Brooks Lee Has Been Found Out, and Hasn't Found Out How to Push Back Yet

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

After being the 8th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Brooks Lee has failed to live up to his pedigree, struggling to sustain success in the majors so far. He hasn't shown enough improvement, and his weaknesses have been fully exposed. Opposing pitchers are taking advantage, and Lee's future with the Twins may depend on whether he can make a huge adjustment—quickly.

Brooks Lee has a sub-.650 OPS so far in his career, as he nears 750 plate appearances. He fails to control the strike zone and work counts. He lacks consistent power, as evidenced by his .370 SLG in 2025, which tells a different story than the 16 homers he hit. There are plenty of reasons for concern with Lee's offense. Priority number one right now is simple: Lee can only hit fastballs, and the league has figured that out. If he can't respond by changing it, he's in big trouble.

 

 

Struggling against non-fastballs isn't uncommon. Most hitters make a living out of simply surviving against the soft stuff and tearing up velocity. "The best way to hit the curveball," hitters have long said, "is to hit the fastball."

 

The first issue is that Lee doesn't perform well enough against heaters to carry him, with a .340 xwOBA against them in 2025. The second is that Lee can't handle off-speed pitches at all. Lee posted .216 and .214 xwOBAs on breaking balls and off-speed pitches, respectively, in 2025. Pitchers took note and have adjusted accordingly. Lee's free-swinging ways are too easy to exploit with non-fastballs, and it looks like opposing pitchers are going to lean into that information until Lee gives them a reason not to.

 

Lee has seen fastballs about one-third of the time in 2026, down about 15% from 2025. For reference, Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall have seen about 50% fastballs. It's no secret what's going through the minds of opposing pitchers when Lee steps up to the plate.

There's a real risk that this issue is too much for Lee to overcome. It requires a complete overhaul of his approach and (in a sense) his swing. He identified the need to make this adjustment last season, but hasn't shown improvement in the small sample of 2026 so far. He'll have to make the adjustment during the season, and quickly, which means changing what he looks for in the box and how he times his swing.

 

With top prospect Kaelen Culpepper off to a hot start in St. Paul, the clock is ticking on Lee being the everyday starting shortstop at the other end of the Green Line. In addition to scuffling at the plate, he appears stretched defensively. When Culpepper gets the call, which could be any time in the next few months, Lee will be out of a job. He can roam several infield spots as needed, but if he's still posting a sub-.700 OPS, it won't be worth prioritizing him in the lineup every day. He could very well find himself back in Triple-A.

 

The book on Lee's career hasn't been written yet, but what we've seen so far has been worrisome. We've watched how difficult it can be to make adjustments when the league finds a young hitter's weakness. Unlike players such as Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, or Matt Wallner—hardly a murderer's row in its own right, as things turned out—Lee has yet to show signs of being an impactful part of the Twins’ future to this point in his career. His performance, paired with the turnover within the front office that drafted him, could put him at risk of being pushed aside quickly.

 

Lee needs to figure out how to make opposing pitchers pay for attacking him with the soft stuff. It can be as simple as identifying and taking changeups off the plate, or driving an occasional hanger into the seats, but he has to show something. The clock is ticking, as other shortstop options close in on debuting this season. Brooks Lee needs to make an adjustment, and fast, and so far, he's only adjusted little by slowly in the major leagues.

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[dberthia]

A little competition can be a great motivator. I hope Tristan Gray continues to perform well so he lights a little fire under Lee. I'm starting to adjust my expectations downward for Lee's ceiling.

[Linus]

As my Dad used to say “he doesn’t get his pitch to hit”. It seems like his swing decisions are poor and he ends up hitting pitchers pitches. Guys not hitting something that isn’t a fastball has been a career killer since old Abner put 108 stitches in the horsehide. 

[Over The Hill Again]

Mentally I’ve already moved on from Lee as an everyday SS. I’m just waiting for the Twins to catch up. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

I say that the sooner Culpepper gets to Minneapolis, the better.  While he may well struggle some at the plate, at least there's measurable hope for something positive to come out of the experience in the longer haul.

As far as Lee is concerned, I think that those days are already nearly gone.  He's not helping the team much at this point in time, in any way, shape, or form.

[djvang]

Same with Lewis. They've learned how to pitch to him and he hasn't adjusted.

[Major League Ready]

I just hope they get their head out of the sand, accept this is not remotely a playoff team, and start making personnel decisions accordingly.  That means if Culpepper is good for the next month and Lee continues to be below average offensively; Culpepper is given a shot to play most every day,  Same scenario with Larnach/Roden.

[Nshore]

I heard another team's TV announcer say that in general Twins hitters have a reputation for poor pitch recognition.  If it's true, I wonder if it's something the Twins are failing to do in their development system or just a lack of talent.

[Muppet]

Don’t see why Culpepper or any of the other Saints ringers should be any different. The problem seems to be in player development, more so than in the players.

Buxton has been the only prospect since Buxton to make it work in the majors. 

[shimrod]

11 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Buxton has been the only prospect since Buxton to make it work in the majors. 

And Buxton has long stretches of inability to recognize and lay off the pitches breaking low and outside. 

[nova_twins]

Lee really wasn't that good even in the minors. He hit in college, so do a lot of guys that go nowhere professionally. He's not a good athlete and he just can't hit mlb pitching . . .

[Fatbat]

Ive always believed in letting young guys take a few lumps in MLB to see if they can swim. Lee is sinking fast. Try KC soon. If he swims, keep playing him….. Lee might end up a util type guy.

[DocBauer]

I'm not an extremist so I'm not a 'this guy is a bum" at 25yo believer. I just think that's a nasty response for someone who hasn't been a top performer to this point. I really think that's a short sighted window. 

BUT, while I have argued over and again about some of the positives of Lee and his potential, I AM in the worry mode, even this early in the season. 

Let's be honest, all we need to is slightly better defense...and he's probably capable of...and let the BAT come around, which he's also capable of improving and proving. His ST SEEMED to see improvement in both. So far, in SSS, we haven't seen either. But we're barely 2 weeks in to the season. I'm NOT an apologist for Lee. I want to see improvement. Especially with the his BAT. But can we give him more than barely 2 weeks in to the season before we decide anything?

What is this, the 7th or 8th Lee OP since 2025 ended? I honestly can't recall another 25yo who has ever been put under such a microscope! 

Here's a novel idea, we let April actually play out and go in to May and give a former top prospect a little time to settle in and see what happens. 

I think, if his bat comes through, he's a 3B or 2B, or a super utility player. But I am TIRED that he isn't a STUD player yet. 

 

[darin617]

The smart thing might be for Lee to give up switch hitting. Just bat righthanded and see if that helps him.

[Wizard11]

They are not going to dump Larnach for Roden nor should they.  They may however replace Outman with him.  Roden does not project as more than a 4th outfielder anywhere other than with some TD readers.  Possibly the same people who were calling for Keirsey in 2024 when hit .300 with power.  Larnach and Outman (with LA) were great AAA hitters too.  St. Paul numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.  

[Whitey333]

Not sure why people keep ripping Larnach.   He was second or third on the team last year in hits and is one of the leading hitters on the team.  No hes not a great defender but is still better than some of the guts sent out there.  Brooks Lee getting ripped by writers on Twins Daily is getting old and worn out.  The same negatives can be said by many in that lineup.  It's time for you guys to rip someone else.

[Trov]

I think sending him down to AAA for Culpepper soon and give him the chance to make the adjustments down there.  It is hard to make adjustments like they want at the MLB level when you are facing the best breaking balls in the game.  You need to work up to it. So send him down, tell him our plan is to work on staying away from pitches out of the zone and punishing the breaking balls in the zone as best we can.  His defense is not good enough to also carry a bad bat too. 

[mluebker]

2 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Brooks Lee getting ripped by writers on Twins Daily is getting old and worn out.  The same negatives can be said by many in that lineup. 

It’s getting old and worn out, because both of your statements are true. This is what it means to be a Twins fan in 2026. 

[Woof Bronzer]

8 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

 Brooks Lee getting ripped by writers on Twins Daily is getting old and worn out.  The same negatives can be said by many in that lineup.  It's time for you guys to rip someone else.

I mean, SS is a pretty important position on a baseball team...are you saying Lee's performance shouldn't be mentioned anymore?  Or should we pretend that he's better than he is?  "It's not fair to criticize poor performance" is something you hear from loser organizations, so it fits with the Twins, but I guess I don't understand the benefit of ignoring bad performance from critical positions.  This entire organization needs more accountability, not less.  

[JBK]

What are the batting coaches being paid for?

[JBK]

Just now, JBK said:

What are the batting coaches being paid for?

Wallner K's 5X followed by Outman's 4X performance.  They gotta make contact.  

Sincerely, 

Tired of Analytics 

[mikelink45]

I feel sorry for Lee - for all the pressure and all the criticism.  All the baseball ratings while he was in the minors can't be that far off.  I think 16 more games for he and Culpepper might make the team decision, but I feel like the team has failed Lee.  It isn't his fault we traded Correa and thrust him into a full time SS position.  So we compare him to Correa who has o.5 War and 112 OPS while Lee is -0.2 and 28.   That is tough.  I hope Lee turns things around.

His top 100 rankings.

Baseball America

Pre-2023	#45
Pre-2024	#35

Baseball America: The best source for minor league news and info

Major League Baseball

Pre-2023	#31
Pre-2024	#18

Prospect ratings from Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com

Baseball Prospectus

Pre-2023	#37
Pre-2024	#52

Prospect ratings from Baseball Prospectus

 

[RpR]

47 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

  Brooks Lee getting ripped by writers on Twins Daily is getting old and worn out.  The same negatives can be said by many in that lineup.  It's time for you guys to rip someone else.

Some on TD put him on a pedestal with out reason and they are taking it out on him for their failure.

The way he has dropped is a bit of a shock though. 

[bean5302]

45 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Not sure why people keep ripping Larnach.   He was second or third on the team last year in hits and is one of the leading hitters on the team.  No hes not a great defender but is still better than some of the guts sent out there.  Brooks Lee getting ripped by writers on Twins Daily is getting old and worn out.  The same negatives can be said by many in that lineup.  It's time for you guys to rip someone else.

Larnach is not a starting caliber MLB position player for a good team. He's a league average hitter if you don't shield him from lefties and he's a poor defender. That said, he's got a high floor and he'd be valuable enough as a low cost roster filler for a team. Larnach is a 1.0 WAR kind of player over a full year as a starting left fielder. That's Trevor Larnach. I don't mind the Twins keeping Larnach at $4MM, but he's redundant on this team. That's not "ripping" a guy. 

Brooks Lee isn't an MLB caliber player, period. Based on results compared to his peers, Brooks Lee's performance has not warranted playing time. That's fair analysis.

[DJL44]

He has been awful at the plate and on defense. I didn’t think Lee would be very good but I also didn’t think he would be even worse than last season.

I am not an Orlando Arcia fan but he is destroying AAA like you would expect from a major league player. He’s certainly more useful than Outman on this roster. I would cut Outman, send Lee to AAA and call up Roden and Arcia.

[Possumlad]

Lee is a good example of what great minor league development & coaching could (but in this case, didn't) do. 

Hitters with major swing holes or weaknesses will ALWAYS get found out in the majors. You can work around & through them in college & the minors, because opposing teams just don't have the prep time, research, and skill to exploit them effectively. Not true in the MLB, and never will be. 

While opposing teams may not have, the Twins minors/development staff should have been (and probably were) fully aware of Lee's inability to hit breaking stuff. They should have developed a plan specifically to address it - nearly all his training, practice, etc. should have been focused there, as it's likely the difference between a big league regular & another wasted draft pick. You obviously can't focus this much coaching & development talent on every minor leaguer, but Lee was a high-1st rounder with a top-100 prospect pedigree.

Maybe the Twins did what I suggested above, but I've never heard word of it.. 

We've seen top hitting prospects flop or plateau over & over again w/ this squad. Something needs to change with our development system.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I feel sorry for Lee - for all the pressure and all the criticism.  All the baseball ratings while he was in the minors can't be that far off. 

Sure they can.  Prospects are always just that.  There are thousands of examples of highly rated draftees busting out.  And thousands of examples of guys who dominate the minors but can't put it together in MLB (there's even a name for these guys:  AAAA players.)  Does Brooks Lee look like a top 100 player to you? Quick, name a good MLB SS who was slow. had limited range, and couldn't hit.  

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

It isn't his fault we traded Correa and thrust him into a full time SS position. 

It isn't his fault that he was asked to start?  At the position he was drafted to play?  What????  There are millions of players who would give up everything they have for a starting MLB SS position.  Poor Brooks Lee, how unfair for him to be expected to do the thing he's dreamed about since he was a kid!   

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He has been awful at the plate and on defense. I didn’t think Lee would be very good but I also didn’t think he would be even worse than last season.

I am not an Orlando Arcia fan but he is destroying AAA like you would expect from a major league player. He’s certainly more useful than Outman on this roster. I would cut Outman, send Lee to AAA and call up Roden and Arcia.

Have you watched each of the Saints games this year?

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Have you watched each of the Saints games this year?

No, and based on their attendance I am guessing only the Saints coaches could answer Yes to that question.

[Western SD Fan]

Lee has always been an enigma in that he was drafted in 2022 after they signed Correa.  He was essentially shut out of a real path to the majors when Correa signed the six-year extension and Lewis was establishing himself at 3rd base in 2023.  He performed adequately when he was needed as an injury replacement for Correa or Lewis.  I could also argue that the rigors of full-time at SS is taking a toll on his offense.  Again, we saw this last year with Correa.  Correa struggled at SS.  Once he was traded back to Houston and began playing 3B, his bat woke up (at least compared to what it was in MN) because he didn't have the toll of playing SS. 

As for replacing Lee, I think a long-term perspective is needed.  There is a looming MLB labor dispute, and we have no idea what a new CBA would look like.  If you don't believe that the Twins have a chance at competing, it may be better long-term to let the prospects not start their MLB clock when you don't know how their clock may change with a new CBA.  I would hate to use up a year of eligibility on a lost season when the timeline may change from six years down to 3-4 years.  I wouldn't mind seeing Arcia come up and Lee getting sent down for a spell to reset his mind, bat, etc.  I'm more uncertain about just calling up Culpepper and calling it a day.