Why the Twins Didn't Sign Luis Arraez

[Greggory Masterson]

Luis Arraez has the highest batting average among active MLB players. His .317 is 14 points higher than the next highest, Jose Altuve’s .303 average. There isn’t another player over .300.

Arraez also registered the lowest strikeout rate since Tony Gwynn in 1995, retired on strikes in just 21 of his 620 at-bats (3.1%).

And he might have been in the Twins’ range before the Josh Bell signing. Jon Becker of FanGraphs compiles public estimates for free agents, and Arraez’s mean contract is $10.25 million annually. Estimates are split between Arraez getting a one- or two-year contract, ranging from $8.5 million to $15 million per year, which could fit into the Twins’ budget for upgrading first base.

But this isn’t about why the Twins could sign Arraez. It’s about why they didn't.

And it’s not because batting average doesn’t matter.

Put succinctly, it’s because he hasn’t played like the player the Twins traded away in years.

Between 2019 and 2023 (his first year in Miami following the trade that brought Pablo López to Minnesota), Arraez slashed .326/.379/.427, and his .806 OPS was 22% above league-average. This season, he was just league-average, slashing .292/.327/.392. If you’ve been following Arraez at all, you probably know that his batting average dipped this season. But there’s more going on here than bad luck.

There’s bad process.

Yes, even with one of the highest batting averages in baseball, and one of the best strikeout rates in the past 50 years, Arraez’s plate appearances are not good. It almost seems as if he’s focused all of his energy into not striking out, ignoring all other aspects of a good approach.

Some of this regression can be seen in his ability to draw a walk. Arraez has never hunted walks, but he sat around league-average as a Twin between 2019 and 2022, walking 8.7% of the time. When combined with his .314 batting average in Minnesota, Arraez got to flirt with a .400 OBP. That went out the window in Miami in 2023, but his .354 average made up for that loss in walks, as he still got on base 39.3% of the time. Since then, though, he’s had a .337 OBP between 2024 and 2025, which is about 8% above the league average during that time.

A slightly above average OBP is good, but paired with a roughly league-average .392 slugging percentage (35 points lower than it was during the first five years of his career), the overall production doesn’t match the sexy batting average.

Within and beyond his ability to draw a walk lies another issue: his swing decisions. Yes, Arraez isn’t striking out. But that doesn’t mean he’s taking good plate appearances. In Minnesota, he chased pitches outside the strike zone about 23% of the time, far better than league-average. Since leaving, he’s swung at about 34% of pitches outside the zone, nearly 50% more often and much worse than league-average. Put another way, for every two balls he swung at outside the zone in Minnesota, he’s swung at three since.

He has a remarkable ability to make contact with pitches, even outside of the strike zone, and he’s gotten better at it with age, going from about making contact with balls outside of the zone 86% of the time in Minnesota to 91% in Miami and San Diego. He’s also making more contact with strikes, going from 95% in Minnesota to setting a career-high 97.3% this year.

But also, he just set his career low for swings on strikes, at 60%. So he swung at a career-high percent of pitches outside of the zone, but he also swung at a career-low number of pitches inside the zone. That’s not supposed to happen.  

As he has been making more contact, his batting average has gone down. And pitchers are throwing him more strikes in the process. In Minnesota, 50% of the pitches he saw were strikes, whereas it’s been 55% since 2023.

I just threw a bunch of numbers at you, so here’s something else. Remember Willians Astudillo? La Tortuga? Well, Arraez seems to have a bit of the La Tortuga disease, where because he’s a guy who can put wood on anything, he’s putting a lot of pitches he probably shouldn’t be swinging at in play, and poorly. But then you add into that equation that he’s also swinging at fewer strikes than he ever has. It’s perplexing. And it bears out in the quality of his contact.

Arraez has the slowest swing speed in the league, and he’s consistently at the bottom of the league in hitting the ball hard, but over the past two years, he’s almost become a caricature of himself. You don’t need to hit the ball hard to get hits. Arraez has mastered the art of dropping one into the shallow outfield. But you need to get at least a little speed off the bat to have good contact.

It won’t surprise you to learn, after reading all of that above, that Arraez just hit line drives at the lowest rate of his career and grounders at the second-highest rate of his career. He made much more soft contact in the last couple of seasons than he did in the first five, and he made much less hard contact (naturally).

Arraez’s batting average on balls in play has dropped quite remarkably, too. It was .343 through his first five years, and it’s been .307 since. Some of that is luck, but BABIP can be sticky, especially for a player like Arraez who specializes in putting the ball exactly where it needs to go to get a hit. And the ball hasn’t.

Arraez’s swing decisions are getting worse. His quality of contact is getting worse. And his back of the baseball card stats are getting worse because of that.

Add to that the fact that Arraez is, at this point, a first baseman or DH, with the ability to fill in at second if absolutely needed (he started three times the number of games as a DH as he did as a second baseman last year, ceding those opportunities to a roughly average defender in Jake Cronenworth). And he’s a poor defensive first baseman by most metrics. And he’s an average runner at best.

I’ll make one concession, one sed contra to the title of this article. He made better decisions in Minnesota. He made better contact. He had a higher batting average. If they know what’s wrong with him and how to fix it, and if everyone else in the league knows what you now know, if they’re all scared off by his slipping performance, then sure. Maybe they could have made him a lowball offer and try to fix him. Even in his current form, he would have outperformed most of the internal options at first base and DH. But he’s not someone to get in a bidding war over, chasing that .320 average dragon. There are other options.

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[HrbieFan]

Honestly, I don't care what kind of numbers you put out there, Arraez can hit a flipping baseball.  As we are moving closer to sanity from all the moneyball dumb decisions, GMs still will employ guys that don't strikeout 100+ times for the hope of 15 HRs. See balll, hit ball, advance the runner. I would love to watch 9 Arraez type bats in our lineup 

[LewFordLives]

For $10 million a year I would still take Arraez over Josh Bell any day of the week.  I'm curious to see what contract he eventually ends up with. He's a difficult player to judge.

[Whitey333]

Unbelievable.  More over analyzing a player over many flawed analytics.   People can twist stats for their purposes.  This is done many times to make marginal players look great or bad depending on the person's need.  An agent may twist analytics to get his player more money just as a writer uses analytics to try and prove his point.  Aareaz is a good player I agree.  I also agree hes not great.  On another front it would have probably been a good idea to sign him to try and generate fan interest.  Fans love him.  That's where analytics blow it IMO

[Greggory Masterson]

12 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Unbelievable.  More over analyzing a player over many flawed analytics.   People can twist stats for their purposes.  This is done many times to make marginal players look great or bad depending on the person's need.  An agent may twist analytics to get his player more money just as a writer uses analytics to try and prove his point.  Aareaz is a good player I agree.  I also agree hes not great.  On another front it would have probably been a good idea to sign him to try and generate fan interest.  Fans love him.  That's where analytics blow it IMO

Before analytics, no one believed in the wacko idea you should swing at strikes and take balls. Curse you Jonah Hill.

[nicksaviking]

I might have lost my mind if they'd signed him. Because it wouldn't have been because he's all that good, it would have been the lowest and most obvious fan pandering this club has ever dabbled in. Thank god they didn't think of it. 

Even at his peak Arraez was over adored because of the batting titles; I'm not interested in having to rehash those contentious arguments about the merits of a singles-filled batting average all season long.

[Brock Beauchamp]

38 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Honestly, I don't care what kind of numbers you put out there, Arraez can hit a flipping baseball.

Except in 2025, he hit that baseball really really weakly, and made a bunch of outs. I watched him a ton with the Padres, and specifically asked someone to write this piece because 2026 Luis Arraez is not 2021 Luis Arraez.

[jmlease1]

34 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Honestly, I don't care what kind of numbers you put out there, Arraez can hit a flipping baseball.  As we are moving closer to sanity from all the moneyball dumb decisions, GMs still will employ guys that don't strikeout 100+ times for the hope of 15 HRs. See balll, hit ball, advance the runner. I would love to watch 9 Arraez type bats in our lineup 

I suppose it's possible if you could find 9 Luis Arraez's it MIGHT work to have them them all play together (we'll ignore the fact that it would be one of the most shockingly terrible defensive teams in league history for this exercise), but I suspect once the OF starts playing super shallow on them and the pitchers realize that the lineup can't hurt them with extra base hits it's not going to go well (watch those double plays fly!)

But the real issue here is that you just didn't read the article. Yes, Arraez can hit the ball...but he can't get enough actual hits with his current approach to make him a starter, and he doesn't have the positional flexibility any longer to be a utility guy. Sure, he's hitting the ball, but it's not doing enough when he does and he's not offering much of anything else as he chases the ball out of the zone.

He left MN and stopped taking as many walks, hit into a lot more DPs, and started chasing contact to the exclusion of all else. The batting titles are cool, but seem to have changed who he wants to be as a player. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

For $10 million a year I would still take Arraez over Josh Bell any day of the week.  I'm curious to see what contract he eventually ends up with. He's a difficult player to judge.

Why? Arraez' OPS+ last year was 99, Bell's was 110. Arraez' 'advantage' is a higher batting average that supposedly translates into OBP - except last year it wasn't. Arraez was .327, and Bell was .325. 

Arraez doesn't run well, so all those singles take a lot of additional effort to translate into runs. Arraez last year had 675 plate appearances and scored 66 runs - a run per 10.2 platea appearances. Bell had 533 and scored 54 - a run for every 9.9 plate appearances. OK, so maybe all those hits drive in runs? Bell actually had 2 RBIs more than Arraez in far fewer plate apperances. Then there is the difference in HRs - Bell had 22 versus Arraez' 8 in far less plate appearances.

I 'get' that people like to watch him battle against pitchers, but the one thing he should do is score runs - and he doesn't really do all that well in that category.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Unbelievable.  More over analyzing a player over many flawed analytics.   People can twist stats for their purposes.  This is done many times to make marginal players look great or bad depending on the person's need.  An agent may twist analytics to get his player more money just as a writer uses analytics to try and prove his point.  Aareaz is a good player I agree.  I also agree hes not great.  On another front it would have probably been a good idea to sign him to try and generate fan interest.  Fans love him.  That's where analytics blow it IMO

I don't 'get' all the complaining about advanced analytics - you look under the hood at what are acknowledged as the great players, and their underlying analytics are similarly great. What about Arraez' performance stands out to you? The .292 BA last year? It only translated into 66 runs scored - that's about as many as Trevor Larnach last year, and Larnach had far fewer plate appearances. 

[jmlease1]

42 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

For $10 million a year I would still take Arraez over Josh Bell any day of the week.  I'm curious to see what contract he eventually ends up with. He's a difficult player to judge.

He's not that difficult to judge any longer, though. He's chasing contact like crazy and it's making him worse. He's not taking walks, he can't hit LHP, he's not a good defensive player, he's showing little power...he's a one trick pony and that trick ain't as good as it used to be.

The goal of a hitter is to avoid outs, not avoid strikeouts. The weak grounder to second sucks about as much as a K. (sure, sometimes it advances the runner, but sometimes it's a DP)

Plus, we're not paying Bell $10M.

[TopGunn#22]

We here in Minnesota have an over-appreciation of what Arraez brings to the table.  Pointing out that the Luis Arraez who played for the Twins, or won a batting title in his first year with the Marlins, hitting .354 with an OB% approaching .400, but is not the same guy, is SPOT ON.

When he was a Twin, he would consistently grind out AB's and take walks, which helped his OB%.  He doesn't do that anymore.  As just a pure offensive measure, Josh Bell will be much better hitting in the 6-hole than Arraez would have been.  

We've over-glamourized what he once was.  He's a shell of what he once was.

[bunsen82]

7 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

He's not that difficult to judge any longer, though. He's chasing contact like crazy and it's making him worse. He's not taking walks, he can't hit LHP, he's not a good defensive player, he's showing little power...he's a one trick pony and that trick ain't as good as it used to be.

The goal of a hitter is to avoid outs, not avoid strikeouts. The weak grounder to second sucks about as much as a K. (sure, sometimes it advances the runner, but sometimes it's a DP)

Plus, we're not paying Bell $10M.

We are paying Bell $5.75 million for this year,  likely half of what Arraez will get this year.  If we want Arraez we could still get him,  not sure where you would put him though.  

[Otaknam]

I’m not a fan of the current ML approach to selling out at bats to just hit homers, strikeouts be damned! Joey Gallo and Sano, for example. I have always liked Arraez’ old school approach to hitting, which is validated by his three batting titles. But the Twins need power from somewhere, and Luis isn’t providing that, especially at first base. Falvey deserves lots of criticism, but the Arraez for Lopez was an excellent decision.

[Woof Bronzer]

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

The goal of a hitter is to avoid outs, not avoid strikeouts. The weak grounder to second sucks about as much as a K. (sure, sometimes it advances the runner, but sometimes it's a DP)

 

The comparison isn't weak grounder to 2nd (the batter isn't trying to ground out) vs K, it's putting the ball in play vs K.  If you put the ball in play you have about a 30% chance (BABIP) of avoiding an out - some of those weak grounders will squeak through.  If you strike out you have about a .01% chance of avoiding an out.  

Hitters are about 10x more likely to get a hit on a ball in play than GIDP.  Not doing something to avoid the much rarer bad outcome, and thus sacrificing the much more common good outcome, is a poor strategy. 

If the goal is to avoid outs - and I agree that it is - putting the ball in play is a much, much better strategy.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

For $10 million a year I would still take Arraez over Josh Bell any day of the week.  I'm curious to see what contract he eventually ends up with. He's a difficult player to judge.

Me too, but Josh Bell is also pretty much the worst choice they could have made to fill first base this offseason.

[Coach Wheels]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Unbelievable.  More over analyzing a player over many flawed analytics.   People can twist stats for their purposes.  This is done many times to make marginal players look great or bad depending on the person's need.  An agent may twist analytics to get his player more money just as a writer uses analytics to try and prove his point.  Aareaz is a good player I agree.  I also agree hes not great.  On another front it would have probably been a good idea to sign him to try and generate fan interest.  Fans love him.  That's where analytics blow it IMO

Definitely taking analytics to a new level in this article, agree.

For my 2 cents, Twins need power somewhere in the lineup and Bell fills that void. A 1st baseman with 25 HR potential for $7 million makes sense; at 33 years of age, he has a chance to help this team. He's not Santana defensively but I don't have an issue with Bell as our 1st baseman.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Before analytics, no one believed in the wacko idea you should swing at strikes and take balls. Curse you Jonah Hill.

But there is hope that Arraez can get pickier. He can choose more wisely, and his numbers should improve. He's not going to get faster or better on defense, and he's still not a good choice for a long-term contract.

[Greggory Masterson]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

But there is hope that Arraez can get pickier. He can choose more wisely, and his numbers should improve. He's not going to get faster or better on defense, and he's still not a good choice for a long-term contract.

Absolutely. I went back and forth on whether to write a pro or con for Arraez because of that fact. *If* a team can help him make better decisions at the plate, like he did in Minnesota, he could be a steal on a one year pillow contract. I’m a massive Arraez fan; it’s just gotten painful to watch him the last couple years.

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Honestly, I don't care what kind of numbers you put out there, Arraez can hit a flipping baseball.  As we are moving closer to sanity from all the moneyball dumb decisions, GMs still will employ guys that don't strikeout 100+ times for the hope of 15 HRs. See balll, hit ball, advance the runner. I would love to watch 9 Arraez type bats in our lineup 

I've got great news for you. Josh Bell strikes out at a rate that is significantly lower than MLB average.

He too can hit a flipping baseball.

[JD-TWINS]

I would sign Luis Arraez for 3 years and $37M in a heartbeat!

The analytics shown here and the tone is Luis isn’t a worthwhile offensive player and he swings at too many balls ……. has the writer seen Tony Oliva or Kirby Puckett hit??

Many here think someone (maybe himself) can fix Eddie Julien or Matt Wallner. However, a guy (Arraez) can’t be coached up to swing at pitches in the zone?……….TAKING pitches to boost OBP are Julien & Wallner’s strong suit! They both are unbelievable in taking great pitches for strikes and for striking out in key situations!! Can’t put ball in play in key situations. In ‘24 Julien lead MLB in strikeouts looking and closest guy in backwards K’s had 100 more AB’s.

Working with a guy that accidentally gets 180-200 hits/year and strikes out 3-5% of his AB’s is a waste of time though???? I still contend having him hit 5th in the TWIN’s line-up every day generates 90 RBI at a minimum.

Too late for Arraez. Bell signing is better than some other options available. So, hopefully, leaves $15M to spend on another depth player and a couple serviceable relievers.

Sure would be nice to figure out 1B with an internal option by Spring of ‘27!!!

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

For $10 million a year I would still take Arraez over Josh Bell any day of the week.  I'm curious to see what contract he eventually ends up with. He's a difficult player to judge.

If you are trying to compete, spending $10m - maybe half your free agent budget - on a 1 WAR player is as terrible as spending $7m on a 0.6 WAR player.  

In order to compete the Twins need to find serious value.  Signing Bell or Arraez is nibbling at the edges, an approach that led to a disastrous 2024 and an embarrassing 2025.  

I'll keep saying it.   In order to compete the Twins need to add 25+ wins to this roster.  Guys like Bell and Arraez don't do that.  

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Before analytics, no one believed in the wacko idea you should swing at strikes and take balls. Curse you Jonah Hill.

  Bull****.

Hard to take anyone seriously who thinks this.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Not sure if signing him is a good idea or not. There's not really a place for him to play other than DH. But didn't he play with a bad thumb last year? That could explain a lot of his struggles in 25.

[Greggory Masterson]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

  Bull****.

Next you’re gonna tell me no one thought line drives were good until analytics

[NYCTK]

25 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

If you are trying to compete, spending $10m - maybe half your free agent budget - on a 1 WAR player is as terrible as spending $7m on a 0.6 WAR player.  

In order to compete the Twins need to find serious value.  Signing Bell or Arraez is nibbling at the edges, an approach that led to a disastrous 2024 and an embarrassing 2025.  

I'll keep saying it.   In order to compete the Twins need to add 25+ wins to this roster.  Guys like Bell and Arraez don't do that.  

The problem is not signing Bell. The problem is the Twins are run by idiots that think this team stands a chance at 85 wins, rather than the reality that this team will be lucky to get to 75. 

There is no magic solution to turn this terrible club into a contender this offseason, so there is no move that would placate fans like yourself. 

The fact that they aren't trading Joe Ryan, at a minimum, is malpractice. And as it is, I look forward to cheering on our lottery position next September. 

[Woof Bronzer]

3 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The problem is not signing Bell. The problem is the Twins are run by idiots that think this team stands a chance at 85 wins, rather than the reality that this team will be lucky to get to 75. 

There is no magic solution to turn this terrible club into a contender this offseason, so there is no move that would placate fans like yourself. 

I think you misread me.  I don't think they should be deluding themselves into competing, because this is a bad roster that keeps showing us they aren't good enough.  I want the FO to be honest about the roster and commit to a rebuild that will start us on the path to being actually, truly competitive in a couple years.   

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I might have lost my mind if they'd signed him. Because it wouldn't have been because he's all that good, it would have been the lowest and most obvious fan pandering this club has ever dabbled in. Thank god they didn't think of it. 

Even at his peak Arraez was over adored because of the batting titles; I'm not interested in having to rehash those contentious arguments about the merits of a singles-filled batting average all season long.

Guys, if the Arraez of 21 019-2023 was available I would try to sign him in a heartbeat. The problem is that guy is not who Arraez is any more. He's a slow, plodding singles hitter who hit .292 with a .327 OBP and .392 SLG with a 99 OPS+ in 2025 after going .314/.396/.392 in 2024. His OPS plus the last 4 years? 107, 100, 108, 99, i.e, basically a league average guy who is a lousy fielder with no power and no SB potential. In other words, in 2025 he was less than Austin Martin at the plate without the upside from stolen bases Martin has, can't field a position whereas Martin is an above average LF from all the stats, and he is 10-12 times the Austin Martin price. If you don't want Martin starting every day, you don't want Arraez on your team. Greggory is right, the only sane argument for bringing him back is if you can get him back to what he was when he was in MN. The objective evidence says you can't. Is Josh Bell any better? Yes, although not a lot better in the field on the basepaths, but Bell brings 20-25 HR power and RBI potential that Arraez doesn't have. If you gotta choose between those 2 for a 1 year deal, Bell is the better choice and it isn't really very close.   

Look, I get that we all want the team to get better, many of us would question (or hate on) Falvey if he signed Aaron Judge or cured cancer, and at least I have very positive nostalgic visions of Arraez when he was in MN. Unfortunately, those visions don't win baseball games. Arraez isn't that guy any more. Falvey may only have clearly won 2 trades in his career but Arraez for Lopez was one of them.  Luis won't help us much this year and he's not along term answer for after this year. I don't think Bell will help a lot either, but he's going to help more, was cheaper, and will be easier to trade because of his track record and power. Let's not forget Bell hit .267/.353/.489(.842) after the All Star break last year and had a 110 OPS+ for the season after a lousy start. Picking up Bell may turn out to be a mistake, but picking up Arraez would definitely be a mistake IMHO. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I think you misread me.  I don't think they should be deluding themselves into competing, because this is a bad roster that keeps showing us they aren't good enough.  I want the FO to be honest about the roster and commit to a rebuild that will start us on the path to being actually, truly competitive in a couple years.   

I agree with this to a point but I just don't know the answer to the short term 1B issue this team has. I would love for them to trade for a Colby Mayo or even Ryan Mountcastle and commit to trying to find a long term answer at the position. I'd even support signing Ryan O'Hearn to a 2-3 year deal at the predicted $11-15M a year, but it sounds like he doesn't want to come to MN because he wants to go to a contender. Failing that kind of trade or signing, we just don't have a youngish 1B on the way up to play. I get trading for a 1 year stop gap at 1B unless we are going to commit to moving Larnach there (and teach him to hit LH pitching) or move Wallner there (my choice), but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. I'd love to hear that we have someone else in the system but I just don't see that guy.    

[GNess]

I don''t dispute your excellent analysis based on these numbers why would the Twins or any other team pay Arraez $10 M+? Surely all MLB teams have access to this level of analysis and much more.

It seems though that there will be a market for Arraez because bottom line - this guy can hit.