BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[Patzky]

5 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Well, it was nice to dream about Painter....I am sure they tried.....sigh....but the take sounds pretty good.  

I was really hoping for a trade with LAD to snag Dalton Rushing....more dreaming??  LOL

They were not giving up Painter.. Ryan might have changed their minds.

Selling was going to be painful and it will be again tomorrow. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, LastOnePicked said:

Something tells me Falvey will wind up in the Phillies front office soon.

If they're lucky!  /s

(Edited to make sure no one read that seriously!)

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Patzky said:

They were not giving up Painter.. Ryan might have changed their minds.

Selling was going to be painful and it will be again tomorrow. 

I agree they weren't getting Painter.....

[Rigby]

14 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Wow lots of hate for a very good trade. This was the exact haul discussed many times.  I would even say an overpay. Abel is a much better pitcher than SWR. 

Was it the 6.46.ERA in AAA last year that convinced you or the lifetime MILB BB rate of 5+/9 innings?

[laloesch]

Another piece of news.  Apparently the Astros have approached the Twins about reacquiring Correa, and that Correa is open to waiving his no trade clause.  DO IT!  Get rid of his contract while you still can!

[JADBP]

The asking price for Duran was TWO TOP-100 PROSPECTS.  They got one (Abel is ranked 49) and one lottery ticket.  Nice.  I have to hand it to Falvey, he's doing a mighty fine job (cough, choke!).  I am sure there are 3-4 other teams out there that are saying to themselves "What the H?  We could have bettered that deal!"  Yeah, kinda underwhelming.  

[shimrod]

Yes, Johan is controllable, but at an escalating price. The salary dump continues. 

Any Twin making more than the minimum needs to be packing.

We'll see to what lengths the FO will go to move Correa.

[Hrbowski]

More support for my theory this FO is horseshit

[Vanimal46]

Tait sounds like the same type of player Falvey continues to target over and over again. Bad defensively, slow speed, supposedly great bat for low A ball. 

[weitz41]

A bit light IMO...A likely starter and may free the FO up to move Ryan. I like the catcher and think Adel will be a solid starter, Just not the excitement of Duran coming out the the BP..

[SwainZag]

1 minute ago, Rigby said:

Was it the 6.46.ERA in AAA last year that convinced you or the lifetime MILB BB rate of 5+/9 innings?

I'm not a fan of this trade, but his 2.31 ERA in 13 AAA starts this year should be a little more meaningful than his 2024 numbers. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Disappointing, there is no Painter coming to cover up this mess.

[AceWrigley]

Tait is a really good prospect, above 100 RC+ as an 18 year old at high A ball. Excellent exit velocity.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, JADBP said:

The asking price for Duran was TWO TOP-100 PROSPECTS.  They got one (Abel is ranked 49) and one lottery ticket.  Nice.  I have to hand it to Falvey, he's doing a mighty fine job (cough, choke!).  I am sure there are 3-4 other teams out there that are saying to themselves "What the H?  We could have bettered that deal!"  Yeah, kinda underwhelming.  

Ummmm. It's literally the opposite. Tait is much higher ranked. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Tait sounds like the same type of player Falvey continues to target over and over again. Bad defensively, slow speed, supposedly great bat for allow A ball. 

They could have just drafted Teel, who is already in the majors....

[PseudoSABR]

3 minutes ago, JADBP said:

The asking price for Duran was TWO TOP-100 PROSPECTS.  They got one (Abel is ranked 49) and one lottery ticket.  Nice.  I have to hand it to Falvey, he's doing a mighty fine job (cough, choke!).  I am sure there are 3-4 other teams out there that are saying to themselves "What the H?  We could have bettered that deal!"  Yeah, kinda underwhelming.  

BA has Tait at #50.  He's the prize of the deal.  

[laloesch]

3 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I'm not a fan of this trade, but his 2.31 ERA in 13 AAA starts this year should be a little more meaningful than his 2024 numbers. 

Not an exceptionally large sample size though.  it’s barely more than a scratch Lotto ticket at this point. 

[LastOnePicked]

5 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Apparently the Astros have approached the Twins about reacquiring Correa, and that Correa is open to waiving his no trade clause.  DO IT!  Get rid of his contract while you still can!

Agreed. Eat $30M of the contract and ask Houston for a scratch-off lottery ticket in A ball. Correa is cooked here. It's time for this organization to develop their own top talent.

[AceWrigley]

Mets just aquired Helsley from the Cards for Jesus Baez and 2 other minor leaguers.

[tony&rodney]

This is really depressing at the moment. The trading deadline is tomorrow at 5pm. Why did the Twins need to collapse today?

I was trying to be positive when Paddack was dealt for nothing because it seemed from reports that there was zero interest in Paddack. Then we see that 2 months of a middle relief pitcher brings between SF and NYM. 

The worst (very arguable) game in Twins history infected the front office as well. Oh my.

What could possibly be next? Will we hear that no teams were really interested in Castro or Bader? More?

[KirbyDome89]

So much for the narrative that Falvey grinds other GMs down by asking for the moon and attempting to squeeze every last bit of value out of deals, particularly when selling. 

I'm nowhere near the prospect hound that others on this site are, but the general consensus seems to be this return is underwhelming, and it's not like Duran was an expiring...

I'd love to hear an actual journalist ask him what the thought process here is, because he must really love this C prospect. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Fangraphs on Abel:
"Abel hasn’t developed as I hoped he would... He’s posted double-digit walk rates at each minor league stop and regressed on that score in 2024, when he labored through a 15% mark at Triple-A. There are still starter components here. The arm-side action of Abel’s curveball gives it utility against lefties, and his best sliders are 87-90 mph darts. Abel’s fastball velocity still peaks in the upper-90s, but it doesn’t sustain there, and his command and lack of explosive movement cause it to play down. He also has very little feel for locating his changeup, or really any of his offerings with any consistency. These have been Abel’s issues for several years now.

"Now Abel’s option clock has started and he only has so much time to polish his strike-throwing before the Phillies will be forced to put him in the bullpen, or do something else, like trade him to a franchise that has the time and opportunity to keep developing him as a starter; the 'win now' Phils are less likely to have that luxury. If we can reasonably project Abel to have a velo spike with a shift to relief, then he should have the stuff to pitch toward the back of a bullpen even if he’s never able to start. That said, he probably still needs to develop another grade of command in order to be trusted in such a role."

As always, I know nothing more about these minor leaguers than what I glean from the pros who write about them, but Abel is a name I'd heard of. It unfortunately gives a whiff of the Berríos-SWR-Martin deal, in that Martin had quite a bit of prospect name recognition, but from people who knew the Jays his stock was already down.

Not that I think even the now-maligned Twins FO would trust reputation over current results—but is there a risk of trusting "pedigree" too much here?

[Mike Sixel]

This trade signals full on rebuild. Unless somehow Abel is good now...... They didn't get a guy that is likely to help for two or three years. 

[laloesch]

Just now, LastOnePicked said:

Agreed. Eat $30M of the contract and ask Houston for a scratch-off lottery ticket in A ball. Correa is cooked here. It's time for this organization to develop their own top talent.

Yep. I had high hopes for him when he first signed but he’s so atrociously streaky offensively he’s not even close to worth that contract.  I agree, send money the Astro’s way, to get rid of him and bring back a lotto ticket prospect. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

18 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

Abel 5.04 era this yr in 25 innings.  So that projects to about a 5.50 era and 7-8 man in the rotation. Catcher doesn't excite me at all, unless he's going to be a Realmuto type.

That's a little misleading. Abel is 7-2 with a 2.31 ERA in AAA this year with 81 SOs in 74 innings and a 1.16 Whip. He's had his first 25 big league innings this year where he's 2-2. 5.04 ERA, 21 SOs and a 1.36 Whip. In other words, dominant in AAA this year and not a bad start for his first shot in the Bigs. Oh, by the way, he's all of 23 years old and was the 15th pick in the 202 draft. And he's the #2 guy we got. Tait is the headliner and he has a 55 FV, same as Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and Kaelen Culpepper. These two guys are the number 4 and 6 prospects on the Phillies top 20 and both were in the MLB top 100 before the draft -  Tait at 56, Abel at 92. For reference, Walter Jenkins was 15, Emma 40, Keaschall 42, and Culpepper 82.  They wanted 2 top 100 guys and got them. This return is essentially Keaschall and Culpepper. 

Look, I would not have traded Duran for reasons I've stated in other threads. If you do though, the idea that this is a paltry return or that Falvey got fleeced is a little over the top. You can argue about the wisdom of trading Duran for two prospects but if you do a mid-season trade that's what you get; prospects. I just wonder who is going to close for the rest of 2025 because let's face it, Jax sucks at closing.  Actually wouldn't surprise me if Jax goes too before the deadline.   

[Mike Sixel]

They did not need to trade him now! More bidders in the off season! I guess I should stop....

[madtowntwin]

19 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

When the headliner for your star closer is an A ball C that signals to me that this team has no intent of competing for the next 3 seasons.

He's only 18 years old and the Phillies #4 prospect at the coveted catching position. Were you expecting a Duran for Misiorowski swap with the Brewers straight up?? 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, LA VIkes Fan said:

That's a little misleading. Abel is 7-2 with a 2.31 ERA in AAA this year with 81 SOs in 74 innings and a 1.16 Whip. He's had his first 25 big league innings this year where he's 2-2. 5.04 ERA, 21 SOs and a 1.36 Whip. In other words, dominant in AAA this year and not a bad start for his first shot in the Bigs. Oh, by the way, he's all of 23 years old and was the 15th pick in the 202 draft. And he's the #2 guy we got. Tait is the headliner and he has a 55 FV, same as Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and Kaelen Culpepper. These two guys are the number 4 and 6 prospects on the Phillies top 20 and both were in the MLB top 100 before the draft -  Tait at 56, Abel at 92. For reference, Walter Jenkins was 15, Emma 40, Keaschall 42, and Culpepper 82.  They wanted 2 top 100 guys and got them. This return is essentially Keaschall and Culpepper. 

Look, I would not have traded Duran for reasons I've stated in other threads. If you do though, the idea that this is a paltry return or that Falvey got fleeced is a little over the top. You can argue about the wisdom of trading Duran for two prospects but if you do a mid-season trade that's what you get; prospects. I just wonder who is going to close for the rest of 2025 because let's face it, Jax sucks at closing.  Actually wouldn't surprise me if Jax goes too before the deadline.   

Keaschell and Culpeper are college guys who will be here this year and next, while they have Lopez and Ryan.... Tait will not. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is really depressing at the moment. The trading deadline is tomorrow at 5pm. Why did the Twins need to collapse today?

I was trying to be positive when Paddack was dealt for nothing because it seemed from reports that there was zero interest in Paddack. Then we see that 2 months of a middle relief pitcher brings between SF and NYM. 

The worst (very arguable) game in Twins history infected the front office as well. Oh my.

What could possibly be next? Will we hear that no teams were really interested in Castro or Bader? More?

There will be more deals. I would be very surprised actually if Jax is still a Twin in 23 hours. Bader, Castro and Columbe will all be gone. Stewart as well. I do expect Correa and Ryan to stay at this point.

[jorgenswest]

They caved. There was a report that the Phillies were out because the Twins insisted on Painter. The Twins had the leverage. They did not need to trade Duran unless they were blown away.

They didn’t get the catcher they need for 27. They didn’t get a starter that projects to be playoff level in 26 or 27.

If you deal Duran for this much control the grade should be an A. If it is not an A grade it is an F. Absolute failure.

The only way this is a good deal is when Abel is above league average and playoff quality starter next year and Tait is ready to replace Jeffers when he hits free agency in 27. When that happens I will be back to eat crow. Until then it is a failure.