JADBP
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Everything posted by JADBP
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Good points, LA, but the CBA ends at the end of the World Series, so you CAN'T negotiate in the offseason as soon as the team strikes, which I assume is as soon as they can. So, everyone gets locked out of negotiating with players. Then, we wait. I agree, I don't expect a strike to go into the regular season, as the teams and the players will lose too much money. But, it will make for one of those Silly Season trade windows. All hell will break loose. I still say the best plan is to do everything possible to extend Ryan NOW, before the end of the trade window. If he is adamant, and it is clear that nothing will move him now or off-season, to sign a long term contract, then yeah, trade him. But maybe Joe needs to step in here and talk with Ryan. There is a new sheriff in town. Pay him. Overpay him. Give him a bonus. Git er done. And, if all of that fails, then yeah, trade him. He's a grown up and if he adamantly wants to change teams, the do it.
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I would do everything in my power to extend Ryan, asap. Not because I want to decide if I trade him. Rather because I REALLY WANT him pitching for the Twins for the next 4-5 years. Same for Pablo. But, not for Jeffers, Bell, etc. I think the real problem here is that the Twins WILL be facing a minimum payroll and it might be in the $170 mill range. Maybe the league helps out small market teams but the Twins still have to fill that payroll. They are a really young team and they WILL need 3-4 big salaries to reach that minimum. So, that who? Buxton, Pablo and Ryan next year. Then what? They really don't have anyone else to draw over $20 million (maybe Lewis gets there). So, they might end up trading or signing OVERPAID players just to hit the minimum! So, best to own up to the coming reality. The league has already proposed a minimum to balance a cap (I like this). Now, who do they sign now to extend into those minimum years? Our best option is easy and his name is Joe Ryan The risk, as I have mentioned many times, is what to do if Ryan doesn't want to sign. That means you have to trade him at the deadline or this offseason as the very latest. If you keep him next year, you are betting that there still is a QO so you get that one more year out of him and even then, he might be underpaid with the QO. So, like I said, the best plan is to do everything you can to sign him, even if you have to overpay a bit or have to give him a nice signing bonus. He is going to be an outstanding SP for years to come...wouldn't you love him to be starting for the Twins instead of NYY or BOS or ATL? The final reason to sign him is that it will prove that Tom is a man of his word! Nothing says he putting your money where your mouth is better than signing Ryan to a long term contract. JUST GIT ER DONE! Then all this speculation ends....
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But we did the same thing with Sabato. Pretty much a single talent—hitting long balls when he connects. Sure he MIGHT succeed in becoming a great hitter (good AVG, low K rate) to go along with that power but I just don’t see him becoming a hitter like Buxton or Nelson Cruz. Three reasons: 1) he’s been in college ball for 4 yrs now and still never learned to hit well. He crushes fastballs. That’s all. And 2: the Twins don’t exactly have a stellar record in maximizing hitting talent (see Lewis. Lee, and lots of others). Finally 3: we are oversupplied with C prospects now, even before this pick. We have 2 on the team, and one is backup. Certainly need has to play a role. If true, then Tinney would likely have been there in the 3rd or 4th round. He just doesn’t strike me as top 50 pick. I hope I’m wrong but it will likely be years before we know. The Twins seem to be good with Pitcher's. Go that route. We certainly know how to trade them!
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Twins Prospect Riley Quick Has A Crazy High Ceiling
JADBP replied to Cory Sparks's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I think you meant to talk about his slider in the 5th paragraph. Otherwise, good writeup on a promising, quick start through the minors for Quick. -
Twins Claim RHP Jack Anderson from Red Sox
JADBP replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Uhhhh...nooooo...the Twins still have one of the worst bullpens in all of MLB. I wouldn't say that management has done a good job with the BP! -
This draft appears to be near failure! Other than Lackey and Burns, EVERY PICK THAT THE TWINS HAVE MADE IS BELOW THE RANKING! There are still many ranked players on the board, and the Twins moved into unranked territory early, in Round 6! Lackey was picked exactly as expected, at #3. Otehr than that, there is only one player that the Twins picked at below the ranked value, and that was in the 8th round, with Burns. Every other player picked was either UNRANKED or the Twins picked him well above his ranked value. For example, Tinney was Ranked 73 and the Twins picked him at 43. The only close one was Murdock, ranked at 140 and picked at 139. Other than that, that, every pick was well earlier than ranked. I don't know how the Twins evaluate talent, but something seems amiss if everyone else has these players ranked well below where the Twins have them. Pick #2, Tinney, seems totally inane, with the Twins enamored with a big bat (and nothing else). He can't play 1B or OF and he can't hit much beyond fastballs. How is this guy a 2nd rounder? He's a total flyer. After taking two catchers, the Twins took 9 pitchers in a row! I agree they should have starting taking Pitchers in round 2, but nearly all of them were ranked at least 40 places below the Twins pick and 3 of them were not even ranked (below a rank of 250!). WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON IN THE TWINS DRAFT OFFICE???? I guess the Twins, after the first 2 rounds, are taking SP's no matter where they are ranked. I agree with this philosophy but wowza, it makes the picks look awkward. Are they missing out on some stellar 1Bman with this blinded selection process? But Tinney, that was an absolutely wasted pick. I would have been happy if the Twins Took Renfrow at that point! Just a total waste. My opinion.
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- ethan lay
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My first reaction was also WTF?!?! I was stunned that the Twins would expend an early draft round on a position of (now) almost zero need, with a big bat and nothing else. After thinking about this futher, I now see no logic in this pic. It was foolishly wasted on a hope and prayer that this player actually becomes a useful bat (a la Sabato, Wallner) with little else of value. This was Zoll's test. Not the first pic--that was was obvious. His first chance to make an independent, thoughtul, smart choice, he blew it. I still say WTF. Were there any adults in the room to tell him 1) We can't win the game with power alone! 2) There are many fine pitchers to choose from, even if they were down on our board (the Twins still chose a SP with thier 3rd pick). His later pick of Wachsmann is likely another wasted pick in Rd 3. He is committed to Wake Forest, so the Twins likely have to overpay him to get him to sign. He's very likely first round material in 3 years, so, why would he linger in the low minors for 3 years now and pass up all that college fun? So far, Zoll's first draft day looks like this: 1. Makes the obvious pick at #3. 2. Makes an inane pick 2A.Make a good SP pick 3. Another inane pick 4. A good SP We all wanted him to load up on all those SPs in this draft. After the first round, I am very disappointed. I'd have to give him a FAIL today.
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Absolutely positively zero chance they give Jeffers a $22 mill one year offer! That is insanity. Just trade him and get it over with. NYY have been desperately asking for him for some time. Trade him before he breaks another bone! On the other hand, if Tom wanted to show his stripes, then extend Ryan NOW. Because anytime next year will be too late. This is the only chance you will have to extend him and you are going to have to pay Market rate for a top shelf SP! Imagine a rotation starting with Ryan, Lopez and Bradey. That sounds pretty stout.
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SOOOOO Glad that Zoll didn't try to get cute here. I am definitely more excited about Lackey than I was about Mauer in 2001. This is Mauer with power (like he showed he had the one time he came up for the big contract year! I believe he had a lot more power in him, just got that contract and put the sat back and relaxed--invented a new word: Maueritis). I am guessing he will slide in above just above Tait as #3 in the top prospects. He could be #1 or 2 by the end of the season. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him in Target Field late 2027. Lackey is an already very good backstop and that could push him so no later than 2028. Doesn't need nearly as many reps as Tait. Yeah, so now go draft some SPs! This is a pretty good draft class for P's!
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Jeff Passan Identifies Two Potential Twins Trade Targets
JADBP replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Or the Twins trading for Tarik Skubal!!! Can you imagine what that would be like!!! We’d shoot up the rankings like a rocket! …That’s not happening either…. -
Twins Acquire Tommy Nance From Blue Jays To Bolster Bullpen
JADBP replied to Steve Drumwright's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I highly doubt he will be around three more years! I just hope he makes it through this season! -
Well if we get lucky we get Chow. But who the heck knows what Zoll will do. Pitchers are as risky as you get in the draft. I’d surely take one if the top three. It’s a no brainer. Don’t try to get fancy. It’s up the the Twins to take all that talent and mold it into a superstar. They did it with Maier and with Buxton ( and countless others over the decades!). Dont get fancy!!!
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I sure hope they don’t get cute! Remember Zoll is new at this. I could never trust Falvey either. He drafted Brent Rooker in 1st round comp bal and then traded him almost as soon as he got to the Biggs. We got Pagan and Paddock. I hope Falvey isn’t talking to Zoll!! This is Zolls first test. If the Twins play games to drop down to Flora to swish money around, then I will absolutely give up on my home town team!!!!
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Here’s a weird thought: what would you say if the Twins traded for….Skubal? Of course, it depends on who they trade …but we have some extra pieces to move around (Larnach? Wallner (uhhh choke, no wait, LOL), and maybe a real player like Keaschall and a prospect? Or what? Can you imagine going into the playoffs facing Skubal, Ryan and Bradley? Geeez how much difference just one player can make! Wowza.
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The Adjustment That Could Unlock Taj Bradley's Best Self
JADBP replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, that Skubal arb win was pretty eye-opening. But, then, he is Skubal...likely the best SP in the AL. I certainly hope the Twins see the sound logic in giving Ryan a competitive extension! We will certainly miss him. As I said earlier, it sounds like MLB is offering a MINIMUM salary per team of around $170 million, and that would force the Twins to push their salary up by almost $60 million! Whew...with that on the horizon, we can certainly afford Ryan. Git it done! -
Twins Acquire Woo Suk Go For Bullpen . . . Seriously
JADBP commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
First Outman…then this! EEK! I wish him all the luck in the world but I don’t have high hopes. I’m sure the Tiggers tried everything they could think of before letting him go for nothing in return. -
The Adjustment That Could Unlock Taj Bradley's Best Self
JADBP replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
On the other hand, he’s still relatively young and really is just coming into his own this year. He’s continuously improving. I’m sure the coaches won’t let him continue to throw his FB (no matter how good it might be) nearly 50% of the time. Right now, Ryan & Bradley make up a great 1-2 punch! I am hoping that Pohlad sits down with Ryan and convinces him to stay with a really friendly extension. But I think he will have to overpay because the Twins have burnt so many bridges with Ryan. If not, then trade him for that Kings Ransom! But, like the other article, it’s time to make up your mind! -
Have We Reached the End of the Road for Matt Wallner?
JADBP replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Not really. Lewis has a cannon for an arm. He can throw just fine. I love Lewis, but far too much muscles for an MLBer. He needs to lean out and learn FAST, Twitchy moves instead of all this monster power. Love the home runs but they don't plan in the field. But...he DOES throw better than most on the team! -
This ALL depends on Zoll and Pohlad! We definitely won’t win many playoff games with a young team like this. We will need some old pro experience too. Buxton will prob be DH in a couple years as he slows down. But the question is will Pohlad extend Lopez or Ryan? Will he keep paying these players as they mature (e.g. Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, etc) as the next wave arrives? Or will we continue to be dumpster diving on the future. I am hoping they get a new GM to better construct the team! This question will be partly answered next year. There WILL BE a minimum payroll (already proposed by MLB) and early data says it will be around $170 million! That means the Twins are forced to carry at least some $20 million players. At this point, they are really going to need to extend someone like Lopez or Ryan. With Ryan, either trade him at this deadline or extend him another 3-4 years. He’s certainly earned it and has rarely been injured. But, alas I really don’t think he would agree. Because if Zoll holds him and waits until next year to try to extend him, Ryan will definitely say NO! So, all of this depends on Zoll figuring this out and Pohlad agreeing. I don’t have any confidence in Zoll but maybe Tom can figure it out.

