Matthew Lenz

Derek Falvey was quoted as saying the Twins are “likely done adding big ticket contracts” this offseason, which gives us an idea of the Spring Training battles we’ll have this year. This is the second article that previews these battles with under a week until workouts begin.Earlier this week, I previewed the battle for the last rotation spot, and later this week I will look at the players competing for the last bench spot. The competition for left field is a very hard one to predict as there are many different layers to consider aside from just simply picking the best left fielder. Whether the players and fans like it or not, the service time game is always one factor while making sure guys are getting consistent at-bats is another factor. At the end of the day, we may end up seeing somewhat of a rotation or platoon in left field based on who’s hot, match ups, and the need to get some at-bats. Like the fifth starter piece, this article is not meant to make a prediction, but is to provide a quick snippet on each of the players competing for the spot. Jake Cave Of the undermentioned guys in this article, Cave has the most big league experience and has been a regular part of the active roster for the last three seasons. He’s been the primary beneficiary anytime Buxton has missed time and has found moderate success with a career OPS of .795 and 21 home runs over 481 at-bats through his first two seasons with the club. He had established himself as one of the better fourth outfielders in baseball before really struggling in 2020 and casting doubt on whether he could really sustain the production he previously had, especially with news that Major League Baseball is deadening the ball. Furthermore, he may have the least upside of the others he’s competing with. Realistically, I think Cave is better than the 2020 but worse than the 2019 versions of himself and will spend another year as a fourth outfielder with the Twins. Brent Rooker Before fracturing his forearm on Sept. 12, Rooker looked all the part of a Major League hitter through 21 plate appearances sporting a 161 wRC+ including a 390 no-doubter off of Daniel Ponce de Leon. Although a small sample size, I would think that Rooker’s early success would make him a front runner for the starting left field spot and slot in the middle third of the batting order. The Twins, likely planning for Rosario’s departure, had Rooker spend the 2019 season in left field, but he also has the experience to spell Miguel Sano at first from time-to-time which gives him an edge in the competition. They aren’t going to keep Rooker on the active roster to sit on the bench, so if he makes the team expect him to get a lot of reps in left field. All that said, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows when it comes to Rooker who has always been susceptible to strikeouts and, according to his scouting report on MLB.com, doesn’t project to be a very good defensive player. As promising as the first 21 at-bats looked, he will undoubtedly face some of the same swoons and criticism that has plagued Sano throughout his career while offering less power although does have a better knack at drawing walks. Rooker’s calling card is and likely always will be his hitting, which is why I really like having Cruz back, so it will be important he learns to adjust to Major League pitching and cut down on the strikeouts. Luis Arráez With the addition of Andrelton Simmons, Arráez all of a sudden found himself as the odd man out of a starting role as it’s expected that Jorge Polanco will slide over and be the everyday second basemen. Although he may lose some at-bats over the entire season, we will likely see Arráez in the line up on nearly a daily basis as he has previously established himself as a versatile defender which includes left field. He actually spent 161.0 innings in left field in 2019 and ended up with a UZR/150 of 3.6 per FanGraphs, and although that’s too small of a sample to project it’s worth noting that FanGraphs defines that as being “average”. Aside from currently being the most passable option in left field, ZiPS projects him to win the batting title in 2021 which also makes him the best option offensively of the group. I’d imagine that Arráez will still get most of his at bats from Polanco, Simmons, and Josh Donaldson needing rest days but he could also be a nice platoon type against righties if Rooker is the other left field option. Prospects Rooker is still technically a rookie/prospect, but being that he had already debuted in 2020 and would likely have exceeded the minimum 150 at-bats if not for breaking his forearm he was left out of this group. The Twins have Alex Kirilloff (#26 prospect in all of baseball), Trevor Larnach (#80 prospect in all of baseball), and Travis Blankenhorn (#17 Twins prospect in 2020) who are all ready for their shot at the big leagues despite the circumstances of 2020. The challenge of having any one of these guys on the roster, Rooker included, is making sure they are getting consistent playing time, as it would be wasteful to have them sitting on the bench more than once or twice a week. Kirilloff, of course, became the first player ever to make their Major League debut by starting in a playoff game. Furthermore, he is probably the long term solution to left field and expected to be a major part of the Twins organization moving forward. On top of playing either corner outfield position, he’s actually played some first base which gives the Twins some nice versatility. I think the only thing that keeps him off the opening day roster is the Twins playing the service time game, but I’d suspect that we will see him some time this season. Larnach probably isn’t quite as ready for the Big Leagues as Kiriloff as he’s only had 43 games above High-A ball back in 2019. That said, he has a lot of the same hype and expectations as Kiriloff despite being drafted two years after him. He’s in a tough spot as he’s probably behind the aforementioned players on the depth chart while also competing with Royce Lewis (#17 prospect in all of baseball) who is primarily a middle infielder, but does have some outfield experience. More to come on that ... Blankenhorn doesn’t have the tools to be an everyday outfielder but will still be competing for a roster spot as a super utility. That said, with Arráez and (probably) Rooker as utility options for the Twins I don’t see him getting at-bats he would need for the Twins. He’s still only 24-years-old and may be the Marwin Gonzalez type for the future, but he’s stuck behind the same group Larnach is. Free Agents I think most would be shocked if the Twins made any other moves outside of a relief pitcher, but there also isn’t really anyone out there outside of Jackie Bradley Jr. The Twins already have a logjam in the outfield so signing a free agent just wouldn’t make sense. Trading for a Starter One thing I’ll briefly expand upon, is the logjam the Twins currently have and the possible need of improving the rotation at some point. Happ and Shoemaker are solid adds and could provide a lot of value, but the Twins have some young, intriguing prospects mentioned in this article that could allow them to add an even better arm at the deadline. Time will tell. Who would you like to see in left field? One player specifically or a rotation of players? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Derek Falvey was quoted as saying the Twins are “likely done adding big ticket contracts” this offseason, which gives us an idea of the Spring Training battles we’ll have this year. This article will be the first in a short series previewing those spring training battles.In the coming days we will look at the battle for left field, as well as the last bench spot. But first, let’s take a look at the candidates for the last spot in the rotation. On Thursday, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson said the Twins have an offer out to veteran right hander Matt Shoemaker who, I don’t believe, would be a lock for the fifth spot if he was signed by the club. Shoemaker, who has been very good when healthy, hasn’t had a healthy season in four years so there is inherent risk in signing him that will still make for an intriguing battle between the current options on the Twins roster. If Shoemaker does sign with the club, I would make him the odds on favorite to win the job but that’s not a guarantee ... you might recall that the Twins signed Anibal Sanchez in 2018 and released him a month later after struggling through Spring Training. Wolfson stated that there were multiple teams interested in Shoemaker, so if he does decide to sign somewhere else then who will compete for that fifth spot? Randy Dobnak After a productive start to his career in 2019 and the first half of 2020, the wheels really fell off for Dobnak which led to getting sent down to the alternate site and being left off the postseason roster last year. I’ve always been a bit wary of Dobnak’s production as it seemed too good to be true, which you can read about in more detail here, and have the same concerns heading into this season. His Savant profile from 2020, seen below, is fairly concerning and moreover his most oft used pitch (fastball/sinker) was normally spotted really well in the bottom corners of the zone yet batters had a xwOBA of .342 against the pitch. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-13 at 9.02.52 PM.png All of that said, out of the undermentioned options the Twins have, Dobnak does boast the strongest track record, and the reconfiguration of the infield plays right into his strengths. You see, over the last two seasons, Dobnak has the second best ground ball percentage of all starters who have pitched 70 innings or more and would benefit greatly from the addition of Simmons and Polanco sliding over to second base. If the Twins don’t get Shoemaker, Dobnak will probably be the favorite to be the fifth starter in 2021. Lewis Thorpe Thorpe had a very rough 2020 season both personally and professionally, which was detailed by Twins Daily own Cody Pirkl back in October, and this was following a 2019 where he posted an ERA of 6.18 over 27 2/3 innings pitched. I guess you could say Thorpe has had a rough start to his 44 inning career to this point, BUT we should not forget that he is only 25-years-old and just two years ago was the Twins #11 rated prospect by Major League Baseball. Furthermore, he peaked as the Twins #9 prospect in 2014 and his scouting report read “... Thorpe could be the best to come from Down Under,” which speaks to how highly thought of he once was, but then missed 2015 and 2016 due to Tommy John surgery and contracting mono during rehab. Thorpe has A LOT to prove and will be entering the most pivotal Spring Training of his career as he is out of Minor League options, but that might actually play into his favor as the Twins would need to designate him for assignment which would allow another team to snag him. If he and Dobnak are viewed similarly by the time the season starts, you could see the Twins give him the first opportunity at the back end of the rotation as a “one last shot” situation. Thorpe is truly a wild card, but has a higher ceiling and similar floor compared to Dobank which makes me lean towards giving him the first shot in the rotation. Prospects Although long shots, it’s worth mentioning that Jordan Balazovic (#97 prospect in baseball) and Jhoan Duran (#5 Twins prospect) will also have opportunities to compete for the last rotation spot. That said, a combination of the service time game, a jumbled 2020 season, and neither having much experience above High-A tells me this is highly unlikely. That said, they have some upside and will be fun to see where they are at in their Spring Training opportunities. For Duran, I wouldn’t rule out seeing him in a reliever role at some point in 2021 if the Twins deal with some injuries. Free Agents We’ve already talked about Shoemaker and mentioned that Falvey doesn’t see the Twins adding any more “big ticket contracts.” But for fun, I would love to see Jake Odorizzi or Taijuan Walker added to the mix. Odorizzi would slot ahead of Happ (*whispers* and maybe Berrios) making him the fifth starter, while Walker would likely compete for the fifth starter job with the aforementioned names in this article. Trading for a Starter The Twins are loaded. Keith Law has them as the eighth best Minor League system in the majors and having a surplus of quality outfield prospects in the minors that may be ready for The Show. I don’t foresee a trade happening anytime soon, but the Twins have the assets to add a quality arm if one becomes available at the trade deadline. Who do you think wins the fifth rotation spot? Do you believe in Dobnak? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Four of the five AL Central teams made some moves today, including the Twins who have made an offer to a veteran starting pitcher.Twins have offer out to RHP Matt Shoemaker On Wednesday KSTP’s Darren Wolfson hinted that the Twins had an offer out to a starting pitcher and he’d reveal who on Thursday. Well, without further ado…. Shoemaker came onto the scene in 2014 with the Angels finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting to Chicago White Sox first baseman José Abreu. Aside from 2020, he’s been a pretty solid starter in the league when he’s healthy which hasn’t been the case for the last four seasons. Twins Daily own Andrew Thares took a deep dive into Shoemaker today that instills some intrigue in the veternal hurler as a possible final rotation piece. Twins claim OF Kyle Garlick; Designate LHP Brandon Waddell This is a total speculative add and there’s no guarantee his new roster spot isn’t at jeopardy as the Twins still need to make room for Alex Colomé. Check out Seth Stohs article regarding the Twins new 40-man roster member. News with ties to the Twins Former top prosect Andrew Benintendi dealt to the Royals The outfielder will join a good Royals offense and look to re-establish himself as one of baseball's up and coming stars. The former seventh overall pick had a strong start to his career but struggled in 2019 and really fell off in 2020. He still has two-years of team control but joins an up and coming team that is just waiting for some pitching to develop for the minors to start competing for the division. Cubs and Mets revisit deal involving Kris Bryant The Twins have never been formally tied to the former MVP but there’s no denying how well he fits with the club even after the Simmons signing. The Twins don’t have anyone penned in as the everyday left fielder and he could spell Josh Donaldson at third, as needed. Marwin Gonzalez signs with Red Sox The former Minnesota Twins super-utility takes a significant pay cut which was probably too be expected after two so-so seasons with the Twins and evidence showing that he benefited the most from the Astros cheating scandal. Former Royal, Billy Hamilton, back in the AL Central The speedster signed with Cleveland on a minor league contract and figures to compete for a fill-in outfielder role behind Eddie Rosario, Oscar Mercado, and Josh Naylor. Tigers add outfielder Nomar Mazara After debuting at 21-years old and finding moderate success pretty quickly, Mazara really struggled in the southside of Chicago. Still only 25-years old, the Tigers will give him an opportunity to get semi-regular at-bats in a platoon role while trying to re-establish himself as a promising young player. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

It was exactly one year ago today that the Twins agreed to trade Brusdar Graterol to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Kenta Maeda. Let's take a look back at the last season for both players to deem how each team fared in the deal.After all the drama settled, and the Red Sox were left out of the equation, the Twins and Dodgers agreed to the following deal: Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-08 at 9.18.16 PM.png Camargo (21-years old) was signed by the Dodgers as an international free agent in 2015. In 665 minor league at-bats he has a .671 OPS with a strikeout rate of almost 29%, and has played 90-percent of his innings at catcher between rookie ball and lo-A. Raley (26-years old), who was dealt to the Twins as part of the Dozier trade in 2018, sports a .833 OPS but is only slightly less prone to strikeouts at about 26-percent of the time in 1,347 at-bats climbing as high as AAA in 2019. Per the 2020 MLB prospect rankings, neither player is in the top 30 of their respective clubs rankings. Being that these two players are at different points in their careers it’s too early to say one has that one team got the better end of this part of the deal, which can be sad about the next part of the deal. The Twins received the competitive balance pick for being “one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools” in baseball in 2019, which is not to be confused with a compensation pick which is given when a free-agent-to-be rejects a qualifying offer. Beeter was the 51st ranked draftee and profiled as someone who throws hard and has “stuff” that, if it can be controlled, could make for a solid prospect moving forward. That said, his track record is shaky and he’s already had two elbow surgeries so they drafted him solely based on the potential of “fixing” him. Obviously, it’s too early to tell how this pans out and who knows who the Twins would have grabbed here. I’ll take the $10MM and be happy with how the premier part of the deal has panned out so far. The headliners of this deal were clearly Maeda and Graterol in what could essentially become a one-for-one swap if none of the aforementioned pieces amount to anything more than replacement level players. Although it’s hard to predict the overall impact this trade will have in the years to come, I think we can anoint a “winner” of the trade a year later after reflecting on the years each player and team had. Maeda Makes a Case for the Cy Young Award Maeda’s career with the Dodgers was always a little on the fritz as he would bounce back and forth between a starter and reliever despite having a preference for being a part of the rotation. Although he did well in both roles, I think 2020 showed that knowing he was going to be a starter from day one allowed him to settle in and excel on the mound. He posted career best numbers across the board as a starter and was rewarded earning 2nd place in Cy Young voting behind the unanimous selection of Shane Bieber. His Savant profile, shown below, proves that 2020 was not a total surprise to those reading more than box scores and that it isn’t far fetched for him to post similar numbers moving forward. Download attachment: Maeda Savant 16 - 20.gif Maeda provided the Twins with their first true ace dating back to when Johan Santana was with the club and accrued 2.1 fWAR which would extrapolate to about 6.3 over an entire season of work. In addition, he provided the Twins with the consistency from the top spot in the rotation that hasn’t been provided by the likes of Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios over the last few years. With three years left on baseball's most team-friendly contract, it’s almost a guarantee he will exceed the value of his contract and provide the Twins with the consistent starter they’ve been missing for over a decade. Graterol Effective but Not Dominant We knew that Graterol was a fireballer as he finished in the 100th percentile for fastball (Savant actually labels it a sinker) velocity, but we weren’t sure whether he’d stick as a starter or reliever. Like the Twins with Maeda, the Dodgers gave Graterol a solid role from day one and he was able to slide into a middle inning role rather nicely. Ultimately, he ended the year accruing 0.3 fWAR in 23.1 innings of work which would extrapolate to about 1.0 if he pitched over an entire season of work. What’s odd about Graterol is, despite being a power pitcher, he doesn’t generate many whiffs and opposing hitters quality of contact against his fastball/sinker is actually fairly solid (xwOBA of .295) compared to some of the games top relievers. That said, throwing his fastball/sinker high to get ahead in the count sets up for an effective slider low to finish off the batter, where they sport an xwOBA of 0.124. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-08 at 2.53.39 PM.png At just 22-years old and able to consistently pump triple digits, it’s crazy to think that Graterol cannot improve on his whiff and quality of contact numbers and become one of the game's best relievers. Based on his Savant profile, it may just be a matter of locating that fastball over the outer third of the plate rather than the middle third. He still has four years of team control left in an organization that has a recent history of developing or reinventing players into great relievers, and has the opportunity to make a name for himself on the baseball's biggest stage as the Dodgers appear to be contenders for years to come. And the Winner Is… In the age of the dominant bullpen, a true number one still reigns supreme. There’s a reason why Gerrit Cole and Trever Bauer have an AAV of $36MM and $34MM, respectively, while Liam Hendriks is at “just” $18MM. That’s not to say that Maeda is or will ever be on the same level of Cole and Bauer, but that IS to say that even at Graterol’s best with the Dodgers he will not reach the value of Maeda with the Twins. This is a rare deal where both sides are able to immediately benefit from the trade, but I’d take the Twins side of the trade every time. We’ll revisit this deal in three years when Maeda’s tenure as a Twin may be over and we have a better picture of what Graterol will become (he’ll still only be 25!!!), but as of right now the Twins are the winners of this trade. How do you rate the trade a year later? Hypothetically, if Graterol becomes an elite reliever, who wins the trade in your eyes? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I just mentioned this in Cody's Lineup Projection 1.0....why Astudillo over Blankenhorn on the active roster to start the season?

I wouldn't be surprised if they were done making any non-NRI moves, but I think they need a starter and 4th OF more than a reliever.

Thorpe is really the only one out of options, but they would need to pass Hamilton through waivers if they don't add him to the active roster. FWIW, he has failed to make it past waivers twice since September so, unless he's awful in Spring Training, I'm guessing he's gonna get the first crack at the front end of the bullpen. For partially the same reason, I'd venture to guess Thorpe may get the first crack at the number five rotation spot over Dobnak. In general, I tend not to believe in Dobnak so I would like to see Thorpe given an opportunity.

I don't see any reason to have Astudillo on the active roster over Blankenhorn unless it's also the service time game, which i personally don't agree with but understand it's part of the game.

The Twins have made some moves to bolster their bullpen this offseason with the additions of Ian Gibaut, Brandon Waddell, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, Shaun Anderson, and Ian Hamilton. It remains to be seen if the Twins are done but let’s take a look at how the bullpen is shaping up and the potential roles for each player.I personally do believe the Twins are done adding to the bullpen. Although I would have loved to see Sergio Romo or Tyler Clippard re-signed, their recent moves of adding Anderson and Hamilton tell me that they are okay giving a young, unproven arm the opportunity to compete for a spot at the front end of the bullpen. Remember, this is an organization that has been relying on Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Matt Wisler and Cody Stashak over the last two seasons and, as a group, accrued the second-most fWAR in baseball over that time. In the two years that Rocco Baldell and his staff have been in control, they’ve been able to get the most out of their relievers (if only we had hung onto Ryan Pressly for one more year!!), and even though Anderson and Hamilton were not the impact arms that Twins fans were clamoring for, this regime has shown that we can trust them in their decision making and usage of relatively unknown bullpen names. So with all that said, let’s take a look at who could be in the bullpen to start the season and what their role will likely be. Remember, rosters have been expanded to 26 guys and teams can carry a max of 13 pitchers on the roster, which I imagine most will do. After ruling out the five starters, that will leave us with eight relievers to the bullpen. 8. Ian Hamilton RHP This was the hardest spot to project so I was going with upside here. This will be one of the Spring Training stories to follow as I think others who will compete for the two jobs are Gibaut, Waddell, Anderson, Edwar Colina, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, and Lewis Thorpe. Smeltzer, Dobank,and Thorpe will likely be competing for the last starting job, assuming they don’t add another starter via free agency, but one thing to note is that Thorpe is out of options which may give him a slight edge over the others. The recently-acquired Hamilton has been unable to sneak through waivers without getting claimed this offseason as both the Mariners and Phillies tried to do so after adding him themselves. Despite only 12 innings of Major League experience, he’s the Twins prototype with a fastball in the high 90’s and plus slider. Unless one of the aforementioned names really show out during Spring Training, I think Hamilton is given the initial opportunity here during low leverage situations. 7. Cody Stashak RHP 6. Jorge Alcala RHP 5. Caleb Thielbar LHP This group will be in the rotation more regularly as low or medium leverage options in the sixth and seventh innings. Through 40 big league innings, Stashak has pretty even splits against right and lefty hitters and generates a lot of whiffs and poor contact with his slider, which is important as his fastball tops out at 92 and isn’t a true power pitch. I think Alcala’s 2020 is going mostly unnoticed but he was actually really good, especially against righties (.182 wOBA), posting some elite numbers. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-06 at 10.05.44 AM.png Alcala should absolutely be trusted in middle inning, medium leverage situations and might even move up the list if he sustains his elite numbers against right handed batters. Thielbar’s inspirational five-year comeback might have overshadowed how well he pitched in 2020 although we can temper expectations a bit as we can’t expect him to never give up a home run. That said, he’s one of two lefties in the pen and provides a different look as his offspeed relies more on vertical movement than horizontal movement. He’ll probably be called upon when the opposing team has a couple lefty’s coming up in the order, but can also be trusted against righties in moderation. 4. Hansel Robles RHP 3. Tyler Duffey RHP Robles was pretty bad in 2020 but was good in 2019 and has been mostly solid otherwise while also bringing moderate success in medium and high leverage situations. The Twins obviously believe that 2020 was an outlier and with great spin and whiff rates must believe his 2019 season is repeatable. An added bonus is his reverse splits, throughout his career he’s had slightly more success against lefties with a better strikeout rate and wOBA. He’ll share the set up role with Duffey but will also get some save opportunities along the way. Duffey showed that 2019 was no fluke by having an even better 2020. He’s not an overpower pitcher but getting ahead in the count and striking batters out at an elite rate. On paper his curveball and fastball aren’t great, but he generates an elite number of whiffs by throwing his looping curveball in the bottom of the zone and pinpointing his fastball on edges. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-06 at 10.35.40 AM.png Like Robles, he’ll be trusted with bridging the gap to Colome and Rogers while also earning some save opportunities himself. 2. Alex Colomé RHP 1. Taylor Rogers LHP Colomé will be a breath of fresh air as Rogers has generally struggled against righties throughout his career. He’ll bring a different look to a slider dominant bullpen as he uses a fastball and cutter to get batters. He’s not going to overpower hitters with either pitch and relies on soft contact and ground balls to get outs, which plays right into the Twins strong infield defense. Rogers wasn’t great in 2020 but we shouldn’t completely forget about the two years prior where he accrued 3.9 fWAR, good enough for fourth best among all relievers in baseball. Some of his struggles can be attributed to luck as his oBABIP was 90 points higher than his career norm and a ERA-FIP of 1.21. I would expect numbers closer to 2018-19 than 2020 but also have comfort in knowing the Twins have Colomé, Duffey, and Robles as very good fall back options. A single bad outing from a relief pitcher or bad day from a bullpen as a whole tend to be magnified and overstated, as well as skew numbers to look worse than they actually are. Per fWAR, the Twins have had the second best bullpen in all of baseball over the last two years and improved upon it this offseason. There will assuredly be bad days throughout a 162-game stretch, but overall they will once again have one of the best bullpens in baseball. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins made a trade, the starting pitcher rumor mill has started to heat up, 2021 AL Central odds and more. Come check out tonight's notebook.Lamonte Wade traded to Giants for RHP Shaun Anderson Anderson is the regime’s prototype slider heavy pitcher and has mostly been used as a reliever with the Giants. Nick Nelson breaks down the new Twins pitcher here. Starting Pitcher update Aside from adding Anderson tonight many Twins fans, including myself, think the Twins should be looking to add one more starter. All three of those names are of interest to me to fill-in as a number 3, 4, or 5 starter depending on how you rate Jose Berrios and J.A. Happ. Matthew Taylor broke down Odorizzi and Paxton here. I think Odorizzi and Paxton are a step above Walker but all three have good ceilings, while I think Paxton has the safest floor so he’d be my pick if I had a say. Bovada released Twins betting lines Second in the AL Central?! Wow. The oddsmakers must be drinking the same Kool-Aid as White Sox Nation! Trevor Bauer update The Twins are still out on the pitcher but there were a lot of conflicting reports today, and he’s still worth tracking to see how many times the Twins may have to face the Cy Young Award winner.. His agent, Rachel Luba, clarified tonight that he does not currently have a deal with the Mets after tweeting “Down to 2” earlier in the day. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Dodgers are the other team which would be good news for the Twins as both possibilities leave him in the NL. White Sox add Jonathan Lucroy via Minor League Deal More name value than productive value here ... don’t let White Sox Nation aka Bovada fool you, this is a speculative add that doesn’t push them ahead of the Twins on paper. Eddie in a Cleveland uniform Odd sight. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Eddie Rosario is no longer with Minnesota, but Twins fans will be seeing plenty of him this coming season. Notes on Rosario's new team and more in tonight's notebook.Former Twins LF, Eddie Rosario, lands in Cleveland Twins fans will get plenty of opportunity to watch Rosario play for the 2021 season as he remains in the AL Central. The free swinging lefty goes to a park that his pull hitting tendencies will benefit from. Baseball Savant estimates that Rosario would have hit an additional eight home runs over the last two seasons had all of his at-bats came at Progressive Field compared to if they had all come at Target Field. Check out this farewell when it became clear Eddie was no longer going to be a Twin. Griffey Jr. added as Senior Advisory to Rob Manfred “The Kid” will help with various areas but will specifically have “a special emphasis on baseball operations and youth baseball development, particularly on improving diversity at amateur levels”, according to Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. Despite concerns and rule changes to help the pace of play, MLB viewership has actually been on the rise for years (sources: 2018, 2019, 2020), according to Forbes, although attendance has continued to decline. Furthermore, according to a USA Today report in 2019, youth baseball participation has been increasing in recent years although numbers don’t seem to be what they were last century. I don’t know that we will ever get back to baseball truly being “America’s Pastime”, but perhaps it’s not in as bad of a state that is portrayed in the media? The world is inarguably very different now that it was last century, as we live in a fast-paced, instant gratification culture, and admittedly baseball doesn’t always provide those things. That said, data shows that baseball’s popularity is back on the rise and Griffey will undoubtedly bring a fresh perspective to an already successful Play Ball initiative as youth participation has increased by 52.8% since its inception in 2015, according to Matt Kelly of MLB.com. Twins attend Mike Foltynewicz throwing session Foltynewicz had a very good 2018 campaign before being sidelined for part of 2019 with elbow discomfort and never returning to his 2018 form when he got healthy. At his best, he is the current regime’s prototype slider pitcher so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Twins try to add Foltynewicz on a MiLB deal. Cleveland re-sign MIF Cesar Hernandez Hernandez, who joined the Indians last offseason, has been a solid ~2.0 WAR player for the last three seasons. Last year in particular he slashed .283/.355/.408 with a WRC+ of 110 while also playing very good second base. At $5MM this makes him the third highest paid player on the roster until they inevitably deal Jose Ramirez, who still has one-year and two club options remaining on his contract at an AAV of $11.67MM. Cubs sign Joc Pederson Although never tied to the Twins, Pederson could have been a solid fit for the Twins as Twins Daily’s own, Cody Pirkl, points out St. Louis Cardinals: Wainwright re-signs, Molina expected to; adding Arenado? The two Cardinal mainstays have signed up for what will likely be one last go around while the club is also looking to add third basemen Nolan Arenado. The NL Central is wide open right as the Cubs and Pirates are selling and the Reds and Brewers have been quiet this offseason. Tigers nab another former Twins player Wilson Ramos made his Major League debut in 2010 while Gardy was managing the Twins to his last postseason with the club. Of course, then this happened. The former number two Twins prospect, per Baseball America, has gone on to have a solid, yet mostly underwhelming career as almost half of his career fWAR came from just two seasons. JT Realmuto officially back with the Phils Arguably the best backstop in the league is going back to Philly for the next three years. This comes two months after it was leaked that the Phillies lost $145MM during 2020 and that might impact their spending this offseason despite giving Bryce Harper the largest contract in baseball history just two years ago. Daniel Murphy retires The 2015 NLCS MVP is hanging up his cleats after an impressive career that included a runner-up MVP season, three all-star seasons, and two silver slugger awards. Last but assuredly not least, don’t miss out on your chance to get a Winter Meltdown pint glass while also supporting the community! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

There were a plethora of updates on players that could help fill some gaps in the Twins roster, but first, we remember Hammerin’ Hank Aaron.Hank Aaron passes away at 86 Hank Aaron, most well known for hitting the 2nd most homeruns in MLB history, obviously has a plethora of other records and achievements throughout his 23-year-career. He is a member of the 3,000 hit club, won the MVP and World Series in 1957 and received at least one MVP vote in 19 of 23 seasons while also earning Rookie of the Year votes in 1954. He was a 25-time all-star, a two time batting champion, a three time gold glove winner, and was enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1982. To top it off the Hank Aaron Award, given to the top offensive performer in each league, was established in 1999. He continued to have an impact on baseball and the Atlanta Braves organization as he served as an assistant to the Braves president. Here are some reactions from around the Twins Daily community: The Twins “are not finished this off season The Twins remained quiet today but there were a fair amount of moves and updates on players that would fill some of their neeeds. Starting Pitching Updates The Twins were reported as being believed to be in the mix for Trevor Bauer by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That lasted about a half hour. He provided an update that noted the Twins are not in the mix for Bauer. It was fun while it lasted. I think the Twins need to add another arm that’s on the same level or better as Odorizzi, including Jake Odorizzi himself. I like the J.A. Happ addition as a #4 in the rotation but that still leaves us giving the ball to an unproven pitcher every fifth day. Our own Parker Hageman did a nice job of instilling some optimism after the Happ signing, meanwhile other TD writers were going back and forth on the matter. My take is simple: if Happ ends up being anything more than our fourth-best starter then I think that means something went wrong with one or more of Kenta Maeda, Michael Pineda, or Jose Berrios and it won’t matter how good of a season Happ had. Arrieta isn’t an arm I would qualify as “same level or better as Odorizzi” or anywhere near that level. Like Doogie suggests, they’re doing their homework on the former Cy Young winner which is a good thing. That said, I don’t think this will lead to anything and would prefer one of our unproven arms over Arrieta who has proven to be on the downturn of his career. Relief Pitcher Updates Anthony Bass signs with Miami Marlins Bass gets a two-year $5MM guarantee plus extras with a third year team option, per Jon Heyman, and will likely fill-in at the back end of the bullpen. The details on the extras, team option, and buyout have yet to be released. Recently, I wrote an article on why the Twins shouldn’t spend up for relief pitchers much to the dismay of many fans despite the mathematical and historical evidence that supports the opinion. Twins Daily’s own Cody Pirkl Although Bass is not the Twins prototype pitcher, relying on his sinker to induce ground balls, he’s been a solid middle innings relief arm for the last three years and does use a slider as his second pitch. At just $2.5AAV and a team option, I’m really not sure how they can pass up on someone who would fill-in nicely as a 6th - 8th inning guy and could close if needed. In short, the Twins missed an opportunity to add a value arm here. DH Updates Our own Matthew Taylor dove into Ozuna v. Nelson Cruz in his “Free Agent Faceoff” series, and provides good cases for and against both players. I don’t want to spoil anything other than to say that I agree with Mr. Taylor, so go ahead and take a look for yourself! SS/Utility Updates The aforementioned Taylor also compared Hernandez and Tommy La Stella in his series. I’ll let you look at his take on Kike. Here are my thoughts on Profar...he had a solid year in 2020, specifically the second half of the shortened season, but his Baseball Savant profile suggests the second half might be the exception and not the norm: Download attachment: profar.png Profar’s name had been kicked around on Twins Daily, but I never saw a report saying that Twins had shown interest themselves. I’d assume they had done their homework, but I have to imagine that asking for multiple player options would be a huge turn off. I think this is a deal that the Padres will ultimately regret despite his Marwin Gonzalez-esque versatility. I talked about Simmons in yesterday’s Notebook after the news yesterday that the Reds are also kicking the tires on him. Maybe the Twins will show interest as Profar and Hernandez are now off the board. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins were quiet today but Kris Bryant made headlines while the Astros were busy for the second consecutive day signing a former Twin.Former Minnesota Twins catcher, Jason Castro, back in Houston This gives the Astros a possible platoon option with Martin Maldando as both hitters have traditional splits against lefty and righty pitchers. Castro is coming off of his worst offensive season since 2013 with .179/.233/.375 splits in 92 at-bats over 27 games played. Per Baseball Prospectus Catching Leaders, Castro is going to be a huge improvement defensively over any of their catching options, Maldanado included, from the 2020 season. Kris Bryant: “... is this even fun anymore?” On an episode of Barstool Sports podcast “Red Line Radio” that was released today, Bryant rhetorically questioned if he was having fun playing baseball anymore. The former MVP is coming off of his worst season as a pro and enters the final year of his contract amid another offseason of trade rumors. The Cubs seem to be in sell mode after unloading Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres and the Twins would be an ideal fit for the three-time all star who could theoretically play any of the four corner infield or outfield spots. Blue Jays designate Anthony Castro Castro signed as an international free agent in 2012 with the Detroit Tigers, has just one Major League inning under his belt, and is only 25-years-old. The righty has had moderate success in the Minors as a high strikeout rate but has issues with his control as that’s coupled with a very high walk rate. In his “Top 39 Prospects: Blue Jays” analysis, Eric Longenhagen scouting report reads “his heater has natural cut; his slider lacks depth”. It’s that last part that might pique my interest for the Twins. We have a franchise that loves pitcher development and sliders ... doesn’t Castro fit the bill? And at only 25-years-old with room on the roster, he could make for an interesting project. Reds are interested in Andrelton Simmons The free agent shortstop hasn’t been tied to the Twins but the Twins have been tied to needing a shortstop or utility infielder. Simmons is arguably the best shortstop available on the market and, if the Twins were to be interested, it appears they would have added competition in the Reds. If you are overly concerned with Polanco’s defense, then Simmons is right up your alley as one of baseball’s best defensive shortstops. Tim Anderson to star on the cover of RBI 21 MLB announced that Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson would be the cover player for RBI 2021. This is now the seventh year this game has been released since its reboot in 2015, and Anderson is the second American League Central shortstop to be featured after Francisco Lindor donned the cover in 2018. Anderson has inarguably been charismatic and productive in his last three Major League seasons, but how do you snub Fernando Tatis Jr or one of the players from baseball's most trending team? Just another gaff for a marketing department that struggles in advertising the games most polarizing stars. Calm down, @ChiSoxFanMike, this is less of a shot at Anderson and more of a recognition of the coast-to-coash star that Tatis Jr has become. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Liam Hendriks is off the board and it appears Brad Hand may sign shortly, but history tells us avoiding the top of the bullpen market will likely be a wise decision by the Twins.At around the same time that Twins fans heard the Hendriks news, MLB Network was releasing their #Top10RightNow relievers which featured him at the top of the list: Naturally, many were concerned with the White Sox bolstering their already solid bullpen and many more were wondering if the Twins would sign Brad Hand, who recently said he would love to play for his hometown team. When I saw this list, the question I posed was what did this look like two years ago ... suggesting that it probably looked very different from the current list. The only names on both lists are Aroldis Chapman and Josh Hader. Want to know what last year's list looked like? See for yourself. Once again, Chapman and Hader are the only two names that are on even two of the three lists, and we now have two decades worth of data in this new era of power pitching bullpens that shows this type of fluctuation in the games top relievers is the norm rather than the exception. Quite literally when reviewing league wide relief pitcher data on Fangraphs you can see that what we now know as the modern day bullpen started forming right around 2000. The last 21 seasons are all in the top 21 of relief innings pitched and 18 of the 21 are in the top 21 of K/9, while the other three are still in the top 26. (Sidenote: the 1875 season is 21st on the list at 7.19 K/9 over just 41.1 innings pitched...bizarre outlier) What has the lifespan of an “elite reliever” looked like over the last 20 years? Although not the end-all and be-all indicator, I used fWAR as my measure while limiting the search to pitchers who had a season where they pitched at least 50 innings so my research wasn’t influenced by guys who didn’t put in a full season of work. This obviously eliminated 2020 from the data set which I think is actually pretty fair given the unique set of circumstances compared to every other season. I then found the standardized score of each player's fWAR and found that the data fit a bell-shaped distribution and was close to being “normal”. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-01-12 at 10.55.41 PM.png Using the standard normal table, I defined an elite reliever as someone who finished in the top three-percent of the data set which equated to 1.88 standard deviations above the mean. There are 147 individual seasons and 78 unique pitchers who accomplished this feat, which is evidence in itself that a reliever lifespan as “elite” doesn’t last more than a season or two in a vast majority of cases. Furthermore, it was infrequent that a pitcher even appeared on the list as many as four times. Mariano Rivera (7) -- who we knew would be an outlier on this list -- Kenley Jansen (4), Jonathan Papelbon (4), Joe Nathan (4), Craig Kimbrel (4) and Aroldis Chapman (4) are the only pitchers who appear on the list more than three times, and they account for about 18.4% of the total list. A handful of pitchers accomplished the feat three times of which the most notable might be Eric Gagne who accumulated 83.6% of his career fWAR in those three seasons. He has since admitted to steroid use during his run which could explain his massive three-year peak in an otherwise uninspiring career, but is nonetheless another case of an elite reliever falling off after a few short years. So let's bring this back to the two elite free agent relievers entering the 2021offseason that Twins fans were clamoring for. Per fWAR, Liam Hendriks 2019 season was the second best relief season of the century behind the aforementioned Gagne’s 2003 which we now know was partially thanks to steroids, and he was the best pitcher in 2020 accruing the same fWAR (1.4) as Brewers reliever Devin Williams. If the data above tells us anything it’s that Hendriks, who will be 32 by season's start, will likely be overpaid and no longer elite for at least half of his contract with the White Sox. Both parties definitely benefit from the shortened 2020 season as he saved 50-60 innings on his arm, but on top of history being against him he is also on the older end of when the list of relievers above peaked in their careers. And remember, a vast majority of the pitchers in the data set only appeared once or twice. The former Twin might be a “Twin Killer” in 2021, possibly 2022, but 2023 and 2024 (there is a team option) is a crapshoot that the White Sox went all-in on. On the other hand, heh, Minnesota native Brad Hand hasn’t truly had an elite season in his career. His best season in 2017, where he accrued 1.7 fWAR, would rank as the 259th best season of the century although he had a solid year last year where he finished as the fifth-best reliever in baseball. In 2020, he was on pace for what would likely have been an “elite” season, but if you’ve gathered anything from this article so far it’s that relievers are nearly impossible to predict. Hand is about a year younger than Hendriks and doesn’t have the same umph behind his fastball that some of the names listed above have, which are both factors that could make his lifespan as a top, if not elite, reliever a little longer. The real issues with these two, and other “elite” relievers, isn’t necessarily the unpredictable production that their teams will get out of them, but it’s their cost that has me saying “no, thanks”. Even if Liam Hendriks isn’t an elite closer in a couple years, he’ll likely be serviceable as a 7th/8th inning type, but the problem lies in paying a 7th/8th inning type $15.4MM per year. MLB Trade Rumors has Hand signing for two-years, $14MM which actually wouldn’t be a bad deal, a short term deal paying $7MM AAV for a top end reliever is practically a steal. That said, they also had Hendriks signing for three-years, $30MM and he ended up getting an extra year, although it’s a team option, plus an extra $5.4MM AAV and these two factors will surely drive up Hand’s cost. I’d be willing to give Hand two-years, maybe three if it’s a team option, but no more than $9MM based on the volatility at his position. Let me end with a mea culpa, especially directed towards fellow Twins Daily-er Nick Nelson. You see, I was a BIG Craig Kimbrel bobo, as a certain Twins Cities sports radio station might say, and went back and forth with Nick quite a bit on the topic. Even with damning evidence that Kimbrel was toast, I wanted the Twins to DO SOMETHING ... ANYTHING ... but specifically throw money at Kimbrel. I’m sorry, Nick. The data presented in this article, and Kimbrel’s production since 2019, has shown me the light. We shouldn’t be mad about “losing out” on [insert top reliever here]. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

T’was the night before christmas, when all through stands Not a creature was stirring, not even the fans. The Target Field bars and concessions were bare, With hopes in twenty-one, we all could be there.Twins Territory nestled in and pulled up Twins Daily, While making their list to replace Homer Bailey. And fans in the comments said give Bauer a cap, While wondering if Odo would get another lap. When up in the office, there arose different clatters, They also had needs for some new Bomba batters. Away to free agency Rosie flew like a flash, Now open the checkbook to give Nelly some cash. No need to fly like new-fallen snow, Now prospects can drive across I-ninety fo’. When, what to fans wandering minds became clear, They had a new affiliate for which they could cheer. Jeffers and Rooker got to the majors so quick, We knew in a moment they would definitely stick. Just as rapid as the season, players come and they go, But none were more surprising than Fernando Romero. Thank you Rosie and Marwin! Thank you Romo and Adrianza! Bring on Kirilloff or Larnach, Or even Marcell Ozuna. However you choose to take in the call, Cheer away, cheer away, cheer away all! Here's the 2019 version for those of you interested. Happy Holiday's everyone! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article