How the Top 5 Twins Home Run Hitters from 2019 Could Fare with a "De-Juiced" Ball

If Major League Baseball does in fact “de-juice” the ball, then we can assume that nearly every player and team will see a reduction in the number of home runs hit. Specifically, this article will break down how much a “de-juiced” baseball might impact Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Garver in 2020.

For being one of just 57 members in the 400 home run club, you might find it surprising that Nelson Cruz posted a career high home run per flyball rate (HR/FB) in 2019. His HR/FB rate of 31.3-percent was 10 points higher than the average rate of his career. He did this while maintaining a similar fly ball (FB) percentage that he’s had throughout his career, which would imply some home run regression in 2020. That said, his 2019 average launch angle (LA) was greater than his career average and similar to his 2018 average where he hit 37 bombas. Being the professional hitter that Nelson Cruz has been throughout his career, I wouldn’t expect too much regression in 2020.

After emerging as a 2019 breakout candidate during his 2018 season, Max Kepler exploded onto the scene and quickly became one of the best all-around right fielders in the game. He has a similar story to “The Boomstick” without the track record to support an encore performance in 2020. In his last two seasons, he had almost the exact same FB percentage but he doubled his HR/FB rate last season. This could be partially explained by an increase in LA and is what should give Twins fans hope that he will see just a small regression in 2020. That said, he never had numbers like these in minors so I would expect something more like 2018 next season.

Did you know that of players with 400 or more at-bats, Miguel Sano led the league in HR/FB rate? If that doesn’t scream regression, then consider this: His 36.6-percent HR/FB rate is the second highest for a single season since Fangraphs started tracking batted ball data in 2002. He maintained his career FB rate and LA, so I would expect him to see the second biggest regression of the top five. Keep in mind he missed 57 games in 2019 so he could still hit 30 plus home runs but at a less efficient clip.

For all the flack Rosario has gotten for the second half of 2019 he may be the Twin to see the least amount of regression next season. Unlike the players mentioned before him, all the metrics (HR/FB rate, FB rate, EV, LA) that would indicate regression were right along his career numbers. Again, we can expect all players to see some drop but I wouldn’t expect Rosario’s to be more than whatever norm is established with a “de-juiced” ball.

It’s hard to make a full judgement on Mitch Garver as he’s just finished his first full Major League season. Although he’s always been a flyball hitter, he never had anything close to a HR/FB rate of 29.0-percent in the minors. Per Brooks Baseball, Garver hit all but five home runs off of “hard pitches” in 2019 which means he could see a significant increase in off-speed pitches in 2020. Of all the candidates mentioned in this article, my money is on Garver seeing the biggest regression next year.

Are you worried about a “de-juiced” baseball? How do you see it impacting the Twins or other teams around the league?

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