A Radically Different Deadline Approach Has Led to the Same August Results for the Minnesota Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett, David Frerker-Imagn Images

Last year, the Twins stumbled into the month of August, dropping four of their last five in July to fall six games below .500 and spur an unprecedented deadline sell-off. In what would prove to be Derek Falvey's final big swing at the helm, Minnesota's front office traded away 10 major-league players. The outgoing wave included their three best relievers in Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland, and one of their top-three position players in Carlos Correa. What remained was an ill-suited starting shortstop in Brooks Lee and a bullpen full of marginal (at best) MLB talent.

The ensuing result was predictably very bad. Through August 27th, they were 9-16, a .360 winning percentage. Their decimated bullpen ranked 19th among MLB teams in fWAR, while their rotation ranked 18th and their offense ranked 21st. 

This year, August started on a very different note for the Twins. They won seven of their last nine games in July, bouncing back from a post-break slump, and by the time the trade deadline arrived, they had emphatically emerged as buyers. They traded one of their top pitching prospects for Jeff Hoffman, after also shipping out noteworthy prospects for reliever A.J. Minter and starter Dean Kremer.

Following Tom Pohlad's edict, first-year baseball ops leader Jeremy Zoll invested in his roster, in an effort to bolster the club's chances in August and September as they competed for a playoff spot. And in response to that investment, through August 27th, this year's Twins have gone ... 8-15, good for a .348 winning percentage that is slightly worse than 2025 through this date. The revamped bullpen has been modestly better (15th), albeit with a far worse Win Probability Added, while the rotation and offense have both been middle-of-the-pack.

Just as expectations played to Shelton's favor in the first half of the season, they now work against him relative to where Rocco Baldelli stood one year ago. Last August, people were commending the Twins for playing free and easy, absent the weight of contention status and urgency. Now the current team is collapsing under pressure, struggling across all phases, with poor play accompanied by questionable decision-making from both Shelton and Zoll's front office.

The difference is that the ending of this year's story remains unwritten. We know where it went from here last season: from August 28th onward the Twins went 10-19 to end up in fourth place with 92 losses. There's still time for the Twins to turn the ship around and at least make things interesting. Their remaining schedule is favorable. Walker Jenkins is on his way and Joe Ryan is hopefully not far behind.

But in order to avoid irrelevance by mid-September, an outcome that would cast huge scrutiny on their decision to parse out future assets for short-term help three weeks ago, these beefed-up Twins need to show they are better than the dismantled, resigned team that marched to the finish line a year ago. So far, they haven't proven it in the least.

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[Glorybound]

Comparing the last two seasons is really silly. Some of the bonehead decisions from last year are being lived out this year aka Varland trade. Example of this is Andrew Morris being used as a set up reliever. While he has had a good season as a whole his best use still may be a starter. The hole they dug last year will not be fixed in a single season.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

Hey, that's baseball. I approved of the deadline trades that the Twins made. I only regret that we didn't get rid of Larnach at the deadline. Never a sure thing how this stuff will work out. You always have to factor in injuries and lackluster performance by some of the regulars too. That said. we still have about 5 weeks left to play and good things still COULD happen. I'm not giving up yet. 

[Whitey333]

Twins are funner to watch this year but still not a very good team.  Lots of holes to filled.  Still hard to understand their philosophy.  Pohlad gloating about adding 8 million to payroll lands flat when you consider it was reduced by nearly 60 million the past year and a half.  The players added at the deadline are marginal at best and certainly not better than the players we traded away last year.

[SarasotaBill]

Delusional owner and in-experienced GM is not a good combination.

Twins are a below 500 team and should have traded their expiring assets (Jeffers, Larnach, ...).

The reality is that there will be a CBA lockout next year. 

So Twins are compounding their mistakes this year into next year.

[saviking]

So we most likely still won't make the playoffs yet missed an opportunity to trade Jeffers, Rryan and larnach .. 

Guess they thought they were taking a calculated risk. Thisbtram isn't very good with a calculator. 

[TroyVang]

I hate to say this, but at least they tried. At least they didn't roll over or frustratingly stand pat. I hope this kind of goes like 2001, when they surprisingly traded for Detroit closer Todd Jones. The team was kind of good out of nowhere and made an acquisition to signal that. They didn't make the playoffs, but they did the next three years and six out the next ten. I hope that is what we're seeing here, fingers crossed.

[MeleMouth]

26 minutes ago, SarasotaBill said:

Delusional owner and in-experienced GM is not a good combination.

Twins are a below 500 team and should have traded their expiring assets (Jeffers, Larnach, ...).

The reality is that there will be a CBA lockout next year. 

So Twins are compounding their mistakes this year into next year.

Agree completely. Would add that they are compounding their mistakes last year into this year, like they compounded their mistakes in 2023 into 2024, and their mistakes of 2024 into 2025.

[Hrbeks Divot]

The moves they made weren’t swing for the fences. It was a moderate investment to see if this team could make a push. I’m less concerned about the deadline acquisitions than their reasoning behind playing a clearly injured Buxton and letting Larnach struggle for so long. Emma is going to be on the roster next year. He should have been up two weeks ago taking away so of Larnach’s reps to see what we’ve really got with him. Larnach definitely should have been traded. Jeffers likely should have been traded but I can hear arguments either way. I was fine with hanging on to Ryan until the offseason. This is when we’ll see if Pohlad and Zoll are really that much different from the previous faces of leadership.

[Hubie29]

They did what they do all year every year. Add marginal or players that aren't difference makers. They had to add alot more than Hoffman if they wanted to show they were serious about contending. How about adding some meaningful bats or a top 3 of the rotation guy. This pitching staff isn't going to get you anywhere. They aren't even good enough to back into the playoffs with a .500 record. Sub .500 is a failed season. 

[Eris]

Realistically, the Twins have only Ryan Jeffers (and Culpepper maybe) who are above average both offensively and defensively. They have one of the worst defensives in all of MLB. This is not a championship team. What it takes to be a championship team. They need 3 or 4 players who can contribute better than 4 WAR a season. On the current roster only a healthy Buxton could play at that level. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I believe that the trades were made to maintain fan interest/attendance rather than with an expectation that this team would be competitive in the postseason. 
 

While much has been made on TD about last year’s trade deadline, they did not address the fundamental weaknesses of the team which were/are about 5 or 6 players whose best position was DH. 

[mike8791]

Agree.  Half measures never work - and that's what they did at this year's trade deadline. While some might applaud their additions, in reality it seems the FO was influenced by TP's foolish pronouncement that the Twins would contend in 2026, hence Zoll's trades for 2 relievers who were upgrades, but really did nothing for building a contender in the ensuing years.  Ditto with addition of a marginal #5 starter.

Either the Twins should have been more proactive in adding to a very shaky rotation by bringing in someone like Gausman and/or Griffin and an established corner OFer to add more thump to an over-achieving lineup(with an unrealistically high RISP average) or build for the future by trading guys like Jeffers, Larnach, Ober and even Ryan - none of whom were likely to be part of a real contender.

Instead,  they improved a pen that was built on smoke and mirrors(did they really expect Gomez and Morris to lead a bullpen in the heat of a pennant race) in a feeble attempt to stay in the hunt.  This is just not a long term strategy for success.  Now events have forced them into promoting KC and Jenkins after falling out of contention.  Count me a huge sceptic that this ownership/FO can ever succeed in building a winner.

[bean5302]

Must be a desperate Twins fan thing to consider this year's deadline a "radically different deadline approach." The Twins traded one prospect at the back of their top 10 and took on like $5MM in salary.

The team added a near DFA candidate pitcher and a couple good relievers.

I can't imagine the superlatives if the Twins actually made a big trade at the deadline some day.

"Twins exploded the entire history of the game by trading for a major asset. Never in the history of sports has a team ever traded a top 5 prospect for a middle rotation starter. The Twins are all in, ALLLLLLLL in and have sold the farm, they're all in, it's the end of the universe <#5 prospect> was going to win the next 12 MVPs in a row."

[old nurse]

Hot streak, cold streak That has been the MO of the half dozen hovering around .500 teams in the AL  All of the teams have briefly played well enough to lead the AL West or hold the last wild card spot for a brief while. Will the Twins get another hot streak or collapse. In this season who knows. 

[Riverbrian]

I've seen teams sell at the deadline and get a lot better

I've seen teams buy at the deadline and get a lot worse. 

I've seen teams sell and I've seen teams buy with only slight improvement or slight decline basically status quo. 

I've seen teams buy and take off like a rocket and I've seen teams sell and sink like a stone. 

I'm currently watching the Brewers lead all teams in winning percentage while being 30th out of 30 teams in home runs and 19th in payroll. 

I've seen our Twins sweep a 74-50 Braves team and I've seen the Braves sweep the Dodgers one week later. 

In 2026... The Dodgers with the deepest most expensive starting staff in the history of baseball winning just 16 more games than the Twins have over 134 games. That is one more win every 8 games. 

This is just typical baseball and it has been every single season without fail. 

Bottom Line: We needed bullpen help and we got some and Kramer has thus far been a decent addition. The team was 28th in team ERA with injuries throughout the starting staff. The bullpen is deeper now and it needed to be deeper. Only to watch the offense fall from the 5th most runs scored to 25th most runs scored after the deadline. 

Sectors fall and sectors rise. Sometimes independent from each other and sometimes in unison. It's a roller coaster. Anybody can beat anybody on any given night. Baseball seasons have always been a roller coaster for all 30 teams. Enjoys the climbs and try not to scream too loud during the drops.  

It is up to the players now. 

 

[miller761]

FO gets high marks for their effort and results at the deadline. Added to the team in the areas that most needed help without giving up much. Plus 2 players are controllable. Not every team that adds at the deadline gets the results they are looking for. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

Realistically, the Twins have only Ryan Jeffers (and Culpepper maybe) who are above average both offensively and defensively. They have one of the worst defensives in all of MLB. This is not a championship team. What it take to team. They need 3 or 4 players who can contribute better than 4 WAR a season. On the current roster only a healthy Buxton could play at that level. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I believe that the trades were made to maintain fan interest/attendance rather than with an expectation that this team would be competitive in the postseason. 
 

While much has been made on TD about last year’s trade deadline, they did address the fundamental weaknesses of the team which were about 5 or 6 players whose best position was DH. 

I think this is the most realistic take here. The Twins have a very average team in part because they don’t have a lot of above average players and essentially no elite players. Who on the Twins is an elite player at their position, meaning in the top 10 or 15%, which is the top 3 to 5 players in baseball. Maybe you could argue Jeffers is that, but he is it and he’s probably leaving. If you expand it to very good players, those in the top 25% at their position or the top eight players, arguably Ryan is a top eight number 2 starter, but not a top eight number 1 starter.  Maybe Lopez is a top eight number 1 starter but probably not. He more falls into a good category of the top 35–40% of players at that position. That’s it. Nobody else. Injuries count. Buxton could be an elite centerfielder but only if he regularly played 140 a year. He doesn’t. He’s not elite.

That leaves us in the position of trying to win with the series of average to good players. Those kinds of teams tend to run, hot and cold because average players tend to run hot and cold. They play well for a while, then they slump, hen  they play well for a while, etc. You can win that way, look at the Milwaukee Brewers, but you have to have a lot of depth. We don’t have that either.

So how do you fix this? Well, we could get ourselves two or three really elite players but we better keep them and they better be constantly elite. We have not had one of those for a while other than maybe Duran and then elite closer doesn’t do a whole lot of good unless you got a team that you consistently get leads. IMHO, the only real option here is to try to get a bunch of good to very good players and develop some depth. That’s what all this trading was about, get a bunch of guys and hope that either you improve your depth significantly or that one of their two of them hits big. Same for guys from the Minors. Culpepper looks like he will improve our depth if nothing else. Jenkins should do that and both might hit big. We thought Lewis might be that guy, but sadly he’s not. Keaschall looks like he’s already in the good to very good category on the hitting side and he could  hit big. We have to find him a defensive home because he has to play and be an elite hitterfor this team to be successful..

I think the FO is trying to develop death and keep the very good to elite players we have. The execution of that strategy has been mixed at best, but I think they are on the right path. Were at least a year and maybe more away from knowing if any of this is going to work, but at least they’re trying something.

[DannySD]

The trades they made weren't the problem, they will mostly help next year. The problem is what they didn't do. No surprise that a team with 3 catchers, sketchy defense, and no bench versatililty is losing games late. 

[terrydactyls]

As I have posted nearly every day since July 1st:  the Twins need (now needed) to be sellers!!