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At only $6 million in total salary plus a posting fee of $1.5 million (per Japanese language site Sanspo.com via MLB Trade Rumors), the Twins could have taken a small risk on a pitcher who could have provided a very solid return. The new regime has been known to do short, small pacts like the one Yamaguchi signed and, for once, it seems as though location and climate wouldn’t have held a potential impact free agent from signing with the Twins. Below is a small scouting report on Yamaguchi with the limited information I could find on his career in Japan.
The Basics
Yamaguchi is 32, will be 33 in July, and has 14 seasons of pro ball experience. At 6’ 2”, 198 pounds he’s on the smaller side for a pitcher and his fastball tops out in the low-90’s. Although he spent some time as a relief pitcher earlier in his career, he has transitioned back to a starter since 2015 with a lot of success.. Being a relief pitcher saved some mileage on his arm as he’s only thrown 1,093 1/3 innings in those 14 seasons. One for sure knock on him dates back to 2017 when he was suspended for injuring a hospital security guard and damaging hospital property while being intoxicated.
The Statistics
From what I could find, Japan isn’t huge on the deep analytic stats like we are here stateside. The one site I did find was very poorly translated into English, so these numbers will be pretty straightforward. Since 2015, Yamaguchi has a 3.37 ERA, 8.87 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, and a 2.65 K/BB which would be considered average by MLB’s standards, but striking out almost one batter per inning is impressive when you top out in the low-90’s. Obviously this doesn’t translate perfectly as the hitters in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) are not nearly as good as the hitters in the MLB. Nonetheless, he’s coming off of his best season where he led the NPB in WAR by a pitcher and finished fifth in WPA, according to Essence of Baseball.
Yamaguchi v. Yusei Kikuchi
Just last season Yusei Kikuchi came to the Seattle Mariners from the NPB at 27-years-old. In roughly the same amount of innings in the NPB, Kikuchi had an ERA of 2.77 but was otherwise fairly similar to Yamaguchi. Seattle gave Kikuchi a three-year, $43 million contract and will pay a posting fee between $10.275 and $18.225 million depending on if the club options are exercised.
Kikuchi really struggled in 2019 in Seattle and it’s hard to know why things didn’t translate well, but in 2019 he was far too hittable. By FanGraphs measures he was above average in throwing strikes but below average in swinging strikes and chase percentage. This is further evident by looking at his heat map on Brooks Baseball and seeing that his 92.9 mile per hour fastball with plus movement was thrown in the middle of the strike zone almost a third of the time. Again, that’s not to say that Yamaguchi will have the same struggles and, if anything, it’s encouraging that a relatively simple fix could help Kikuchi find more success in 2020.
Based on their similarities from the NPB, it was reasonable to think that Yamaguchi would be looking for a similar contract that Kikuchi got from Seattle. On the other hand, it was shocking to see how cheap he signed with the Blue Jays for, all things considered. His numbers don’t scream “Yu Darvish” or “Masahiro Tanaka” by any means, but has the potential of being solid piece in the middle of a rotation with the possibility of moving to the bullpen.
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