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Weeks before spring training concluded and the Minnesota Twins flew from sunny Fort Myers to Baltimore to begin their 162-game regular season campaign, I published an article on utility player Ryan Kreidler, stating the 28-year-old had been MLB’s worst hitter over the past six seasons. Though harsh, the claim was valid—Kreidler’s career wRC+ of 11 made him the worst-performing hitter (766 out of 766) with at least 200 plate appearances from 2020 through 2025. Still, optimism remained that the former Detroit Tiger could contribute for Minnesota this season, particularly given his defensive flexibility.
Luckily, that has been the outcome so far. Kreidler has hit .244/.301/.419 with five home runs and a 99 wRC+ over 173 plate appearances, meaning that he's been essentially average. Nobody in Twins Territory is complaining about an 88-point improvement from his career average, especially given his plus glove and arm at one of the position’s highest on the defensive spectrum: shortstop. What is concerning about Kreidler's performance, however, is how stark a decline he has undergone in recent weeks, lending credence to the idea that he might be reverting to one of the league’s most ineffective hitters.
From April 11 to June 30, the right-handed bat hit .287/.357/.505 with a 140 wRC+ over 112 plate appearances. Hitting the ball hard and rarely striking out, Kreidler had underlying metrics that supported his offensive breakout, sporting a .334 xwOBA during that stretch. Since July 1, however, the first-time Twin has plummeted down to earth. Before a major breakthrough (or was it a burp?) on Sunday in which he collected three extra-base hits, he was hitting an atrocious .127/.158/.164 with a -17 wRC+ over 57 plate appearances this month. His ability to drive the ball evaporated in the heat of the summer; yesterday's outburst more than doubled his total of extra-base hits this month. His underlying metrics match his struggles, too. He did nothing but hit the ball hard and in the air on Sunday, but in the 50 plate appearances before that game, his xwOBA was a paltry .208.
No one who follows the Twins expected Kreidler to continue hitting like a star. Still, how quickly he descended into being the Tigers' version of himself is alarming, illustrating how unsustainable success is for fringe major-leaguers. Kreidler is still a serviceable rotational piece, considering he’s Minnesota’s best defensive option at shortstop while also possessing the ability to play all three outfield positions, third base, and second. But the Twins would be wise to move quickly to minimize his plate appearances. Luckily, one of their top prospects is the closest he’s ever been to making his major-league debut.
On Friday, St. Paul activated Kaelen Culpepper from the reserve list, with the organization’s third-ranked prospect returning to the Triple-A lineup. The 23-year-old shortstop had knocked on the parent club’s door earlier this season, sporting a 117 wRC+ over 303 plate appearances with the Saints. Unfortunately, however, injuries have delayed the top prospect’s major league debut. Yet, with Kreidler’s struggles, Tristan Gray’s recent demotion to Triple-A, and Brooks Lee’s full-time transition to third base, nothing stands in the way of Culpepper taking over as the Twins' primary starting shortstop as the club seeks its first postseason appearance since 2023.
Kreidler can still stake his claim anew, while Culpepper gets up to speed. His bat speed had sagged and his swing had flattened out this month, but he's still a fundamentally different hitter than he was before. Maybe he's survived a round of adjustments and a bout of understandable fatigue, as he navigates the first thing anywhere close to a full big-league season he's ever experienced. He has a bit of time to show that Sunday was more than a blip. Failing that, though, the countdown to Culpepper's arrival is on. The team even has one more week to entertain and pursue possible upgrades at shortstop in the trade market. In that way, the timing of this regression is fortuitous, even beyond Culpepper's convalescence. If Kreidler is back after that great game, the Twins are in business. If his warts are showing and his time is up, they've gotten the red flags early enough to scour the market for a low-cost boost at his position. Either way, a top prospect looms as an internal solution. Things could be much worse.
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