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Matthew Lenz

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  1. Last week, our Jeremy Nygaard designed an overhaul to Major League Baseball’s regular season after Rob Manfred’s ideas of restructuring the playoffs for 2022. Below is a proposed redesign for MLB’s All Star Weekend that will result in better marketing and showcasing of the sports best players.Last week, our Jeremy Nygaard designed an overhaul to Major League Baseball’s regular season after Rob Manfred’s ideas of restructuring the playoffs for 2022. Below is a proposed redesign for MLB’s All Star Weekend that will result in better marketing and showcasing of the sports best players. In the overhaul mentioned above, teams will be provided with an entire week for All-Star festivities which will begin in the last few days of June and extend into the beginning of July. The redesign of the All-Star festivities are inspired from the three other major american sports. Total All-Stars Selected There will be 60 All-Stars selected which is about 15 less than normal. The position you play...doesn’t matter. The team you play for...doesn’t matter. The league you play in...doesn’t matter. Lets see the top sixty players in baseball compete. How All-Stars Will Be Selected This week is as much for the fans as it is for the players (and their bonuses), so a fan vote is still important and will account for the first 45 or, 75-percent, of the players selected. The next six, or ten-percent, of the players will be selected by the Baseball Writers’ of America Association (BBWAA). The next six, or ten-percent, of the players will be selected by the players and managers of MLB. The final three, or five-percent, of the players will be selected through an objective process using WAR. This will hopefully reduce the number of “snubs” by having so many different parties having a say in who is selected. Competitions for the Week The Futures Game and Celebrity Softball game will still be part of the week. The rest week will be filled with both individual and team based competitions. Being that players weren’t named All-Stars by position there won’t be a formal baseball game played at all during the week. Why is that? The first thing that comes to mind when I think of any of the four major sports most recent All-Star weekends is how Jarvis Landry dominated a game of dodgeball, how Ja Morant threw an alley-oop to Zion Williamson, or Luka Doncic and Trae Young making shots from half court. I can’t tell you who won any of the actual games. MLB All-Star Week will be filled with mini-games where players can win individual awards as well as an overall team award. Individual Competitions - these are optional for players to participate in and, when noted, will have limits on how many players can participate. To encourage players to participate, their results could impact the weekend down the road. Home Run Derby (top eight All Stars by home run) - very similar to the current format but instead of total home runs hit, players will advance by their home run distance. When I say advance, I mean lets ditch the bracket and lets see the top-four (of eight) advance to the semi-final, and the top-two advance to the final. Again, home run distance is all that matters.Skills Course (no limit) - players will start in centerfield and perform the following skills. Like the NBA Dunk Contest, there will be a panel of former players and manager or BBWAA members to assign a score to the fielding parts of the competition.Players will attempt to rob one home run ballPlayers will return to centerfield and attempt to make a diving catch on a short flyballPlayers will move into shortstop and attempt to field one ground ball and make an accurate throw to first.Players will move in front of the pitchers mound and throw one ball as hard as they can. They will earn a score on a 10-points scale based on their speedPlayers will move to the batter's box and perform two bunts. They will earn a score out of 10 points based on where the ball lands in a grid that is painted on the field.On the second bunt, the player will immediately run to first base (the clock starts when the bat makes contact with the ball or when the ball crosses home plate if the bunt is missed). Players will earn a score out of 10 points based on their time to first base.“Top Golf” (no limit) - players will essentially take batting practice but will attempt to hit certain targets on the field. Like “Top Golf”, you will get points for how close to the center of the target you hit and how far away the target is from home plate.Team Competitions - there will be 15 teams (four players per team). The top 15 fan vote getters will be captains and will draft three additional players. The teams will be separated into three pools (five teams per pool) and will compete against one other team in the competitions below. The winner from each pool and one wildcard will then advance to a bracket style wiffle tournament. Any pool tiebreakers will be broken based on the scores of the individual competition that each teammate participated in.Dodgeball - no special rules, just your classic “dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge” game. Last man standing gets a win for their team.Stolen Base Challenge - one team will try to steal second. The other team will have a pitcher, catcher, first basemen, and shortstop ready to try and pick off the runner or throw him out on the steal attempt. Once all four runners have gone, the teams will flip flop roles. Team with the most stolen bases wins. If there is a tie, teams will compete in an NHL shoutout-esque stolen base-off.Glove Flip Game (best of three) - this is a very popular game that amateur players play before the actual game starts. Eight players will stand in a circle, alternating a representative from each team, and use their gloves to flip the ball continuously until the ball hits the ground. There will be a judge on whether it was a bad flip or a miss and that player will be assessed a strike. Three strikes and you’re out. Traditionally, a player will turn his hat sideways after strike one, backwards after strike two, and then they’re out after strike three.The Primetime Wiffle Ball TournamentIn place of the traditional All-Star Game, the three pool winners and one wild card will compete in a wiffle ball tournament. To air three games during primetime, a new inning will not start once the game is 30 minutes old. There will not be any baserunning and hitters will start with a 1-1 count (like slow pitch softball) and pitchers will throw at a wiffle ball strike zone. There will be one pitcher and three fielders, and the field will be set up as seen below. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2020-02-25 at 7.43.07 PM.png Admittedly, a radical idea with a lot of intricacies and explaining it by word definitely makes it overwhelming to imagine. Looking at the three other major American sports, it seems “mini competitions” are taking over their All-Star festivities. My thoughts are that there is no better way to grow the game, especially with the youth, then allow the professionals to relive their youth in front of a national audience. What do you think? Should the current set up be left as-is? What would you change? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  2. Last week, our Jeremy Nygaard designed an overhaul to Major League Baseball’s regular season after Rob Manfred’s ideas of restructuring the playoffs for 2022. Below is a proposed redesign for MLB’s All Star Weekend that will result in better marketing and showcasing of the sports best players. In the overhaul mentioned above, teams will be provided with an entire week for All-Star festivities which will begin in the last few days of June and extend into the beginning of July. The redesign of the All-Star festivities are inspired from the three other major american sports. Total All-Stars Selected There will be 60 All-Stars selected which is about 15 less than normal. The position you play...doesn’t matter. The team you play for...doesn’t matter. The league you play in...doesn’t matter. Lets see the top sixty players in baseball compete. How All-Stars Will Be Selected This week is as much for the fans as it is for the players (and their bonuses), so a fan vote is still important and will account for the first 45 or, 75-percent, of the players selected. The next six, or ten-percent, of the players will be selected by the Baseball Writers’ of America Association (BBWAA). The next six, or ten-percent, of the players will be selected by the players and managers of MLB. The final three, or five-percent, of the players will be selected through an objective process using WAR. This will hopefully reduce the number of “snubs” by having so many different parties having a say in who is selected. Competitions for the Week The Futures Game and Celebrity Softball game will still be part of the week. The rest week will be filled with both individual and team based competitions. Being that players weren’t named All-Stars by position there won’t be a formal baseball game played at all during the week. Why is that? The first thing that comes to mind when I think of any of the four major sports most recent All-Star weekends is how Jarvis Landry dominated a game of dodgeball, how Ja Morant threw an alley-oop to Zion Williamson, or Luka Doncic and Trae Young making shots from half court. I can’t tell you who won any of the actual games. MLB All-Star Week will be filled with mini-games where players can win individual awards as well as an overall team award. Individual Competitions - these are optional for players to participate in and, when noted, will have limits on how many players can participate. To encourage players to participate, their results could impact the weekend down the road. Home Run Derby (top eight All Stars by home run) - very similar to the current format but instead of total home runs hit, players will advance by their home run distance. When I say advance, I mean lets ditch the bracket and lets see the top-four (of eight) advance to the semi-final, and the top-two advance to the final. Again, home run distance is all that matters. Skills Course (no limit) - players will start in centerfield and perform the following skills. Like the NBA Dunk Contest, there will be a panel of former players and manager or BBWAA members to assign a score to the fielding parts of the competition.Players will attempt to rob one home run ball Players will return to centerfield and attempt to make a diving catch on a short flyball Players will move into shortstop and attempt to field one ground ball and make an accurate throw to first. Players will move in front of the pitchers mound and throw one ball as hard as they can. They will earn a score on a 10-points scale based on their speed Players will move to the batter's box and perform two bunts. They will earn a score out of 10 points based on where the ball lands in a grid that is painted on the field. On the second bunt, the player will immediately run to first base (the clock starts when the bat makes contact with the ball or when the ball crosses home plate if the bunt is missed). Players will earn a score out of 10 points based on their time to first base. [*]“Top Golf” (no limit) - players will essentially take batting practice but will attempt to hit certain targets on the field. Like “Top Golf”, you will get points for how close to the center of the target you hit and how far away the target is from home plate. Team Competitions - there will be 15 teams (four players per team). The top 15 fan vote getters will be captains and will draft three additional players. The teams will be separated into three pools (five teams per pool) and will compete against one other team in the competitions below. The winner from each pool and one wildcard will then advance to a bracket style wiffle tournament. Any pool tiebreakers will be broken based on the scores of the individual competition that each teammate participated in. Dodgeball - no special rules, just your classic “dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge” game. Last man standing gets a win for their team. Stolen Base Challenge - one team will try to steal second. The other team will have a pitcher, catcher, first basemen, and shortstop ready to try and pick off the runner or throw him out on the steal attempt. Once all four runners have gone, the teams will flip flop roles. Team with the most stolen bases wins. If there is a tie, teams will compete in an NHL shoutout-esque stolen base-off. Glove Flip Game (best of three) - this is a very popular game that amateur players play before the actual game starts. Eight players will stand in a circle, alternating a representative from each team, and use their gloves to flip the ball continuously until the ball hits the ground. There will be a judge on whether it was a bad flip or a miss and that player will be assessed a strike. Three strikes and you’re out. Traditionally, a player will turn his hat sideways after strike one, backwards after strike two, and then they’re out after strike three. The Primetime Wiffle Ball Tournament In place of the traditional All-Star Game, the three pool winners and one wild card will compete in a wiffle ball tournament. To air three games during primetime, a new inning will not start once the game is 30 minutes old. There will not be any baserunning and hitters will start with a 1-1 count (like slow pitch softball) and pitchers will throw at a wiffle ball strike zone. There will be one pitcher and three fielders, and the field will be set up as seen below. Admittedly, a radical idea with a lot of intricacies and explaining it by word definitely makes it overwhelming to imagine. Looking at the three other major American sports, it seems “mini competitions” are taking over their All-Star festivities. My thoughts are that there is no better way to grow the game, especially with the youth, then allow the professionals to relive their youth in front of a national audience. What do you think? Should the current set up be left as-is? What would you change? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  3. I think Berrios being the staff ace is arguable. In a one game winner take all, I want Pineda before Berrios for sure and possibly Hill. To be transparent, I’m suffering from Berrios fatigue. He’s a good pitcher but I’m sick of people treating him like he’s anything more than that.
  4. With the news that former Twins great Justin Morneau will be the lone member of the 2020 Twins Hall of Fame class, this piece will look at three other candidates for 2021. Being that it’s just a matter of time, this piece will not look at Joe Mauer, but will look for other less obvious candidates.With the news that former Twins great Justin Morneau will be the lone member of the 2020 Twins Hall of Fame class, this piece will look at three other candidates for 2021. Being that it’s just a matter of time, this piece will not look at Joe Mauer, but will look for other less obvious candidates. Was it surprising to anyone else that Mauer was not named as an inductee with Morneau? It seems super fitting for Mauer and Morneau to enter the Twins Hall of Fame as the M&M boys of the mid-2000/early-2010 Twins. Regardless, Mauer will not be an inductee this year but will undoubtedly be sometime in the near future. Per the Twins website, “the Twins Hall of Fame [was established in 2000 and] annually recognizes uniform personnel who have made significant contributions to the franchise and game of baseball across the Upper Midwest”. Here are three other Twins who are potential candidates for the 2021 class. Roy Smalley For the better part of nine seasons, Roy Smalley was the starting shortstop for the Minnesota Twins, including his lone All-Star season in 1979. He is the best Twins shortstop of all-time and helped the team win its first World Series title in 1987. He’s already been inducted into the USC Athletic Hall of Fame and the College Baseball Hall of Fame. In his post playing career Smalley has spent 17 seasons in some role on the Twins broadcast team. Per the Twins website, “[smalley] serves as President on the Board of Directors for the nonprofit organization Pitch In For Baseball and is an advocate for the Boys & Girls Clubs of the Twin Cities”. If you only consider his playing career then it becomes a much more arguable case, but when you look at the whole picture I think Smalley is deserving of being inducted in 2021. He’s been contributing to the franchise in one form or another for about 45-percent of its time in Minnesota. Corey Koskie His career with the Twins was short lived with only six plus seasons as their anchor at third base and his entire career was cut short due to concussions. Arguably, he is the greatest third basemen the Twins have ever had (for now) even garnering an MVP vote after his 2001 campaign. He’s even a member of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame which Morneau currently cannot say. In his post playing career, he is giving back to the baseball community through coaching right here in the Twin Cities area and has also started a podcast called “How I Got Here with Corey Koskie” where he interviews athletes on the path they took to get where they are in their careers. This is another case where the whole picture makes Koskie a deserving candidate in my eyes. Yes, he was only here for six years, but as a player he was a key cog in the team going from contraction to three consecutive division championships. Furthermore, his continued work in the local community shouldn’t go unnoticed. Ron Gardenhire “Gardy” is the second winningest manager of all-time and led his teams to more playoff appearances than any other manager of the franchise. Most importantly, he was another person who led the team from contraction to six division titles in nine seasons. His community outreach isn’t readily available in a google search but his down to earth personality and humility during his time as manager would lead one to assume he’s a very giving person. His tenure with the Twins was overshadowed by his lack of postseason success, but the bigger picture cannot be missed here. I’m not sure when people become eligible but I’d think Gardy is near a lock when he is first put on the ballow. Who are some names I missed? Are there others you’d consider? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  5. With the news that former Twins great Justin Morneau will be the lone member of the 2020 Twins Hall of Fame class, this piece will look at three other candidates for 2021. Being that it’s just a matter of time, this piece will not look at Joe Mauer, but will look for other less obvious candidates. Was it surprising to anyone else that Mauer was not named as an inductee with Morneau? It seems super fitting for Mauer and Morneau to enter the Twins Hall of Fame as the M&M boys of the mid-2000/early-2010 Twins. Regardless, Mauer will not be an inductee this year but will undoubtedly be sometime in the near future. Per the Twins website, “the Twins Hall of Fame [was established in 2000 and] annually recognizes uniform personnel who have made significant contributions to the franchise and game of baseball across the Upper Midwest”. Here are three other Twins who are potential candidates for the 2021 class. Roy Smalley For the better part of nine seasons, Roy Smalley was the starting shortstop for the Minnesota Twins, including his lone All-Star season in 1979. He is the best Twins shortstop of all-time and helped the team win its first World Series title in 1987. He’s already been inducted into the USC Athletic Hall of Fame and the College Baseball Hall of Fame. In his post playing career Smalley has spent 17 seasons in some role on the Twins broadcast team. Per the Twins website, “[smalley] serves as President on the Board of Directors for the nonprofit organization Pitch In For Baseball and is an advocate for the Boys & Girls Clubs of the Twin Cities”. If you only consider his playing career then it becomes a much more arguable case, but when you look at the whole picture I think Smalley is deserving of being inducted in 2021. He’s been contributing to the franchise in one form or another for about 45-percent of its time in Minnesota. Corey Koskie His career with the Twins was short lived with only six plus seasons as their anchor at third base and his entire career was cut short due to concussions. Arguably, he is the greatest third basemen the Twins have ever had (for now) even garnering an MVP vote after his 2001 campaign. He’s even a member of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame which Morneau currently cannot say. In his post playing career, he is giving back to the baseball community through coaching right here in the Twin Cities area and has also started a podcast called “How I Got Here with Corey Koskie” where he interviews athletes on the path they took to get where they are in their careers. This is another case where the whole picture makes Koskie a deserving candidate in my eyes. Yes, he was only here for six years, but as a player he was a key cog in the team going from contraction to three consecutive division championships. Furthermore, his continued work in the local community shouldn’t go unnoticed. Ron Gardenhire “Gardy” is the second winningest manager of all-time and led his teams to more playoff appearances than any other manager of the franchise. Most importantly, he was another person who led the team from contraction to six division titles in nine seasons. His community outreach isn’t readily available in a google search but his down to earth personality and humility during his time as manager would lead one to assume he’s a very giving person. His tenure with the Twins was overshadowed by his lack of postseason success, but the bigger picture cannot be missed here. I’m not sure when people become eligible but I’d think Gardy is near a lock when he is first put on the ballow. Who are some names I missed? Are there others you’d consider? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  6. God forbid we add a marketing opportunity and a little bit of fun!
  7. A "gimmicky TV special revenue" to some can also be called marketing to others. Especially in a sport that is desperate for good marketing.
  8. I don't think I said any of this, other than going with the "dilution" theory. Yes, anything can happen in any sport. But that doesn't mean that any and every time should get a shot at competing in the playoffs. Adding games to any sport will never "hurt" the playoffs or that sport. More games = more money.
  9. I don't know how well this would work out but it sounds fun!
  10. Why does it have to be awkward? Just because you pick a certain time doesn't mean it's a sign of disrespect. I would bet that the 2019 Houston Astros would have picked the Tampa Bay Rays in the Division Series over the Yankees or Twins. Not because Tampa Bay was a bad team but because the Yankees and Twins offenses were that good.
  11. On February 10th, Joel Sherman of the New York Post released an exclusive article laying out Rob Manfred’s proposal for a new playoff structure. The news sure had the Twitterverse, including current and former players, like Trevor Bauer and Trevor Plouffe, stirring, ready to share their reaction.This piece will summarize the proposal and then include some subjective commentary on how it could impact baseball. After reading, I look forward to hearing what you think and what ideas, if any, you have on a possible restructure. So let's start with a quick bullet point summary of the proposal: Increase playoff teams from five to seven in each league, which introduces two additional Wild Card teams.The team with the best record in each league will receive a bye to the Division Series.The Wild Card Series would be a three-game series where all games take place at the home of the teams with the best record.The division winner with the second-best record would choose who they play of the three lower Wild Card teams.The division winner with the third-best record would choose who they play of the two remaining lower Wild Card teams.The last two Wild Card teams remaining will play each other.There will no longer be Game 163s... the tiebreaker at the end of the regular season will be their head-to-head record.There will be a “selection show” on the last day of the regular season where teams will pick in a reality TV-esque show.I believe that the playoffs should be as exclusive as reasonably possible. I still don’t like the fact that the playoffs were expanded in 2012, and believe that the team that loses the Wild Card play-in game should not be credited with a playoff appearance. That’s right, in my eyes, the Twins did NOT make the playoffs in 2017... sorry, not sorry. Needless to say, I don’t like expanding the playoffs even more as it takes away some of the meaning of making a playoff appearance. Furthermore, by expanding the playoffs I think you encourage teams to remain complacent. If you decide to truly “tank” you’re not going to be vying for one of the last Wild Card spots even with the expansion. On the other hand, if you are an average to slightly above average team expected to win ~85 games, you now have the opportunity to appease your fan base by “making the playoffs” without feeling the pressure to add an expensive or high-impact piece. Oh, and owners get the added financial benefit of playing at least two extra games without the payroll commitment. All that said, I love the rest of the proposal. You don’t need to expand the playoffs to allow the top division winner to choose their opponent. Strategically, a team might decide to play the best team available right away while they know the health of their players or if they feel they match up better against the team. That’s one aspect of the proposal I would change: Why does the division winner have to choose from one of the Wild Card winners? It wouldn’t be completely crazy to see one of the Wild Card teams actually have a better record than the third-best division winner. While you’re at it, give me an hour-long selection show special for some added drama. I wouldn’t hate to see the current one-game playoff change to the proposed best-of-three series where the Wild Card team with the better record hosts all three games. Anything fluky can happen in one game, so that’s not a great measure of who is truly the better team. And if the losing team puts up a respectable fight in the series, I’d even consider crediting them with a playoff appearance. What do you think of the proposal? Does it deter tanking? Would you make any changes to the current structure? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  12. This piece will summarize the proposal and then include some subjective commentary on how it could impact baseball. After reading, I look forward to hearing what you think and what ideas, if any, you have on a possible restructure. So let's start with a quick bullet point summary of the proposal: Increase playoff teams from five to seven in each league, which introduces two additional Wild Card teams. The team with the best record in each league will receive a bye to the Division Series. The Wild Card Series would be a three-game series where all games take place at the home of the teams with the best record. The division winner with the second-best record would choose who they play of the three lower Wild Card teams. The division winner with the third-best record would choose who they play of the two remaining lower Wild Card teams. The last two Wild Card teams remaining will play each other. There will no longer be Game 163s... the tiebreaker at the end of the regular season will be their head-to-head record. There will be a “selection show” on the last day of the regular season where teams will pick in a reality TV-esque show. I believe that the playoffs should be as exclusive as reasonably possible. I still don’t like the fact that the playoffs were expanded in 2012, and believe that the team that loses the Wild Card play-in game should not be credited with a playoff appearance. That’s right, in my eyes, the Twins did NOT make the playoffs in 2017... sorry, not sorry. Needless to say, I don’t like expanding the playoffs even more as it takes away some of the meaning of making a playoff appearance. Furthermore, by expanding the playoffs I think you encourage teams to remain complacent. If you decide to truly “tank” you’re not going to be vying for one of the last Wild Card spots even with the expansion. On the other hand, if you are an average to slightly above average team expected to win ~85 games, you now have the opportunity to appease your fan base by “making the playoffs” without feeling the pressure to add an expensive or high-impact piece. Oh, and owners get the added financial benefit of playing at least two extra games without the payroll commitment. All that said, I love the rest of the proposal. You don’t need to expand the playoffs to allow the top division winner to choose their opponent. Strategically, a team might decide to play the best team available right away while they know the health of their players or if they feel they match up better against the team. That’s one aspect of the proposal I would change: Why does the division winner have to choose from one of the Wild Card winners? It wouldn’t be completely crazy to see one of the Wild Card teams actually have a better record than the third-best division winner. While you’re at it, give me an hour-long selection show special for some added drama. I wouldn’t hate to see the current one-game playoff change to the proposed best-of-three series where the Wild Card team with the better record hosts all three games. Anything fluky can happen in one game, so that’s not a great measure of who is truly the better team. And if the losing team puts up a respectable fight in the series, I’d even consider crediting them with a playoff appearance. What do you think of the proposal? Does it deter tanking? Would you make any changes to the current structure? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  13. We now have ZIPS and Steamer projections for 2020. After (obviously) looking at the projections of total home runs where Steamer has the Twins at 262 and ZIPS at 264, the attention was then turned to look for notably different projections.I started by sorting both groupings by WAR and noticed right away that Randy Dobnak was projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him projected for a WAR of 2.1 whereas Steamer is at just 0.7. For reference, Dobnak contributed a 0.8 fWAR in 2019 in just 28 1/3 innings pitched. Comparing K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and ERA it’s clear that Steamer doesn’t quite buy into his 2019 campaign like ZIPS does, although the biggest explanation for this is innings pitched. Steamer has him pitching just 90 innings in 2020 whereas ZIPS has him at 147 innings. Regardless, a 0.7 fWAR over 90.0 innings is quite a bit different than 0.8 fWAR in 28 1/3 innings. It would be fair to temper expectations for the Twins 2019 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, as he only gets to 147 innings due to injuries from the starting staff. Many Twins fans are awaiting the true breakout of Jose Berrios and view 2020 as the year it will happen. After a good first half in 2019 he struggled to carry that into the second half of the season. Unfortunately, both ZIPS and Steamers view him as a “quality” starter in 2020 which isn’t what you want to hear about your number one. Quite literally, both projections have him average six innings per start and giving up close to three runs, although ZIPS is slightly more optimistic on him which turned out to be a theme between the two projections. Essentially, both projections view him as a slightly better version of Kyle Gibson’s career as a Twin which is another thing you don’t want to hear about your number one. On the offensive side, Twins utility man and third catcher Willians Astudillo is projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him contributing 1.5 WAR whereas Steamer has him at just a 0.3 WAR. This is largely due to Steamer projecting him for just 50 at-bats, which is realistic considering the signing of Alex Avila and 2019 emergence of both Jake Cave and Ehire Adrianza as quality role players. Like Dobank, at this point in his career, Astudillo’s comical character may overshadow his flaws as a contributor at the major league level. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  14. I started by sorting both groupings by WAR and noticed right away that Randy Dobnak was projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him projected for a WAR of 2.1 whereas Steamer is at just 0.7. For reference, Dobnak contributed a 0.8 fWAR in 2019 in just 28 1/3 innings pitched. Comparing K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and ERA it’s clear that Steamer doesn’t quite buy into his 2019 campaign like ZIPS does, although the biggest explanation for this is innings pitched. Steamer has him pitching just 90 innings in 2020 whereas ZIPS has him at 147 innings. Regardless, a 0.7 fWAR over 90.0 innings is quite a bit different than 0.8 fWAR in 28 1/3 innings. It would be fair to temper expectations for the Twins 2019 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, as he only gets to 147 innings due to injuries from the starting staff. Many Twins fans are awaiting the true breakout of Jose Berrios and view 2020 as the year it will happen. After a good first half in 2019 he struggled to carry that into the second half of the season. Unfortunately, both ZIPS and Steamers view him as a “quality” starter in 2020 which isn’t what you want to hear about your number one. Quite literally, both projections have him average six innings per start and giving up close to three runs, although ZIPS is slightly more optimistic on him which turned out to be a theme between the two projections. Essentially, both projections view him as a slightly better version of Kyle Gibson’s career as a Twin which is another thing you don’t want to hear about your number one. On the offensive side, Twins utility man and third catcher Willians Astudillo is projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him contributing 1.5 WAR whereas Steamer has him at just a 0.3 WAR. This is largely due to Steamer projecting him for just 50 at-bats, which is realistic considering the signing of Alex Avila and 2019 emergence of both Jake Cave and Ehire Adrianza as quality role players. Like Dobank, at this point in his career, Astudillo’s comical character may overshadow his flaws as a contributor at the major league level. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  15. Could be but then what about Sano, who is already a below average defender? He's stuck at 1B, assumedly, for the next four seasons.
  16. Alright, we’ve all had time to be excited about the Minnesota Twins making an impact move and landing MLB Trade Rumors' fifth-best free agent of 2020. Now, it’s time to look at the other side: why isn’t this a good deal for the Twins as they enter their competitive window?[DISCLAIMER: My punishment (okay, not actually a “punishment” per se) for writing and publishing a piece on Matt Hall the day the Bringer of Rain was signed was writing a piece opposing the signing. Mr. Donaldson, I assume you’re reading this and please know that I love you’re going to wear a Twins uniform for the next few years!] I think the easiest opposition to this, which I’ve seen on Twitter, is to say that the Twins haven’t answered their biggest need in a starting pitcher. Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron played passably at the hot corners in 2019 so bringing them back and saving the money for a frontline starter, whether it be via free agency or trade, is how $92 million should have been spent. Possibly the next easiest criticism is his age. Giving a four-year, $92 million deal to a guy entering his age-34 season is undoubtedly a risk. I think there are two parts to this theory, which is to look at the average aging curve for him as a hitter and him as a defender. In a series of articles from Jeff Zimmerman, he explored the topic of the aging hitter and found an interesting pattern: on average, hitters enter the league at their best and decline as they years go one. In other words, there is not a true aging “curve”. Download attachment: aging_curve_wrcp.jpg Using wRC+ as the measurement , Zimmerman created the above display to show the aging curve. As noted in the legend, each color represents a different era where the “06 to 13” era is the post-PED’s era and is the data that we should use to predict how Donaldson will age. In 2019, his age-33 season, Donaldson had a wRC+ of 132 and Zimmerman’s data would suggest that Donaldson would decrease in 2020 so much so that he would become a below average hitter and end his tenure as a Twin as an awful hitter. Although this much of a decline at the plate seems unlikely, I think it’s fair to think that some decline will happen each season from 2019 to 2023 and that we will likely be paying Donaldson more than he is worth in the last year or two of his contract. On the other hand, the defensive aging “curve” is a little harder to predict as defense is generally harder to measure anyway. Regardless, Jeff Zimmerman found a similar pattern when using UZR to predict future performance. Although Donaldson’s UZR numbers have been a bit sporadic, which isn’t unusual, he’s been an “above average” defender or worse by FanGraphs standards since 2016. Using the chart above, it’s likely that he will be a liability at third base for at least half of his contract. With the extension of Sano, there won’t be anywhere for Josh to go other than becoming a designated hitter. Maybe this was one factor of choosing the Twins over the Braves? The final opposition to this article is looking at the impact a $23M average annual value (AAV) salary will impact on keeping our current young studs like Berrios and Buxton, our future prospects like Lewis, Graterol, etc., and/or acquiring another impact player. Although it’s a step in the right direction, the Donaldson signing put the Twins right in the middle of the pack, in terms of payroll, at about $138M. There are currently only four teams in Major League Baseball who have more than one player who is averaging $20M or more in AAV, so it seems unlikely the Twins would join such a small group of teams. Even if we lower the AAV to $15M there are only 10 teams who have more than one player that make as much. In short, acquiring a second impact player via trade or free agency seems unlikely. If any of the players mentioned above want to test the waters of free agency then the Twins will likely lose out in a bidding war, which means they will need to sign those players to team friendly deals like they did with Polanco, Kepler, and Sano. This relies heavily on the players preference of security over money and the players becoming or remaining as big reasons for the Twins winning. As with most multi-year deals, there is some risk involved. The longer the contract and the older the player the more the risk increases. In the end, time will tell if the Josh Donaldson contract provides the value that all Twins fans are assuming it will. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  17. [DISCLAIMER: My punishment (okay, not actually a “punishment” per se) for writing and publishing a piece on Matt Hall the day the Bringer of Rain was signed was writing a piece opposing the signing. Mr. Donaldson, I assume you’re reading this and please know that I love you’re going to wear a Twins uniform for the next few years!] I think the easiest opposition to this, which I’ve seen on Twitter, is to say that the Twins haven’t answered their biggest need in a starting pitcher. Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron played passably at the hot corners in 2019 so bringing them back and saving the money for a frontline starter, whether it be via free agency or trade, is how $92 million should have been spent. Possibly the next easiest criticism is his age. Giving a four-year, $92 million deal to a guy entering his age-34 season is undoubtedly a risk. I think there are two parts to this theory, which is to look at the average aging curve for him as a hitter and him as a defender. In a series of articles from Jeff Zimmerman, he explored the topic of the aging hitter and found an interesting pattern: on average, hitters enter the league at their best and decline as they years go one. In other words, there is not a true aging “curve”. Using wRC+ as the measurement , Zimmerman created the above display to show the aging curve. As noted in the legend, each color represents a different era where the “06 to 13” era is the post-PED’s era and is the data that we should use to predict how Donaldson will age. In 2019, his age-33 season, Donaldson had a wRC+ of 132 and Zimmerman’s data would suggest that Donaldson would decrease in 2020 so much so that he would become a below average hitter and end his tenure as a Twin as an awful hitter. Although this much of a decline at the plate seems unlikely, I think it’s fair to think that some decline will happen each season from 2019 to 2023 and that we will likely be paying Donaldson more than he is worth in the last year or two of his contract. On the other hand, the defensive aging “curve” is a little harder to predict as defense is generally harder to measure anyway. Regardless, Jeff Zimmerman found a similar pattern when using UZR to predict future performance. https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman/status/675410540064210944 Although Donaldson’s UZR numbers have been a bit sporadic, which isn’t unusual, he’s been an “above average” defender or worse by FanGraphs standards since 2016. Using the chart above, it’s likely that he will be a liability at third base for at least half of his contract. With the extension of Sano, there won’t be anywhere for Josh to go other than becoming a designated hitter. Maybe this was one factor of choosing the Twins over the Braves? The final opposition to this article is looking at the impact a $23M average annual value (AAV) salary will impact on keeping our current young studs like Berrios and Buxton, our future prospects like Lewis, Graterol, etc., and/or acquiring another impact player. Although it’s a step in the right direction, the Donaldson signing put the Twins right in the middle of the pack, in terms of payroll, at about $138M. There are currently only four teams in Major League Baseball who have more than one player who is averaging $20M or more in AAV, so it seems unlikely the Twins would join such a small group of teams. Even if we lower the AAV to $15M there are only 10 teams who have more than one player that make as much. In short, acquiring a second impact player via trade or free agency seems unlikely. If any of the players mentioned above want to test the waters of free agency then the Twins will likely lose out in a bidding war, which means they will need to sign those players to team friendly deals like they did with Polanco, Kepler, and Sano. This relies heavily on the players preference of security over money and the players becoming or remaining as big reasons for the Twins winning. As with most multi-year deals, there is some risk involved. The longer the contract and the older the player the more the risk increases. In the end, time will tell if the Josh Donaldson contract provides the value that all Twins fans are assuming it will. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  18. The Minnesota Twins ended the 2019 season with a few needs that have yet to be addressed in the 2020 offseason. One of those needs was, and still is, an additional left-handed arm to come out of the bullpen. On Monday, the Detroit Tigers designated left-handed reliever Matt Hall for assignment.As of now, the Twins have just four lefties on their active roster and three of them (Rich Hill, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe) will be entering spring training looking to fight over the fourth and fifth starting spots in the rotation. This leaves Taylor Rogers as the lone lefty that is currently locked into the bullpen. This article will take a look at Matt Hall as a possible candidate to fight for a bullpen spot in 2020. The Good Matt Hall is a former sixth-round draft pick out of Missouri State who led the NCAA in strikeouts in 2015. At just 26-years-old and two years of team control plus three years of arbitration ahead of him, he still has up to five years of control at a reasonable price. The strikeout rate has carried over to his professional career as his minor league strikeout per nine (K/9) is 9.9 over 500.1 innings and is 9.2 in just 31.1 big league innings. Per Statcast, he has an great spin rate on his curveball and an above average spin rate on his fastball which are indicators that he has the stuff to be successful at the major league level. The Bad Well, he was designated for a reason. Walks have been a major issue for him dating back to his collegiate days. In his limited time in the big leagues he has a walk rate of 5.2 which is well past FanGraphs rating of “awful”, although his collegiate and minor league rate sit at 3.5 which is still considered “poor”. For reference, Trevor May, who most considered to have a very good 2019 season, had a walk rate of 3.64 so this isn’t necessarily the “be-all end-all”. Hall’s fastball tops out in the low 90’s which is not good when you have troubles hitting the zone. This will likely be a project that doesn’t make an impact right away but could be great in the future, and possibly, by the latter part of this season. With that said, much of the fan base will likely rip the move as another “cheap” alternative to a true impact arm. To be clear, the Twins would be claiming Matt Hall as a project who could become an impact arm down the road. In recent years, they have developed the likes of Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May, going from mediocre relievers to some of the best in baseball. At such a low cost, I think it really makes sense for the Twins to give Hall a shot in 2020. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  19. As of now, the Twins have just four lefties on their active roster and three of them (Rich Hill, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe) will be entering spring training looking to fight over the fourth and fifth starting spots in the rotation. This leaves Taylor Rogers as the lone lefty that is currently locked into the bullpen. This article will take a look at Matt Hall as a possible candidate to fight for a bullpen spot in 2020. The Good Matt Hall is a former sixth-round draft pick out of Missouri State who led the NCAA in strikeouts in 2015. At just 26-years-old and two years of team control plus three years of arbitration ahead of him, he still has up to five years of control at a reasonable price. The strikeout rate has carried over to his professional career as his minor league strikeout per nine (K/9) is 9.9 over 500.1 innings and is 9.2 in just 31.1 big league innings. Per Statcast, he has an great spin rate on his curveball and an above average spin rate on his fastball which are indicators that he has the stuff to be successful at the major league level. The Bad Well, he was designated for a reason. Walks have been a major issue for him dating back to his collegiate days. In his limited time in the big leagues he has a walk rate of 5.2 which is well past FanGraphs rating of “awful”, although his collegiate and minor league rate sit at 3.5 which is still considered “poor”. For reference, Trevor May, who most considered to have a very good 2019 season, had a walk rate of 3.64 so this isn’t necessarily the “be-all end-all”. Hall’s fastball tops out in the low 90’s which is not good when you have troubles hitting the zone. This will likely be a project that doesn’t make an impact right away but could be great in the future, and possibly, by the latter part of this season. With that said, much of the fan base will likely rip the move as another “cheap” alternative to a true impact arm. To be clear, the Twins would be claiming Matt Hall as a project who could become an impact arm down the road. In recent years, they have developed the likes of Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May, going from mediocre relievers to some of the best in baseball. At such a low cost, I think it really makes sense for the Twins to give Hall a shot in 2020. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  20. I do agree that distance would be a helpful tool to analyze here as well, although I think we can make a decent analysis based on HR/FB rate and FB rate as well. Obviously, launch angle/exit velo has nothing to do with a juiced ball but it does impact the travel of the ball which was my reason for mentioning the metric. If the swing is different then maybe helps explain some of the added power, but if the swing is mostly the same, then what else could it be? I know there is more than one possible answer to that question.
  21. In September, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred was quoted as saying “We need to make a change to the baseball” in an exclusive interview with Forbes. This article will look at how a “de-juiced” baseball will impact the Twins top five home run hitters from the 2019 record breaking season.If Major League Baseball does in fact “de-juice” the ball, then we can assume that nearly every player and team will see a reduction in the number of home runs hit. Specifically, this article will break down how much a “de-juiced” baseball might impact Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Garver in 2020. For being one of just 57 members in the 400 home run club, you might find it surprising that Nelson Cruz posted a career high home run per flyball rate (HR/FB) in 2019. His HR/FB rate of 31.3-percent was 10 points higher than the average rate of his career. He did this while maintaining a similar fly ball (FB) percentage that he’s had throughout his career, which would imply some home run regression in 2020. That said, his 2019 average launch angle (LA) was greater than his career average and similar to his 2018 average where he hit 37 bombas. Being the professional hitter that Nelson Cruz has been throughout his career, I wouldn’t expect too much regression in 2020. After emerging as a 2019 breakout candidate during his 2018 season, Max Kepler exploded onto the scene and quickly became one of the best all-around right fielders in the game. He has a similar story to “The Boomstick” without the track record to support an encore performance in 2020. In his last two seasons, he had almost the exact same FB percentage but he doubled his HR/FB rate last season. This could be partially explained by an increase in LA and is what should give Twins fans hope that he will see just a small regression in 2020. That said, he never had numbers like these in minors so I would expect something more like 2018 next season. Did you know that of players with 400 or more at-bats, Miguel Sano led the league in HR/FB rate? If that doesn’t scream regression, then consider this: His 36.6-percent HR/FB rate is the second highest for a single season since Fangraphs started tracking batted ball data in 2002. He maintained his career FB rate and LA, so I would expect him to see the second biggest regression of the top five. Keep in mind he missed 57 games in 2019 so he could still hit 30 plus home runs but at a less efficient clip. For all the flack Rosario has gotten for the second half of 2019 he may be the Twin to see the least amount of regression next season. Unlike the players mentioned before him, all the metrics (HR/FB rate, FB rate, EV, LA) that would indicate regression were right along his career numbers. Again, we can expect all players to see some drop but I wouldn’t expect Rosario’s to be more than whatever norm is established with a “de-juiced” ball. It’s hard to make a full judgement on Mitch Garver as he’s just finished his first full Major League season. Although he’s always been a flyball hitter, he never had anything close to a HR/FB rate of 29.0-percent in the minors. Per Brooks Baseball, Garver hit all but five home runs off of “hard pitches” in 2019 which means he could see a significant increase in off-speed pitches in 2020. Of all the candidates mentioned in this article, my money is on Garver seeing the biggest regression next year. Are you worried about a “de-juiced” baseball? How do you see it impacting the Twins or other teams around the league? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  22. If Major League Baseball does in fact “de-juice” the ball, then we can assume that nearly every player and team will see a reduction in the number of home runs hit. Specifically, this article will break down how much a “de-juiced” baseball might impact Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Garver in 2020. For being one of just 57 members in the 400 home run club, you might find it surprising that Nelson Cruz posted a career high home run per flyball rate (HR/FB) in 2019. His HR/FB rate of 31.3-percent was 10 points higher than the average rate of his career. He did this while maintaining a similar fly ball (FB) percentage that he’s had throughout his career, which would imply some home run regression in 2020. That said, his 2019 average launch angle (LA) was greater than his career average and similar to his 2018 average where he hit 37 bombas. Being the professional hitter that Nelson Cruz has been throughout his career, I wouldn’t expect too much regression in 2020. After emerging as a 2019 breakout candidate during his 2018 season, Max Kepler exploded onto the scene and quickly became one of the best all-around right fielders in the game. He has a similar story to “The Boomstick” without the track record to support an encore performance in 2020. In his last two seasons, he had almost the exact same FB percentage but he doubled his HR/FB rate last season. This could be partially explained by an increase in LA and is what should give Twins fans hope that he will see just a small regression in 2020. That said, he never had numbers like these in minors so I would expect something more like 2018 next season. Did you know that of players with 400 or more at-bats, Miguel Sano led the league in HR/FB rate? If that doesn’t scream regression, then consider this: His 36.6-percent HR/FB rate is the second highest for a single season since Fangraphs started tracking batted ball data in 2002. He maintained his career FB rate and LA, so I would expect him to see the second biggest regression of the top five. Keep in mind he missed 57 games in 2019 so he could still hit 30 plus home runs but at a less efficient clip. For all the flack Rosario has gotten for the second half of 2019 he may be the Twin to see the least amount of regression next season. Unlike the players mentioned before him, all the metrics (HR/FB rate, FB rate, EV, LA) that would indicate regression were right along his career numbers. Again, we can expect all players to see some drop but I wouldn’t expect Rosario’s to be more than whatever norm is established with a “de-juiced” ball. It’s hard to make a full judgement on Mitch Garver as he’s just finished his first full Major League season. Although he’s always been a flyball hitter, he never had anything close to a HR/FB rate of 29.0-percent in the minors. Per Brooks Baseball, Garver hit all but five home runs off of “hard pitches” in 2019 which means he could see a significant increase in off-speed pitches in 2020. Of all the candidates mentioned in this article, my money is on Garver seeing the biggest regression next year. Are you worried about a “de-juiced” baseball? How do you see it impacting the Twins or other teams around the league? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  23. I wish I could be this optimistic but I just can’t. Obviously, the 20’s will (hopefully) be better than the 00’s and 10’s. I’m of the mindset that division titles don’t move the needle too much, especially when you aren’t competitive in the playoffs. Right now, we need some of these “rose colored glasses” scenarios to unfold to become a contender. I’m short, a lot needs to fall in the right place since impact FA’s view Minnesota as the wrong place.
  24. Not a single impact move to speak of...yet. They have made some nice moves but nothing great. If they aren’t able/willing to make the crazy prices of FA then they need to be willing to meet the prices of trades via prospects. If they aren’t willing to do that, then it will take another Minneapolis Miracle for this team to compete for a title.
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