Why the Twins Shouldn't Replace Pablo Lopez

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Twins lost arguably their best starting pitcher this week. Pablo López is seeking a second opinion on the prognosis for a torn UCL, but is very likely to undergo season-ending surgery in the coming days. The rotation was expected to be the strength of a roster projected to finish below .500 by many projection systems. With a further bite taken out of the Twins’ chances, it’s fair to wonder whether they try to replace their ace. One could easily argue, however, that they shouldn't try to do so.

The Twins have several interesting options to fill their currently vacant rotation spot. At the 2025 trade deadline, it felt as though they were preparing for life without López and Joe Ryan, as they acquired several arms who could contend for a rotation spot for years to come. The offseason took plenty of twists and turns, but eventually, the organization settled on another run at contending in 2026, while holding onto the veterans that had survived the 2025 fire sale. As a result, the Twins were set to stash several starting pitchers in Triple-A who had nothing left to prove there.

The Twins’ depth is such that they will not have enough rotation spots for the number of pitchers whose next step in development must come at the big-league level. Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa all have cases to make the parent club's roster on opening day. They will also have Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, and Kendry Rojas headlining the rotation in St. Paul, who could all debut in 2026 if needed. Though there’s no such thing as too much pitching depth, the Twins have no immediate shortage of young, exciting options to mix into the rotation throughout the year with the potential to be productive.

While many of their immediate options are unproven and far from guaranteed to be successful in the rotation, it’s worth weighing them against potential external replacements. Lucas Giolito sits atop the list of remaining free agents. He could be looking for a one-year prove-it deal, after missing all of 2024 and looking like a diminished version of himself in 2025. Other options include Frankie Montas, who posted a 6.28 ERA in 2025, and Max Scherzer, who is unlikely to be interested in spending what is possibly the last season of his career in Minnesota at 41 years old.

 

While it would be hard to fault the Pohlads for spending money, an argument can be made that the development of the Twins’ internal rotation candidates is more valuable than the production any of these last-minute signings could make. The remaining free-agent market lacks the upside in both the short- and long-term that the Twins' current selection of young arms offers.

 

The Twins could seek out a trade for a big name, but doing so comes with significant risk beyond the 2026 season. The Twins aren’t the only team seeking starting pitching help headed into spring training. Toronto and Atlanta are dealing with injuries to their rotations, as well, and options are limited at this advanced stage of the offseason. Much like the trade deadline in recent seasons, it would be a sellers’ market for anyone willing to deal starting pitching. The Twins, being buyers in this scenario, could be paying premium prospect capital to acquire a big arm. There’s a time and place for going big, but it’s hard to argue that this 2026 roster warrants such a gamble.

 

The current roster, in fact, is the strongest argument against replacing López with any external additions. The Twins set themselves up for a mediocre 2026 season at the 2025 trade deadline. They then spent much of the offseason sitting on their hands, as they tried to decide the organization's direction. They’re left with much of the same offensive core that has consistently failed over the last two years (and four of the last five), and have mostly replaced their previously elite bullpen with minor-league signings and waiver claims. Anything can happen in baseball, but the projections paint the picture of a team that should not be mortgaging the future for 2026.

This season should be an opportunity for several players to debut and develop at the MLB level, rather than blocking them or trading them away in favor of external options. There is plenty of upside on the pitching and position-player sides of the roster, but many players need the opportunity to show what they can provide in the future. If things go extremely well, the Twins can compete in 2026 without replacing Pablo Lopez. If they do not, they will at least have sorted through the roster in preparation for 2027.

 

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[dxpavelka]

I agree 100%.  Six months ago most of the fan base did NOT expect this team to compete in 2026.  Most also expected Ryan and / or Lopez to be traded away for players who would NOT be part of the solution in 2026.  So, basically, in terms of 2026, losing Lopez is the same as trading away Ryan or Lopez for future lottery tickets who would not have contributed in 2026 anyway.  As mentioned in the article, we have a number of such lottery tickets already here.  Is it any better to buy a ticket and win the lottery than it is to win with a ticket you already have in your back pocket.  Of course a nice consolation prize for the fan base would be to extend Ryan sooner rather than wait for more debate on the matter.

[Coach Wheels]

"The Twins set themselves up for a mediocre 2026 season at the 2025 trade deadline. They then spent much of the offseason sitting on their hands, as they tried to decide the organization's direction."

This paragraph is accurate and, I agree, don't go spend on a SP when you have no expectation of being legit this season. Lots of arms for the rotation from within camp, find who can pitch. Personally, give the ball to Abel or Bradley and see who they are. We're a 70 win team in all likelihood. Let's this roster play this summer.

[Otaknam]

Agree. Let’s find out which young arms will emerge when given the chance since they are in rebuild mode. My hope is that someone, maybe Abel, seizes the opportunity and can become at least an effective and consistent number three starter. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I agree 100%.  Six months ago most of the fan base did NOT expect this team to compete in 2026.  Most also expected Ryan and / or Lopez to be traded away for players who would NOT be part of the solution in 2026.  So, basically, in terms of 2026, losing Lopez is the same as trading away Ryan or Lopez for future lottery tickets who would not have contributed in 2026 anyway.  As mentioned in the article, we have a number of such lottery tickets already here.  Is it any better to buy a ticket and win the lottery than it is to win with a ticket you already have in your back pocket.  Of course a nice consolation prize for the fan base would be to extend Ryan sooner rather than wait for more debate on the matter.

Really bad return on that trade but

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Whitey333]

Yes i agree at this point to not trade for or sign another starting pitcher to replace Lopez.  They should have traded this off season.  Im not saying that because of the injury per se.  Im saying it because his contract is too high at 21.5 million this year.  With the current payroll at around $103 million it made nice sense to keep Pablo.  The money budgeted there could have been used for the bullpen or other positions.  All those starting pitchers we acquired and have had are pretty much suspects or other teams discarded pitchers.  This is a good year to see if any of them are any good.  I also think they should trade both Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers to get something decent.  Jeffers is approaching free agency.  Ryan not long after.  I just don't see the current ownership investing in any major contract extensions.  Nows the time to.move them.  The team will be lucky to win 70-75 games with them.  May as well move on for perhaps something better

[mluebker]

One of the most clear-eyed realistic assessments I’ve read in quite a while of this team, its chances to be “competitive” this year, and how to make the best use of the potential assets they already have on hand.

[MinnInPa]

Abel ..i don't see Bradley lasting long in Twins Plans. 

[CRF]

I don't think anyone has to worry about them "replacing" Lopez. You can't seriously expect them to spend any money on one of the few remaining FA pitchers out there, do you? Because, they won't. 

[bean5302]

Lucas Giolito was the one who declined his $19MM mutual option with the Red Sox. As I recall, Boston was going to accept the option. Giolito took a $1.5MM buyout, and he clearly wasn't looking for a 1 year deal. That said, I think he was pretty crazy to opt out as the metrics suggested he was due for a major bout of regression.

I think Giolito is now facing the reality of the market being unimpressed with his poor peripherals and large asking price. 

I don't think I'd take a chance on him. If the Twins are looking to replace Pablo Lopez, they'd need to be trading for a pitcher, and that's going to be awfully expensive in prospect capital at this point. The rest of the team is pretty poorly constructed so this team is unlikely to make the playoffs.

The doom and gloom over Lopez is a bit over the top. Lopez is probably a 3.5 WAR pitcher. I expect we have at least a 1.5 WAR pitcher to replace him. So 2 wins over the course of the year, on average.

[LastOnePicked]

A+, Cody. Sound reasoning, smart conclusion. That basically guarantees the Twins will do the opposite.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Ryan / Ober / SWR / Bradley / Abel

That's the rotation, IMHO. Excited (or curious) to see how the latter three do - especially Bradley and Abel. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Trade Ryan to one of these pitching needy teams that are still hoping to compete if they have anything to give up. Opens up another spot to find out what we have. What are we saving Ryan for?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

48 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lucas Giolito was the one who declined his $19MM mutual option with the Red Sox. As I recall, Boston was going to accept the option. Giolito took a $1.5MM buyout, and he clearly wasn't looking for a 1 year deal. That said, I think he was pretty crazy to opt out as the metrics suggested he was due for a major bout of regression.

I think Giolito is now facing the reality of the market being unimpressed with his poor peripherals and large asking price. 

I don't think I'd take a chance on him. If the Twins are looking to replace Pablo Lopez, they'd need to be trading for a pitcher, and that's going to be awfully expensive in prospect capital at this point. The rest of the team is pretty poorly constructed so this team is unlikely to make the playoffs.

The doom and gloom over Lopez is a bit over the top. Lopez is probably a 3.5 WAR pitcher. I expect we have at least a 1.5 WAR pitcher to replace him. So 2 wins over the course of the year, on average.

Fair, but need to calculate the bullpen into the equation. Lopez over replacement would have taken 50 to 75 innings away from a bottom 10 bullpen in baseball. 1 good reliever over 60 innings will put up 2 WAR, an average .7, a bad one -.5. Likely 2.5 to 3 WAR.

[Mahoning]

This argument is, "Send them out there to take their lumps," and it is a plausible one, as long as two or three of them don't also need surgery, and Bailey Ober gets some velocity back. It seems at odds with Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season. If Ober continues his regression, then you have Ryan, Woods-Richardson (whom I like), and then three of the four -- Abel, Bradley, Matthews, and Festa -- have to prove they are for real. That is a lot of hoping. Meanwhile, Zach Littell, who pitched 186 innings last year, would, presumably, be a lot cheaper than Giolito.

[Rufus]

The bottom line is they are not going to be able to replace a pitcher like Lopez.  Last summer they traded key bullpen arms for supposedly future starters and the farm system has several highly hyped rising prospects.  Several of these guys are in their mid 20's they are not kids anymore.  Are they major leagues pitchers or wash outs.  While we can't expect any of these guys to be Lopez now is the time to find out what these trades yielded.  If the Twins have to trade or sign another starter it is pretty much admitting the trades last summer were  failures and their farm system arms are overrated.

[mark allen]

My take on the end of the year rotation. Abel Morris Zebby Prielipp Bradley

[SkyBlueWaters]

i like the idea of developing the kids. (Which is good, because it's what we have.) The upcoming collective bargaining agreement is HUGE for determining MLB's landscape in the future.

If MLB continues to let teams like the Mets and Dodgers buy up top talent, we are relegated to contending for the division title again. Memories of the first two decades of this century, anyone?

But if MLB comes up with more competitive balance, and the Twins have established a core of young talent over the course of 2026, then maybe over the following half decade the Pohlads can buy talent that helps the Twins go deep into the playoffs.

[saviking]

The scary part is if the Twins sign a veteran that can't get sent down they won't cut him of he doesn't perform and he will take up a rotation spot all year. 

 

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The doom and gloom over Lopez is a bit over the top. Lopez is probably a 3.5 WAR pitcher. I expect we have at least a 1.5 WAR pitcher to replace him. So 2 wins over the course of the year, on average.

Possibly correct, but 2 fewer wins means their chances of making the playoffs drop below 20%. Their plan for making the playoffs was "everything needs to go right". They didn't have any margin.

I don't think they should add another starting pitcher by trade. I would gladly accept a trade for a shortstop. A shortstop who can play plus defense would lower the runs allowed for all pitchers on the team.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

This argument is, "Send them out there to take their lumps," and it is a plausible one, as long as two or three of them don't also need surgery, and Bailey Ober gets some velocity back. It seems at odds with Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season. If Ober continues his regression, then you have Ryan, Woods-Richardson (whom I like), and then three of the four -- Abel, Bradley, Matthews, and Festa -- have to prove they are for real. That is a lot of hoping. Meanwhile, Zach Littell, who pitched 186 innings last year, would, presumably, be a lot cheaper than Giolito.

Littell might not be significantly better rate stat wise over Bradley/Abel but the 50 more innings he would probably pitch will be a hell of a lot better than the scrap heap Genesis Cabrera type relief pitchers that would fill that void.

The best relievers on this roster are pitching 60 innings no matter what, the extras go to the scrap heap.

[rdehring]

Great article, Cody.  Thanks.

Add me to the camp of those saying NO to any major trade or free agent signing.  Two of these kids should be ready for prime time.  Give them the ball and let's see how they do.  If one doesn't do well, there are two more waiting for their opportunity.  

The biggest effect this injury may have is eliminating one of the four from a move to the bullpen.  That could have a negative effect on the Twins record this year.  Probably should have said will have a negative effect.

[sweetmusicviola16]

The only reason that I would sign either Giolito or Littel or both, is not to contend but to trade in July and further deepen the minors.

[miller761]

Follow Milwaukee's blueprint. They are consistently in the playoffs in a small market like the Twins with a similar payroll. They get rid of most players as they approach free agency and take younger players in return. They then blend the younger players into the MLB team each year. They are always a young, athletic, good fundamentally and a very sound defensive team. You don't need a team of stars, you need a team of baseball players. Milwaukee has shown it can be done and how. The Twins just need to be copycats. 

[Senior Softball Guy]

1 hour ago, Mahoning said:

This argument is, "Send them out there to take their lumps," and it is a plausible one, as long as two or three of them don't also need surgery, and Bailey Ober gets some velocity back. It seems at odds with Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season. If Ober continues his regression, then you have Ryan, Woods-Richardson (whom I like), and then three of the four -- Abel, Bradley, Matthews, and Festa -- have to prove they are for real. That is a lot of hoping. Meanwhile, Zach Littell, who pitched 186 innings last year, would, presumably, be a lot cheaper than Giolito.

Zack Littell is the definition of a "innings eater". Not sexy, but would be helpful to a staff of "5 inning" guys. I never understood why thet let him go in the first place.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Mahoning said:

This argument is, "Send them out there to take their lumps," and it is a plausible one, as long as two or three of them don't also need surgery, and Bailey Ober gets some velocity back. It seems at odds with Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season. If Ober continues his regression, then you have Ryan, Woods-Richardson (whom I like), and then three of the four -- Abel, Bradley, Matthews, and Festa -- have to prove they are for real. That is a lot of hoping. Meanwhile, Zach Littell, who pitched 186 innings last year, would, presumably, be a lot cheaper than Giolito.

While I generally agree with Cody, I would at least look into acquiring Zack Littel. First, Giolito makes no sense. He's older, injury prone, and expensive. The projections I've seen are for a 3.95 to 4.25 ERA, with a slightly better than .500 record. In other words, a solid #3, good #4 on a contending team. Why pick that up for the projected $16-22M a year on a 2 or 3 year deal?

Littel is more of a solid back of rotation guy, 150-180 innings of mid 4s ERA work, winning 8-12 games depending on the team he plays for, all for $8-10M a year on a 2 year deal. That isn't too exciting but he comes with the ability to transition into a very good reliever if the young guys work out and gives us some rotation stability to start the season. He's also the kind of guy who would fetch a decent return at the deadline because of his affordability.  He may have no interest in coming to MN but he's worth a look at that price. 

 I would look into Little and see if I could get him below $10M a year on a 2 year deal, a $10M 1 year deal even better. Otherwise, enough on the "let's pick up a FA starter or trade for one" talk. Start the guys we have, sort through the mix, and set yourself up for next year.  

[TopGunn#22]

Thank You Cody for a well written and thought out piece.  I never thought the Twins would contend this year.  Is the "Universe" possibly trying to make things as crystal clear to Tom Pohlad that 2026 is not going to be the year of a Twins resurgence?  

Losing Pablo for the season should be the proverbial tap on the shoulder for the organization that the full scale rebuild should commence...very soon.

It's time to check in with these pitching needy teams to see what prospect capitol could be obtained for Joe Ryan.  It's time to go with the Kids and find out what we have in the way of young SP.  Bradley, SWR, Zebby, Abel, and behind them Prielipp, Rojas, and in a couple years Dasan Hill, Charley Soto etc...

And if they'd go so far as to trade Joe Ryan, then include Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Larnach and probably Baily Ober if he's pitching decently up to the deadline. There is no sugarcoating how bleak this coming season is going to be with the almost guaranteed stoppage in 2027.  It's time to embrace a complete overall of the roster and undertake the rebuild needed to make the Twins contenders, at the earliest, 2028 but probably 2029/2030.  

Pablo's season ending injury before he could have been traded for some good prospect capital should be a wake up call to the Twins organization.  Stop deluding yourself.  The fans understand the franchise is a literal "Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald."  Come to your senses and do what you know needs to be done.  

[OregonTwinsFan]

I agree as well. Let the kids pitch. Based on FIP, I think Zebby is going to have a breakout year.

[Jeff K]

Great article, 100% agree.  Not only let the young pitchers pitch, but let's let the young hitter play as well.  At least get Larnach and Outman out of the way to open things up.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Ryan / Ober / SWR / Bradley / Abel

That's the rotation, IMHO. Excited (or curious) to see how the latter three do - especially Bradley and Abel. 

There’s 650 innings, add Mathews as 6th starter for injuries at 75(?). That leaves roughly 700 innings from the bullpen.