Matthew Lenz

The Twins best pitcher is 32...

In my last article, I analyzed José Berríos’ trade value using recent trades for what impact starters netted their former clubs. Now, I will look at a few teams that might look to bolster their rotation before or at the deadline and specific players the Twins could target. The last article generated some good discourse on this topic and really showed that fans really are split on this topic. Some are wondering if it’s a panic move based on two months of data while others are wondering who would replace Berríos in the rotation if he were traded? In Matthew Taylor’s article, which was the inspiration for my articles on this topic, he is of the ilk that the last two months show the Twins aren’t in that window to compete for a World Series this year or next. He doesn’t believe a complete rebuild is necessary, as the Twins boast one of the best farm systems in baseball, and thinks the window is just shifted to 2023 and beyond. On the other hand, I’ve just lost the faith in Berríos to take that next step to be a frontline starter but, with one-and-a-half years of team control remaining and being on the younger side, I think a team would “pay up” for that potential that many Twins fans thinks he still has. If the Twins were to hold him and look to sign an extension, I’d want it to be no more than $15MM AAV over a two or three years but even the top end of that feels too rich for me. If we were to move on from Berríos this year and think that we will compete in 2022, then there are about a dozen free agents options that I think would sufficiently replace him but that sounds like an article for another day. I think one thing that we need to be reminded of is that this informal series that Matthew and I have created wasn’t just a spur of the moment, “panic” decision. To be fair, this sounds more like speculation than an actual report but it comes from a legitimate journalist who’s been tied to Major League Baseball since the early 2000’s. Even if it’s speculation, he’s been through enough seasons and trade deadlines to have an idea on how the trade market could come together in the coming months. In particular, he mentioned the Blue Jays as a potential suitor but I also think the Braves and Yankees are two other teams who have the offense for a postseason run while needing some rotation help, and have the farm system necessary to add an impact starter. Looking at the Twins farm system and young talent already in the Majors, I think the biggest needs for the Twins would be a pitching prospect, ideally left-handed, and/or a prospect who could play third base who can help within the next couple of seasons. Theoretically, the Twins could probably piece together a second base/shortstop/third base puzzle that included Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, Royce Lewis, and even Keoni Cavaco over the next few seasons but they really don’t have a true third base prospect in their system. Based on my previous article, I don’t think the Twins will net a top-100 prospect for Berríos alone and would likely need to add another piece to sweeten the deal whether that be cash, a rent-a-reliever (i.e. Hansel Robles or Alex Colomé), or a position player (i.e. Kepler with the emergence of Larnach and Kirilloff). Without further ado, here are the players I would be targeting a Berríos deal. Toronto Blue Jays (24-23, 4th in AL East, 39.3% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs) The Jays farm system is stacked and they have one of the best offenses in baseball that needs to be supplemented with some pitching help in both their rotation and bullpen. If I were to put together a deal involving Berríos and one of our rent-a-relievers, I would be targeting the following: Simeon Woods-Richardson - RHP prospect known more for his command of the zone than being a power pitcher Jordan Groshans - a SS/3B prospect with a good bat who needs another season or two in the minors Alek Manoah - RHP prospect with a big arm that needs to improve control I’m more interested in the top two than Manoah and, of course, he’s coming off a fantastic MLB debut. They might be pressed to move on from Groshans as they don’t have any other future options at third with Vladimir Guerror Jr moving to 1st but, if the Twins are sellers, they’ll have the assets to net him and Woods-Richardson. Atlanta Braves (24-25, 2nd in the NL East, 36.1% chance to make the playoffs) Like the Blue Jays, the Braves have the offense to contend but really need help in their rotation and bullpen making them a good match if the Twins are sellers. Moreover, they have one of the better farm systems in baseball making it plausible they’d be willing to move things around to make a push in the second half of the season. I would target the following: Braden Shewmake - 2B/SS prospect projects as a good contact hitter with good speed and a good glove, but not great skills. Tucker Davidson - LHP prospect who projects to be good, not great, with a plus fastball but needs to work on improving his offspeed. Kyle Muller - hard throwing LHP prospect with plus pitches but struggles with control which will likely be a deciding factor in how his career plays out. As I mentioned earlier, the Twins are chalked full with young middle infield options but when Shewmake was drafted (2019, 1st round) some thought his long-term outlook was at 3rd base, although he’s played exclusively at short in the Braves system. Of the two lefties, which is a need for the Twins, Muller has the higher ceiling while Davidson has the higher floor and has also made two appearances for the Braves over the last two seasons. New York Yankees (28-20, 1st in the AL East, 87.0% chance to make the playoffs) The Yankees starting rotation has been better than most would have thought but just lost Corey Kluber for at least two months to a shoulder injury, and I don’t think they have the reinforcements that can be relied on in 2021. I would target the following: Luis Medina - hard throwing RHP prospect who really needs to work on control. Probably needs at least one or two more seasons in the minors. I didn’t even mention higher ranked RHP prospects like Clarke Schmidt who has already had Tommy John surgery and multiple issues with his elbow, Luis Gil or Deivi Garcia who don’t move the needle for me. On the other hand, Medina would be an intriguing project that has the potential to be better than Berríos but also has the floor where he’s a non-factor. Outside of Jasson “the next Mike Trout” Dominguez, they don’t have the farm system to acquire a big-time arm (i.e. Max Scherzer) midseason, so a mid level starter like Berríos is probably more realistic. I wouldn’t be overly concerned with our lack of 3rd base prospects and would be targeting pitchers as the headliner in a trade involving Berríos, as you can never have enough pitching. Furthermore, I think finding a team like the Blue Jays or Braves that need help in the rotation and bullpen could really help a better prospect by creating a bigger package of immediate contributors to potential playoff teams. What are your thoughts on some of the names in this article? There are undoubtedly more teams that would be interested in Berríos...do you have a certain team or prospect in mind you’d like to see the Twins acquire? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Matthew Taylor's article was definitely of the tune that 2021 is lost and he doesn't see us as a contender in 2022 with how this team is playing and is structured, and he even drew comparisons to the 2011 Twins team. For me, I just don't believe in Berrios and haven't since the 2nd half of 2019 when he had a stellar first half and it looked like he had taken that next step, but then reverted back to the pitcher he was before and has been since in the 2nd half. In regards to your other post, I admit that I am thinking Berrios wants to be paid like a frontend guy despite their not being any proof of that, but I base that off of his deleted tweet from 2019 and this 2018 article when he switched representation. I'm not blaming Berrios for wanting to get paid...that'd be asinine, but I am saying that I don't want to pay him anything more than mayyyybe $15MM AAV over 2-3 years. If he agrees to that then great, but I don't know why he wouldn't test the market at this point. Who replaces him in 2022 if we think the Twins are contenders? There are about a dozen pending free agents for 2022 that I'd rather have over the same timeframe.

In his career he's right around 50/50 which is admittedly better than I would have thought, but over the last two years 64% of his starts have been less than 6 innings. His career strike% and BB% are both below average. He has great "stuff" but what limits his ceiling is his inability to consistently locate it.

Watching Berrios inefficiently pitch less than six innings through most starts gives me more of a headache than making sure I get value out of Berrios if he is going to walk anyway does.

I know this is your own opinion/speculation but I strongly disagree that he is "deflated on this team". If that were to be the case, he would be hurting his own cause as teams are going to pay him less based on his previous statistics. Further, if there was evidence of those that is going to limit his market as some teams (I hope the Twins included) would stay away from a guy that doesn't put his best foot forward.

A little preview into my next article, but I would want them to go after a young pitcher who is close to ready to contribute at the ML level.

If the Twins are out of the race (I think the next week and a half will be very telling), then who cares who replaces him? It seems like he wants to be paid more than he is actually worth and if he is going to walk next year, you might as well get something for him in return. Pineda has been our best pitcher by nearly every metric except for IP and K/9. I'd like to see Dobnak and Thorpe given some run in the rotation to see what they're long term outlook is. Can they be successful enough to be backend rotation pieces, are they better suited for the bullpen, or are they not consistent enough to really be impactful MLB caliber pitchers. We've seen both do well and both struggle in small sample sizes. Balzovic, Duran, and Caterino can all compete for a spot next year and the Twins will likely need to add via FA as they will lose Shoemaker and Happ.

Recently, our own Matthew Taylor wrote the time to trade José Berríos is right now. I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment and, in this article, will try to get an idea what a return could look like for the 26-year-old former top-100 prospect. I will let you read Matthew’s article in full as he does a tremendous job of explaining why now is the time, but will add that I’ve been ready to move on simply due to his lack of development. Berríos has been the same pitcher since his first full season in 2017 where he’ll give you 5-6 strikeouts, 2-3 walks, and an ERA/FIP in the high 3’s, but he’ll have those couple performances that’ll leave you thinking he can be an “ace” in this league. In short, he hasn’t shown consistent effectiveness or efficiency to prove he can become an “ace” and, although exact details have never been leaked, he wants to get paid more than the Twins are willing to pay him. In my opinion, Berríos is a middle of the rotation arm (low-2/high-3) who likely wants to be paid like a frontline guy which I don't think they should do. This brings me back to Matthew’s article where he went on to say “Berríos possesses the talent and the years of control that should bring back a top-100 prospect (and then some) in return.” Inarguably, there is still some upside to Berríos, some people will quickly remind you that Scherzer took time to become Scherzer, and his durability cannot be understated, but can he really net a “top-100 prospect and then some”? Let's take a look. I went back to the last few seasons to find trades that involved starting pitchers who had the potential to make an immediate impact to a big league club. Before diving in, understand that no situation is going to be the same as contracts and years of team control can obviously vary, teams have been financially impacted by COVID-19, and the current CBA expires in December. All that said, it’s not completely apples and oranges to look at previous trades and I’d think teams would use that to help establish the market for Berríos. Padres acquire RHP Mike Clevinger, OF Greg Allen and a PTBN from the Indians for C Austin Hedges, 1B/OF Josh Naylor, RHP Cal Quantrill, SS Gabriel Arias, IF Owen Miller and LHP Joey Cantillo Clevinger has had a much better, yet shorter, career compared to Berríos while also having an extra year of team control at the time of this trade, but on the flipside he’s also three-and-a-half years older than José. Even considering the age difference and now knowing that Clevinger is out with Tommy John surgery, I think most would take Clevinger over Berríos in a heartbeat. This deal included two young, MLB ready guys in Naylor and Quantrill but none of Arias, Miller, and Cantillo were or are currently top-100 guys, although Quantrill was as high as #38 back in 2017. Astros acquire SP Zack Greinke and $25MM from D-backs for Seth Beer, J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, and Josh Rojas Age is a big difference here, but the Astros were acquiring a former Cy Young and gold glove winner, bonafide ace, who still had two-and-a-half years left on his contract and received about a third of his remaining salary from the Diamondbacks. At the time of the deal, Seth Beer was the only top-100 prospect (coming in at #96) and entering the 2021 season none of the prospects the Diamondbacks received are ranked in the top-100 although three of the four are currently in the organizations top-30 prospects. Marlins trade SP Trevor Richards and RP Nick Anderson to Rays for opener Ryne Stanek and OF prospect Jesús Sánchez I almost view this trade as Richards for Sánchez as Anderson and Stanek were pretty equal, although comparing the two relievers minor league track record shows that Anderson maybe has the higher upside. Anyway, at the time of this trade, Richards had 45 starts under his belt, looked to be less talented than Berríos, but still had five plus years of team control before becoming a free agent. By giving up the two better players in the deal, the Marlins received the 51st best prospect in all of baseball in Sánchez but is currently unranked after batting .040 in 25 big league at-bats in 2020. Marlins trade SP Zac Gallen to D-backs for SS prospect Jazz Chisholm At the time of this deal, Gallen was emerging as a promising young arm for the Marlins sporting an ERA under 3 and a K/9 north of 10 and on the previous day had limited the bomba squad to one homerun over seven innings while striking out eight. He still had six plus years of team control and In return the Marlins received the 54th best prospect in baseball in Chisholm whose time clock hadn’t yet started as he had only reached AA. Now, Chisholm is competing for the NL Rookie of the Year with an OPS of .817 and wRC+ of 127. Mets trade SP Marcus Stroman and $1.55MM in cash to Blue Jays for Minor League pitchers Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson At the time of the deal, Stroman was having the best year of his career and was in the some spot as Berríos having one plus year of team control left before being a restricted free agent. Comparatively, Berríos and Stroman have had similar careers although Stroman strikes out and walks less batters while also being less susceptible to the long ball. In return, the Blue Jays received two prospects who were outside of the top-100 at the time of the deal, but to this point Woods-Richardson is the 74th ranked prospect in baseball while Kay has struggled in his first 52.2 big league innings. A’s acquire LHP Mike Minor from the Rangers for Dustin Harris, Marcus Smith, and $133K of international slot bonus money Stick with me here...I promise I’m not trolling the Berríos stan’s with this one… By age and contract, Mike Minor (32) and Jose Berríos are not super comparable BUT (here’s the kicker, for me) statistically they have been nearly the same pitcher throughout their careers and, moreover, ZiPS projects in two years Berríos will still basically be Mike Minor. Minor Career (thru 08/31/2020) Berríos 3.98 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 Career: 4.05 FIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 ZiPs 2023: 3.97 FIP, 9.22 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 Minor, who was just a one month rental for the A’s, had a pretty poor 2020 which obviously hurt his trade value and thus didn’t even net two players that are ranked in the Rangers Top 30, let alone Major League Baseball’s Top-100. Moreover, the $133K in international slot bonus money obviously helps but doesn’t move the needle a ton either. Undoubtedly, a deal involving Berríos will net more than this but I thought it was interesting to see how similar these two pitchers are, and I think it really just proves Matthew Taylor’s original claim that we need to trade Berríos now. That said, after analyzing recent trades I don’t think I can confidently predict the Twins “should bring back a top-100 prospect (and then some) in return” just for Berríos. In the deals that netted a top-100 prospect there was more at play than simply getting a young-ish pitcher with a year plus of team control left: Greinke is far superior to Berríos yet still only netted the #96 prospect in baseball, among other pieces. Marlins sent high-ceiling reliever Nick Anderson to sweeten the deal for the Rays. Gallen was much younger, had many more years of team control remaining, and had pitched almost as well through his first seven starts as Berríos ever has in any seven start stretch of his career. Two years after the deal was completed, the Blue Jays can claim they received a top-100 prospect from the Mets. Especially with the unknown of the next CBA and the 2022 season, I think it’s realistic to think the Twins are going to need to add at least one additional sem-impactful piece (hmm...maybe a rent-a-reliever???) to a deal with Berríos to net a top-100 prospect. Next week, I will look into the teams that may be interested in a Berríos deal and some prospects the Twins could receive in return. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Almost exactly what he's given us aside the from the worst start of his career.

Whether we give Shoemaker another 2 weeks or so will have 0 impact on "the kids". The guy hasn't pitched in three years and has kept us in the game for all but two of his starts. What more can you ask out of your #5 guy?

On Friday, Twins right-hander Matt Shoemaker made his seventh start with the club. Allowing five earned runs doesn’t look attractive in the box score, but I’d argue that Shoemaker has met expectations to this point in the season. Admittedly, Shoemaker hasn’t had a great start to his Twins tenure posting a 1.43 WHIP and 6.00 ERA in 30 innings pitched. Especially after the worst outing of his career against Kansas City two weeks ago, Twins Twitter seemed ready to move on from the oft-injured veteran which I think was a little misguided. You see, in the four starts prior to facing the Royals, Shoemaker had a “good” start, “poor” start, “awful” start, and an “above average” start using FanGraphs Game Score Version 2 metric. Keeping in mind that Shoemaker was brought in as a low-risk/high-reward option who had pitched 88 1/3 innings over the last three seasons, I don’t know what more Twins fans would expect specifically this early in the season. In 2019, it took a superior pitcher in Michael Pineda two full months to really get back to full strength after an extended absence because of Tommy John surgery so why wouldn’t we give Shoemaker similar grace? Okay, I know the answer to that. Entering that atrocious outing, the Twins had just finished the first month of their season with a 9-15 record ... the inverse of what most would have expected. Many fans, myself included, figured a turn of the calendar would be a good opportunity to turn the tide of the season and get back on track. Then eight earned runs (nine total) in 3 1/3 innings pitched happened, and we realized it wasn’t going to be as easy to figuratively “turn the page” from the first month of the season. So, naturally, recency bias sets in and all of a sudden Twins twitter is narrowed in on the number five starter, with a respectable career ERA of 3.91 (for reference Berríos’ is 4.15), as the primary target for a pink slip in his locker to start cleaning things up. Yet, for me and setting aside one lonesome start, Shoemaker has mostly met expectations, and furthermore here’s the other issue I had then and still have: Who is going to replace him and automatically be better? Simply put, nobody. Moreover, the Twins fifth spot in the rotation is pretty far down the list of things I would attribute their 12-23 record to. All that said, Shoemaker could be a valuable asset moving forward whether it’s as a starter helping a team climb back into the playoff race or as a trade chip on one of the most disappointing Twins teams ever. Although it hasn’t been “the rest of the month”, he’s now had two starts since May 1st and has given the Twins mixed results, although his box score against Oakland is a little misleading. Albeit we’re talking about the Tigers, he looked effective although inefficient in his start following the Royals and was taken out after just 86 pitches, which made sense given that the 3-4-5 hitters were due up for the Tigers. On Friday, facing one of the best homerun hitting teams in the league, he made three mistakes and the A’s made him pay, scoring all five runs off the long ball. Regardless, he gave the Twins six innings for the second time this year which is one more time than Maeda and only one less than Berríos. You see what I’m setting up here? If you were disappointed in Shoemakers season as a whole, I think your disappointment needs to be redirected elsewhere. If I hadn’t made it clear yet, to this point Shoemaker has met the admittedly low bar I set for him when he signed with the club. I truly believe that if he can continue giving us competitive starts, one way or another, he could become a valuable asset come the end of July. What are your early thoughts on Shoemaker? Are you ready to move on? If so, who takes his spot? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Twins catching prospect, Ben Rortvedt, made his Major League debut on Friday, April 30 against the Kansas City Royals going 1-for-3 with a single, RBI, walk, and strikeout. Let’s take a look back at his rise to the Majors in his prospect retrospective.Prep Career The Wisconsin native (ugh ) was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the second round of the 2016 Major League Draft as the 56th overall selection out of Verona Area High School. The left handed hitting catcher had already signed a letter of intent to play for the University of Arkansas but, according to an article published in The Verona Press, Rortvedt told a Twins scout that he “wanted to play for the [club]” and was selected three picks later. The most recent Prep Baseball Report prior to being drafted had him as the 22nd prospect in the PBR Draft 100 and went to to say that his “offense separates himself from the rest of the catchers in the draft ... projects as a middle of the order hitter with power to all fields”, and defensively he “possessed plus arm strength” and an “agile” blocker. Professional Career The catcher spent four seasons in the minors spanning five different levels, as well as being invited to play in the Arizona Fall League in 2019. Although he was scouted as a plus hitter with power in his prep days, Rortvedt slashed just .240/.315/.345 with 16 home runs in 1,001 at-bats over 291 games played. In fact, it wasn’t until MLB.com released its 2019 Top 30 Prospect Rankings for the Twins where he was identified as being known more for his defense than his bat as he posted elite caught stealing rates throughout his Minor League career. Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press broke the news first with a flurry of transactions earlier in the day: Twins other top catching prospect, Ryan Jeffers, has had a slow start to the season which opened the door for Rortvedt to make his debut. I would expect Mitch Garver to start getting roughly two-thirds of the playing time while Rortvedt serves as his defensive minded backup. Twins Daily Coverage READ: Kernels Ben Rortvedt is Catching On by Seth Stohs from May 2017 Seth talks with Rortvedt and provides a deeper dive into his background as a catching prospect growing up in Wisconsin. READ: Looking Back: Twins Take Four Prep Hitters Atop 2016 Draft by Seth Stohs from August 2018 Being closer to the action than the National guys, Seth might have been one of the first writers to realize that Rortvedt was getting more recognition for his defense than his bat. WATCH: by Tom FroemmingREAD: Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects: 16-20 by Tom Froemming Rortvedt appeared on many prospect lists and minor league reports throughout his four years in the organization and in the most recent installment he was ranked as the Twins 17th rated prospect after not being ranked in 2020. As Major League Baseball is an offensive minded league, Rortvedt will need to improve his bat to become an everyday catcher for the Minnesota Twins. This is going to be a tall order with both Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers having already displayed their ability to hit at this level despite their struggles to start the 2021 season. Regardless, he can definitely stick with the Club has a back up catcher with plus defense. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins exploded in the third inning and tacked on more in the sixth to take the three-game set against the division leading Royals. Check out today’s game recap for a dive into the days events.Box Score Berríos: 6.0 IP,6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 9 K Home Runs: Simmons (1), Garver (5), Kirlloff (4) Top 3 WPA: Simmons .195, Berríos .132, Arraez .097 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart (1).png Berríos Struggles through Six I’m being tough on Berríos but considering the expectations we have for him and having a seven-run cushion in the third inning, I’d call today a disappointment. Berríos was cruising through three, as he had set down five consecutive Royals with strikeouts and needed only 34 pitches (80% strike percentage) to do so. Then came the extended delay thanks to an offensive explosion by the Twins and Berríos was not able to regain the efficiency and rhythm he had. Twins Daily’s own John Bonnes and Nick Nelson hit the nail on the head with their comments regarding the 26-year old rightie and, in my opinion, this is what keeps his ceiling below that of an “ace” or even a true #1 starter on a team that’s supposed to be contending for a World Series. Specifically in innings four and five, where he gave up four earned runs, he was consistently getting behind hitters and running two and three ball counts by throwing strikes at just a 56% clip. Twins Offense Takes Advantage of Royals Miscues Good things happen when you hit the ball hard and the Twins did PLENTY of that today owning 10 of the top 12 hardest hit balls on the day. On top of Hunter Dozier’s back-to-back errors in the third inning, the Twins had multiple line drives to the outfield that are not technically errors but were misjudged and landed for extra bases. Even on Dozier’s first error, Josh Donaldson’s exit velocity was 96.7 mph on the batted ball which made it very difficult to handle despite being hit right at the third basemen. Arguably the best development of the day (and weekend), is that Mitch Garver is starting to “heat up” as Twins Daily’s own Andrew Gebo put it. On top of hitting his 5th home run of the season today, he had exit velocities of 97.3, 107.2, and 108.5 today going 2-for-4. Okay maybe this is the best development of the weekend ... KIRILLOFF HAS ARRIVED. The rookie smashed another no-doubt home run in the bottom of the 8th inning. He ended the weekend with four home runs and nine RBI’s. Twins Win their First Series Since April 5-7 in Detroit It’s been a rough month for the Twins, especially considering the World Series expectations that the organization, fans, local, and national media had for the club when the season started. Despite getting rocked on Saturday, it’s encouraging to see the offense start to click with 84% of the season still ahead of them. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet) Click here to view the article

It’s been a frustrating start to the season for the Twins and their fans who are expecting their team to contend for a World Series. Consider this article and comment section a judge-free zone where you can respectfully share some of your reactions, no matter how unpopular they might be.Before we dive into some reactions, I think we need to realize and understand that all fanbases really react and behave in the same manner. If you don’t believe me, Twins Daily’s own Tom Froemming did the homework for me earlier this week. The phrase “winning cures everything” not only can apply to team chemistry and culture, but also to the mood and energy of the fanbase. When you’re winning while not following the traditional and figurative “book”, less people question your methods because “it’s working” but ALLLLLLLL of that changes if you’re not winning. When you search #MNTwins twitter right now, the hot topic issues are mostly surrounding Rocco Baldelli, Willians Astudillo, Randy Dobnak, the Twins bullpen, and to a lesser extent José Berríos. Those are the topics I will breach and encourage you to add your own opinions and reactions to the first two weeks. It’s therapy through writing, people!! Rocco Baldelli is the best Manager for the Twins and this Front Office There is nobody more under fire than Rocco Baldelli right now, especially when it comes to the usage of his pitchers. Although some of it is justified, I believe that Rocco Baldelli is the one of the best Managers in baseball and is the best Manager for the Twins, as he has bought into two ideas: Analytics“Trusting the process”Like it or not, and I know many of you don’t like it, analytics and sabermetrics consume the modern baseball world and influence every decision that is made. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine believe in underlying analytics and have invested in them by hiring Baldelli and expanding the Twins Research and Development Department. If analytics isn’t your thing, then I guess that’s fine, but the Twins front office has put together a team that aligns with their vision and that is important for “the process”. We hear the phrase all of the time ... ”trust the process”, and even as frustrating as it is at times, Baldelli trusts and has bought into “the process”. A good friend of mine (@West_Coast_Jack on twitter for all your elite Gopher analytic needs) said it well, “Rocco literally does not care at all about winning any specific game because [he] only manages for [the] long term”. He’s going to be extra cautious with players who have a checkered injury past by sitting them even if they just returned from the DL and only played in one game. He’s going to limit his pitchers early in the year to 80-90 pitches even if they're cruising, because less usage early on theoretically keeps their arms healthy and strong come playoff time. It might cost us wins in April and May, which I would argue are just as important as wins in August and September, but looking at the bigger picture it’s more important that the players are healthy at the end of the season. Rocco is trusting that process and so should we. Speaking of Big Picture, Willians Astudillo Isn’t a Part of It Astudillo is a “clubhouse guy.” Astudillo brings energy. Astudillo brings entertainment. **Whispers** Astudillo doesn’t bring much more than that. And when you’re on an 18-game playoff losing streak that should matter more than his previously mentioned attributes. You can miss me with the “he doesn’t strike out” or “he’s batting .304 this year and .295 for his career” statistics. I feel like I’m cheating off Tom’s homework here but he can’t put it any better than I would have so I’d like to give him credit: “La Tortuga has actually been productive so far, but this is not sustainable” is the story of his big league career to this point. His positional versatility is a plus, although he’s not really “great” at any position, so his role should really be the last guy off the bench making a spot start once, maybe twice a week. He isn’t an everyday player or a long term solution at any position, and he absolutely shouldn’t be relied on in a high leverage role as a hitter. Randy Dobnak is a Low Leverage Reliever or Spot Starter It seems like we pick and choose when spring statistics matter, and I’m as guilty as everyone else! For example, although there was some concern with Kepler’s spring, the overwhelming thought was “eh, it’s spring training” he’ll be fine. On the other hand, Dobnak dominated the spring and his new slider was the talk of the town with many saying he’s turning into a frontline starter. It’s too early to definitively say that Dobnak can’t be a reliever, although his performances in three appearances this season are dramatically different from the five spring appearances. I’ve never trusted Dobnak’s success in the bigs and wrote about that two weeks before he was sent to the alternate site last year, and although it was encouraging, I was definitely a “let’s wait and see what happens” regarding his performance when games didn’t count. Dobnak’s story is undoubtedly a great one, although I imagine most minor leaguers work part-time jobs given their pathetic “salaries”, but I go back to the 18-game playoff losing streak. Inspiring story is great but I want the best players in the best positions. Dobnak can contribute at the Major League level, but until he proves otherwise he needs to stay in low leverage situations and I can’t trust him as a season long starter. The Twins Bullpen Will Be FINE! R.E.L.A.X The Twins don’t have the top end arm in their bullpen like maybe the White Sox, Yankees, or Dodgers, but I think the depth of the bullpen is its strength despite the shaky start. Not many teams have the option to roll out four different pitchers (Alex Colomé, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Hansel Robles) who have all had success in high-leverage roles throughout their careers. That doesn’t include Caleb Thielbar and Cody Stashak who have been effective out of the bullpen this year too. I believe the Law of Averages will balance out and the bullpen will end the season as one of the best in Majors. José Berríos is Our Third Best Starter This isn’t necessarily a reaction to the first two weeks of the season, as I’ve thought this for two years when Pineda had recovered from Tommy John and is a statistically accurate statement since June 1, 2019. That said, Berríos start to the season is a perfect snapshot into why I think this. From one start to another, Berríos undoubtedly has the higher ceiling as he can have an outing like he did in the second game of the season, but he’s equally if not more likely to have outings like the two he’s had since. He’s far too inefficient and inconsistent for me to slot him ahead of Pineda as the Twins second best starter. In fact, Twins Daily’s own Matthew Taylor shared this stat after his most recent start against the Red Sox: I'm not saying the gap is large, but I’ll take the consistency and higher floor of Pineda as my number two over the higher ceiling but inconsistency of Berríos when I need a win. What are your reactions through the first two weeks of the season? Are you worried or still feeling it out this early in the year? Add your thoughts in the comment section! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Alexander Colomé entered the ninth inning Sunday tasked with protecting a one-run lead. It did not go well. A pair of singles followed by a Kyle Seager home run, the first Colomé has surrendered since 2019, gave Seattle a series-clinching win.Box Score Shoemaker: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Buxton (5) Bottom 3 WPA: Colomé -.748, Cave -.078, Kepler -.052 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart.png Arraez and Buxton Continue Torrid Starts The Twins were aggressive early with Mariners’ starter Chris Flexen as he threw only 11 pitches in the first inning, but faced six Twins batters, allowing three hard hit singles, and a line drive sacrifice fly” to Nelson Cruz. Flexen responded by leaning on his off speed more, but the Twins offense continued to hit. They added three additional runs in the third, and then Byron Buxton hit a two-run, 428-foot shot to center field that, based on his body language, he seemed to think was going to stay in the park in the bottom of the fifth. The home run was his fifth of the season and his second extra-base hit of the day. The Twins only other threat of the day came in the bottom of the seventh inning where they had Miguel Sanó and Max Kepler on 1st and 2nd base, respectively, with two outs but a Jake Cave ground out ended the inning. Matt Shoemaker Cruises Through Five Innings Right out of the gates, Shoemaker struggled to find the zone hitting the second batter of the game and issuing a five-pitch walk to the third batter, Kyle Seager. He escaped that jam and proceeded to throw strikes at a 67% clip, striking out five Mariners, and allowing no runs between innings two and five. Then came the sixth, where he started hanging breaking balls and the middle of the Mariners lineup was banging breaking balls. It started with a solo shot from Seager, then a José Marmolejos double that was just a few feet from being gone, and then Taylor Trammell made it a 6-4 game with a three-run bomb of his own. Regardless, Shoemaker was likely done for the day as he was nearing 100 pitches anyway but home plate umpire Manny Gonzalez made sure of it by ejecting Shoemaker for saying “freaking”... I guess. Alex Colomé Implodes ... Again Stashak relieved Shoemaker, and despite struggling with command, was able to shut down Mariners in the sixth and was pulled after hitting France to start the seventh. He was followed by Caleb Thielbar, who allowed one-run on a fielder's choice, and Hansel Robles who pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning. Twins fans were ... uhhh … ”treated” to the Alex Colomé Experience in the ninth where he allowed back-to-back singles to the first two batters and then a three-run blast to Seager, which was his second of the day. Colomé did record an out on a deep fly ball, but then allowed another single before being pulled in favor of Jorge Alcala making his third appearance of the spring who closed out the inning unscathed. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: pen.png Click here to view the article

New leadoff man Luis Arráez provided a spark that helped the Twins tally eight runs against the Brewers Sunday afternoon. Arráez was 3-for-3 with a pair of walks. Come read all about the game in today’s recap.Box Score Pineda: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K Home Runs: Garver (1), Sanó (1) Top 3 WPA: Pineda .193, Arráez .166, Garver .160 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart.png Buxton Leaves Game Unexpectedly in the Third Twins Daily own, Tom Froemming, speculated that it could possibly be a migraine being that nothing seemed to physically happen in the field. I don’t know that a “non-COVID illness” eliminates the potential for a migraine, but Dan Hayes of The Athletic later added “... this isn’t serious, just unpleasant”. I would guess that with Buxton’s history of concussions a migraine might be considered more serious, so hopefully this just means Buxton is dealing with flu-like symptoms rather than anything that could linger for more than a few days. Starting Pitchers Duel Early It may not have been both starters pitching six no-hit innings like it was on Saturday night, but Adrian Houser and Michael Pineda were both efficient and effective through the first four innings of the game. Combined the righties allowed just five hits and two walks while striking out a combined five batters. Each pitcher allowed an early run as the Twins scored in the top of the first on a Kepler RBI groundout and the Brewers took advantage of a Polanco fielding error. Houser gave up an opposite field homerun to Mitch Garver, his first on the year, in the top of the fifth before being pulled for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the fifth. For the Twins, Pineda also only lasted five innings despite just being at 81 pitches, but this was partially due to a 31-pitch fifth inning and the Twins offense scoring four runs in the top half of the sixth. When his day was done, Pineda allowed six baserunners and zero earned runs while striking out five, and Twins Daily own Matthew Taylor encapsulated his start perfectly. Twins Offense Leaves 21 Runners on Base The Twins leave Milwaukee 2-1, scoring 15 runs, and combining for 37 walks and hits throughout the series so it’s hard to complain. That said, the Twins also combined to leave 47 runners on base throughout the series, including 23 on Thursday afternoon. This isn’t a trend I would expect to continue as the Twins have the third best batting average with runners on base in the league since the start of the 2019 season but something to keep an eye on early on in the season. Twins Bullpen Lights Out Again Stashak allowed a solo homerun to Jackie Bradley Jr to start the sixth inning and appeared to be having troubles with his landing spot on the mound. After walking the next batter he made an adjustment and that represented the only real opportunity the Brewers had to give Houser a no-decision for his efforts. The bullpen finished their day retiring the last 11 Brewers batters. With the exception of one inning on Thursday afternoon the Twins bullpen was very good this series allowing just 3+2+?? Walks and hits combined over 11 2/3 innings pitched in the series. Dick Brehmer of Bally Sports North noted that the Twins bullpen had seven 1-2-3 innings in the series, and ended with a total of eight after Alcala locked down the ninth inning. More importantly, Alex Colomé bounced back with a save on Saturday after that disastrous inning on Opening Day, although Tyler Duffey carried his spring into the start of the season allowing four baserunners during his two outings totaling 1 1/3 innings. Postgame with Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Screenshot 2021-04-04 at 4.43.31 PM.png Click here to view the article