The Twins Are About to Lose Their MVP. They Must Get Something in Return.

[Vanimal46]

18 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Getting a comp pick in the mid-high 30’s is not even close to acceptable compensation for Jeffers, especially given the decisions (and lack thereof) that lead us to this spot.

I would feel a little better about it if the Twins were better at drafting and developing talent. But that's not a strength in this organization.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

If he does leave, which he may, then they HAVE to bring in a better catcher to pair with Caratini than Alex Jackson. That's imperative.

I wouldn't at all hate extending Jeffers and having him be the primary 1b/DH. Not that he can't catch, but his bat has been so strong and I want to keep that bat in the lineup if possible. IF he leaves, then they NEED to replace his bat/production with a good right handed hitter to put in the middle of the lineup. Maybe that's Randy Arozarena? Yandy Diaz? Trading for someone else?

He probably leaves, and they probably get a good draft pick. But then they have to replace his production. He is at a 5ish win pace for a full season this year, so it'll almost HAVE to be young guys replacing along with at least one bat (probably 2) and getting Buxton healthy with his hip stuff. It isn't impossible, as Jenkins and Culpepper having full seasons certainly should be upgrades over what was ran out there this season. 

I guess we'll see what the future holds. Hopefully there is a full 2027 season.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

He would have been roughly a 4 WAR player had he not broken his hamate bone.  Jeffers is the only FA catcher anywhere near this level so scarcity will be his friend.  I would guess 4/60.

Why are you assuming that? People were using this same logic with Trevor Larnach before he hit a wall and starting hitting like we all remember him capable of hitting. 

 

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

If you had a choice, and if you experienced this organization from the inside, you probably wouldn't want an extension here either. Who would?

Josh Donaldson said nothing wrong! 

 

1 hour ago, TJSweens said:

1 year $23.6M vs 3 years at about $39M or 4 years at about $52M. 

This is way undershooting what he's going to be offered, and if this WERE the case, this demonstrates perfectly why he should bet on himself, take the 1 year deal and then be very confident he can get better than a 2 year / $16M or 3 year / $30M  contract after an encore Twins season. 

[SteveLV]

I will be stunned if Jeffers gets anything less than a $60M offer.  I think it will be closer to $80M.

C's are scarce, and C's that can hit are even scarcer.  He will get paid.

[mluebker]

A one-year contract isn't something the Twins are going to offer for a season likely to be truncated by the CBA negotiations/lockout. And who knows what the new deal is going to look like? If they really want him--and I think they should--they're going to have to offer him a multi-year contract and hope he likes it here well enough to take less money than some other team is likely to put on the table.

[bean5302]

Jeffers a 4 WAR season if he hadn't been hurt? Maybe. He was out for 48 games? Expect he'd have played in about 30 of them. He still has to play out the last 20 games this year as well. He could wind up at 2 WAR on the year if he slumps.

Pre-injury = wRC+ 167

Post injury = wRC+ 121

Overall '26 = wRC+ 142

Overall '26 +30G at wRC+ 121 = wRC+136

Last 4 years = wRC+ 122

He looks to be having a career year right now. That does not mean teams are going to give him a contract based on his career year, but I do think it helps Jeffers with +1 contract year or a couple million of AAV.

[Chembry]

57 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Getting a comp pick in the mid-high 30’s is not even close to acceptable compensation for Jeffers, especially given the decisions (and lack thereof) that lead us to this spot.

What do you think we could have received for Jeffers, a 2 month rental coming off 8 weeks on the IL?

Jeffers, was tied to the Yankees, what would you expect from the Yankees in return for Jeffers?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

24 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would feel a little better about it if the Twins were better at drafting and developing talent. But that's not a strength in this organization.  

They seem to be getting better.   

Jenkins, Culpepper, Jenkins Lackey,  Houston, Matthews, Morris, Priellip.  The 22 draft class is pretty dang impressive.  

We traded off almost the entire 2021 draft class to support the big league team.  We did something similar but not quite as drastic trading off Amick and Hill from the 2024 draft class.  Still have Culpepper, Debarge (meh), Diaw.  Kendle and Ferrer may surprise but the pitching in that class has been extremely meh.   2025 has been pleasantly surprising on the  pitching front,  but injuries have limited some upside.  .  

Young appears to be lacking too much hit tool.   Barr struggled adjusting a bit,  Ellwanger was injured Reitz did ok.  Quick has been pushed in the system.  The mid to late round players have done better than the previous classes.  Mitrovich, Smith, Fang, Jones, Moring, and Stevens, Dalquiest, Becker, and Hilker have all pitched (better than previous classes) and there appears to be some decent clay in that group.   There are some high velocity throwers in the 2026 class which should be interesting to watch.  

The hitters especially picked later in 2026 have been pretty dang interesting in A ball.  Teel, Turner, Lane all look solid.       Teel .713(was .900 for a stretch),     Turner .941         Lane .978.  Thats an impressive group of hitters picked in the 10th and later rounds.  Tinney struggled a bit with the more inaccurate pitching at the A ball level similar to Lackey.  He has pounded the ball when he got a hold of it  .932 OPS.   Lackey ended in high A and did well.   

The international side also appears to be developing more fruit recently.  This isn't elite but its all an improvement.   Having high draft picks helps the outcomes as well.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Chembry said:

What do you think we could have received for Jeffers, a 2 month rental coming off 8 weeks on the IL?

Jeffers, was tied to the Yankees, what would you expect from the Yankees in return for Jeffers?

The talk was we could have fetched someone with around 20-25 million excess value.   Think Bradley valuation of last year, so either someone with high upside but hadn't performed as well or a pretty good upside player still in the minors.   Someone picked at the end of the first generally has a value of 10-15 million.  So we left something on the table and something that is less likely to hit and much further away than getting a player in AA or AAA.  

[Chembry]

15 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The talk was we could have fetched someone with around 20-25 million excess value.   Think Bradley valuation of last year, so either someone with high upside but hadn't performed as well or a pretty good upside player still in the minors.   Someone picked at the end of the first generally has a value of 10-15 million.  So we left something on the table and something that is less likely to hit and much further away than getting a player in AA or AAA.  

I am aware of the talks, but doubt the Twins could have walked away with that much in excess value.  There was quite a bit of speculation on here that the Twins could get Lagrange in the Jeffers deal, and many were saying Lagrange or bust.  According to Fangraphs, Lagrange is a FV50 prospect which corresponds to $33M in surplus value.   I don't believe that was on the table, or ever would be.  We would probably be talking someone 6-9 in the Yankees system as the headliner and Twins fans upset with that return.  It's possible that Ben Hess could have headlined that return, but he has durability issues.  

I get your point about being less likely to hit and further away from MLB and agree with that aspect.  My point is that Twins fans would have been upset either way and likely disappointed in the return if they had traded Jeffers.   

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would feel a little better about it if the Twins were better at drafting and developing talent. But that's not a strength in this organization.  

I get it.  This has not been a strength.  However, drafting and development is a prerequisite to building a winning team with below average revenue.  This is often taken position on TD as if there is an alternative strategy with any chance of succeeding.  There is not.  IYou are not taking this position but there are a quite few people who see little value in prospects when they are our best chance of building a contender.  We should all be focused on the team getting better at this essential element of building a contender.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

I am aware of the talks, but doubt the Twins could have walked away with that much in excess value.  There was quite a bit of speculation on here that the Twins could get Lagrange in the Jeffers deal, and many were saying Lagrange or bust.  According to Fangraphs, Lagrange is a FV50 prospect which corresponds to $33M in surplus value.   I don't believe that was on the table, or ever would be.  We would probably be talking someone 6-9 in the Yankees system as the headliner and Twins fans upset with that return.  It's possible that Ben Hess could have headlined that return, but he has durability issues.  

I get your point about being less likely to hit and further away from MLB and agree with that aspect.  My point is that Twins fans would have been upset either way and likely disappointed in the return if they had traded Jeffers.   

I stand by that this team could have gotten Hess and Beck from them.  Which is likely better than the comp pick in valuation.

Both guys that profile as potential impact reliever converts in the near future.  You know....things we could really use.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

I stand by that this team could have gotten Hess and Beck from them.  Which is likely better than the comp pick in valuation.

Both guys that profile as potential impact reliever converts in the near future.  You know....things we could really use.

100 percent they get more than the comp pick is worth. Now, they may luck into a better player, but that's not the same thing. 

Anyone here, and it will be dozens of people, complaining they don't have enough good minor league players, who insisted they buy, needs to stop talking next year and reflect....

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

I am aware of the talks, but doubt the Twins could have walked away with that much in excess value.  There was quite a bit of speculation on here that the Twins could get Lagrange in the Jeffers deal, and many were saying Lagrange or bust.  According to Fangraphs, Lagrange is a FV50 prospect which corresponds to $33M in surplus value.   I don't believe that was on the table, or ever would be.  We would probably be talking someone 6-9 in the Yankees system as the headliner and Twins fans upset with that return.  It's possible that Ben Hess could have headlined that return, but he has durability issues.  

I get your point about being less likely to hit and further away from MLB and agree with that aspect.  My point is that Twins fans would have been upset either way and likely disappointed in the return if they had traded Jeffers.   

For as much as the Red Sox gave the Orioles I am sure you could have gotten a significant return and it may have been from the Red Sox or even another team. Our front office made it clear they weren’t trading him.