Matthew Lenz

IMO, I don't think Lynn has the stuff to be a great bullpen pitcher. I guess he could be a long reliever and give us those innings as needed. lukeduke1980 brought up a good point about possibly having an innings limit put on Romero in which case a move to the bullpen would make the most sense for him. I know they don't look great now, but I'm not ready to write off the Twins has a non-playoff team. That said, things may be different in a month and if we are clearly not a playoff team then trying to dump Lynn would be a good solution.

A week ago Ervin Santana made is 2018 debut with the double-A Chattanooga Lookouts and threw 2 innings (45 pitches) giving up 4 hits, 0 walks, 2 earned runs, while striking out 1. He was pulled early as there was a concern about his velocity, which topped out at 90 mph while he usually sits around 94. Because of this concern he will move down and pitch today for single-A Fort Meyers Miracle, according to Brandon Warne. With this development it is fair to think that we won’t see Ervin on the Twins roster until the end of June at the earliest. Whenever he is ready to make his season debut for the Twins there will be a tough decision for Paul Molitor to make on what to do with his rotation, and that’s what I want to address in this piece assuming the current starting 5 stays healthy. Option #1: Demote Fernando Romero As much as Molitor and Twins fans would not like to see this, I think it is a very likely scenario. Because of options (or the lack thereof) and performance, Romero is the only realistic candidate from the starting rotation. I couldn’t find data on minor league options (does anyone have a resource for this?), but I would guess that Odorizzi, Lynn, and Gibson are out of minor league options while Berrios has been the Twins best pitcher. That leaves Romero as the odd man out. In this case, he would be the first pitcher called upon after an injury or for double headers. Option #2: DFA Grossman and move a starter to bullpen This would be another tough decision for Molitor. Mauer is set to return very soon and I would think that will result in the demotion of Gregorio Petit, which then leaves the Twins with Adrianza, LaMarre, Grossman, and Wilson as their 4 bench players. If Molitor decides to go this route, then we would probably see LaMarre or Grossman as the player to be demoted which would leave a thin bench but a stacked bullpen. Personally, I think Grossman has earned the demotion but I thought that out of spring training too. It’s not uncommon for a starting pitcher to get some time in the bullpen early in their career and with how electric Romero has been this year I think this would be a great option. With the way successful teams have been built the last few years it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Twins to stack their bullpen with another dominant pitcher. Only downside of this is that he most likely wouldn’t be available to start again this year as his arm wouldn’t be ready to throw that much. Option #3: DFA Grossman and utilize 6-man rotation See above on why Grossman is the position player getting demoted. To be honest, I think this option is highly unlikely but it is something to consider. Pitchers (and baseball players in general) are creatures of habit and by nature are not fans of a 6-man rotation. This option allow him to continue to face major league hitting and it allows the Twins some flexibility if they do have injuries. Again, I don’t see this happening but also wouldn’t mind if it did. Personally, I would like to see Romero stay in the majors with whatever roster moves it takes. Realistically, I think option 1 is what is going to happen. Which option do you think is the best? Is there another option I didn’t consider? Lets discuss!

I think he's in, not first ballot, but in. That said, continue playing at an above average level for the next 2-3 years would solidify it even more. Also, thanks for linking to my article. Appreciate the share!

Not trying to open a can of worms here or attack your work. Unless I am missing it, you reference the phrases "high leverage", "medium leverage", and "low leverage" without ever defining what those actually mean. I know those definitions aren't exactly static, but some general explanation of what those means could be helpful. I interpreted this statement, "In his career, Mauer has a career .946 OPS, or a tOPS+ of 127 in 808 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position", as you further proving he is clutch because he hits well with RISP + 2 outs. I wouldn't call it "clutch" if that happens in the first inning, but would might call it "clutch" if that happens in the 9th inning depending on the situation. It's not "clutch" if the game is out of reach in either direction. It is "clutch"if that happens in the 9th inning, we are losing, and he ties the game. It's even "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are tied, and it wins the game. It's EVEN "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are losing, and and it wins the game. I guess my point is what defines "clutch"? What defines low leverage v. medium leverage v. high leverage?

The Lindor home run was so awesome. I had the chills watching him run around the bases and pump up the crowd. The passion he has for the game and his country was so cool. I hope Eddie gets to experience the same thing today!

This. This is correct.

Nice job, Andrew. I think this is an unfair criticism of Mauer. I would be interested to see his BA/OBP/SLG in the 7th - 9th inning, 3 run or less game, with runners in scoring position. I know that anytime you have RISP or RISP w/ 2 outs it takes some clutch factor to get those guys in, but that's very different in the 1st inning than in the 9th inning with the game truly on the line. I also wonder how he fares as compared to other players in the MLB (2004-curent), rather than historically compared to players in the Twins organization. Also, his postseason OPS is awful...we have to be honest about that. Sometimes I think the irrational "hate" that Mauer gets is defended by irrational "love".

Yes - he is the face of the franchise and his jersey is popular. If we went buy jerseys we'd be in the hunt for Carew, Killebrew, and Puckett too. This has nothing to do with it. I don't speak for all fans, but I don't know if I ever bought a ticket just to see Mauer play. He's just not that type of player. I bought a ticket to watch Johan pitch, I bought tickets to see McGuire and Sosa, I bought tickets to see a really good Twins team in the mid-2000's, but I have never once bought a ticket to see Joe slap an opposite field single. This isn't me ripping on him...I appreciate everything about Mauer, but my point is that he's not that "must see" type of player IMO. If they bring him back it should only be based on the market value and whether they believe he makes the team better. Don't get me wrong - it would be awful to see Joe in another uniform but I'm also more impressed with wins than watching aging stars bring down a team. At this point, I don't see a viable replacement so as long as we can get him at a fair deal, then I see him in a Twins uniform for the next few years!

It's no secret that Joe Mauer is in the final year of his eight year, $184 million contract extension signed in 2010. It's also not a secret that Mauer isn't the player he was in 2009 or in the years leading up to that MVP season. What does seem to be a secret, is what thoughts "Falvine" has on Mauer's future past the 2018 season. There are really only three options.1. Stay with the Twins Personally, I think this is the most likely scenario. He's from here, his family is here, he's spent his entire career here, his personality and demeanor (although frustrating to fans) fits well with the "Minnesota nice" mantra, and the Twins are starting to become contenders. So what will it take for the Twins to keep him here? Since his move from catcher (2012), Mauer has played 813 games as a first basemen, which is good for 13th most among 50 qualified players. In that same time he has provided a 14.7 WAR which is good for 10th best: The "good": He's staying healthier, he's getting on base (6/50 in BA and 5/50 in OBP), and he's become one of the best defensive 1B in the game (#1 in UZR in 2017 among 21 qualified players).The "bad": He'll be 36 in April of 2019 (only six qualified players were 36+ years old in '17), he provides no power as a 1B/DH (42/50 in SLG from 2012-17) and despite being healthier he's still good to miss at least 20 games/year not including the days provides no defensive value as a DH.I think it's fair to assume that 2017 is the ceiling of what we can expect from Mauer in 2018 and beyond, although he has been lights out so far this season. Looking at salaries for players who are currently 36+ years old, 2017 and 2018 contract agreements, and salaries of other first basemen around the league, I would be looking for the Twins to give Mauer a two- or three-year deal at $8-$10 million/year not including incentives or player/team options. Again, I believe him signing with the Twins is the most likely scenario. I came up with the $8-$10 million range from looking at the following data. Yonder Alonso signed with the Indians for $8 million per year. Compared to Mauer he provides a little more power, less OBP, and a lot less defense. He's younger, coming off a career year, and also fits the "launch angle" ideal that so many hitters are trending towards. Ultimately, my opinion is that the pros and cons of both players provide a similar value to a team although the type of value they provide are different. I think that provides a sort of baseline going into next offseason. I also looked at players who signed in the 2016/17 offseason who were 36+ years old and although the median salary was $7.75 million a few of those guys are getting paid $13 & $16 million. If I were to include 35+ year olds, which is technically how old Mauer will be at the start of the 2019 season, the median is at $8 million and includes Yadier Molina (a career-long Cardinal) getting paid $20 million. Although the median is lower, I think the higher deals give Mauer/Shapiro some room to negotiate an above the median salary. Especially if Mauer performs similarly to how he did in 2017 and/or is able to hit like he currently is for a majority of 2018. 2. Sign Elsewhere I don't see this happening, but obviously this is a possibility. Assuming Mauer only has a few more years in the big leagues, he could be looking for a team to win now. Now being 2019 or 2020. Depending on what the Twins front office does in free agency over the next couple of years the Twins may or may not be legit World Series contenders. I hate to say it, but with Greg Bird not being able to stay healthy the Yankees may have an opening at first base that would be a good fit for Mauer. Teams like Houston, Boston, the Cubs, Dodgers, Indians and Nationals are also obvious contenders, but currently have a player who is under contract at first base. 3. Retire From what I have read/heard, there have not been any rumblings that Mauer is ready to hang them up. Doesn't mean it's not something to consider. Honestly, I almost think Joe would be more apt to retire than he would be to sign somewhere else. Moving somewhere else obviously would mean either moving his family or moving away from his family, which I don't think he would want to do. Click here to view the article

Fun read! Thanks, Nick. Damn Phil Cuzzi. Why is that not like Twins Daily tagline or a twitter account or something?? Even better maybe the name of someones blog!

I missed Bremer's remark, but that's awesome. Can't take anything for granted. Good article, Ted!

One of the biggest questions entering the 2018 season is what we can expect to get from Kyle Gibson. Much attention has been given to the differences in his first and seond half, so I'd like to take a look and see which version of Kyle Gibson we will get in 2018 or if it is somewhere in between.I don't just want to throw a bunch of statistics at you as that doesn't help determine if his second half is truly repeatable, but I do want to start there as that will guide the rest of the article. Here are a few stats that I think help explain the difference in overall results we saw from Gibson: Clearly, the biggest difference is that he did a lot more striking out and handed out a lot fewer free passes, which is a good recipe for any pitcher. Let’s take a second to appreciate that he had a 331 percent increase in his K/BB percentage from the first half to the second half, which I think helps explain the improvement of virtually every other stat. As reference, Gibson's career K/BB rate stands at 7.9 percent. So what adjustments did Gibson make that contributed to the dramatic difference between his two halves? I used Brooks Baseball pitch f/X data to help me answer this question. Below is an overview of some of the data I will be referencing. Download attachment: TrajMove1H.png Download attachment: TrajMove2H.png Gibson has long been known as a sinker ball pitcher who relies more on ground balls than swing and misses to get him through his work day. Interestingly enough, Gibson threw his sinker about 28 percent of the time in his second half appearances compared to about 40 percent of the time (also his career mark) in the first half. He relied much more on his fastball in the second half than he ever had through his career, especially as the first pitch he threw to batters. Getting ahead in the count, specifically throwing first pitch strikes, is key to a pitcher's success and allows him some flexibility in how he can approach the rest of an at-bat. Last year, some of the best pitchers in baseball, headlined by Clayton Kershaw, led the league in first pitch strikes. Another takeaway from the data above were the differences in pitch movement from his sinker, change up, and slider from each half. Essentially his sinker and change-up dropped more while his slider became more of a mix between a curve and a slider, which some would call a “slurve”. A change in release point can be credited for this change in pitch movement. As a visual, I have attached a graph of his average vertical and horizontal release point for each game in 2017. Vertical release point is measured from the top of the pitching rubber and horizontal release point is measured from the center of the pitching rubber. Download attachment: Type1H.png Download attachment: Type2H.png To summarize these graphs, Gibson lowered his arm angle slightly but the bigger difference was that he slid about a foot towards third base from the first half into the second half (see below). This gave hitters a new perspective from which they saw the ball released from Gibson. Again, these adjustments are part of the reason why his pitches created a different movement pattern in each half. So what does this mean for 2018? Like most, I tend not to look into spring stats too deeply, although he did have a solid, yet unspectacular spring. From video, I can tell you that Gibson has “looked” good this spring and that he has carried his adjustments noted above into spring training. That said, I think Gibson was able to fool a lot of batters in the second half of last season because he had changed his delivery and pitch selection. In other words, hitters had a scouting report on Gibson but then he didn’t follow it and was able to catch hitters off guard. Despite his second half numbers, Gibson is not a guy who is going to consistently strike out almost one batter an inning. He also will not be the pitcher who walked four batters per inning. He will fall somewhere in between. The great thing about 2018 is that Gibson is our number five guy which will help ease expectations from Twins fans. I would expect a typical pitching line for him to be 6 IP, 2-3BB, 4-5K, and 3-4 ER which is pretty good for a back end rotation guy, especially with the backing of a lineup that will be one of the best in the league. Click here to view the article

Good write up, Tom! I look forward to reading these this season. One thing I disagree with that I am seeing everywhere is Duke being labeled a lefty specialist. Yes, he does better against lefties, but have you seen his numbers against righties as a relief pitcher? .236/.328/.379 are his career numbers, but from 2014 - 2017 he held right handed batters to .221/.322/.353 with a 9.8 K/9. Not dominant, but pretty good and good enough to not be labeled a lefty specialist.

One of the biggest questions entering the 2018 season is what we can expect to get from Kyle Gibson. Much attention has been given to the differences in his 1st and 2nd half, so I'd like to take a look and see what version of Kyle Gibson we will get in 2018 or if it is somewhere in between. I don't just want to throw a bunch of statistics at you as that doesn't help determine if his 2nd half is truly repeatable, but I do want to start there as that will guide the rest of the article. Here are a few stats that I think help explain the difference in overall results we saw from Gibson: Clearly, the biggest difference is that he did lot more striking out and handed out a lot less free passes, which is a good recipe for any pitcher. Let’s take a second to appreciate that he had a 331 percent increase in his K/BB percentage from the 1st half to the 2nd half, which I think helps explain the improvement of virtually every other stat. As reference, Gibson's career K/BB rate stands at 7.9 percent. So what adjustments did Gibson make that attributed to the dramatic difference between his two halves? I used Brooks Baseball pitch f/X data to help me answer this question. Below is an overview of some of the data I will be referencing. Gibson has long been known as a sinker ball pitcher who relies more on ground balls than swing and misses to get him through his work day. Interestingly enough Gibson threw his sinker about 28 percent of the time in his 2nd half appearances compared to about 40 percent of the time (also his career mark) in the 1st half. He relied much more on his fastball in the second half than he ever has throughout his career, especially as the first pitch he threw to batters. Getting ahead in the count, specifically throwing first pitch strikes, is key to a pitchers success and allows him some flexibility in how he can approach the rest of an at bat. Last year, some of the best pitchers in baseball lead the league in first pitch strikes headlined by Clayton Kershaw. Another takeaway from the data above that helped was the differences in pitch movement from his sinker, change up, and slider from each half. Essentially his sinker and change up dropped more while his slider became more of mix between a curve and a slider, which some would call a “slurve”. A change in release point can be credited for this change in pitch movement. As a visual, I have attached a graph of his average vertical and horizontal release point for each game in 2017. Vertical release point is measured from the top of the pitching rubber and horizontal release point is measured from the center of the pitching rubber. To summarize these graphs, Gibson lowered his arm angle slightly but the bigger difference was that he slid about a foot towards third base from the first half into the second half (see below). This gave hitters a new perspective from which they saw the ball released from Gibson. Again, these adjustments are part of the reason why his pitches created a different movement pattern in each half. So what does this mean for 2018? Like most, I tend not to look into Spring stats although he did have a solid, yet unspectacular spring. From video, I can tell you that Gibson has “looked” good this spring and that he has carried his adjustments noted above into spring training. That said, I think Gibson was able to fool a lot of batters in the second half of last season because he had changed his delivery and pitch selection. In other words, hitters had a scouting report on Gibson but then he didn’t follow it and was able to catch hitters off guard. Despite his second half numbers, Gibson is not a guy who is going to consistently strike out almost one batter an inning. He also will not be the pitcher who walked 4 batters per inning. He will fall somewhere in between. The great thing about 2018 is that Gibson is our number 5 guy which will help ease expectations from Twins fans. I would expect a typical pitching line for him to be 6 IP, 2-3BB, 4-5K, and 3-4 ER which is pretty good for a back end rotation guy especially with the backing of a lineup that will be on of the best in the league.

With his lack of velo, his career will be defined by locating pitches and having a good repertoire. He seems to have the control/command part figured out, but as you noted, developing a 3rd pitch will be crucial.

Good question. I think at this point he is what he is. Adding to your frame can be a little dangerous for a pitcher as it also puts more stress on your arm since it is not used to the extra mass. That said, velocity shouldn't be generated by the arm but more by the legs. Analyzing the GIF above, I would like to see him utilize his lower half more. This is just an intrasquad scrimmage so he may not be going at 100% but it looks like he more just falls onto his front foot rather than using his back leg as a driving force.

Through the 2018 Adopt-A-Prospect draft I drafted Felix Jorge with the 27th overall pick as my guy for the upcoming season. It will my objective to give you bi-weekly(ish) updates on the Twins prospect this season, but I wanted to start by providing some background information and project what we might see from him in the 2018 season. Profile Felix De Jesus Jorge is a 24 year old right handed pitcher who will be entering his 8th season in the Twins organization after being signed as an international free agent in 2011. He made is Major League debut on July 1st, 2017 against the Kansas City Royals. He pitched 5 solid, yet unspectacular innings before getting pulled and eventually shelled in his second and final Major League outing of the season against the Orioles. He enters the 2018 season currently ranked as the Twins 17th best prospect according to MLB and 7th rated pitching prospect. He is currently on the Twins 40 man roster and has been assigned to start the season at AAA Rochester. Scouting Report Jorge stands at 6' 2", 170 pounds which makes him on the smaller side for your standard Major League pitcher. He has four pitches in his repertoire with his fastball and change-up being his two best pitches followed by his slider and curveball, respectively. His fast ball sits low 90's and then he loses about 10 miles per hour on his change-up, which is a good change of speed. He's a classic Twins pitching prospect as he doesn't overpower hitters, is very hittable, yet has pretty good control averaging about 2.2 walks/9. His delivery is very clean and smooth and he throws from over the top as you can see below from Spring Training a year ago. Projection Being that we already saw him in 2017, I am confident that we will see him again sometime in 2018. That said, he has fallen down the prospect list in the last year and he will be competing with Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves who are currently rated much higher than him. As it stands right now, I would put him third in the pecking order behind Romero and Gonsalves as those two have had pretty solid springs thus far. With injuries, double headers, and other factors it's hard to know exactly when we'll see him but worst case scenario he will be brought up when rosters are expanded on September 1st. Looking a little more long term, I don't think Jorge as the "stuff" to be a reliable starter at the Major League level. He's still young and has room to improve, but I think a #4 or #5 starter is the top end of what to expect from him. More realistically, I view him as being a guy who could come out of the bullpen as a long or middle reliever down the road.

At minimum give him a qualifying offer and receive draft pick compensation when he walks. At maximum offer him a 3 year deal worth $45 million at most. As noted in the article, he's been worth more than that of late but I don't think he will have much bargaining power here. I also think teams will look at his age and expect a decline in numbers to start happening in the next year or two.

Just out of curiosity, where do you get the $130-$140 numbers from? There is no salary cap, so I'm wondering why the Twins would be limited to $140 million? I personally think there will be a combination of options 1 and 2. As with most others, I would love to see them lock up the young talent. To me that's a priority over signing Dozier.

Fun read! I would tend to agree with John, but I also think Platoon brings up a good point. I’d take a good but maybe not dominant pitching staff over an Ace and a not so good pitching staff any day.

The only way I sign Dozier is if it's a 3 year deal or less. This probably won't happen as everyone fights for a long contract, but I think he has another solid 3 years in the tank. It will be interesting to see what next years off season looks like. Are teams going to make guys wait to sign so they don't have to pay the draft pick compensation? I know Ian Desmond is less of a talent than Dozier is, but this is what teams did with him a couple years ago.

I’d LOVE to see Mauer in the lead off spot and Dozier a guy or two behind him. That said, I don’t think Molitor will do that. I think you’re right about the turnover in the lefty lineup. We have a lot of holes against lefties, which is the only reason I can find that would go against the LoMo signing. Good write up!

I hear what you're saying, but I think this is easy. Vargas is out. I see others thinking Vargas could be traded, but he has no trade value, IMO. This was a heck of a steal for the Twins. Even if he only hits 20 bombs. At $6.5 million you can't go wrong with that as a platoon option.