will offer him more than 3 years $50 million and he wants a long term deal.  Jeffers also has much less wear and tear than most catchers because the Twins have used a lot of tandem catching with him until this year.  

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't want Jeffers at $24MM. If the QO is an obvious major overpay, you don't offer it.

Agreed. That’s an absurd overpay and Jeffers should accept on the spot. He’s still young enough for a catcher to delay FA one more year for a $24 million pay day. 

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Trov said:

...That may not have been a direct connection, but the point was he was shown to be the "MVP" as we won a higher percent of games with him on IL than off it...

Actually...

May 18th. 22-26
May 19th-July 9th 24-22 (no Jeffers)
July 10th-Now 22-28

Total with Jeffers 44-54
Total w/o Jeffers 24-22