Why the Twins Didn't Sign Luis Arraez

[Woof Bronzer]

3 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I agree with this to a point but I just don't know the answer to the short term 1B issue this team has. I would love for them to trade for a Colby Mayo or even Ryan Mountcastle and commit to trying to find a long term answer at the position. I'd even support signing Ryan O'Hearn to a 2-3 year deal at the predicted $11-15M a year, but it sounds like he doesn't want to come to MN because he wants to go to a contender. Failing that kind of trade or signing, we just don't have a youngish 1B on the way up to play. I get trading for a 1 year stop gap at 1B unless we are going to commit to moving Larnach there (and teach him to hit LH pitching) or move Wallner there (my choice), but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. I'd love to hear that we have someone else in the system but I just don't see that guy.    

Sure, but the short term 1B issue is not the difference between this team competing in 2026 or not.  They could put Juan Soto there and he's not turning this into a playoff team.  Paying a washed up vet on a 1 year deal and hope he bumps us from 65 wins to 66 is pointless.

[NYCTK]

18 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I think you misread me.  I don't think they should be deluding themselves into competing, because this is a bad roster that keeps showing us they aren't good enough.  I want the FO to be honest about the roster and commit to a rebuild that will start us on the path to being actually, truly competitive in a couple years.   

Fair enough. I guess you and I are on the same page, but I just can't be bothered by a nothing deal like this. It's not stopping anything, nor is it really helping. It's just filling a hole on a bad team. 

I think they should have signed someone like Bell, but after trading away Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton and getting someone like Ryan Clifford into their depth chart in return. 

 

[Amateur6]

Analytics are most valuable in full context.   Compared to others, esp Bell, how many pitches does Arraez see?  That’s a stat that has great value to a team battery.  How many 2-strike pitches?  Many of his surplus “poor contact swings” or “swings at balls outside the strike zone” are merely him defending the plate with 2 strikes in place, which he does extremely well.  Weak balls in play aren’t a good outcome but numerous fowl balls help the at-bats that follow, and get the starter out sooner.

[Dennesey55347]

Dear Twins Daily,

You have my express written consent to delete over-the-top negative/personal attack responses to your articles. If I disagree, I'll let you know with nothing more than a retort : )

My brother-in-law had (shared) season tix through work, and we would hit 2-3 games per season. We just happened to be at the game in 2022 where Arraez hit his only career grand slam, and that was one of the most exciting hits we saw in person. I'm not into jerseys and have only ever owned one player shirt....Arraez. My interest was almost exclusively on him game to game. He felt like a mash of Gwynn and Ichiro.

I'm not sure if he desires to return, but I would love to have him back- even in a lineup that's pretty horrible at advancing runners home. Bell will give us a HR every six games, while Arraez would probably get on base 12 times in the same span. I'd take the latter.

 

 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

You can over analyze any player and find stats to make them look bad. The truth is the guy can hit. Tony Gwynn lite. I would take Arraez over any free agent 1B this year not named Pete. Putting the ball in play makes things happen a lot more than striking out. In this time of homerun or bust, a player like Arraez is undervalued and under appreciated. 

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

 

The fact that they aren't trading Joe Ryan, at a minimum, is malpractice. And as it is, I look forward to cheering on our lottery position next September. 

Are we eligible for the lottery? I can't keep track of these ever-changing rules.

[Greggory Masterson]

36 minutes ago, Amateur6 said:

Analytics are most valuable in full context.   Compared to others, esp Bell, how many pitches does Arraez see?  That’s a stat that has great value to a team battery.

This is a great question and one I looked up while writing this.

among the 147 qualified batters this season, Arraez ranked 123rd at 3.64 pitches per plate appearance. League average is 3.88. The average team has 4 qualified batters (i.e., 501 plate appearances or more) who saw more pitches per plate appearance than Arraez this season.

the simple explanation for this is that he is swinging more often than at any time in his career, in line with what’s written in this piece. He sees fewer pitches because he’s more likely to put them in play early with his elite bat to ball skills.

like Willians Astudillo

Edited December 16, 2025 by Greggory Masterson

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Sure, but the short term 1B issue is not the difference between this team competing in 2026 or not.  They could put Juan Soto there and he's not turning this into a playoff team.  Paying a washed up vet on a 1 year deal and hope he bumps us from 65 wins to 66 is pointless.

If they had Juan Soto on a 1-year deal, at least they would have something useful to trade at the deadline. Nobody wanted Josh Bell last year and Arizona only wanted Bell the previous year because their starting 1B had season-ending injury. That is the other advantage of signing better players - they can be traded for prospects.

[Riverbrian]

The front office said they were looking for a power bat. 

We can debate weather Josh Bell has a power bat or not. 

Josh Bell isn't a true power bat in comparison to actual power bats but compared to Arraez from a power perspective... Josh Bell is King Kong.  

It doesn't matter if any of us think Josh Bell is a power bat. They said they wanted a power bat and Josh Bell is the guy they chose to fulfill that want.

Now they can move on to finding the infielder they said they were looking for.    

[mnfireman]

56 minutes ago, Amateur6 said:

Analytics are most valuable in full context.   Compared to others, esp Bell, how many pitches does Arraez see?  That’s a stat that has great value to a team battery.  How many 2-strike pitches?  Many of his surplus “poor contact swings” or “swings at balls outside the strike zone” are merely him defending the plate with 2 strikes in place, which he does extremely well.  Weak balls in play aren’t a good outcome but numerous fowl balls help the at-bats that follow, and get the starter out sooner.

Arraez 3.64 pitches/PA, Bell 3.92 pitches/PA, league average 3.82 pitches/PA - Arraez doesn't extend PA.

[Road trip]

I blame Petco.  I'm only half joking.  This is what happened to Arraez when he was traded to the Padres in 2024:

Home or Away

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Home	77	74	337	317	37	85	11	1	2	22	5	0	13	14	.268	.307	.328	.636	104	12	5	2	0	2	1	.276	72	79
Away	73	72	335	320	46	115	21	2	2	24	4	3	11	15	.359	.385	.456	.841	146	6	3	0	1	1	1	.372	128	140

 

As recently as 2024 Arraez was great on the road, but unplayable at home.  That'll mess with a guy's head.  Hence, the change in approach, and by 2025 he wasn't hitting very well anywhere.

He will be somewhere else in 2026.  He's a good bounce-back candidate if he's healthy.  I'll be rooting for him, even if he never plays for the Twins again.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are so many people in this thread that have very obviously not watched Luis Arraez take a plate appearance since 2022.

[TJSweens]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

If you are trying to compete, spending $10m - maybe half your free agent budget - on a 1 WAR player is as terrible as spending $7m on a 0.6 WAR player.  

In order to compete the Twins need to find serious value.  Signing Bell or Arraez is nibbling at the edges, an approach that led to a disastrous 2024 and an embarrassing 2025.  

I'll keep saying it.   In order to compete the Twins need to add 25+ wins to this roster.  Guys like Bell and Arraez don't do that.  

While I put very little stock in WAR, I agree with your point. Guys like Arraez and Bell don't move the meter and the Twins are not willing to go out and get players that do move the meter. They go out and get place holders and wait for a future that never comes.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Dennesey55347 said:

Dear Twins Daily,

You have my express written consent to delete over-the-top negative/personal attack responses to your articles. If I disagree, I'll let you know with nothing more than a retort : )

My brother-in-law had (shared) season tix through work, and we would hit 2-3 games per season. We just happened to be at the game in 2022 where Arraez hit his only career grand slam, and that was one of the most exciting hits we saw in person. I'm not into jerseys and have only ever owned one player shirt....Arraez. My interest was almost exclusively on him game to game. He felt like a mash of Gwynn and Ichiro.

I'm not sure if he desires to return, but I would love to have him back- even in a lineup that's pretty horrible at advancing runners home. Bell will give us a HR every six games, while Arraez would probably get on base 12 times in the same span. I'd take the latter.

 

 

not at the higher contract.   Bell is a better buy and easier to flip at the deadline.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I would sign Luis Arraez for 3 years and $37M in a heartbeat!

The analytics shown here and the tone is Luis isn’t a worthwhile offensive player and he swings at too many balls ……. has the writer seen Tony Oliva or Kirby Puckett hit??

Many here think someone (maybe himself) can fix Eddie Julien or Matt Wallner. However, a guy (Arraez) can’t be coached up to swing at pitches in the zone?……….TAKING pitches to boost OBP are Julien & Wallner’s strong suit! They both are unbelievable in taking great pitches for strikes and for striking out in key situations!! Can’t put ball in play in key situations. In ‘24 Julien lead MLB in strikeouts looking and closest guy in backwards K’s had 100 more AB’s.

Working with a guy that accidentally gets 180-200 hits/year and strikes out 3-5% of his AB’s is a waste of time though???? I still contend having him hit 5th in the TWIN’s line-up every day generates 90 RBI at a minimum.

Too late for Arraez. Bell signing is better than some other options available. So, hopefully, leaves $15M to spend on another depth player and a couple serviceable relievers.

Sure would be nice to figure out 1B with an internal option by Spring of ‘27!!!

No way.   That is a huge overpay for a slap hitter on the downside.    Bell wont save us, but is a cheaper and better option than Arraez would be.

[Danchat]

I love me some Arraez, but as has already been stated the 2021-23 version of him vs the 2024-25 version has been very different. I appreciate the deep dive into the analytics to explain the regression between those two versions.

His warts (lack of defensive ability, slow running speed) were a lot easier to defend when he was an elite hitter at the plate, but now it's a lot harder to justify. He's only 29 and if a coaching staff can get his bat speed up and get him to be a little more aggressive at the plate, you might get the better version of him. I wouldn't say no to a gamble like that, but once again with him stuck at 1B/DH at makes him hard to pen into a lineup... hence why he's already played for 3 different teams at this point.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, mickster said:

not at the higher contract.   Bell is a better buy and easier to flip at the deadline.

Nobody wanted Josh Bell last year at the deadline and he was owed less money than he'll be owed this year.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There are so many people in this thread that have very obviously not watched Luis Arraez take a plate appearance since 2022.

Nostalgia is a powerful drug!

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I would sign Luis Arraez for 3 years and $37M in a heartbeat!

The analytics shown here and the tone is Luis isn’t a worthwhile offensive player and he swings at too many balls ……. has the writer seen Tony Oliva or Kirby Puckett hit??

Many here think someone (maybe himself) can fix Eddie Julien or Matt Wallner. However, a guy (Arraez) can’t be coached up to swing at pitches in the zone?……….TAKING pitches to boost OBP are Julien & Wallner’s strong suit! They both are unbelievable in taking great pitches for strikes and for striking out in key situations!! Can’t put ball in play in key situations. In ‘24 Julien lead MLB in strikeouts looking and closest guy in backwards K’s had 100 more AB’s.

Working with a guy that accidentally gets 180-200 hits/year and strikes out 3-5% of his AB’s is a waste of time though???? I still contend having him hit 5th in the TWIN’s line-up every day generates 90 RBI at a minimum.

Too late for Arraez. Bell signing is better than some other options available. So, hopefully, leaves $15M to spend on another depth player and a couple serviceable relievers.

Sure would be nice to figure out 1B with an internal option by Spring of ‘27!!!

LOL, you're comparing Arraez to 2 Hall of Famers? Here's something that Kirby & Tony did consistently: hit the ball hard. Yes, they swung the bat a lot and chased balls, but they also didn't just slap the ball around. Kirby became a star when he showed he could turn on a ball and put it in the seats (along with his CF defense, of course) as part of his hitting package. In Tony's years either winning batting titles (or leading the league in hits) his lowest SLG% was .491. Arraez right now looks like old, broken down Tony O when his ruined knees kept him from playing anything other than DH, not the real deal.

Giving Arraez 3 years and $37M is a terrible, terrible use of resources. Good grief.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Dennesey55347 said:

Dear Twins Daily,

You have my express written consent to delete over-the-top negative/personal attack responses to your articles. If I disagree, I'll let you know with nothing more than a retort : )

My brother-in-law had (shared) season tix through work, and we would hit 2-3 games per season. We just happened to be at the game in 2022 where Arraez hit his only career grand slam, and that was one of the most exciting hits we saw in person. I'm not into jerseys and have only ever owned one player shirt....Arraez. My interest was almost exclusively on him game to game. He felt like a mash of Gwynn and Ichiro.

I'm not sure if he desires to return, but I would love to have him back- even in a lineup that's pretty horrible at advancing runners home. Bell will give us a HR every six games, while Arraez would probably get on base 12 times in the same span. I'd take the latter.

I'm not going to tell anyone not to love a player for their own personal enjoyment, but if Arraez gets on base 12 times in 6 games, a) his OBP will have turned back the clock by 3+ years, and b) Bell probably still gets on 10 to go with the homer. It's not 12 vs 1.

[howeda7]

For $10 million or less, I'd gladly take Arreaz over Bell. 

[Road trip]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There are so many people in this thread that have very obviously not watched Luis Arraez take a plate appearance since 2022.

To be fair, the best year of his career isn't ancient history... it was 2023 with the Marlins where he put up .354/.393/.469 - even managed 10 HR's.  4.6 bWAR for folks that want to boil it down to one simple number.  

I don't advocate for the Twins signing him as he's not a great fit for a rebuild or the current state of their roster.  They've already collected a more than sufficient number of left handed "should be a DH" candidates.  However he's the kind of player that some wealthy and contending franchise will sign to a one or two year contract just in case he can be returned to prior form. 

[amjgt]

4 hours ago, Dennesey55347 said:

I'm not sure if he desires to return, but I would love to have him back- even in a lineup that's pretty horrible at advancing runners home. Bell will give us a HR every six games, while Arraez would probably get on base 12 times in the same span. I'd take the latter.

On average, over the last three years (which includes one of his batting titles), Luis Arraez has gotten on base one more time than Josh Bell for every every ~7 games they played. 

[amjgt]

One has to wonder, if the only thing holding Luis back from returning to near his batting title form was the thought of being more selective at the plate and deciding to make more forceful contact, why he chose not to do those things before heading into free agency, and instead decided to continue an approach that was yielding poor results. 

[Doube Duty Dave]

8 hours ago, arby58 said:

Why? Arraez' OPS+ last year was 99, Bell's was 110. Arraez' 'advantage' is a higher batting average that supposedly translates into OBP - except last year it wasn't. Arraez was .327, and Bell was .325. 

Arraez doesn't run well, so all those singles take a lot of additional effort to translate into runs. Arraez last year had 675 plate appearances and scored 66 runs - a run per 10.2 platea appearances. Bell had 533 and scored 54 - a run for every 9.9 plate appearances. OK, so maybe all those hits drive in runs? Bell actually had 2 RBIs more than Arraez in far fewer plate apperances. Then there is the difference in HRs - Bell had 22 versus Arraez' 8 in far less plate appearances.

I 'get' that people like to watch him battle against pitchers, but the one thing he should do is score runs - and he doesn't really do all that well in that category.

For the love of all things holy, this type of statistical contortionism has to stop. OPS+, OBP, and WAR, are stats that overcomplicate this simple, beautiful game. I would argue that these stats overvalue walks and home runs, forgive strikeouts, and undervalue batting average. If there is runner on third base with two outs, who would rather have up? Statistically, Arraez will get the RBI 29% of the time compared to 23% for Bell. I like Bell for his pop, and think he is an upgrade for the lineup, but please don't disparage a high average hitter because all he does is get hits. That's nonsense logic. Harmon Killebrew was the first MLB player to hit 40 home runs and bat less than .250 in a season. In 2025, 20 teams batted .250 or less. The Twins batted .238 as a team. We use to make fun of players like Rob Deer who struck out a ton, but hit for power. Now we have an entire league of players like him. Three outcomes... I can't find the stats to support this, but based on my eyeballs, I would guess that the Twins produced a higher percentage of runs via home run than league average. My guess is that well more than half of their runs came via home run. Conversely, my hunch is that contending teams like the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Phillies had higher batting averages and didn't rely on the long ball as much to generate runs. I'm not suggesting putting together a collection of punch and Judy hitters, but I don't want a team filled with Wallner, Vazquez and Clemens either.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Doube Duty Dave said:

For the love of all things holy, this type of statistical contortionism has to stop. OPS+, OBP, and WAR, are stats that overcomplicate this simple, beautiful game. I would argue that these stats overvalue walks and home runs, forgive strikeouts, and undervalue batting average. If there is runner on third base with two outs, who would rather have up? Statistically, Arraez will get the RBI 29% of the time compared to 23% for Bell. I like Bell for his pop, and think he is an upgrade for the lineup, but please don't disparage a high average hitter because all he does is get hits. That's nonsense logic. 

Arraez had a .292 batting average last year, and a .327 OBP. OBP 'overcomplicates' things? That's nonsense logic - getting on base is a key part of scoring runs. Bell had a .237 batting average and a .325 OBP. In essence, they were on base about the same percentage of the time. Are you seriously suggesting that Arraez was as valuable offensively when 77% of his hits were singles, and only 4% were HRS, compared to Bell's 64% singles and 20% HRs? Math is beautiful too, and baseball has lots of math imbedded in it. 

 

[DocBauer]

I have extremely fond memories of Arraez as a Twin, and what he accomplished. It was a sad/happy day when he was moved for Lopez. But memories of Arraez as a Twin don't mean he's the same hitter he was AS a Twin. 

I agree with Gleeman that...for some reason unfathomable to me..."analytics" has become a sour word for many. Change "analytics" to "information" in your mind and it might make more sense. INFORMATION has been used in baseball almost since it's inception. EXAMPLE: bring in a LH from the pen to face a key LH batter in a key moment. 

Arraez is/was an extremely gifted HITTER. But he never had speed, and never had much power. Period. The INFORMATION presented in the OP is actually very simple, he doesn't BB very much, and he's swinging more and more at pitches that aren't strikes, believing he can contact the ball for hits that don't happen.

It's not an insult to the Arraez we knew and loved as a Twin. It's just a fact. And it's why his AVG and OB% have been dipping. 

What troubles me as a fan of Arraez is that you would almost EXPECT that as a veteran hitter, he might become MORE selective at the plate as an almost 29yo veteran, taking some BB, waiting for a good pitch to hit, etc. Instead, his trend has been to be LESS selective. MAYBE he can be "fixed" and become the HITTER he was earlier in his career. But the INFORMATION says he's on a downward plane.

This is NOT an insult to Arraez, but he's just not a great athlete. He has had knee problems. He doesn't run especially well and is not a great defender. He doesn't have a lot of power. So when his GIFT of being a special HITTER suddenly declines, what do you have other than a bench player, PH?

MAYBE, and HOPEFULLY Arraez finds his previous, much more disciplined self and hits over .300 again and helps his next team as a top of the order hitter. Again, I'm a FAN and want the best for him. But he isn't a fit for what the Twins need right now, whether you like the Bell signing or not.

[Doube Duty Dave]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Arraez had a .292 batting average last year, and a .327 OBP. OBP 'overcomplicates' things? That's nonsense logic - getting on base is a key part of scoring runs. Bell had a .237 batting average and a .325 OBP. In essence, they were on base about the same percentage of the time. Are you seriously suggesting that Arraez was as valuable offensively when 77% of his hits were singles, and only 4% were HRS, compared to Bell's 64% singles and 20% HRs? Math is beautiful too, and baseball has lots of math imbedded in it. 

 

A runner on 3rd with two outs... Getting on base is important, but so is getting a hit with runners in scoring position. With the bases empty, a single is equal to a walk. With runners on base, a hit is waaaaay better. YES! I AM seriously arguing that Arraez was valuable. His 77% singles represent more hits than Bell's combined 84% singles plus home runs because he batted 55 points higher. Arraez had 181 hits. Bell had 111. A base hit can advance a runner two bases, score a runner from second or third, etc. Hits and batting average matter. The problem with new statistical analysis is that it overvalues home runs (slugging percentage) and forgives strikeouts. Solo home runs and strikeouts. That's what we're measuring. In my opinion, it's much better to string a few hits together than hoping to hit one more solo shot than the other team. It's certainly more fun to watch. Need another home team example of how the modern stats are clouding our reasoning? Trevor Larnach isn't perceived by TD contributors to be as valuable a hitter as Wallner. Larnach batted .250 and was second on the team in RBI (including some clutch hits). Wallner batted .202 and struck out 33.9% of the time. I'm 56 years old with a torn rotary cuff, and I think I can sneak a fastball by him at the top of the zone. He hits for some power. Yippee. It does not make up for the fact that he is nearly an automatic out. Despite this, Wallner is penciled in the 2026 lineup and everyone is hoping to see Larnach traded, Math IS beautiful and is embedded in the sport. We agree on that. I am suggesting that the formulas we use are measuring the wrong variables. And don't get me started on Kody Clemens...  

[the_brute_squad]

Luis "regressed" for one season so he becomes unsignable. Meanwhile, Bell has never won any batting championships and never will. Faulty logic.

[jmlease1]

54 minutes ago, the_brute_squad said:

Luis "regressed" for one season so he becomes unsignable. Meanwhile, Bell has never won any batting championships and never will. Faulty logic.

It's not one season, though. it's 2. And he's not unsignable, but he is a poor fit for the Twins, who are looking for more thump in the lineup and don't need more LH hitters who can't hit LHP. For all that Arraez is a good hitter still, he doesn't hit LHP and has always been poor at it.

Basing a preference for Arraez on him winning batting titles in the past while ignoring everything else is faulty logic.