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Matthew Lenz

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Everything posted by Matthew Lenz

  1. Box Score Charlie Barnes: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER (3 R), 1 BB, 3 K Homeruns: Polanco (33), Buxton (19) Top 3 WPA: Polanco (.104), Minaya (.091), Vincent (.085) Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs) Twins Offense Strikes Early It didn’t take but seven pitches for the Twins to take a three-run lead against rookie Jackson Kowar. After a single by Luis Arraez to start the game, Byron Buxton extended his MLB record with his 41st extra-base hit, and then Jorge Polanco went boom. The onslaught continued with a Josh Donaldson walk, Max Kepler single, and an RBI single from Miguel Sanó making it 4-0 Twins before they recorded their first out with a Brent Rooker strikeout. A Nick Gordon fielder's choice scored Kepler and then Ryan Jeffers struck out to end the inning with a 5-0 cushion for Charlie Barnes. The Twins were mostly quiet until the top of the lineup was due up for a third time in the top of the fifth. Arraez led off with another single before Buxton, once again, extended his MLB record with another extra-base hit…this time a four bagger to make it 7-0. That would be the last of the Twins threats of the day as they were only able to muster up two more hits, another came from Arraez, in the last three innings of play. Charlie Barnes Gets Knocked Out Early but Bullpen Finishes Year Strong For the first time all season, Barnes wasn’t able to give the Twins four innings as he was pulled after just eight outs. In his 2 ⅔ innings he allowed nine baserunners and three runs (two earned). He actually posted a respectable 13-percent whiff percentage but when the Royals made contact, they averaged an exit velocity of 106.2 miles per hour, which was ultimately his demise. Juan Minaya came on in relief and was able to hold the Royals to just the three runs followed by a two strikeout inning in the fourth. Nick Vincent shined in his two innings needing only 15 pitches to strikeout two Royals and get six outs. Not to be outdone by Vincent, Kyle Barraclough struck out the side in the seventh and added one more in the eighth before being pulled in favor of Jorge Alcala who finished the inning with a strikeout of his own. Alcala pitched a clean ninth with two strikeouts and earned his first career save after blowing his first four opportunities this year. WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Barraclough 0 14 0 0 36 50 Minaya 22 0 0 0 27 49 Thielbar 0 14 0 26 0 40 Farrell 0 0 38 0 0 38 Moran 0 0 38 0 0 38 Duffey 21 0 0 15 0 36 Alcalá 0 13 0 0 19 32 Vincent 0 16 0 0 15 31 Colomé 18 0 0 7 0 25 Coulombe 0 0 15 0 0 15 Garza Jr. 0 12 0 0 0 12
  2. The Twins finish the season on a high note with back-to-back wins and a series victory over the Royals. They end one of the most disappointing seasons in MLB history with a record 73-89 and last place in the AL Central. That and more in today's recap! Box Score Charlie Barnes: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER (3 R), 1 BB, 3 K Homeruns: Polanco (33), Buxton (19) Top 3 WPA: Polanco (.104), Minaya (.091), Vincent (.085) Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs) Twins Offense Strikes Early It didn’t take but seven pitches for the Twins to take a three-run lead against rookie Jackson Kowar. After a single by Luis Arraez to start the game, Byron Buxton extended his MLB record with his 41st extra-base hit, and then Jorge Polanco went boom. The onslaught continued with a Josh Donaldson walk, Max Kepler single, and an RBI single from Miguel Sanó making it 4-0 Twins before they recorded their first out with a Brent Rooker strikeout. A Nick Gordon fielder's choice scored Kepler and then Ryan Jeffers struck out to end the inning with a 5-0 cushion for Charlie Barnes. The Twins were mostly quiet until the top of the lineup was due up for a third time in the top of the fifth. Arraez led off with another single before Buxton, once again, extended his MLB record with another extra-base hit…this time a four bagger to make it 7-0. That would be the last of the Twins threats of the day as they were only able to muster up two more hits, another came from Arraez, in the last three innings of play. Charlie Barnes Gets Knocked Out Early but Bullpen Finishes Year Strong For the first time all season, Barnes wasn’t able to give the Twins four innings as he was pulled after just eight outs. In his 2 ⅔ innings he allowed nine baserunners and three runs (two earned). He actually posted a respectable 13-percent whiff percentage but when the Royals made contact, they averaged an exit velocity of 106.2 miles per hour, which was ultimately his demise. Juan Minaya came on in relief and was able to hold the Royals to just the three runs followed by a two strikeout inning in the fourth. Nick Vincent shined in his two innings needing only 15 pitches to strikeout two Royals and get six outs. Not to be outdone by Vincent, Kyle Barraclough struck out the side in the seventh and added one more in the eighth before being pulled in favor of Jorge Alcala who finished the inning with a strikeout of his own. Alcala pitched a clean ninth with two strikeouts and earned his first career save after blowing his first four opportunities this year. WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Barraclough 0 14 0 0 36 50 Minaya 22 0 0 0 27 49 Thielbar 0 14 0 26 0 40 Farrell 0 0 38 0 0 38 Moran 0 0 38 0 0 38 Duffey 21 0 0 15 0 36 Alcalá 0 13 0 0 19 32 Vincent 0 16 0 0 15 31 Colomé 18 0 0 7 0 25 Coulombe 0 0 15 0 0 15 Garza Jr. 0 12 0 0 0 12 View full article
  3. I almost think it will be a slap in the face if they decide to spend a lot of money this winter. TBH the strategy they’ve used last two years (cheap, prove it deals) should be used this year while they wait for some of the younger guys to be ready in 2023 and 2024.
  4. He’s be pretty solid this year! But how quickly you forget about Joe Ryan!
  5. He also gave up a homerun to the 9 hitter in his last outing (Ben Rortvedt). This is basically playoff baseball for the Blue Jays and Berríos was good, but this is where you want your top starter to shove…especially against a putrid offense like the Twins. He was good tonight but also got into a lot of trouble that might turn into more runs against a better team. You need someone better than him to anchor a playoff staff.
  6. This Twins rally brought to you by a walk of the 9 batter who is also one of the worst hitters in all of baseball! Add that to my definition of what doesn’t make an ace!
  7. I also co-sign! It's funny because people think that by saying he's not an ace is the same as saying "he's not good" and that's just not the case. Like many have stated in here, Berrios is a good pitcher but I don't want him headlining my rotation heading into a postseason.
  8. You named a bunch of Twins #1 starters, many of whom would be middle to bottom of the rotation arms on most teams. To answer your question, the last ace was Johan Santana. You handed him the ball and had confidence your team was going to win.
  9. The fact he left after 4 and 5 innings is a problem for me. Ultimately it didn't matter because the offense didn't produce, but if he's the pitcher that some people think he is, I need at least 6 innings.
  10. He's only made two starts but has three appearances. Very convenient to shrink an already small sample (3 games) into an even smaller sample, especially when that game you decided to leave out he gave up three earned runs in three innings. I do love that now you want to blame the offense who scored 1 run but wanted to credit Berrios for the win yesterday when his offense gave him a 5-run cushion before he threw a pitch. BUT I'll play your game and focus on only his two starts, and we can even blame the 1st appearance to him not being a reliever. The fact that he only lasted 4.0 and 5.0 innings in those starts is a massive issue for me. That "ace" or "bulldog" you are obsessed with defining would give you at least 6 but really you hope for even more given the magnitude of the game. Before you blame Baldelli, remember the narrative that he pulls pitchers early has already been debunked. At the end of 2020, the Twins starting pitchers had the 7th most innings pitched since Baldelli took over.
  11. I know that if I were to come up with a definition to appease you it wouldn’t include an average career walk rate, a career ERA/FIP above 4, and an average career start of less than 6 IP! It would also need to be sustained for longer than one season, especially when you have 5 seasons as a counterexample to the subjective definition of an “ace”.
  12. Lol wasn’t dancing around it, just don’t see why it matters. The “ace” conversation is frustrating because everyone defines it differently and it really can vary from year to year. In general, I would say there are 5-10 per year. Me saying Berríos isn’t an ace, is not a knock on him nor would it be for 99% of pitchers. Me saying that he’s inefficient is and he’s not a true #1 on a contending team is my knock on him. Define “ace” however you want.
  13. His offense put up 5 runs in the first, the Twins offense sucks, and his opposing pitcher was one of the worst bullpens in baseball. If that’s what you want to hang your hat on then we have very different expectations for pitchers and will never see eye to eye on this.
  14. Oh I completely agree with you. My biggest complaint of him has always been his inefficiency. Watching him dance around the strike zone with his plus “stuff” was frustrating as hell. IMO that’s the biggest limiting factor in his ceiling.
  15. “He’s good enough to be the best pitcher on 20 teams”. My opinion is he can’t be relied on as the best pitcher on a contender and you seem to agree with that.
  16. It was me and I was talking about his whole career and not exclusively this season. His Toronto average is skewed by the small sample..He’s had a couple clunkers with Toronto, otherwise 7/10 starts have been 6+ IP.
  17. Yea but because he was inefficient with lots of deep counts and a decent number of walks. He often would have a high number of pitches, not allowing him to continue on. Moreover, the Twins have the 13th most innings from starters since 2019…they were actually ranked 7th from 2019 to 2020 before this abysmal season. You’re suggestion that Baldelli pulls plug too soon seems off base.
  18. He’s consistently average. Inconsistently good and bad. You never knew if you could count on him for 5 innings or 7. 2 earned runs or 4. I never said he was bad. But a career 4.01 FIP, average of 5.2 IP/start, and 2.9 BB/9 speaks for itself. His 1st half and 2nd half splits are pretty different. Sure, from year to year he was consistently average. But the road to those numbers was very up and down.
  19. Honestly, I think we have similar opinions of Berrios...unless I'm misinterpreting. I think you are slightly higher on him but it seems like neither of us seem him as quality #1 option on a contending team. Last postseason, I wanted Maeda in game 1 and then Pineda to be the pitcher of the "must win" game. Meaning if the Twins won game 1 then save Pineda for a potential game 3. If the Twins lost game 1 then pitch Pineda in game 2. Ultimately, it was the offense that lost the series and Berrios pitched well but I have never felt comfortable with him on the mound. He's been too inconsistent throughout his entire career. Even heading into this season I said that if Berrios is our best pitcher then something went wrong with Maeda or Pineda and we will not be a true contender. Little did I know that it wasn't something that would go wrong...it was everything.
  20. Box Score Luke Farrell: 1.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 K (70.5-percent strikes) Homeruns: Rortvedt (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Farrell (-.332), Kepler (-.099), Cave (-.097) Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs) José Berríos Stifles Twins Lowly Offensive Attack The big storyline headed into today was the Twins bad offense against “old friend” José Berríos who’s having the best second half of his career. Despite pitching well for Toronto over the last month and half, today’s start by the former Twins pitcher was reminiscent of his time in Minnesota. Over the first three innings of the game, Berríos was on point by allowing just one hit, a 1st inning double to Byron Buxton, but only struckout one hitter. The Twins were able to put together a little rally in the fourth when Berríos hit Josh Donaldson which was followed up by back-to-back doubles from Miguel Sano and Nick Gordon to give the Twins their first runs of the game. Berríos settled back by getting 10 of the next 11 Twins batters out and allowing a lone walk to Donaldson in the top of the 6th. He’d go out for the 7th but wouldn’t be able to finish the inning as he allowed a solo homerun to Ben Rortvedt, who was batting ninth for the Twins today. The Twins didn’t have the baserunners or runs to show it but they were actually able to hit their former teammate pretty hard today generating 11 balls with exit velocities of 95 miles per hour or greater. For reference, the Twins bullpen game generated 12 hard hits over the same amount of innings. The three runs against Berríos were the only runs the Twins would get as they weren’t able to muster up a hit after the Rortvedt homer. Bullpen Needs Relief Early The Twins elected to use a bullpen game today, which typically means that each relief pitcher used will try and give the club two to three innings. Unfortunately, Luke Farrell got clobbered in the first inning giving up seven straight hits, including a double and two-run homerun, and five earned runs. Farrell was relieved by Nick Vincent at the start of the second inning who was able to silence the best offense in baseball with two innings of shutout work giving up only a hit and a walk while striking out one. Juan Minaya came on in the fourth allowing a walk and a hit but striking out the nine, one, and four hitters in the Blue Jays high powered offense. He continued his strong appearance with two more strikeouts in the fifth and generated 15-percent whiff rate on his fastballs over the two innings pitched. Caleb Thielbar was up next on the merry-go-round giving up one hit while striking out one. Danny Coulumbe finished up the last two innings of the game by striking out two and allowing just one hit. WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Moran 34 0 0 34 0 68 Barraclough 0 0 0 32 0 32 Coulombe 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colomé 0 0 14 0 0 14 Vincent 21 0 0 0 40 61 Alcalá 0 0 13 0 0 13 Garza Jr. 0 0 0 17 0 17 Duffey 0 0 16 0 0 16 Minaya 0 0 0 0 36 36 Farrell 0 0 0 0 34 34 Thielbar 0 0 0 0 22 22
  21. The Twins got to their former teammate but ultimately weren't able to overcome the five-run first inning from the Blue Jays. They drop the rubber match to Toronto and drop to 65-85 on the season. That and more in today's recap. Box Score Luke Farrell: 1.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 K (70.5-percent strikes) Homeruns: Rortvedt (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Farrell (-.332), Kepler (-.099), Cave (-.097) Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs) José Berríos Stifles Twins Lowly Offensive Attack The big storyline headed into today was the Twins bad offense against “old friend” José Berríos who’s having the best second half of his career. Despite pitching well for Toronto over the last month and half, today’s start by the former Twins pitcher was reminiscent of his time in Minnesota. Over the first three innings of the game, Berríos was on point by allowing just one hit, a 1st inning double to Byron Buxton, but only struckout one hitter. The Twins were able to put together a little rally in the fourth when Berríos hit Josh Donaldson which was followed up by back-to-back doubles from Miguel Sano and Nick Gordon to give the Twins their first runs of the game. Berríos settled back by getting 10 of the next 11 Twins batters out and allowing a lone walk to Donaldson in the top of the 6th. He’d go out for the 7th but wouldn’t be able to finish the inning as he allowed a solo homerun to Ben Rortvedt, who was batting ninth for the Twins today. The Twins didn’t have the baserunners or runs to show it but they were actually able to hit their former teammate pretty hard today generating 11 balls with exit velocities of 95 miles per hour or greater. For reference, the Twins bullpen game generated 12 hard hits over the same amount of innings. The three runs against Berríos were the only runs the Twins would get as they weren’t able to muster up a hit after the Rortvedt homer. Bullpen Needs Relief Early The Twins elected to use a bullpen game today, which typically means that each relief pitcher used will try and give the club two to three innings. Unfortunately, Luke Farrell got clobbered in the first inning giving up seven straight hits, including a double and two-run homerun, and five earned runs. Farrell was relieved by Nick Vincent at the start of the second inning who was able to silence the best offense in baseball with two innings of shutout work giving up only a hit and a walk while striking out one. Juan Minaya came on in the fourth allowing a walk and a hit but striking out the nine, one, and four hitters in the Blue Jays high powered offense. He continued his strong appearance with two more strikeouts in the fifth and generated 15-percent whiff rate on his fastballs over the two innings pitched. Caleb Thielbar was up next on the merry-go-round giving up one hit while striking out one. Danny Coulumbe finished up the last two innings of the game by striking out two and allowing just one hit. WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Moran 34 0 0 34 0 68 Barraclough 0 0 0 32 0 32 Coulombe 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colomé 0 0 14 0 0 14 Vincent 21 0 0 0 40 61 Alcalá 0 0 13 0 0 13 Garza Jr. 0 0 0 17 0 17 Duffey 0 0 16 0 0 16 Minaya 0 0 0 0 36 36 Farrell 0 0 0 0 34 34 Thielbar 0 0 0 0 22 22 View full article
  22. I was cross referencing and mixed up the 2018 season. By fWAR (which has significantly different numbers than bWAR) Gibson (2.6) was actually better than Odorizzi (2.5) but my point was to say that it's not like Berrios (3.1) was our only hope for production that season. There were two other pitchers who were solid contributors. To your point, Berrios is durable. WAR is counting stat. It's not hard to see why Berrios would have a higher WAR than those guys since 2017. Odo's career has been riddled with injuries. Maeda was misused as a reliever for different parts of his career. I wouldn't mind seeing that Twins bring him back depending on the money he's demanding. I'm not really sure what you meant by "It’s almost like when he’s not relied on being the only hope for an ace in the organization he can have fun again and produce. " outside of he can't handle the pressure of being the best pitcher on a team. I didn't take what you said out of context, that's just how I interpreted what you said.
  23. Interesting fun fact! Not sure how it fits in with what I said in the message you quoted
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