If He's Fired, Rocco Baldelli Will Only Be Minnesota Twins' “Fall Guy”

[Matthew Lenz]

The seventh-year manager is assuredly on the hot seat amid a 7-15 start to the season. A loud sector of the fan base has wanted him gone for much of his tenure. While it seems more likely than not at this point, the skipper would only be the fall guy for a total system failure.

Image courtesy of © William Purnell-Imagn Images

Before we begin Rocco Baldelli’s defense portion of this trial, let's play the side of the prosecution. Like all managers—nay, people—Baldelli is not perfect. Does he lean too much into matchups at times, in lieu of letting his best batters hit? Yep. Is he guilty of not giving his starting pitchers a longer leash? Sometimes. Has he been a player’s manager, almost to a fault? Has his message fallen on deaf ears within the clubhouse? You could make those arguments.

A friend of mine said this a few years back, and I think it rings true, to a certain extent: Baldelli doesn't seem overly compelled to win any single game; he's always managing with the bigger picture in mind. Is that a problem? Not glaringly so, but maybe a little bit. However, will any of this change if he's relieved of his duties and someone else (whether it be internally or externally) takes over? I don't think so. The Twins' skipper (and the front office, to an extent) has been the victim of cheap ownership and a fan base that has misguided much of their anger in his direction.

Baldelli took over as manager for an organization that had played in just one postseason game in eight seasons. You won't hear the people who want him fired give him credit for leading a record-breaking “Bomba Squad” or winning over 100 games in his first season. You won't hear those same people give him credit for managing through a COVID-shortened season that saw the Twins win their second consecutive American League Central title. After all, it's the players who make the plays and win the games, right?

Why, then, are they so quick to point the finger toward the dugout when the players are the ones underachieving? In addition to being strapped for cash, Baldelli has had to manage through continuous injuries and underperformance from the highest-paid players on the team. Byron Buxton’s and Carlos Correa’s injuries and performance have been a hot topic each year. This year, the two have combined for a .639 OPS, with four home runs and a 36:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 152 plate appearances. While both players have experienced success under Baldelli, it only comes in spurts and has been overshadowed by injuries. Is that his fault? Even their highest-paid pitcher, Pablo López, left the team wanting more in an up-and-down 2024 season. Down his best players (or getting underwhelming production from them), Baldelli has often been forced to rely on unproven talent or veterans looking for another chance.

Offensively, I've sorted a list of all players who have gotten more than 150 plate appearances in a season ascending by fWAR. The list includes guys like Jose Miranda (-0.7 fWAR in 2023), Jake Cave (-0.6 in 2021), Willians Astudillo (-0.5 in 2021), and seven others who played often, despite being worse than replacement-level. In many of those cases, Baldelli didn't have a choice but to rely on guys who weren't producing. Instead of prioritizing depth behind their oft-injured stars, the Twins have given Baldelli the likes of Gilberto Celestino (0.4 in 2022) and Austin Martin (-0.2 in 2024) to cover for Buxton, and a bevy of players who don't call shortstop home to cover for Correa.

Celestino has not received a major-league at-bat since he left the Twins organization. That doesn't even cover failed signings like Andrelton Simmons (somehow accrued 0.9 fWAR in 2021) and Joey Gallo (again, somehow 0.8 fWAR in 2023), who both got limited opportunities following their departures and found themselves out of baseball just a season after getting significant playing time with the Twins. While the front office can point their fingers at the Pohlads, they haven't maximized their return on the limited funds they've been allotted. This is especially true when we shift to pitchers.

Through Baldelli’s fourth season (2022), he was forced to start the group above 245 times (38% of games). Moreover, there are plenty of names who received multiple starts that would make for good answers on an Immaculate Grid board. While the idea that he never lets his starters go is somewhat specious (12th in SP innings since 2019), would you want to push those guys to give you more innings than they were already asked to? Fortunately for Baldelli, he's been the beneficiary of the Twins' phenomenal pitching development recently, which wasn't as highly thought of in the first half of his tenure with the team. Then we shift to the bullpen, and the many failed signings and trades throughout the Baldelli era. The worst names on that list include Sam Dyson, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, Joe Smith, Michael Fulmer, and Jorge López. Not a single one of those players have been consistently productive since joining other organizations, and more than one of them threw their last professional pitch with the Twins. We're going to blame Baldelli for that? Or more recently, is it on Baldelli that Griffin Jax has an 11.25 ERA right now?

To be fair to the front office, they have hit on some moves, as well. Acquiring Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and López for the top of the rotation have been wins. Nelson Cruz, Gio Urshela, Carlos Correa, Michael A. Taylor and Carlos Santana (maybe a couple others) have yielded positive returns. That said, they've had far more whiffs and foul tips than hits while Baldelli has been at the helm. Generally speaking, I don't think a manager has a determinative impact on player performance, one way or another. I didn't give Baldelli credit for 2019, and I'm not going to blame him for the Twins' last 60 games.

Don't get me wrong, Baldelli has his warts, and, as they say, “you can't fire the players”. However, if (seems more like "when") he gets fired, he’ll just be the “fall guy”. Until the Twins get new ownership, front office personnel will continue to be hamstrung—and the manager, whether it be Baldelli or someone else, will continue to be left with mediocre or worse teams. Simply put, Rocco Baldelli is not the reason for the Twins' total system failure. He's never been the total system.

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[Mike Sixel]

1.5 billion thumbs up.

[big dog]

For years I've looked forward to when I could retire,  with a big plan being spend some time in Fort Myers at spring training. I retire this summer. At this point if I go to Fort Myers it will be for the fishing. This article really drives home the point of how ridiculous this has been. If they don't care, why should I?

[bean5302]

Well, we have multiple problems so there's no point fixing any of them because fixing just one item probably might not maybe solve all our issues. Everything is fine.

[The Great Hambino]

It seems like most, if not all, defenses of Baldelli run along the lines of "it's not his fault" or "he's not the problem."

If that's your position ( and there's certainly at least some truth to it), then ask yourself this:

Is Baldelli the solution to any of the team's issues?

I have a hard time coming up with a way in which he is.  So even if he'll get replaced by Tingler or someone else that will be a clone or continue following Falvey's marching orders or whatever, it's worth trying to see if someone else can be the solution, or part of the solution.  The status quo is not worth maintaining with the continuity Baldelli provides, so there isn't much risk in his replacement being worse.  The upside of his replacement being a solution is worth that risk.

[nicksaviking]

"Why, then, are they so quick to point the finger toward the dugout when the players are the ones underachieving?"

Because replacing one manager is easier than replacing 26 players?

There shouldn't be a requirement to weigh the manager's good deeds vs bad. When the team has hit rock bottom and has lost all momentum, this is just what you do.

The criticisms of Gardenhire and Molitor were fairly pedestrian, but the product on the field was extremely stale at the end of their runs; it was time to move on from them even if they were faultless. Same is true now. One of the best ways to spark a team is to fire the manager. Every sport, every league, every era. Doesn't always work, but that hardly matters when it's not working now.

[4twinsJA]

I agree all the issues are not Rocco's fault. But, sometimes a team needs a new voice. I have been critical of Rocco's lack of urgency. He was a great choice when hired, now time for someone new.

[Craig Arko]

I think a change will happen, and I also think it won’t make much difference. 

[Western SD Fan]

20 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

It seems like most, if not all, defenses of Baldelli run along the lines of "it's not his fault" or "he's not the problem."

If that's your position ( and there's certainly at least some truth to it), then ask yourself this:

Is Baldelli the solution to any of the team's issues?

I have a hard time coming up with a way in which he is.  So even if he'll get replaced by Tingler or someone else that will be a clone or continue following Falvey's marching orders or whatever, it's worth trying to see if someone else can be the solution, or part of the solution.  The status quo is not worth maintaining with the continuity Baldelli provides, so there isn't much risk in his replacement being worse.  The upside of his replacement being a solution is worth that risk.

This. Idk if it will make a difference at all, but when the Mariners fired Scott Servais the team went 21 -13 the rest of the way and although they still missed out on a playoff spot. They played competitive baseball for the rest of the year. Something more than the Twins have seen in 3 of the last 4 years.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Craig Arko said:

I think a change will happen, and I also think it won’t make much difference. 

This. They've fielded a LOT of bad players (esp. pitchers while they waited for their plan to work). But, it's the total lack of developing above average every day players that is killing them right now (and Jax utterly blowing three games somehow). 

Plus, it seems clear SWR is a RP at this point, and they should call up Zebby. They can always send SWT to STP to get back up to innings if needed....

[Danchat]

While I agree with the article's main points about the organization itself being the root of the failure and not the manager, we could learn a lot after Rocco gets canned. Does his replacement A) provide no improvement whatsoever, B) improves but plays at a .500 level which doesn't get us anywhere, or C) massively increase and put this team back in contention. I think C is incredibly unlikely given the talent of this roster and B would be the worst outcome because it would allow the front office to continue treading water. A is more of what I'd expect as the new manager would likely continue to do a lot of the things that people hate about Rocco's management like with starters leaving early / bullpen management / lineups being different.

And I agree with the "he's responsible for when they are underachieving but gets zero credit for when they overachieve" point, however, we're on track for 4 of the previous 5 seasons being incredibly disappointing as 2019-20 begin to disappear behind the horizon. It's a "what have you done for me lately" league and right now 2023 looks like the outlier.

I do wonder how responsible Levine was for some of the FA and trade errors made in recent years and that's why he's gone. I appreciate the analysis, though I'd like to see more of a deeper dig into the farm system's issue with developing hitters / fielders and also having zero international successes in a long span of time.

[Linus]

For me it has to be a package deal - one goes they all go. 

[luckylager]

I like Rocco, he seems to be a really good guy. Unfortunately, under his management, this team is just not putting things together and haven't been able to since mid-season last year. A fire needs to be lit, or this season will be over before May (it might already be toast).  The Pohlads finding a buyer with a win-now mentality might do the trick, but that doesn't seem to be on the horizon.  Rocco, may have to be the sacrificial lamb. Desperate times call for drastic measure.  We are obviously in desperate times.

[mikelink45]

Sometimes a new voice leads to systematic change and if the players believe in it the results can really be good.  But if it is just an internal option I don't expect much to improve.  I don't like Rocco getting in a rut like the Margot pinch hitting or the short leash on SP, but I am not looking at him as a villain. 

Bleacher reports has this interesting insight - "Since 1987, there have been 81 midseason managerial changes, one of which was in 1996 when Tommy Lasorda retired as Dodger manager after suffering a heart attack. Of those 80 changes due to firings, only 19 teams played better than . 500 baseball after the change was made, some just barely." 

Of course it is usually a bad team that changes managers so it is a really hard measurement.  

"Prior to 1987, there were 183 midseason changes (those not including the first or last 20 games of a season), with about 24 percent improving to a plus .500 team after the change."

In a research paper by Beth Talentowski, '10 Illinois Wesleyan University the conclusions include this statement - "It would also be beneficial to look at other factors that influence team performance. Initially a third model was under consideration to assess which variable has the greatest impact on winning percentage. The additional variables under consideration are variables that are out of the manager‘s control yet are vital aspects of a sporting organization, such as salary cap, draft picks, slugging percentage, etc. The human capital theory suggests that proper use of inputs is enough for success, but what if the inputs are sub par?"

Sometimes there are other factors that must be included like the owner and the Front Office, but that is beyond this essays parameters.  However, the message to the players and the fans is that the team is at least looking for a change. And MLB is not the only place this solution is tried - look at this years NBA, the NFL, and even college sports.  But the trouble is that we can analyze bat speed, ball spin and lots of other minutia, but we cannot measure leadership.  Casey Stengel was a genius with the Yankees, not so much with the Mets.  

I look forward to another article where we analyze the entire system including those nameless analytic savants and that ever present Quality Control Coach. 

[Doctor Gast]

Firing Baldelli won't change anything if you keep Falvey in charge. I'd clean the whole slate except the pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

Firing Baldelli won't change anything if you keep Falvey in charge. I'd clean the whole slate except the pitching.

I'd deal whichever SP Baltimore will give the most back for, but yes.....

[Matthew Lenz]

59 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Well, we have multiple problems so there's no point fixing any of them because fixing just one item probably might not maybe solve all our issues. Everything is fine.

You missed the point...Baldelli isn't the problem.

[DJL44]

Did people reasonably expect that this team would have a .300 winning percentage in 2025? I didn't see many baseball pundits predicting fewer than 50 wins. That's how bad they've played since the collapse last season (6-16 plus 7-15 = 13-31). Rocco might not be the whole problem but he's part of the problem.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

48 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

I agree all the issues are not Rocco's fault. But, sometimes a team needs a new voice. I have been critical of Rocco's lack of urgency. He was a great choice when hired, now time for someone new.

I think this pretty much sums things up. It isn't a statement on whether Rocco is "good" or "bad", rather a statement on if he has the team. The downwards trend at the end of last year coupled with the slow start this year makes me question how much they are buying into what he is selling. Even the best managers/coaches need to move on from time to time.

A few pieces not being discussed much in this process:

1) I believe Rocco's contract expires at the end of this year. How much of the sale process is impacting a potential managerial change and the money that goes with it?

2) Will a strong veteran coach want to take this team knowing that new ownership is on the horizon and there may be huge fundamental changes coming?

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

You missed the point...Baldelli isn't the problem.

I didn't miss the point. I did my best to give your position even a shred of undeserved credibility. Rocco IS a big part of the problem.

[nicksaviking]

59 minutes ago, Linus said:

For me it has to be a package deal - one goes they all go. 

I'd do a complete overhaul as well, but I don't see more than the manager getting canned while ownership is in flux.

But firing the manager while the GM/POBO is still here could provide some insight. Specifically, it may provide details into where the breakdown in development is coming from. Currently, we all see it's broken, but no one can exactly put their finger on why or how or where or when. Just replacing the manager might give a better idea where fault lies. Then when the GM/POBO gets replaced later, you can more directly avoid the same dynamic or Venn diagram overlap that you had before.

[Doctor Gast]

Both CWS & CO had pretty good teams, but both crashed because they had bad management, starting with FO. CO is stuck on the bottom because of bad management. They won't change until management changes. Twins won't change until management changes. SF changed management the team changed with basically the same team even w/o Snell.

[USAFChief]

40 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

You missed the point...Baldelli isn't the problem.

Speaking of missing the point...

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Speaking of missing the point...

Baldelli is likely part of the problem, I agree. 

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd do a complete overhaul as well, but I don't see more than the manager getting canned while ownership is in flux.

But firing the manager while the GM/POBO is still here could provide some insight. Specifically, it may provide details into where the breakdown in development is coming from. Currently, we all see it's broken, but no one can exactly put their finger on why or how or where or when. Just replacing the manager might give a better idea where fault lies. Then when the GM/POBO gets replaced later, you can more directly avoid the same dynamic or Venn diagram overlap that you had before.

I think a new owner might fire Falvey just because he wouldn't fire Rocco.

[USAFChief]

Yet Another TD writer who can't or won't be objective when it comes to Rocco Baldelli.

The opposite of "analytically inclined. "

 

 

[Mahoning]

Joe Maddon is available. Then again, he had no success with the Angels because they had a bad team. This team has several good pitchers and some good defenders, but no consistently productive hitters. It's really hard to win without hitting stars. Imagine Cleveland without Jose Ramirez.

[LA Vikes Fan]

While I agree with the basic thesis of the article that this year's performance isn't necessarily Baldelli's "fault", I disagree that "fault" matters or drives the decision. If you're the field manager and the team is not successful, you lose your job. That's the deal you signed up for. Being a baseball manager or football coach, or any kind of coach in sports, is not a job when you get to keep it just because you're being competent or even above average. Many times, you can be doing everything "right" and you just aren't getting the production out of the players you have so the manager/coach/GM/assistant coach has to go. Really the only question here is has the talent played up to its potential? While we might disagree about the potential of this roster, I think we have to agree that the roster has a potential of winning more than 51/52 games this year. At their current .318 winning percentage, that's how many games they will win. To make matters even worse, we aren't really seeing signs that this is going to turn around regardless of what happens in the upcoming season with the only team worse in baseball; the Chicago White Sox.

I actually like Baldelli as a manager and think he is above average. Having said that, he has clearly lost the team or at least lost the ability to motivate their play. It's time for him to go. Not because he's a bad manager, not because it made a bunch of mistakes, not because this isn't been also on the Front Office, he goes because he's the manager responsible for on the field performance. That performance is dreadful and even worse for an entertainment product, boring. Firing Baldelli does not make him a "fall guy", it's the proper response to a field manager unable to motivate his team into achieving their potential. If people want to call him the fall guy, it doesn't really matter, getting fired if the team doesn't win is what he signed up for. There is nothing to see here.

[Brandon27]

If rocco is fired they pretty much need redo the whole coaching staff  bring in a coaching staff with playoff and world series experience 

[CRF]

Rocco may not be the whole problem, but he's a decent chunk of it. Firing the manager is the way it works...they get the ax first. Anyway, it's way past time for a new voice in the clubhouse, but moving Tingler, or one of the other coaches in there, or Toby G, probably won't light a fire in this bunch. Ownership on down IS the problem. It's a complete organizational failure. Nothing will change here, until a new ownership group comes in and cleans house. I know the argument is...maybe we get someone worse than the Pohlads...I'll take the chance.