The Twins' Pursuit of "Value" is Hurting Their Roster

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Twins' current front office, led by Derek Falvey, has been fixated on value since the day they took over. Getting the most out of your investment is a necessary skill in baseball, given the finite supply of resources—especially for the Twins in recent years. However, there comes a point at which value becomes the primary pursuit, at the cost of success. The Twins appear to have reached that point.

Value can be subjective, and each team has its own definition, shaped by its beliefs and intentions. The best example of this came during the 2025 trade deadline. The Twins have been steadfast in their belief that relief pitchers are the least valuable position on the roster and are easily replaceable. As a result, they traded away years of controllable, high-level relief pitchers for what they believed to be better value. In this case, they saw more value in emptying the bullpen to bring in players who would add to several existing logjams on the roster, including starting pitching and left-handed corner outfielders.

 

The case for the Twins making these moves is clear: Potential starting pitchers and regular position players almost always produce more value than relief pitchers. The problem is that, despite this truism, great relief pitchers are still a necessary part of a successful MLB roster. This decision to pursue value at last year’s trade deadline may have left the team in a situation where the payoff is irrelevant. Is it really a savvy move, if the result is a flawed and unsuccessful roster?

 

The Twins could have set themselves up to turn the 2025 selloff into a nimble reallocation of resources, but it appears value is currently getting in their way again. Relief pitching can indeed be more easily replaced than many other positions. That being said, impactful relievers don’t grow on trees. After parting with the entire top of the bullpen hierarchy last season, it seemed they would need to bring in several high-leverage options to fill the void and give themselves a chance in 2026. The Twins clearly didn’t see the value in doing so.

 

As the relief pitching market has steadily moved along, the Twins haven’t been involved at all. Despite their dire need for back-end relievers, they seem to be employing their typical strategy of waiting out the market to the very end, hoping to get a modest discount on players that 29 other teams aren’t interested in paying up for. These aren’t the actions of a team looking to win on the field, but rather one looking to win in the dollars per win department at season’s end. It’s incredibly disappointing.

 

The path to fielding a successful bullpen in 2026 has narrowed significantly, as the Twins have sat on their hands throughout the offseason. It was a credit to them to hold onto core players such as Joe Ryan and Pablo López this winter, but their pursuit of value this offseason may have them weighing those aces' value at the 2026 trade deadline.

 

The ownership and payroll situation has contributed, but the front office's philosophical rigidity is becoming more difficult to ignore. Getting the most out of every dollar is the top priority. Until the team shifts its priorities to fielding a winning roster, it seems we’re doomed to try to find solace in small wins on the margins of the roster rather than on the field.

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[LastOnePicked]

"It was a credit to them to hold onto core players such as Joe Ryan and Pablo López this winter"

Was it, though? If they had no intention of bolstering the roster, all it did was leave trade value to rot on the roster while hoping fans were foolish enough to buy their rhetoric of "hope" and "relentless pursuits" of a championship.

[TopGunn#22]

This roster as currently constructed is not a winning team.  If Falvey doesn't think bullpens aren't important or impactful, I have a question:  What did he think of the role the Cleveland BP played in their 2024 Division Title??  

[thelanges5]

Hope is not a plan Falvey. 

[LewFordLives]

Well said!

The problem is we have a GM who wants to show everyone he's the smartest guy in the room, yet he misses the obvious.

[Paul Walerius]

The Twins have a lot of talent for the pen at AAA.  I don't think they need to sign any big names.  

[GNess]

I agree with. the basis of this article.

Value ultimately has to be measured by wins as opposed to individual stats of "shrewd" bargain free agents who produce something out of a very limited investment. Too often you get what you pay for or more apt in this equation you get what you don't pay for.

[Whitey333]

Nice article.  Since the Twins appear to have NO intention of being competitive in 2026, a decision to keep Ryan and Lopez, and Buxton and perhaps Jeffers shows how incompetent Falvey is.  If the plan is to not be competitive you should trade those players while there value is at a peak.  Why keep them if you don't care about winning anyway?

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Paul Walerius said:

The Twins have a lot of talent for the pen at AAA.  I don't think they need to sign any big names.  

They do?

Who? Based on what?

[DocBauer]

To a degree, I appreciate and can agree waiting out the offseason for a quality, discounted add or two. In the past, that strategy has worked out fairly well. Cruz is the best example, but there have been other solid late adds that have paid dividends. 

But you know what works better? Target a handful of quality adds you like and need, and THEN sit back and look for some bargains to fill in certain spots on your roster. I make no apologies for some of the moves Falvey has made the last 2-3 years. But when ownership cuts your legs out from under you in regard to payroll, it does make it hard to "go for" the targeted adds I mention. 

For their of me, I just can't understand keeping the core intact, but then cutting the payroll...apparently...to be less than the $120M-ish that they finished 2025 with.

Larnach doesn't fit any longer, but until/unless he's moved, his $4.5M could have been spent better elsewhere. And while I actually like Bell, I can see where his $7M could have been spent better. And I've stated this is a previous OP, but imagine $10M for Nathaniel Lowe to stabilize 1B. Maybe even on a 2yr deal. Is he coming off a down season? Yes. Does he have Bell's power? No. But he's been a solid, productive player with very good splits for his career. And you might then grab a solid utility player with a decent bat, also with good career splits, in the form of Ramon Urias for around $4M based on projections.

That's only about $2-3M more for players that actually FIT the team needs better, and provide a more balanced roster.

Wallner is now available to DH more, and Martin and Roden get the starting corner OF spots to open the season, providing better defense. And guess what? You have 3 top 20 system OF sitting at AAA waiting for opportunity. With those types of moves, they have a decent, solid, primary 1B instead of trying to cobble a platoon there. And you also have a 1B/2B/3B utility player that is at least useful. And again, Wallner can be your primary DH and still play a little corner OF here and there.

Next, you TARGET a couple RP that can help stabilize and lead your bullpen. The best options are now gone, but maybe $7-8M for a RH and $4-5M for Rogers from the LH side. Or even Colombe for $3M-ish again. 

The math isn't hard. That's about $27M added to $85M for a TOTAL of approximately $112M! 

THEN you sit back and wait out the offseason and end up with a 3rd RP for around $2M that can help fill in some middle IP. Maybe there's a decent, RH hitting OF who can play against LHP for another couple $M or so. And the total payroll ONLY climbs to somewhere between $115-120M TOPS! 

And that's about where they FINISHED 2025 after the sell off. 

The roster is better balanced, and the bullpen has 2 solid arms, and a 3rd potential "steal" for depth. At least you've constructed a roster that has a chance to legitimately compete for a better than. 500 record. And ownership can't allow for a $115-120M payroll after keeping the core intact with the publicly declared idea of competing? That's still a bottom third payroll! But a better team.

Again, I've lost a lot of faith in Falvey. But a ton of blame still has to go to the Pohlads. Tom, you say you are a "go big or go home" kind of guy. Well, none of us are expecting some MAJOR payroll increase overnight for 2026! But you can't even have a 2026 opening day payroll a little less than how you finished 2025?

Shame on you Tom. Shame on the Pohlads. 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

Yeah, the offseason has been a huge disappointment.  Jackson is the only addition that on the margin could be considered a decent move.  The rest are - collectively and individually- a joke.  Not a single player added thus far brings any real value to the future upside of this franchise or will sell an additional ticket. Zippo on both fronts.

Tough Talkin’ Tom has been the biggest disappointment. He’s been a bag of wind thus far.  Falvey is Falvey and will continue to be until he’s fired. Shelton’s hiring is less than inspiring to be kind. But T-Cubed came in all full of piss and vinegar and has turned out to be all hat and no cattle. He almost makes me nostalgic for the Nephew…..

 

 

 

 

[Paul Walerius]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

They do?

Who? Based on what?

Prielipp, Raya, Bradley Abel Matthews Festa, Ohl Adams, Rojas, Morris.  It would be no different then when Jax or Duran were brought up.  I understand some of these, if not all, are starters but they will be fighting for 1 spot.  I truly think Matthews would be one heck of a closer.  Prielipp could be Jax or Duran, not sure yet, but I do believe he has good stuff as well.  

 

[the_brute_squad]

Even if you hit on one out of five value players. That means you have four players that aren't MLB level players. In looking at franchises that make the postseason, I don't see a lot of marginal players on the rosters that improved the team all because the GM had "hope".

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, GNess said:

I agree with. the basis of this article.

Value ultimately has to be measured by wins as opposed to individual stats of "shrewd" bargain free agents who produce something out of a very limited investment. Too often you get what you pay for or more apt in this equation you get what you don't pay for.

Check attendance figures for the last couple of times they won the division,  You are correct, you do get what you don’t pay for. It works both ways 

[TwinsDr2021]

8 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yeah, the offseason has been a huge disappointment.  Jackson is the only addition that on the margin could be considered a decent move.  The rest are - collectively and individually- a joke.  Not a single player added thus far brings any real value to the future upside of this franchise or will sell an additional ticket. Zippo on both fronts.

 

But, but, but Josh Bell, he could be as good a Ty France</sarcasm>

[Whitey333]

This off season is very typical of the Falvey regime Twins maybe even more so.  Don't sign anyone that can really help your team.  Wait until late in off season when the prices may come down.  Go dumpster diving at the dollar store for what's left over.  Nothing has changed.  They sell hope and hype.  Both of which just lands you at the bottom of the barrel.  At least the ticket sale department won't be overworked.

[Woof Bronzer]

10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Tough Talkin’ Tom has been the biggest disappointment. He’s been a bag of wind thus far.  Falvey is Falvey and will continue to be until he’s fired. Shelton’s hiring is less than inspiring to be kind. But T-Cubed came in all full of piss and vinegar and has turned out to be all hat and no cattle. He almost makes me nostalgic for the Nephew…..

 

Let's be fair to 3T.  Relentlessly pursuing a championship must be exhausting.  

[DJL44]

I don't blame them at all for not paying retail prices for relief pitchers. It is the worst value for the money of anything you can buy on the free agent market. There are bigger holes on the roster that would be a better value to fill by free agency.

[Woof Bronzer]

Good, objective piece.  It's really hard to understand how Falvey views this roster because the moves he makes are so puzzling.  He's in a tough spot personally, he knows his leash is short and probably disappears altogether if the team gets sold, so he's probably thinking the only way to save his job is through a miracle run in 26.  So on one hand I get it.  I just wonder if the pressure and stress is getting the best of him because there's just no coherence to what he's doing.  

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

Prielipp, Raya, Bradley Abel Matthews Festa, Ohl Adams, Rojas, Morris.  It would be no different then when Jax or Duran were brought up.  I understand some of these, if not all, are starters but they will be fighting for 1 spot.  I truly think Matthews would be one heck of a closer.  Prielipp could be Jax or Duran, not sure yet, but I do believe he has good stuff as well.  

 

PEN is a solid way to limit Festa & Prielipp’s innings while bringing value to the Big Club.

Raya - Klein - Adams - Morris (maybe not Ohl)

Matthews as a Closer. ……. all points you made above ……… Topa - Sands - Funderburk back for 6th/7th inning roles.

They acquired Orze in trade & that made sense on paper when looking at ‘25 stats.

A guy that has experience and upside with track record in FA should be doable as well.

To me, it’s just not that desperate of a situation. Unknown, yes - desperate, no.

[Western SD Fan]

One update to the list is the Red Sox signing Ranger Suarez.  Of the remaining teams, the Nationals are still running the kids and letting them mature into a core that could be great, the Rockies are what they are, the Cardinals and the Twins are likely in a similar boat of trying to compile the best competitive team they can and letting it ride.  I only feel that the Rangers are actually serious about competing.

I can see this as being a tough year to be a Twins GM, especially if said GM is way over his head.  With a potential lockout upcoming at the end of the 2026, I'm sure that the directive is to try to spend money "wisely".  Unfortunately, Falvey must think that "wisely" is spending pennies on 2-ply toilet paper where for a few pennies more you could get 3-ply that performs a lot better.  Also, that likely means not bringing up the high-end prospects too early as to preserve service time and team control, which I can see being a sticking point in the upcoming CBA negotiations.  All that adds up to a lot of placeholders on the roster to see where they stick or eventually be traded.

[mickster]

9 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

PEN is a solid way to limit Festa & Prielipp’s innings while bringing value to the Big Club.

Raya - Klein - Adams - Morris (maybe not Ohl)

Matthews as a Closer. ……. all points you made above ……… Topa - Sands - Funderburk back for 6th/7th inning roles.

They acquired Orze in trade & that made sense on paper when looking at ‘25 stats.

A guy that has experience and upside with track record in FA should be doable as well.

To me, it’s just not that desperate of a situation. Unknown, yes - desperate, no.

Festa should be the closer not Zebby

[tarheeltwinsfan]

27 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Good, objective piece.  It's really hard to understand how Falvey views this roster because the moves he makes are so puzzling.  He's in a tough spot personally, he knows his leash is short and probably disappears altogether if the team gets sold, so he's probably thinking the only way to save his job is through a miracle run in 26.  So on one hand I get it.  I just wonder if the pressure and stress is getting the best of him because there's just no coherence to what he's doing.  

Hey wait a minute. Is this a veiled analogy for the United States? Hang in there Minneapolis. 

[amjgt]

I agree that they have a strategy of trying to find value to fill out their roster, which is why it's so confusing every year when there's the "I'm not sure offering that guy arbitration was the best decision" moment. 

It's a corollary to the "value" strategy which involves being terrified of letting an experienced MLB player go for nothing in return. 

The Rays love value, and much of their success is built off of it, but have absolutely NO problem cutting bait on a player or trading them what is seemingly a year or two "too early."

The value strategy doesn't work if you don't apply it equally to your existing roster.

 

[bunsen82]

The Pursuit of Value . . .   

I am not sure that is what happened at the deadline.   They traded their expiring's then they dumped the bullpen - for a semi rebuild or full blown rebuild.   They are very inconstant with their messaging and plans in my opinion.  Ryan should have been traded . . . and maybe he still is although that train seems to have left.   They didn't think they could win the WS with the current roster,  so they are resetting for the next wave.  

I thought they still had a shot last year,  talent wise.  What I don't think they had was the correct team chemistry or mental fortitude.  Jax was done as a Twin last season,  it is what it is.  The original intention was to not trade him - although I don't know how factual that is. 

 Duran and the Varland trades are really the only trades we can state were done for Value purposes.  They both had multiple years of control, were performing well.   We flipped those 2 for Abel, Tait, Rojas, and Roden.   That is a lot of value for those 2 players and particularly Varland.   

Short term,  destroying an elite bullpen will not work.  I think we will have a functional bullpen this year. Ultimately I don't think anyone thinks the bullpen alone will get us to a WS in 2026 or 2027 had we kept the arms.   I think you will have a few arms step up to fill roles,  and we will have a bullpen reminiscent of early 2020's - 1-2 really good arms then a couple ok and then a bunch of fillers.  I don't see having 5 dominant to above average relievers any time soon.   2-3 years unless we begin to spend on it,  which is an area that Falvey has refused to spend.   

At this point our best hope would be Seranthony Dominguez and Rogers or Coloumbe.   to pair with the rest of what we have.  Dominguez you would be hoping you can control his dominant stuff and improve control to make him the fireman of the staff (the role Rogers had).   

Its not as much a pursuit of value what we did last year, as much as they acknowledged the team they had created was not going to achieve the goal they had of going to the playoffs and possibly a WS.   So they transferred the value they had on those players to future value.  Whether it comes to fruition or not is questionable.   

[Craig Arko]

34 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Hey wait a minute. Is this a veiled analogy for the United States? Hang in there Minneapolis. 

Thank you.

[bean5302]

Fangraphs talks about WAR and the limitations of player "Value" or how basing contracts on WAR is fraught with problems. 

i.e. Individual contributions and value depends largely on a team's performance as a whole. 1 WAR to a team which wins 88 games is worth dramatically more than 1 WAR is worth to a team which wins 65 games.

That's because extra revenue generation from playoffs is enormous. The impact to fan attendance and popularity between a 65 win and 66 win team is non-existent.

If Falvey is trying to maximize lifetime WAR / value per dollar, then he's failing to grasp the inherent value of a competitive window. I do believe Falvey leans heavily towards the lifetime WAR per dollar spent metric. I also believe the Pohlads, as owners, tend to view the team in this manner as well because their position always seems closely tied to over .500 is the goal. Winning the division is the reach goal.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Forgetting the baseball for a minute, as someone who lives out of state I just wanna say hang in there, Minneapolis. This can’t be fun to go through regardless of your politics. Just remember that this too shall pass.

[farmerguychris]

I don't blame Falvey for this.  He has to try and wait for 'value' when it comes to free agents because the owners -DO NOT CARE-  if we win or not.  What else do they need to do to prove its only about the money for them.  They keep telling us they want to win, and we keep believing them - Why?  The Pohlads are no better than the Nuttigs in Pittsburgh and the Monforts in Colorado.  

[Chris Hove]

Great article, Cody, and I 100% agree with your title. The bullpen is in complete shambles, with the Twins now having to convert some of their starters into bullpen roles and vice versa. I'm still not sure what the plan is moving forward, especially if Ryan and or Pablo get traded. It looks like this is what we will have come opening day.