Why the Twins Shouldn't Replace Pablo Lopez

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, mark sills said:

My take on the end of the year rotation. Abel Morris Zebby Prielipp Bradley

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Possibly correct, but 2 fewer wins means their chances of making the playoffs drop below 20%. Their plan for making the playoffs was "everything needs to go right". They didn't have any margin.

I don't think they should add another starting pitcher by trade. I would gladly accept a trade for a shortstop. A shortstop who can play plus defense would lower the runs allowed for all pitchers on the team.

So are we talking a direct reduction? I didn't have them at 20% to begin with, lol. Going from 2% to 1% is a 50% reduction, but not meaningful hahaha

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Mahoning said:

This argument is, "Send them out there to take their lumps," and it is a plausible one, as long as two or three of them don't also need surgery, and Bailey Ober gets some velocity back. It seems at odds with Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season. If Ober continues his regression, then you have Ryan, Woods-Richardson (whom I like), and then three of the four -- Abel, Bradley, Matthews, and Festa -- have to prove they are for real. That is a lot of hoping. Meanwhile, Zach Littell, who pitched 186 innings last year, would, presumably, be a lot cheaper than Giolito.

TPohlad said TC is "going to compete" because he had to say that.  As the brand new top of the organization  guy he had to say that.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, saviking said:

The scary part is if the Twins sign a veteran that can't get sent down they won't cut him of he doesn't perform and he will take up a rotation spot all year. 

 

Bingo!

[LastOnePicked]

4 hours ago, Mahoning said:

Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season.

Nothing about their behavior suggests that they believe this. You can attach a basket to a balloon filled with these intentions, and you'll have a beautiful flight across Twins Territory.

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, miller761 said:

Follow Milwaukee's blueprint. They are consistently in the playoffs in a small market like the Twins with a similar payroll. They get rid of most players as they approach free agency and take younger players in return. They then blend the younger players into the MLB team each year. They are always a young, athletic, good fundamentally and a very sound defensive team. You don't need a team of stars, you need a team of baseball players. Milwaukee has shown it can be done and how. The Twins just need to be copycats. 

Agreed, but that would take a vision, a commitment to that vision, and proper actions aligned with that vision. This organization isn't even capable of Step 1 at this point.

[DocBauer]

There's just mo way to replace Lopez barring some unheard of major ST trade. Just not going to happen. But someone has to take his spot in the rotation. 

If the Twins, deep down inside, really believe deep down that there's enough talent to compete for a winning record, and possibly squeeze in to the playoffs, I'd have no problem if they reached out to Littel or Giolito to "firm up" the rotation. Said veteran relieves a little pressure on other younger arms, and might ease the pressure on the bullpen as well. That veteran might even be flipped at the deadline for a solid prospect or two.

BUT, I also have zero opposition to opening up that additional rotation spot for one of the "kids" to grab hold of it. The circumstances that provide opportunity with the Lopez injury stinks. But the silver lining could be a step forward for another young arm...or more since everyone but SWR still has options so you can role through all of them as needed...to potentially build a deeper, stronger rotation for the future.

And isn't that we and the Twins have been hoping for? 

Simply for arguement sake, let's still assume Festa is going to the bullpen because that's best HIS future, as well as for the team. (It could be Matthews as well). That means 2 of Matthews, Abel, and Bradley fill out the rotation with 1 sitting at AAA to begin the season. That's exciting, and having that 6th arm sitting at St Paul has proven to NOT being an impeding as you are going to need that 6th arm at some point anyway. 

But since Matthews and Bradley are a little older, and have more ML experience, let's just say Abel is the "loser" and begins at AAA. That leaves the depth waiting in the wings to be Abel, Morris, Prielipp, Rojas, and possibly CJ Culpepper.  Not bad. And St Paul still has some arms like Baker, and Bash, etc, who have started quite a few games in MILB. They can even run some piggyback games for the 5th spot if needed.

I probably lean towards going with the younger arms and move a couple of them up and down as needed if someone needs a brief re-set at some point. Ignoring payroll entirely, that's probably best for the future of the rotation. And it's probably where I lean.

But I'm not going to be upset if ownership OK's a veteran signing. 

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Senior Softball Guy said:

Zack Littell is the definition of a "innings eater". Not sexy, but would be helpful to a staff of "5 inning" guys. I never understood why thet let him go in the first place.

Career ERA for Littell is 3.88 …… Career ERA for Lopez is 3.81

[HerbieFan]

I've said all along that 2026 needs to be about finding exactly what they have with a number of players.  Any trade for a starter needs to be for someone with team control for multiple seasons.  I'm in favor of seeing what they have in guys like Abel, Bradley, Festa, Matthews along with Ober, SWR, Ryan.

[Greglw3]

11 hours ago, Mahoning said:

This argument is, "Send them out there to take their lumps," and it is a plausible one, as long as two or three of them don't also need surgery, and Bailey Ober gets some velocity back. It seems at odds with Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season. If Ober continues his regression, then you have Ryan, Woods-Richardson (whom I like), and then three of the four -- Abel, Bradley, Matthews, and Festa -- have to prove they are for real. That is a lot of hoping. Meanwhile, Zach Littell, who pitched 186 innings last year, would, presumably, be a lot cheaper than Giolito.

That's the guy they should sign is Littell. Still plenty of room for the young guys to pitch over the course of a season when 10 or more starters are sometimes used by MLB teams.