Letting Sonny Gray Walk Sparked the Twins’ Downward Spiral

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

 

The Minnesota Twins made a choice after the 2023 season, and it continues to echo through Target Field. They let Sonny Gray, their All-Star starter, walk away in free agency. The move was tied to an ownership-driven payroll cut, but the fallout is undeniable. Two years later, as the team collapses for the second straight season, the absence of Gray feels like the start of a downward spiral.

Joe Ryan recently spoke of Gray’s impact in an interview with the Minnesota Star Tribune. “I wish Sonny [Gray] was still here,” Ryan said. “I feel like things would be different if he was.”

Gray’s Role in the 2023 Breakthrough
The 2023 season was magical for the Twins. With Gray at the front of the rotation, the team captured its first playoff series victory in more than two decades, ending the infamous 18-game postseason losing streak. Gray gave Minnesota not just innings but credibility. His presence at the top of the staff allowed the rest of the rotation to settle into roles where they could succeed.

More than numbers, though, he provided a sense of calm. Young arms like Ryan and Bailey Ober leaned on him for guidance. When Pablo López needed a co-anchor, Gray was there. For a franchise desperate for October relevance, Gray was the one who steadied the ship.

A Payroll-Driven Exit
But after that season, the story changed. The front office, working under strict payroll directives from ownership, chose not to match the market rate for Gray. Few expected the Twins to be in the conversation for Gray, but that’s where the Twins had the opportunity to change the narrative.  He signed a three-year contract that guarantees him $75 million with the St. Louis Cardinals, leaving the Twins to patch together a rotation without their proven leader.

The decision seemed shortsighted at the time, but hindsight has made it glaringly apparent. The Twins went from a playoff-caliber rotation to a patchwork group that has dealt with injuries, inconsistency, and the absence of a true ace.

“In my opinion, that goes down as the biggest mistake we have made since I’ve been here,” said Ryan. “He wanted to come back. He loved it here.”

St. Louis Performance
Gray was never going to match his 2023 performance as he continued to age. In 2024, he posted a 107 ERA+, a 1.09 WHIP, and struck out over 200 batters for only the second time in his career. He anchored the Cardinals staff, leading them back into contention. Even as he moved into his mid-30s, he remained one of the most effective pitchers in the National League.

By 2025, Father Time has started to rear its ugly head. Gray has a sub-100 ERA+ for the first time since 2018 but continues to control the strike zone with a league-leading 1.8 BB/9. The Cardinals were hoping to be contenders during his tenure, but that has yet to materialize. Still, Gray was known for more than his in-field performance with the Twins. 

Leadership Lost
For Ryan, the loss of Gray goes beyond innings pitched. “There were a lot of avenues we could have gone down, but if we had re-signed Sonny, I can guarantee we would have been in the playoffs last year, and we’d probably be in a better spot this year,” Ryan said. “He was a top-notch guy, a great pitcher, incredible competitor, great guy in the clubhouse. I learned so much from him. We missed him last year.”

That leadership void has been glaring. Younger pitchers who once leaned on Gray have been asked to figure things out on their own. Without him, the rotation has lacked the veteran presence that can make all the difference in a long season.

What Could Have Been: A Different Offseason Path
Imagine a different scenario. The Twins bring Gray back after 2023, pairing him again with López at the top of the rotation. That duo provides a one-two punch that rivals almost any staff in the American League. Ryan slides comfortably into a mid-rotation role, while Ober and Chris Paddack round things out. Suddenly, Minnesota has depth, hierarchy, and stability.

There’s no way of knowing how Gray would have performed had he returned to Minnesota. However, the message from ownership to the team could have been “we believe in this roster and want to win.” The Twins could have entered both 2024 and 2025 with one of the most stable staffs in baseball. The offense wouldn’t have felt as much pressure to carry the load, and the team’s playoff window could have stayed wide open.

Instead, the decision to cut payroll closed that window. The ripple effects are still being felt today, and the franchise continues to wrestle with the fallout of a move that looks worse with each passing season.

The Big Picture: Then vs. Now
At the time, some fans understood the decision. Gray was entering his mid-30s, and his free-agent price tag carried risk. The Twins had López signed long-term, and the belief was that Ryan and Ober were ready to take another step forward. Cutting payroll was frustrating, but the front office framed it as a chance to stay flexible and avoid long-term mistakes.

Now, with two seasons of evidence, the perception has changed. The “risk” that came with Gray has been outweighed by what he could have meant to the Twins, especially from a leadership perspective. Meanwhile, the Twins starters have failed to live up to expectations, watching their rotation depth erode and their playoff hopes dim.

What once looked like a reasonable gamble has transformed into the defining mistake of this era. This choice undermined the team’s hard-earned progress and put the franchise on a significantly different trajectory.

Should the Twins have signed Gray to an extension? Was it the team’s biggest mistake in recent years? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[bunsen82]

I have to laugh.  Another article about the payroll woes of the Twins.  I agree I would have loved to see Sonny Gray resigned.  I still think value wise it was smarter to let him go.  That was a career year and you got a draft pick back.  As a transaction you traded Petty for 2 years of Sonny Gray (2.4 and 5.6 WAR respectively) and a draft pick - Debarge (#12 prospect in Twins loaded system).   Gray has a 4.45 ERA and a 1 WAR this year.  I would argue the Twins made a good decision to not resign him.  But thats me.  

[Patzky]

The leadership lost is a real thing but to keep harping on it is really a disservice to Pablo Lopez. He's one of the most observant guys in the game and it's a real shame if there is some disconnect among the staff.  Bailey has learned how to struggle without his best stuff. Joe is still trying to control his emotions when the unexpected happens (I recall a similar Sonny) and SWR works within what he has. 

Game one in a playoff series though.. gimme Pablo. 

[old nurse]

The Twins gave him a qualifying offer. If Gray wanted to be here, he would have been. 

[GNess]

You get what you pay for and you don't get what you don't pay for. The Twins seem to emphasize the latter. 

[Schmoeman5]

32 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I have to laugh.  Another article about the payroll woes of the Twins.  I agree I would have loved to see Sonny Gray resigned.  I still think value wise it was smarter to let him go.  That was a career year and you got a draft pick back.  As a transaction you traded Petty for 2 years of Sonny Gray (2.4 and 5.6 WAR respectively) and a draft pick - Debarge (#12 prospect in Twins loaded system).   Gray has a 4.45 ERA and a 1 WAR this year.  I would argue the Twins made a good decision to not resign him.  But thats me.  

"Twins loaded system"

[Cory Engelhardt]

All of 2023 it was pretty well known that Sonny was going to move on, and it almost didn't matter the salary offer that could have come that would have kept him there. I wasn't angry at the time so much at Sonny specifically leaving (players can choose where they want to play come free agency) but to drop the payroll THAT much (in the range of what Gray could have earned in 2024) was what was awful at the time. If it had been reinvested in any meaningful way at that time, I still think 2024 and into 2025 would have had better results. Ugh

[NYCTK]

It wasn't necessarily the worst idea to let Gray walk, but the Twins also lost a lot of innings in Maeda and Pagan, and even Keuchel to some degree, that weren't properly replaced.

That's 400 quality innings that just disappeared with no plan to replicate, outside of more innings to Simeon Woods Richardson, which was never going to work out well. 

[Vanimal46]

I applaud Joe Ryan for the interview. It's rare to see a current player call out ownership and the front office during the season, and he's not wrong. Sonny Gray was the casualty of "right sizing" the payroll and we've been in free fall ever since. 

Lopez vaguely mentioned a culture issue, Lewis has been dancing around culture issues in the organization. Joe Ryan went full frontal on the issue. 

[jmlease1]

A silly story. Losing Gray wasn't the reason the Twins collapsed: losing Gray and not using the money saved by not re-signing Gray to shore up the squad is why the Twins have collapsed.

Remember, Gray left and the Twins cut payroll. If they had brought Gray back they would have had to dump money somewhere else, because ownership mandated a payroll reduction.

Now, the Twins were never going to offer a contract like St. Louis did, and they were almost certainly right not to. Gray was fine last season (not great, but a decent starter) and this season he's been more like SWR than a leader of a rotation. I guarantee people around here would be losing their minds at him getting paid $25M for what he's producing. Gray has been healthy, but he hasn't been great. I certainly wouldn't feel very good about being on the hook for $25M for Sonny Gray for 2026!

It's all about "right-sizing" the payroll and pulling the rug out from under everyone by ownership. Not losing Sonny Gray's so-called "leadership".

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The Twins gave him a qualifying offer. If Gray wanted to be here, he would have been. 

He didn't want to be TC otherwise he would be TC.  Probably 90% STL money 10% Rocco.

[Eris]

While I would have love to see the Twins resign Sonny Gray and get his current level of production. The Twins main problem is they can’t hit, they can’t play defense and many players lack base running skills. I doubt that Sonny Gray would have solved those issues. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Sonny never wanted to stay here.  He couldn’t wait to get out of Dodge. He wasn’t overly fond of Rocco.  Couldn’t see a future for him personally (i.e. professionally and/or financially) or team wise by staying.  Smart guy to get out while the getting was good.

Sadly, Ryan is in the same mindset now as well: the team’s outlook is poor, the money and his individual success will be better elsewhere, and Rocco isn’t floating his boat.

 

[Schmoeman5]

48 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I applaud Joe Ryan for the interview. It's rare to see a current player call out ownership and the front office during the season, and he's not wrong. Sonny Gray was the casualty of "right sizing" the payroll and we've been in free fall ever since. 

Lopez vaguely mentioned a culture issue, Lewis has been dancing around culture issues in the organization. Joe Ryan went full frontal on the issue. 

I mentioned it last year and got told I was wrong. 😄 In fact I also pointed it out after the Correa trade. And was told, wrong again. 😂 

[jmlease1]

33 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

He didn't want to be TC otherwise he would be TC.  Probably 90% STL money 10% Rocco.

More like 98% money, 2% closer to home, 0% anything to actually do with anyone at the Twins.

He hasn't been used any differently with St. L than he was with the Twins when healthy

• 2023 - 5.75 innings/start
• 2024 - 5.93 innings/start
• 2025 - 5.64 innings/start

So if he really has a beef with Rocco, he's having the same fight with Marmol. (more likely? Sonny Gray has never wanted to come out of any game he's started in his pro career whether he's getting shelled or not)

[Vanimal46]

30 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sonny never wanted to stay here.  He couldn’t wait to get out of Dodge

I’m conflicted who to believe. One of his teammates for 2 years that said Sonny loved it here and wanted to stay. Or Twins fans on a message board. Hmm…

[old nurse]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m conflicted who to believe. One of his teammates for 2 years that said Sonny loved it here and wanted to stay. Or Twins fans on a message board. Hmm…

Aren’t you someone on a message board. Why should anyone then believe your statement?

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

Aren’t you someone on a message board. Why should anyone then believe your statement?

You don’t have to. Joe Ryan was quoted saying exactly that. 

[Doctor Gast]

If the Twins signed Gray, would that help us go to the postseason in '24 & '25? No doubt. If we had just a veteran inning-eater SP, IMO, we could have as well. We had Gray in '22, yet didn't reach the postseason. The big difference was Lopez in '23. Gray would have been nice, but not necessary.

IMO, Ryan's statement was more motivated by the whole team's frustration with the lack of effort by the FO to build off the great '23 core. Even with a limited salary & a handle on what needed to be done,; they could have traded to fill the fragile areas. But they made the team weaker by their transactions, even before the sell-off.

I wouldn't doubt it if Ryan wants to be traded this offseason.

[ashbury]

Does Joe Ryan wish that Nelson Cruz was still with the Twins?  😀

[Schmoeman5]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m conflicted who to believe. One of his teammates for 2 years that said Sonny loved it here and wanted to stay. Or Twins fans on a message board. Hmm…

I don't know everything that goes on behind the scenes. But I do get tidbits. And share as much as possible. Its sort of like the comments about guys mailing it in or not trying. If a player no longer cares or doesn't show effort, they wont be around long.. Jax outburst before the deadline is a good example. After a few decisions, whether right or wrong.  A person can and will say things they regret later on. Joe Ryan saw what happened to guys he had relations with dealt away. He wants to battle and win every time out. When a player sees and knows it's all about the Benjamins one can easily get jaded. Trevor is another example. I see posts all the time about him. How he's coming on because he needs to just to be considered in regards to his future. That is the most ridiculous thing of all. A player who signs for big money has that luxury. Most players fight 100% EVERY DAY just to stay a part of MLB. 

[Linus]

I don’t like our FO and I will say they handled that situation perfectly. Let him walk and get the comp pick. What’s really clear is that Joe Ryan has no future in a front office 

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

The Twins gave him a qualifying offer. If Gray wanted to be here, he would have been. 

"Wanted" is one of those fuzzy terms that lead to disagreements without anyone necessarily noticing. 

A player can "want" more than one thing at a time.  He could want to remain with the Twins.  He could want to not leave money on the table.

The Cardinals offered him $75M in guaranteed money.  We don't know what, if any, extension the Twins offered, but the QO represented a small fraction of that guarantee.

We do know that Gray was quoted as saying that, even after the Twins explained to him that they didn't have the "resources" to make him a competitive offer, he had his agent give it one or two tries anyway.  I don't read anything in the MLBTR item the next season suggesting Gray didn't want to be here.

Gray didn't want to play for Twins money.  AKA right-sizing.

[SF Twins Fan]

Signing Sonny Gray to a long-term contract wouldn't have helped the Twins last year or this year.  Their main issue is not being able to hit the ball consistently and just taking poor at bats to begin with.

As stated above, not signing Gray wasn't the issue.  It was not signing him and then not using the freed-up money to spend elsewhere on the team.  Before the trade deadline, this team desperately needed it's lineup overhauled.  

[Patzky]

47 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m conflicted who to believe. One of his teammates for 2 years that said Sonny loved it here and wanted to stay. Or Twins fans on a message board. Hmm…

Sonny will never see your post, hmm 🤗 

I feel you're onto something.

[IndianaTwin]

54 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m conflicted who to believe. One of his teammates for 2 years that said Sonny loved it here and wanted to stay. Or Twins fans on a message board. Hmm…

Yes, the Star Tribune article is behind payroll, but it seems that if there's anything particular helpful here, it's Ryan refuting the notion that Gray didn't want to be here.

The perceptions of Gray not wanting to be here seem to primarily be based on a quote or two from a highly competitive athlete, in the immediate aftermath of a highly competitive game, when he said he wanted to compete more. Frustration that he expressed through his body language (and even through his words) was likely addressed primarily at himself. After all, when have we ever heard such an athlete say, "Yeah, I sure am glad that the manager took me out, because I don't think I could have gotten the next batter"?  I want athletes to have the desire to compete and feel confidence in their ability to do the job.

Can we please bury this perception about Gray not wanting to be here alongside the perception that Rocco takes his starters out quicker than other teams?

[bunsen82]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

"Twins loaded system"

Last I checked we have the #2 farm system.  But think what you want.  Everything is a negative in some peoples eyes.  We will see soon if these kids can handle the bright lights or not.  

[Jacksson]

Gray was never going to sign with the Twins.  He wanted to play close to where he and his family lived.  That's the reason HE PICKED St Louis.  That is why he has chosen to remain there and has rebuffed any talk of being traded by them.  It is not about: the team's potential, his teammates, the front office, the league, the division, the manager, the coaches; it's LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION !!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

30 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Can we please bury this perception about Gray not wanting to be here alongside the perception that Rocco takes his starters out quicker than other teams?

I think Rocco has no feel for when to leave a pitcher in or take a pitcher out.

edited

Edited September 8, 2025 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Schmoeman5]

9 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Last I checked we have the #2 farm system.  But think what you want.  Everything is a negative in some peoples eyes.  We will see soon if these kids can handle the bright lights or not.  

So where is the next 1b 2b 3b SS C in this system thats so strong. I'll give you the OF .may be covered. Maybe. No matter how highly ranked. That is all just speculation and hope. Until proven otherwise