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Matthew Lenz

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Everything posted by Matthew Lenz

  1. Walker Jenkins has done everything he possibly could for the St. Paul Saints. Yet, he's still there. What's it going to take to get him to the big leagues? View full video
  2. Walker Jenkins has done everything he possibly could for the St. Paul Saints. Yet, he's still there. What's it going to take to get him to the big leagues?
  3. It feels criminal at this point that Walker Jenkins is still in St. Paul!
  4. Kaelen Culpepper is nine games into his big league career, and the Minnesota Twins' rookie shortstop has already shown signs that he could be the guy moving forward. What do you think about his early returns? View full video
  5. Kaelen Culpepper is nine games into his big league career, and the Minnesota Twins' rookie shortstop has already shown signs that he could be the guy moving forward. What do you think about his early returns?
  6. Image courtesy of William Parameter From a pure production standpoint, Luis Fragoza isn't just having a good year for a 19-year-old. He's having one of the best seasons of any teenage prospect in all of baseball. Drop the age qualifier entirely, and he's still producing like a top 25 prospect at any level, in any organization. That's not hyperbole. Fragoza signed with the Minnesota Twins in 2024 as an international free agent out of Venezuela for just $77,500. He's a physical, strong right-handed hitter who has bounced around the diamond, playing everywhere except second base, catcher, and pitcher. In his three years in pro ball, he's already shown the kind of power that makes evaluators pay attention, even if most of them haven't started paying attention yet. His path so far has been a bit uneven, which is normal for a player this young. He debuted in the Dominican Summer League at 17 and posted a respectable .784 OPS. In 2025, he struggled to find consistency in his first stint in the Florida Complex League (FCL), finishing with a .646 OPS. This season, though? Different story After a return trip to the FCL, Fragoza quickly forced a promotion to full-season Single-A Fort Myers, where he turned into the most dangerous hitter on the Mighty Mussels roster. Right now, most public prospect rankings barely acknowledge him. FanGraphs mentioned him only as a footnote in their most recent team list. MLB Pipeline has him as the 27th-ranked prospect in a system, and he’s yet to get a vote amongst Twins Daily contributors. Given what he's done this season, that feels like it's about to change. The bat is Fragoza's carrying tool, and he's a power-over-hit type of hitter. That's both the exciting part and the cautionary part of his profile. He has a free-swinging approach that leads to plenty of strikeouts, and that approach is going to get tested as he climbs the ladder and starts seeing better pitching. His strikeout rate sits around 27 percent right now, which isn't ideal, though his walk rate of about 8 percent is respectable enough to suggest he's not completely undisciplined at the plate. What makes evaluators willing to live with the swing-and-miss is the raw power. Fragoza has shown a real ability to lift the ball, especially to his pull side, and the exit velocity numbers back it up. His max exit velocity this season sits at 110 mph, and he's in the 90th percentile leaguewide in that category. He's also an average runner who can steal a base when the opportunity is there, tallying 15 steals this year. Defensively, he's been all over the field, though MLB Pipeline projects him as an outfielder long-term. Now let's get to the fun part, because this season's production has genuinely been special. Among teenagers with at least 250 plate appearances across all of affiliated baseball, Fragoza has the third-highest wRC+ in the sport, sitting at 154. If you look at teenage qualified hitters (which he is not), he'd rank 10th overall. If you drop both qualifiers and look at production regardless, he'd be a top 25 hitter in all of affiliated baseball. For a guy two years younger than the average hitter at his level, that's about as impressive as it gets. With the Mussels, Fragoza hit .322/.398/.607 (1.005 OPS) with 14 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Performing this well while being this young is a real signal, even if the underlying strikeout numbers suggest there's swing and miss to clean up. Fragoza saved his best for right before his promotion, too. He was named Florida State League Player of the Week after posting a video game-like line that included three home runs, nine stolen bases, and seven total extra-base hits. Shortly after, the Twins promoted him to High-A Cedar Rapids, where he'll look to carry that momentum into a tougher level of competition. Finding a diamond in the rough is one of the more enjoyable parts of following a farm system, and Fragoza checks a lot of the boxes that make a prospect fun to track. However, there's no guarantee he turns into that guy. The free-swinging approach is a real swing limiter, and his defensive future still needs to sort itself out given how much he's bounced around the diamond. Still, a 19-year-old already performing at this level, already forcing multiple promotions, and already doing damage against older competition is exactly the kind of development you want to see from an unheralded prospect. Fragoza might not have much name recognition yet, but that's usually how these stories start. What do you think about Fragoza's breakout? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article
  7. From a pure production standpoint, Luis Fragoza isn't just having a good year for a 19-year-old. He's having one of the best seasons of any teenage prospect in all of baseball. Drop the age qualifier entirely, and he's still producing like a top 25 prospect at any level, in any organization. That's not hyperbole. Fragoza signed with the Minnesota Twins in 2024 as an international free agent out of Venezuela for just $77,500. He's a physical, strong right-handed hitter who has bounced around the diamond, playing everywhere except second base, catcher, and pitcher. In his three years in pro ball, he's already shown the kind of power that makes evaluators pay attention, even if most of them haven't started paying attention yet. His path so far has been a bit uneven, which is normal for a player this young. He debuted in the Dominican Summer League at 17 and posted a respectable .784 OPS. In 2025, he struggled to find consistency in his first stint in the Florida Complex League (FCL), finishing with a .646 OPS. This season, though? Different story After a return trip to the FCL, Fragoza quickly forced a promotion to full-season Single-A Fort Myers, where he turned into the most dangerous hitter on the Mighty Mussels roster. Right now, most public prospect rankings barely acknowledge him. FanGraphs mentioned him only as a footnote in their most recent team list. MLB Pipeline has him as the 27th-ranked prospect in a system, and he’s yet to get a vote amongst Twins Daily contributors. Given what he's done this season, that feels like it's about to change. The bat is Fragoza's carrying tool, and he's a power-over-hit type of hitter. That's both the exciting part and the cautionary part of his profile. He has a free-swinging approach that leads to plenty of strikeouts, and that approach is going to get tested as he climbs the ladder and starts seeing better pitching. His strikeout rate sits around 27 percent right now, which isn't ideal, though his walk rate of about 8 percent is respectable enough to suggest he's not completely undisciplined at the plate. What makes evaluators willing to live with the swing-and-miss is the raw power. Fragoza has shown a real ability to lift the ball, especially to his pull side, and the exit velocity numbers back it up. His max exit velocity this season sits at 110 mph, and he's in the 90th percentile leaguewide in that category. He's also an average runner who can steal a base when the opportunity is there, tallying 15 steals this year. Defensively, he's been all over the field, though MLB Pipeline projects him as an outfielder long-term. Now let's get to the fun part, because this season's production has genuinely been special. Among teenagers with at least 250 plate appearances across all of affiliated baseball, Fragoza has the third-highest wRC+ in the sport, sitting at 154. If you look at teenage qualified hitters (which he is not), he'd rank 10th overall. If you drop both qualifiers and look at production regardless, he'd be a top 25 hitter in all of affiliated baseball. For a guy two years younger than the average hitter at his level, that's about as impressive as it gets. With the Mussels, Fragoza hit .322/.398/.607 (1.005 OPS) with 14 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Performing this well while being this young is a real signal, even if the underlying strikeout numbers suggest there's swing and miss to clean up. Fragoza saved his best for right before his promotion, too. He was named Florida State League Player of the Week after posting a video game-like line that included three home runs, nine stolen bases, and seven total extra-base hits. Shortly after, the Twins promoted him to High-A Cedar Rapids, where he'll look to carry that momentum into a tougher level of competition. Finding a diamond in the rough is one of the more enjoyable parts of following a farm system, and Fragoza checks a lot of the boxes that make a prospect fun to track. However, there's no guarantee he turns into that guy. The free-swinging approach is a real swing limiter, and his defensive future still needs to sort itself out given how much he's bounced around the diamond. Still, a 19-year-old already performing at this level, already forcing multiple promotions, and already doing damage against older competition is exactly the kind of development you want to see from an unheralded prospect. Fragoza might not have much name recognition yet, but that's usually how these stories start. What do you think about Fragoza's breakout? Join the conversation in the comments!
  8. Luis Fragoza is an unheralded teenage prospect who's having one of the best seasons of any prospect in affiliated baseball. With prospect hounds updating their end-of-season lists, will he get his flowers? View full video
  9. Luis Fragoza is an unheralded teenage prospect who's having one of the best seasons of any prospect in affiliated baseball. With prospect hounds updating their end-of-season lists, will he get his flowers?
  10. Even before his injury, Austin Martin was looking lost at the plate for months. With a roster crunch in the outfield, which will get worse this offseason, it's possible he could be in for a new role in 2026. What could that role look like? View full video
  11. Even before his injury, Austin Martin was looking lost at the plate for months. With a roster crunch in the outfield, which will get worse this offseason, it's possible he could be in for a new role in 2026. What could that role look like?
  12. Honestly I think it's something that needs to be developed before they get to the majors. So many guys in this 2026 team are learning new positions at the highest level of baseball in the world. Hard to put all the blame on them.
  13. The Minnesota Twins have a problem that is usually considered a good problem to have. They're too versatile, and that versatility is holding them back. Not only is it blocking top prospects like Walker Jenkins, but it's also impacting performance on the field. View full video
  14. The Minnesota Twins have a problem that is usually considered a good problem to have. They're too versatile, and that versatility is holding them back. Not only is it blocking top prospects like Walker Jenkins, but it's also impacting performance on the field.
  15. Image courtesy of IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect The Minnesota Twins have built their roster around a simple idea: availability is the best ability. It is a philosophy that traces back to the Derek Falvey-Thad Levine front office, and for years it worked. Guys like Marwin Gonzalez, and later Willi Castro, and now Kody Clemens thrived by playing multiple positions and giving the team flexibility. However, watching this 2026 club, I think we have found the exception to that rule. An overabundance of versatility is not making this team better. It is holding it back and blocking the prospects who should be helping to move it forward. In the outfield, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez (to a lesser extent and for different reasons) are knocking on the door. In fact, I think Jenkins should already be up in the big leagues. Instead, he is stuck behind a group of outfielders who all do a little bit of everything but nothing exceptionally well. A group of serviceable veterans is blocking both players in an outfield that is below average defensively, and (aside from Buxton) average offensively. However, that is just one part of the larger core issue with this roster. The Twins have too many players who can capably fill in at multiple spots, and while it looks like a strength on paper, it has been less than ideal on the field. Look at what has happened at the infield corners this season. Brooks Lee opened the year at shortstop while Royce Lewis manned third base. That pairing did not work for either player, so the Twins shuffled them around the infield. Lewis slid over to the right side of the infield, and Lee moved to third. That shuffle then forced Luke Keaschall to the outfield, a position group that was already crowded before he ever got there. One move created a chain reaction, and none of the resulting fits looked ideal. First base has been its own carousel. Josh Bell and Victor Caratini have gotten time there, and so have a few other options who can technically play the position without excelling at it. Shortstop, meanwhile, was a rotating door between Tristan Gray and other fill-ins before the promotion of Kaelen Culpepper (who also may not be a shortstop long-term). Frankly, neither of those stopgap options gave fans much to be excited about. Then there is the outfield beyond Jenkins and Rodriguez. Of course, Byron Buxton is the primary center fielder when healthy, and Trevor Larnach is in the middle of a career year, so those two spots are locked down. But after Matt Wallner was sent down to Triple-A, the Twins turned to a rotating mix of players who could serviceably cover the outfield grass without anyone truly claiming the job. It has been useful in a pinch, sure. But useful is not the same as good, and the difference shows up in the numbers. By defensive runs saved, the Twins currently rank third worst in all of baseball at -25 runs, trailing only the Athletics and Mariners. That is not a coincidence. When you build a roster full of players who are passable at several positions instead of excellent at one, the defense suffers, as does the pitching. I understand the appeal of building a roster this way. It is genuinely helpful to have players who can slide around the diamond when injuries hit or when a young player like Wallner needs more seasoning in the minors. That kind of flexibility has bailed the Twins out more than once this season. But there is a cost to it, and right now the Twins are paying that cost on defense, in the win column, and in playing time for prospects who have earned a real shot. The Twins do not need more players who can capably fill in everywhere. They need players who are genuinely excellent somewhere, even if that means committing to a defined role and letting the versatile depth pieces support from the bench instead of starting every night. Until that changes, expect the shuffling, the defensive miscues, and the frustration from fans watching top prospects wait behind a roster of jacks of all trades. Do you think the Twins’ defensive struggles trace back to too much roster shuffling and a lack of true standouts at each position? Let me know what you think in the comments! View full article
  16. The Minnesota Twins have built their roster around a simple idea: availability is the best ability. It is a philosophy that traces back to the Derek Falvey-Thad Levine front office, and for years it worked. Guys like Marwin Gonzalez, and later Willi Castro, and now Kody Clemens thrived by playing multiple positions and giving the team flexibility. However, watching this 2026 club, I think we have found the exception to that rule. An overabundance of versatility is not making this team better. It is holding it back and blocking the prospects who should be helping to move it forward. In the outfield, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez (to a lesser extent and for different reasons) are knocking on the door. In fact, I think Jenkins should already be up in the big leagues. Instead, he is stuck behind a group of outfielders who all do a little bit of everything but nothing exceptionally well. A group of serviceable veterans is blocking both players in an outfield that is below average defensively, and (aside from Buxton) average offensively. However, that is just one part of the larger core issue with this roster. The Twins have too many players who can capably fill in at multiple spots, and while it looks like a strength on paper, it has been less than ideal on the field. Look at what has happened at the infield corners this season. Brooks Lee opened the year at shortstop while Royce Lewis manned third base. That pairing did not work for either player, so the Twins shuffled them around the infield. Lewis slid over to the right side of the infield, and Lee moved to third. That shuffle then forced Luke Keaschall to the outfield, a position group that was already crowded before he ever got there. One move created a chain reaction, and none of the resulting fits looked ideal. First base has been its own carousel. Josh Bell and Victor Caratini have gotten time there, and so have a few other options who can technically play the position without excelling at it. Shortstop, meanwhile, was a rotating door between Tristan Gray and other fill-ins before the promotion of Kaelen Culpepper (who also may not be a shortstop long-term). Frankly, neither of those stopgap options gave fans much to be excited about. Then there is the outfield beyond Jenkins and Rodriguez. Of course, Byron Buxton is the primary center fielder when healthy, and Trevor Larnach is in the middle of a career year, so those two spots are locked down. But after Matt Wallner was sent down to Triple-A, the Twins turned to a rotating mix of players who could serviceably cover the outfield grass without anyone truly claiming the job. It has been useful in a pinch, sure. But useful is not the same as good, and the difference shows up in the numbers. By defensive runs saved, the Twins currently rank third worst in all of baseball at -25 runs, trailing only the Athletics and Mariners. That is not a coincidence. When you build a roster full of players who are passable at several positions instead of excellent at one, the defense suffers, as does the pitching. I understand the appeal of building a roster this way. It is genuinely helpful to have players who can slide around the diamond when injuries hit or when a young player like Wallner needs more seasoning in the minors. That kind of flexibility has bailed the Twins out more than once this season. But there is a cost to it, and right now the Twins are paying that cost on defense, in the win column, and in playing time for prospects who have earned a real shot. The Twins do not need more players who can capably fill in everywhere. They need players who are genuinely excellent somewhere, even if that means committing to a defined role and letting the versatile depth pieces support from the bench instead of starting every night. Until that changes, expect the shuffling, the defensive miscues, and the frustration from fans watching top prospects wait behind a roster of jacks of all trades. Do you think the Twins’ defensive struggles trace back to too much roster shuffling and a lack of true standouts at each position? Let me know what you think in the comments!
  17. Emmanuel Rodriguez and the Minnesota Twins have a problem. The top organizational prospect will soon be out of options and is lost in the shuffle of a crowded outfield. How will the Twins solve this conundrum? View full video
  18. Emmanuel Rodriguez and the Minnesota Twins have a problem. The top organizational prospect will soon be out of options and is lost in the shuffle of a crowded outfield. How will the Twins solve this conundrum?
  19. After acquiring A.J. Minter and Jeff Hoffman at the trade deadline, the Twins bullpen has gone from serviceable (since July 1, at least) to good. Where do the newcomers fall in the bullpen hierarchy? View full video
  20. After acquiring A.J. Minter and Jeff Hoffman at the trade deadline, the Twins bullpen has gone from serviceable (since July 1, at least) to good. Where do the newcomers fall in the bullpen hierarchy?
  21. Following his first trade deadline, Tom Pohlad spoke to the media saying he thinks he's earned some credibility back with the Minnesota Twins fan base. Do you agree? View full video
  22. Following his first trade deadline, Tom Pohlad spoke to the media saying he thinks he's earned some credibility back with the Minnesota Twins fan base. Do you agree?
  23. Before the trade deadline struck midnight, rumors were swirling that the Toronto Blue Jays were open to trading the newly acquired Jose Soriano. It was news that surprised many, considering they had acquired him on August 3rd for top prospect Arjun Nimmala. Now, a week after the deadline passed, we're getting more details on what those talks entailed. Dan Hayes and Mitch Bannon of The Athletic are reporting that the Minnesota Twins "pursued" Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Soriano. They go on to say it was a "package built around the organization’s No. 3 prospect, infielder Kaelen Culpepper, and other pieces." The deal obviously couldn't get over the finish line, and so the two sides agreed on a trade involving reliever Jeff Hoffman. Of course, Culpepper has since made his major league debut. Soriano, 27, was one of the top starting arms on the market over the trade deadline. This was despite a high walk rate and a FIP about half a run higher than his 3.24 ERA. He was particularly attractive as a starter who is controllable through 2028. Do you think the Twins should have met the asking price for Soriano? Join the conversation in the comments! View full rumor
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