Doube Duty Dave

Hopefully he figures it out, but right now he is a Minnesota-grown Joey Gallo. If a pitcher misses down and over the plate, Wallner can hit it. Anything else and he has no chance. I have said it before, but I'm 56 years old with a partially torn rotator cuff and can sneak a fastball past him high in the zone. If the next Matt Trueblood article is about what a potent offensive force Kody Clemens is, I think I'll puke.

Why all the TD Larnach bashing? Statistically he was one of the team’s best hitters. Dump Clemens and his .213 average. He had a hit month and an half and quickly regressed to the mean.

What do you think about using him like the Twins did with Johan Santana early in his career…as a long reliever and spot starter. This would keep him stretched out and expose him to Big League hitters, essentially easing him into a starting spot.

You are right, but Arraez is going to get a hit 29% of the time and Bell 23% of the time. That matters, too. I like the Bell signing, but don't love the current statistical analysis that undervalues batting average, overvalues power and forgives high strikeout percentages.

First of all, I'm not arguing Arraez over Bell. They are vastly differently hitters and both have unique value to a team. The niche situation of a runner on 3rd with two outs is simply an example to illustrate that base hits matter. The real stat is that Arraez had 70 more base hits than Bell. Base hits are more valuable than walks. XBHs are even more valuable. Bell has the advantage there. My bigger concern is that the Twins batted .238 as a team with a strikeout rate of 22.6%. That's not going to get it done.

I like Bell. It was a decent signing. I'm not saying that I would have signed Arraez instead of him. That being said, I stand by my argument that the current statistical analysis overvalues power, undervalues batting average and accepts high strikeout percentages. The Twins batted .238 and struck out 22.6% of the time as a team last season. That's not going to get it done. It's not very much fun to watch either.

I like Bell, but I like Arraez, too. Bell will be a nice addition to the lineup. They are two completely different type of hitters. Both bring value to a team. I simply don't like people undervaluing hitters like Arraez because they only get singles. As I've said, I think the current trend in statistical analysis overvalues power, undervalues batting average, and accepts strikeouts.

A runner on 3rd with two outs... Getting on base is important, but so is getting a hit with runners in scoring position. With the bases empty, a single is equal to a walk. With runners on base, a hit is waaaaay better. YES! I AM seriously arguing that Arraez was valuable. His 77% singles represent more hits than Bell's combined 84% singles plus home runs because he batted 55 points higher. Arraez had 181 hits. Bell had 111. A base hit can advance a runner two bases, score a runner from second or third, etc. Hits and batting average matter. The problem with new statistical analysis is that it overvalues home runs (slugging percentage) and forgives strikeouts. Solo home runs and strikeouts. That's what we're measuring. In my opinion, it's much better to string a few hits together than hoping to hit one more solo shot than the other team. It's certainly more fun to watch. Need another home team example of how the modern stats are clouding our reasoning? Trevor Larnach isn't perceived by TD contributors to be as valuable a hitter as Wallner. Larnach batted .250 and was second on the team in RBI (including some clutch hits). Wallner batted .202 and struck out 33.9% of the time. I'm 56 years old with a torn rotary cuff, and I think I can sneak a fastball by him at the top of the zone. He hits for some power. Yippee. It does not make up for the fact that he is nearly an automatic out. Despite this, Wallner is penciled in the 2026 lineup and everyone is hoping to see Larnach traded, Math IS beautiful and is embedded in the sport. We agree on that. I am suggesting that the formulas we use are measuring the wrong variables. And don't get me started on Kody Clemens...

For the love of all things holy, this type of statistical contortionism has to stop. OPS+, OBP, and WAR, are stats that overcomplicate this simple, beautiful game. I would argue that these stats overvalue walks and home runs, forgive strikeouts, and undervalue batting average. If there is runner on third base with two outs, who would rather have up? Statistically, Arraez will get the RBI 29% of the time compared to 23% for Bell. I like Bell for his pop, and think he is an upgrade for the lineup, but please don't disparage a high average hitter because all he does is get hits. That's nonsense logic. Harmon Killebrew was the first MLB player to hit 40 home runs and bat less than .250 in a season. In 2025, 20 teams batted .250 or less. The Twins batted .238 as a team. We use to make fun of players like Rob Deer who struck out a ton, but hit for power. Now we have an entire league of players like him. Three outcomes... I can't find the stats to support this, but based on my eyeballs, I would guess that the Twins produced a higher percentage of runs via home run than league average. My guess is that well more than half of their runs came via home run. Conversely, my hunch is that contending teams like the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Phillies had higher batting averages and didn't rely on the long ball as much to generate runs. I'm not suggesting putting together a collection of punch and Judy hitters, but I don't want a team filled with Wallner, Vazquez and Clemens either.

Those are fair points. The reason I move on from Buxton and Lopez is that they are older and beginning their years of regression. The move would be a logical step in a more aggressive restocking/rebuilding effort. You'll get more for them at the deadline that you will now. It's logically inconsistent for me to suggest keeping Ryan. I'm old school and believe that aces are a rare commodity. I don't trade aces as a matter of principle. Perhaps we'll have new owners when it comes time to re-sign Ryan. If not, we can deal him during the final year of his contract. In the meantime, we get to enjoy the "experience."

I would definitely build around this team's YOUNG core and pitching depth. Pitching is hard to develop and I think Falvey has done a good job of acquiring quality arms. Apel and Zebby have a chance to be very, very good, Bradley can be a decent 3 or 4 starter, and the minor league system is loaded with potential. Just by playing the laws of probability at least one or two of the pitchers like Festa, Raya, Sota, Preilip, Morris, Klein, etc. are going to be at least serviceable pitchers on a good team. I wouldn't trade from this strength to acquire marginal, journeymen bats. Instead, I would keep Ryan, Lopez and Buxton and let the young arms buck. This is a strategy that is a bridge to the stud bats like Jenkins that are coming soon. Falvey, please go out and find a free agent bat or two. That's the problem with this team. On a controversial note, the Twins absolutely need to keep and play Larnach, and Lee is going to be a stud hitter - may win a batting title. His hands are too good for him to fail. The criteria I would use when looking for hitters is someone who has a real chance to get a knock with a runner on third base with two outs. In other words... BATTING AVERAGE MATTERS. OPS is fine and WAR is okay, but tell me you want Wallner or Clemens in the box in a tie game with two outs in the ninth with a runner on third. Wallner batted .202 and Clemens .213. That's the type of BA that pitchers used to have! This team is not going to compete for a World Series next season, but they can take developmental steps forward. If a couple of prospects become superstars, in a couple of years, who knows? If it appears that this plan isn't going to work, Buxton and Lopez can be dealt at the trade deadline. Under no circumstance would I trade Ryan. He's your ace for the next five years.

The Twins should start converting Waller to the bullpen now to get ahead of the game. He’s Gallo 2.0.