Matthew Lenz

The Twins are on pace to destroy the MLB record for home runs in a season by one team by 40...

Thanks for catching that. I just misspoke. I was looking at his stats as a RHB.

Fair point. Their OPS is 24 points lower and wRC+ is 5 points lower, comparatively, which doesn't seem like a "struggle" or "considerably worse" to me unless you're really trying to look for a flaw in the most potent offense in MLB history. But nonetheless, if we're splitting hairs, then the OP was correct. Fun tidbit that doesn't necessarily mean anything...the Twins are 24th in the league in the number of "high leverage" plate appearances (266). Only other competitive team lower is the Yankees (261) and the Diamondbacks are first with (363).

If you're talking solely about today, then sure. If you're talking as a whole, then you should know that the Twins have the 8th best OPS and wRC+ in "high leverage" situations as defined by FanGraphs.

It was going to be Gibson's start but since he pitched an inning in the 18-inning game they pushed him back and started Thorpe. I was surprised Duffey wasn't the most responsible according to WPA, at least.

The Twins were part of yet another five-plus hour day of baseball, but this time it wasn’t because of extra innings. Despite the White Sox ace being cut short due to a three-hour rain delay the Twins couldn’t take the Sunday rubber match losing just their seventh series on the season.Box Score Thorpe: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 67.1% strikes (47 of 70 pitches) Bullpen (Duffey, Morin, Magill) : 3.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Nelson Cruz (16) Multi-Hit Games: None Top 3 WPA: Garver (.222), Magill (.073), Cruz (.042) Bottom 3 WPA: Gonzalez (-.215), Buxton (-.136), Arraez (-.115) Lewis Thorpe Debuts Who knows what the final line for Lewis Thorpe would have looked like if it wasn’t for mother nature ending his debut after five spectacular innings and only 70 pitches. All afternoon Thorpe was dotting the edge of the strike zone with his fastball and slider to the tune of a 20.0% swinging strike rate on those two pitches, which accounted for strike three on six of his seven strikeouts. Even on Moncada’s two-run home run he hit the spot Garver gave him, but unfortunately Moncada loves the ball low and away as a left handed hitter where he has slugged .571 in 2019, per Brooks Baseball. Other than that blip, which was really Garver’s blip, Thorpe was lights out showing a mastery of his pitches and allowing the defense to help him any time a runner reached base. Offense Sputters Against All-Star Starter Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, was effective and efficient against one of the most potent offenses in baseball allowing only one baserunner and striking out four over five innings. Of course it helped that the starting lineup was missing a few “non all-stars” like Eddie Rosario (IL) and Max Kepler (knee/rest) as well as Miguel Sano (though Sano did come in as a pinch hitter late in the game). Deservedly, Giolito was named an All-Star right as the game was getting back underway. Twins Hit Bullpen Hard But Cannot Overcome Deficit Many on Twitter viewed the rain delay as a good thing, as it meant the end of the road for Giolito and that proved to be true as the Twins came out hitting the ball hard. Nothing came to fruition in the top of the sixth despite three hard hits, but they were able to put three on the board in the seventh thanks to a Nelson Cruz two-run home run and a Sano pinch-hit RBI single. Unfortunately, in the bottom half of the sixth inning Tyler Duffey got roughed up allowing four consecutive singles and two earned runs before being relieved by Mike Morin who got the last two outs of the innings while stranding two runners. Magill followed Morin in the bottom of the seventh and eighth, striking out three while only allowing one hit and hitting upper-90’s on the radar gun with his fastball, which is an interesting and possibly significantly development. The Twins continued to put good wood on the ball in the eighth and ninth, but were unable to score, specifically with Garver in scoring position with only one out in the final frame. Other tidbits: -Odorizzi was named an All-Star. He will join Jorge Polanco as the only Twins representatives ... for now. -As mentioned above, Magill’s fastball topped out at 98 miles per hour multiple times today while it has an average velocity of 95.7 miles per hour. -Buxton's highlight grab in the bottom of the fourth had a xBA (expected batting average) of .670 and a catch probability of five percent. Postgame With Baldelli https://twitter.com/...488620444250112 Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we're going to look at a Cleveland lefty. No, not that one.Oliver Perez, LHP, 37-years-old Cleveland Indians ( in AL Central) Vesting option in 2020 for $2.75M if he reaches 55 games in 2019. 2019: 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 12.15 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 in 20.o IP 2018: 1.39 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 in 32.1 IP What’s to Like? This would be a long shot since teams typically don’t make trades within their division and they’re also competing for a Wild Card spot, but Oliver Perez would be a perfect buy-low candidate as his 4.42 ERA doesn’t look pretty. Perez's peripherals would suggest some progression coming his way as opposing hitters' exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates are all below the league average while his K rate and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) are above the league average, per Statcast. Furthermore, Fangraphs has his FIP in the low threes and his SIERA in the high twos, which gives you an indicator of how poor Cleveland is defensively. Concerns The vesting option will most likely be met, as he’s already at 28 games. That means he’ll be with the team next year, although $2.75M is not much to quabble over. His four seamer, which he throws 14.5 percent of the time, has been the cause of his inflated numbers as batters are slugging 1.071 off the pitch whereas it was literally .000 in 2018, per Statcast. There hasn’t been a drop in velocity so that’s not a concern, but he has thrown the fastball in the strike zone, and more importantly, in the middle of the strike zone more than last year which could be the reason for hitters success. This is an option that should be cheap if they are available but can still effective pieces and an improvement over the bottom half of our bullpen. Also, I’d like to think that pitch location is something that can be overcome with an adjustment in pitch mechanics or different pitch sequencing. See Also Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we'll take a look at Cardinals right-hander John Gant.John Gant, RHP, 26-years-old St. Louis Cardinals (35-33 in NL Central) Three more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 1.66 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 8.53 K/9, 2.13 BB/9 in 38.0 IP 2018: 3.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.50 4.50 K/9, BB/9 in 114.0 IP (19 games started) What’s to Like? He’s just under 27-years-old and could be with the team for three more years, which could turn out to be pretty valuable if his first 33 innings as a full-time reliever are any indication. With a 1.64 ERA his peripherals would obviously suggest the possibility for negative regression, but Gant has elite stuff that has been fooling hitters all year. Per Statcast, the movement of his changeup (23.9 percent usage), four seamer (23.1 percent), and curveball (11 percent) are all considered top 10 or better in the league. This leaves out his most oft used pitch, the sinker (33.1 percent), against which opposing hitters have a slugging percentage of .301 in 2019. Concerns I don’t mean to be overly optimistic, but there isn’t a lot to be concerned about here since he’s been so good. That said, some things to consider: given his age, contract situation, and success he’ll be more expensive than Oliver Perez and Craig Stammen, the move from the NL to the AL means he would be facing better hitting (primarily a DH instead of a pinch hitter), and as he gains more innings, hitters will have more of a scouting report on him. The concerns are really grasping at straws here. Gant would be a phenomenal add to our bullpen and would probably fit right into an eighth-inning role. See Also Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

On top of what Mr. Brooks said, you have to understand that teams don't want to be in the middle. They either want to be contending for a World Series or #1 over draft pick. Specifically right now, when there are 3-4 teams that are clearly better than everyone else...do you really want to fight for a wild card spot when you have little chance of winning it all? I don't think there is a right or wrong answer to that question, but something that FO's are considering...

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today, we'll take a look at Seth Lugo of the Mets.Seth Lugo, RHP, 29-years-old New York Mets (33-34 in NL East) Three more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 2.51 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.69 K/9, 1.59 BB/9 in 32.1 IP 2018: 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 in 101.1 IP (5 games started) What’s to Like? Lugo is a good, not great, reliever that would fit in nicely as a bridge between the starters and eighth or ninth inning guys and could come at a relatively cheap cost. That said, he has effectively pitched a majority of the games in the eighth inning for the Met, so the potential is there for him to come in during a high leverage situation. He is right around league average in his K rate, hard hit rate and xwOBA, and has been very good at limiting free passes as a reliever. As laid out in this article, he also has reverse splits by dominating lefties this year which is something the Twins bullpen is in need of. Concerns Being eligible for arbitration makes him more valuable, and more expensive, than if he were a half year rental. That said, that could also benefit the Twins if he does well. The biggest area of concern would be Lugo’s strand rate with runners in scoring position. Per FanGraphs, he has a 69.4 percent strand rate overall which includes an 80.0 percent rate in “high leverage” situations and just a 9.4 percent (!!!!) rate with men in scoring position. With men in scoring position, his K/9 stays about the same (11.81) but his BB/9 more than doubles (5.06). This could indicate that, with runners on, Lugo is dancing around the strike zone a little more trying to miss bats and get hitters to chase. Something a simple change in philosophy could cure in a matter of no time. Regardless of the concerns, I do think this is one of the better, cheaper options for the Twins to pursue. See Also Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

As the Twins get ready to finish up the four game series against the Blue Jays, Michael Pineda will take the mound for what will be his fourth start of the season. The early returns of his two-year contract have looked good so far as he was another cheap, low-risk signing by the Twins new management during the 2018 offseason. As we’ve seen how shaky our bullpen can be, much of the Twins success this year will rely on their starters and specifically could depend on what version of Pineda they get.Pineda exploded on the scene in 2011 with the Mariners as an All-Star and finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting. Unfortunately, that success was short lived as he spent all of the 2012 and 2013 seasons recovering and rehabbing from a shoulder injury, which can be a career ending or altering injury for a pitcher. Prior to this injury Pineda featured fastball that sat at 95 miles per hour, used an above average slider as his out pitch, and mixed in a circle change-up about six percent of the time. Brooks Baseball did count 23 “sinkers” in 2011 (and 36 for his career), but that’s not enough data to glean anything meaningful from and is likely a misinterpretation of the pitch that was actually thrown. After two lost seasons and a trade to the New York Yankees, Pineda finally returned to the mound for 509 innings from 2014 to 2017. A partially torn ulnar collateral ligament required Tommy John Surgery, causing him to miss a season and half. In his time with the Yankees, his velocity never completely rebounded, sitting at about 94 miles per hour and his slider didn’t have quite the same bite. Despite this, his K-BB percentage held steady and converted in to a ground ball pitcher, although the added ground balls hurt his ERA a little bit, which is evident by his xFIP being almost a full run better than his ERA. Velocity and movement are the two things that make a pitcher effective, but can also be less effective after a pitcher returns from an arm injury, which has help us set some “norms” for what we we’re looking for from Pineda. To give it to you straight, the small sample we have on Pineda in 2019 looks good up front but the peripherals should leave you a little tentative. First thing that sticks out is that his fastball is sitting at 92 miles per hour, which isn’t too surprising as he is still getting back into things after recovering from Tommy John, but is something to definitely keep an eye on if he starts to get hit. As far as his other pitches go, his slider has much less movement than in years past but his circle change has the same velocity and movement as usual. Consequently, he has reverted back to a fly ball pitcher which has flipped his ERA and xFIP by about half of a run. On the other hand, his K-BB rate is the best of his career and he’s been having success because hitters are making contact on pitches outside of the zone significantly more than usual (71.8 percent in 2019 versus 57.1 percent for his career), which leads to less walks and weaker contact. It’s way too early to jump to any conclusions on these figures, but it something to keep an eye as he gets back into the swing of things after a year and a half hiatus. Over his next few starts, the two big things to look at are his fastball velocity and how much “help” he’s getting from the opposing hitters. These tendencies should give you an idea on how the rest of the season will look for Pineda. Click here to view the article

As the Twins get ready to finish up the four game series against the Blue Jays, Michael Pineda will take the mound for what will be his 4th start of the season. The early returns of his two-year contract have looked good so far as he was another cheap, low-risk signing by the Twins new management during the 2018 offseason. As we’ve seen how shaky our bullpen can be, much of the Twins success this year will rely on their starters and specifically could depend on what version of Pineda they get. Pineda exploded on the scene in 2011 with the Mariners as an All-Star and finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting. Unfortunately, that success was short lived as he spent all of the 2012 and 2013 seasons recovering and rehabbing from a shoulder injury, which can be a career ending or altering injury for a pitcher. Prior to this injury he featured fastball that sat at 95 miles per hour, used an above average slider as his out pitch, and mixed in a circle change-up about 6-percent of the time. Brooks Baseball did count 23 “sinkers” in 2011 (and 36 for his career), but that’s not enough data to glean anything meaningful from and is likely a misinterpretation of the pitch that was actually thrown. After two lost seasons and a trade to the New York Yankees, Pineda finally returned to the mound for 509 innings from 2014 to 2017 before a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament required Tommy John Surgery and miss a season and half. In his time with the Yankees, his velocity never completely rebounded sitting at about 94 miles per hour and his slider didn’t have quite the same bite. Despite this his K-BB percentage held steady and converted in to a ground ball pitcher, although the added ground balls hurt his ERA a little bit which is evident by his xFIP being almost a full run better than his ERA. Velocity and movement are the two things that make a pitcher effective, but can also be less effective after a pitcher returns from an arm injury which has help us set some “norms” for what we we’re looking for from Pineda. To give it to you straight, the small sample we have on Pineda in 2019 looks good up front but the peripherals should leave you a little tentative. First thing that sticks out is that his fastball is sitting at 92 miles per hour, which isn’t too surprising as he is still getting back into things after recovering from Tommy John, but is something to definitely keep an eye on if he starts to get hit. As far as his other pitches go, his slider has much less movement than in years past but his circle change has the same velocity and movement as usual. Consequently, he has reverted back to a flyball pitcher which has flipped his ERA and xFIP by about half of a run. On the other hand, his K-BB rate is the best of his career and he’s been having success because hitters are making contact on pitches outside of the zone significantly more than usual (71.8 percent in 2019 versus 57.1 percent for his career) which leads to less walks and weaker contact. It’s way too early to jump to any conclusions on these figures, but it something to keep an eye as he gets back into the swing of things after a year and a half hiatus. Over his next few starts, the two big things to look at are his fastball velocity and how much “help” he’s getting from the opposing hitters. These tendencies should give you an idea on how the rest of the season will look for Pineda.

I'd get to Vegas and take the over on the Twins, Rays, and/or A's then. Nice little parlay would pay out pretty well, I'd think.

As I am anxiously waiting to head Downtown and enjoy the pregame atmosphere at Brothers Bar & Grill, I decided to write about my Twins predictions for this season. Record: 84 - 78, 2nd in division At one point, it looked like the Indians were in a sell mode, but they were able to keep the core of Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, and Bauer together while replacing Edwin Encarcion with Carlos Santana. I think this team is still a high 80's win team. Postseason: Loses Wild-Card Play-In Game to NYY (again) I hate to say it, but I don't see the Twins surviving the Wild Card game against the Yankees or Red Sox. Even if they were to surprise people and win the division they would be pitted against a 100 win Houston Astros team. Lets just be happy with a playoff appearance this season. MVP: Nelson Cruz I was a big fan of the big stick signing and think it will pay off big time, especially with Sano out for the first two month or so. Cy Young: Jose Berrios Improving each of the last three seasons and coming off of his best year at the Major League level, this is the year Berrios takes off. Most Improved: Byron Buxton IF he can stay healthy, his floor for 2019 will be 2017. I think this is, and has to be, the year that Buxton figures it out at the plate. Reliever of the Year: Trevor May May was one of the best relievers in baseball at the end of the last season and that will continue this season. He'll solidify himself as, not only the Twins closer, but also one of the top closers in baseball. Rookie of the Year: Stephen Gonsalves Fernando Romero pitched 55 innnings (limit is 50) in 2018, which no longer makes him a "rookie" by MLB's definition. Otherwise, he'd be the easy selection. If all goes well this year (the baseball gods owe us after last year), then there shouldn't be a need for any significants contributions from a rookie this season. That said, after Romero, I think Gonsalves is the next pitcher in line to receive some big league innings for a spot start or to fill-in during an injury. What are your predictions for the season?

Thanks, John. I will definitely look into your methodology. Already have a couple ideas for a "part 2" this year or how to attack this next year.

Totally agree, that stretch after the All Star Break could have pretty big implications on how the Twins handle the trade deadline.

I wish I would have thought to add little tid bits like this. Good call!

We are inching closer to Opening Day 2019 and, don’t look now but, current forecasts make it seem plausible that the Twins will be hosting the defending American League (AL) Central Division Champions Cleveland Indians on March 28th at 3:10pm. The Thursday, Saturday, Sunday series will be the only three games of the homestand before they start their first road trip traveling to Kansas City, the new look Phillies, and the Mets of New York. April (12 home, 13 away, 5 off) Outside of three games versus the Phillies and five games versus the Houston Astros, the Twins have the opportunity to take advantage of an easy schedule in the first full month of the season. This includes a seven-game homestand versus the Tigers and Blue Jays in mid-April and six total games versus the Baltimore Orioles. May (13 home, 15 away, 3 off) Things get a little tougher in May as their first five games are versus Houston at home (2) and New York Yankees at Yankees Stadium (3). They will face a solid, but not great Angels (6) and Rays (2) team eight times throughout the month and will host the Brewers for two games towards the end of the month. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, and White Sox are also on the docket and will all be series the Twins really need to win. June (12 home, 15 away, 3 off) The third month of the year could be a pivotal month for the Twins as 16 of their 27 games come against division foes, and only three of those games are versus the Indians in Cleveland. That said, five games against the Rays and three games against the Red Sox at Target Field will be a challenge and, specifically with the Rays, could have Wild Card tiebreaker implications down the road. July (12 home, 12 away, 7 off) July will be another important month for the Twins as 13 of their games will be against teams who will likely be in the thick of the developing playoff race. Ten of those aforementioned games will be immediately following the All-Star Break in Cleveland for three games and hosting the A’s and Yankees for seven games. If they struggle during that stretch, then they have the opportunity of playing the White Sox and Marlins to end the month. August (16 home, 12 away, 3 off) The “dog days of summer” will be something the Twins look forward to this season...kind of (see below). They have a tough 10 game homestand where they will face the Braves (3) and Indians (4) followed by two games in Milwaukee. Outside of those nine games, the other 19 will be against teams who are currently projected for 74 wins or less according to Vegas. September (13 home, 14 away, 3 off) Uf-dah (why does my Grammarly recognize this as a word?). In the months final season, the Twins will have twelve consecutive games against teams who will likely be battling for a playoff spot, including six critical games against the Indians. The other six will be at Fenway and versus the Nationals at home. Unfortunately, these games occur earlier in the month which makes it less likely these teams have clinched anything at that point. This is by far the toughest stretch of the season and it comes during the most important time of the season. I should mention that they end the season with 13 games versus the bottom three teams in the division. Notes of Interest The longest homestand of the season is ten games versus August 2nd through August 11th versus the Royals, Braves, and Indians. The longest road trip of the season is 10 games and 12 days, including a day of travel, starting May 29th and going through June 9th versus the Rays, Indians, and Tigers. There must be some labor law I’m unaware of that teams will have at least one off day in a two-week period as the Twins play on 13 consecutive games at a few different points throughout the season. That said, the Twins do have three different stretches of 26 games in 27 days including two such stretches that occur at the beginning and very end of August. The most difficult stretch of the season was mentioned above, but what should be the easiest stretch of the seasons occurs in the 17 games leading up to the trip to Fenway. Those 17 games will be against the Rangers, White Sox, and Tigers. Notable Promotions - follow the link for full list March 28th (Opening Day) v. Cleveland - Twins Puffer Vest April 27th v. Orioles - Twins Plaid Flap Cap May 24th v. White Sox - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #1 June 15th v. Royals - Joe Mauer Day & No. 7 Baseball Cap July 19th v. Athletics - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #2 August 3rd v. Royals - Joe Nathan Hall of Fame Bobblehead August 4th v. Royals - Joe Nathan and Jerry Bell Hall of Fame Pins August 24th v. Tigers - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #3 September 7th v. Indians - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #4 Breaking down a schedule is an interesting exercise. Not that you’re ever going to feel bad for someone making millions of dollars, but you can definitely appreciate how grueling the Major League Baseball season is. What are you looking forward to this upcoming Twins season? Any games or series you have your eye on right away? Let me know if the comments!