Matthew Lenz

Sano surprises people with some of his plays because he's a big guy. That's not the same as him being a good third basemen. He is not a good third basemen, but makes some really nice plays for a player his size.

It is not my idea to move Sano to first. This piece is in response to the rumors that we are "kicking the tires" on free agent third basemen. If that's the case then I would target a cheap option so we can land a big name starting pitcher. I would love to see Cron at 1B in 2020. Eventually, I want to see Sano be our full time DH when Cruz is done. I hope Sano "prefers" to help the team in anyway possible. Because he's not a good third basemen and he needs to be willing to DH.

I'm with you. I don't get moving Sano over to first base either. I'm on board with tendering Cron a one-year deal and keeping Sano at third for at least one more season while Cruz is still our DH. Eventually, I'd like to see Sano be our full time DH as I think that's how he stays healthy. That said, this article is in response to the rumors that came out over this weekend and these three names aren't much of a downgrade while being a lot cheaper and not prohibiting the Twins from adding a big name starter.

It was reported by multiple sources over the weekend that the Twins were “kicking the tires” on a few free agent third basemen. This list included the likes of Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier with some speculation that Mike Moustakas could be targeted as well. Here are a few more names to consider.Darren Wolfson of KSTP was first to report the Twins interest in Donaldson and Frazier. MLB Trade Rumors speculated that Moustakas could also be a target. Last night, Nate Palmer made a very good argument that the Twins should pursue Moustakas over Donaldson. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook projected Moustakas would sign a three-year, $36MM deal, which in theory would only be an extra $5MM from what Cron is projected to make this season, assuming Miguel Sano moves to first base. That said, the Twins have a much bigger need to sign two, possibly three, more starting pitchers, including at least one who could have an average annual value (AAV) of more than $20MM per year. Furthermore, the additional projected $12MM per year in 2021 and 2022 to Moustakas could prohibit the Twins from making any deadline or free agent moves in the future when they hope to be competing for a World Series. Although the sample is small, FanGraphs has Sano as a better first baseman than third but he would still be considered a “poor” defender by their metrics. In short, this move would basically be inconsequential compared to if he were playing third base. Instead, what we’re looking to compare is how much of an improvement would new third baseman be over Cron. That calculation should include both a statistical comparison and take into account the financials. Another thing to consider is Sano could become a near full-time DH in the near future, as Alex Kirilloff is close to being Major League ready and has played some first base. It’s worth mentioning that, despite another small sample, Marwin Gonzalez has been a slightly better defensive third baseman than Moustakas over the past four seasons and is under contract for 2020 at $9MM. As an in-house option over Cron, Gonzalez provides a little less offense but a lot more defense, so he could be a good solution without the added cost. Let's look at some other, cheaper options. Brock Holt, Super Utility Entering his age-32 season, Brock Holt has established himself as a Marwin Gonzalez proto-type. He can play any position, including third, but doesn’t quite have the bat the Gonzalez and Cron have. MLBTR projected him at just two years, $8MM so you’re getting a bit of a lesser player but for about half the AAV he’s much better than half the player. Todd Frazier, 3B He’ll be 34 before the season starts, but Frazier has still be a productive player over the last two seasons as a part of the Mets. Until 2019, Frazier was always a plus defender at third but age may be slowing him down a bit as he had his worst defensive season since 2016. Regardless, he would still provide a bottom of the order punch similar to what Cron did, and would likely demand about the same AAV as Brock Holt. Another case of half the cost but more than half the player. Matt Duffy, 3B The oft-injured former Rookie of the Year runner-up just cleared waivers and was released by the Tampa Bay Rays today despite being only one year removed from a 2.3 fWAR campaign. A definite buy-low candidate who has an above average career OPS and an average UZR would likely be looking at a one-year “prove it” deal with a very low base salary in 2020. The Twins would be taking the risk of having to find a filler if he gets hurt, but that’s something they can afford to do with Marwin Gonzalez on the roster. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Hot Commodities: Catching Up on the Free Agent Catcher Market — Teams Can Shop Through Solid Twins Rule 5 Additions — Can Jorge Polanco's Power Survive a New Baseball? Click here to view the article

Starting pitching is more important than the bullpen when constructing a World Series contender. I went back to 2016 to prove my assertion. Only once did both World Series teams have top-20 bullpens and on average starting rotations ranked two spots better for postseason teams, per fWAR.More specifically, here are some facts for you regarding teams' starting pitchers accumulating fWAR in the regular season in 2019: The Nationals and Astros were first and fourth, respectivelyFive of the top 10 and seven of the top 12 were playoff teamsThe A’s finished 0.1 fWAR outside of the top 10The Yankees, ranked 17th, were without their best starter all seasonRealistically, the only outlier were the Brewers who ranked 20th.For at least the next couple of seasons, the Twins have a pretty clear path to Central Division titles but I have put together a blueprint that should bring us into the top echelon of teams and perennial World Series contenders. This if the Twins are willing to spend and can sign the biggest names on the market for 2020. The rationale is simple: let's bring back what worked in 2019 while significantly improving the weakest area of our team which was the starting rotation. Here are my moves: Tender all arbitration-eligible players This doesn’t include Dyson, but let's bring back the other nine players. Using the TD Offseason Handbook as my reference, bringing back Sano, Rosario, Cron, Buxton, Adrianza, Berrios, Rogers, May, and Duffey would cost about $39.3 million. Sign Gerrit Cole to a seven-year, $245 million contract Yep, he’s part of my picture. At just 29 years old, it’s not crazy to think that Gerrit Cole could be the best pitcher in baseball for the majority, maybe even the entirety, of his contract. If Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander can be two of the best pitchers in their mid- to late 30’s, then why can’t Gerrit Cole? This isn’t the $300+ million contract everyone was talking about, but this makes him the highest paid pitcher in MLB history in both total salary and AAV. That’s what it’s going to take to bring the Cali-kid to the frozen tundra. Sign Zach Wheeler to a five-year, $100 million contract Could Zach Wheeler be the next Gerrit Cole? Okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but Wheeler’s peripherals suggest that he can be a lot better than he has been. In 2019, Wes Johnson got career years from Berrios and Odorizzi, while getting a very good bounce-back campaign from Pineda before his suspension. What’s to say that his next project can’t be Zach Wheeler and Zach Wheeler can’t become one of the best pitchers in baseball? Re-sign Jake Odorizzi to a three-year, $45 million contract Jake Odorizzi had a career year with the Twins in 2019 and is only 29-years-old. It makes sense to bring him back on more than just a one-year qualifying offer type of deal. As suggested by the Offseason Handbook, he has a draft pick tied to him which will drive his cost and market down a tad. Sign Drew Smyly to a one-year, $3 million contract A few weeks ago, I wrote about Drew Smyly who could be low-risk, high-reward number five starter for the Twins in 2020. The Twins have the starting depth to take a risk on a guy who can be great when healthy and throwing strikes. He was actually brought in to Philadelphia midseason in 2019 to help with their playoff push and was pretty solid outside of a crazy high HR/FB rate. If he gets hurt or isn’t performing, then you replace him with Dobnak/Stashak/Graterol/etc. Re-sign Jason Castro to a one-year, $6 million contract Consistency between pitchers and catchers is important and Castro was a big part of the Twins success in 2019, including helping keep Garver rested. If he’s not willing to come back then I’d offer the same contract to Stephen Vogt who has a profile similar to Castro's, but more positional versatility. Summary Outside of a possible change in the catcher platoon, I’m keeping the offense as-is. If it ain’t broke then don’t fix it, amirite? I’ve said before that I don’t think the Twins will extend any of their young guys this offseason, so we’ll get them on the cheap for another year. The 2020 cost of the offense is about $67.9 million. Download attachment: Lenz1.png My big moves were in the starting rotation. My blueprint gives us the best one through four in baseball with the low-risk upside of a very good number five. The 2020 cost of the starting rotation is about $77.5 million. Download attachment: Lenz2.png I am relying on our minor league depth to beef up the bottom of the bullpen. If 2019 was any indication Rogers, May, and Duffey will have no problem anchoring the 8th and 9th innings of most games. In 2020, we’ll be relying on the likes of Thorpe, Littell, Dobnak, Stashak, and Smeltzer. I kept Romero and Graterol in the minors to groom them as spot-starters as needed. The 2020 cost of the bullpen is about $10.8 million. Download attachment: Lenz3.png Including the Martin Perez $500,000 buyout, this brings our 2020 payroll to a franchise record of $156.7 million. If we were to lose some of our young, cheap players, since so much of our money would be invested in the starting rotation, the depth of our minor league system would allow the offense and bullpen to replenish internally. What would your blueprint look like for the Twins this winter? Download your copy of the Offseason Handbook and use it to construct a champion. Share your vision for discussion in our Create a Blueprint forum thread. Meanwhile, stay tuned to TD as our writers will be formulating offseason plans from different perspectives all week long. ~~~~ Check out these other Offseason Blueprints: Building a Bullpenner Hooking a Big Fish Making Big Betts The Window Just Opened Click here to view the article

It absolutely affects every team. I don't know how much readers on this site care about every team more than just want to know how it could impact their favorite team, which is why I took it from that vantage point. So, I think we can agree to agree! It's all about pace of play in my opinion. Less players = less pitching changes.

During the 2019 offseason MLB and the MLBPA agreed on various rule changes. Some of these rule changes went into effect in 2019, but there are a few that are going into effect in 2020, and they'll certainly have an impact on the Twins.Active Roster The most notable change for 2020 is the active roster expanding from 25 to 26 through August 31st. This also means that rosters will be upped to 27 from 26 for doubleheaders. In addition, when September rolls around, for the first time since 1920, rosters will only expand to 28 instead of 40. The most interesting aspect of this roster rule is that teams will be capped on how many pitchers they are allowed to have, which means that they will need to designate who is a pitcher and who is not. Although the number of pitchers has yet to be agreed upon, this means that position players can pitch under two conditions: If the game is in extra inningsIf a team is winning or losing by six or more runs.How the Twins handle the extra roster spot will likely be based on need at the time, and it’s hard to predict when we don’t know what the pitcher cap will be. Furthermore, our next rule change actually puts an additional limit on how many pitchers you will use in a game. Three Batter Minimum Bid farewell to the LOOGY (Lefty One-Out Guy) and managers playing batter-versus-pitcher matchups, in general. Starting next season, pitchers will need to face a minimum of three batters OR finish the inning. This is obviously to help with the pace of play, but what makes this interesting is that it's the first rule that will directly impact in-game decisions on almost a nightly basis. In 2019, the Twins brought in a left-handed pitcher to face a single left-handed batter on just two occasions, and with the help of the Baseball Reference Play Index, I estimate that the Twins used a pitcher for less than three batters without finishing an inning 50 different times. That’s all to say that Rocco didn’t seem to use relievers for single matchups much in 2019, so I don’t see this rule negatively impacting the Twins much in 2020. Injured List The 10-day IL was a short lived experiment that teams started taking advantage of, specifically with their pitching, so it’s going back to the 15-day DL. Theoretically, the Twins could use this to gain an edge but I don’t think it’ll be something noticeably different in 2020. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — 3 Creative Ways for Twins to Leverage Their Spending Flexibility — Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz Win 2019 Silver Slugger Award — 2020 Offseason Handbook Now Available for Download Click here to view the article

Because of his struggles in 2019, I'd have to imagine that he will start 2020 in the minors unless he just blows the team away in spring training. But even if that happens, where is there room for him in the line up if we have Rosario and Cron back? I think we see him up in September if he has proven that he is ready for the call.

I actually had the same thought, as well as about Berrios and Sano...I just have no basis for it so I try not to throw it into any of my articles

Ooh, that is a big one. Thanks for contributing!

He can be the "core member of the this team [and] an important part of what made the Twins what they were in 2019" and still be coming off his worst year as a pro. A reason for his struggle might be because of having a bum ankle. All of that can be true, and although it is most definitely my opinion, it is supported by fWAR. Outside of 2016, where he only played 92 games, 1.2 is the lowest fWAR of his career. I'm not saying he is trash...I am saying, in my opinion, now is not the right time for either party to sign a long term extension.

Rosario is coming off is worst year as a pro, so I don't know that the Twins (or him) will be looking for a long term deal. Also consider that they have had talks in the past and couldn't come to an agreement. Berrios is a possibility, but he has also turned down contract extensions in the past. He's also improved every year as a pro, so he may be betting on himself to continue improving and demand bigger money down the road. Buxton is a tougher case with his injury history. My guess would be he would want to wait until he has another year of 130+ games under his belt before agreeing to a long term deal as he will be worth more then. And who knows how he feels regarding not being called up for the September 2018 roster expansion. Sano is another tough case because he's not good defensively and we have hitting depth in the minors. If he can put up the numbers he did this year through a full season then he may want to see what kind of money he can get in free agency. I'm not saying all of these are never going to happen, but I would lean on them not happening this offseason.

Uf-dah! That's embarrassing. Thanks for pointing it out...we've gone ahead and removed the days of the week and just left the dates!

The Twins have a projected $70 million to spend with the goal becoming a perennial World Series contender instead of just a playoff participant. The importance of this offseason will be discussed a lot over the next few months. Here is a rundown of important offseason dates.Below you will see the list of important offseason dates and a short summary of how the date impacts the Twins. Nov. 4 - Award Finalists Announced Rocco Baldelli was announced as a finalist for the American League Manager of the Year. Nov. 5 - Qualifying Offer Deadline This year the league-wide qualifying offer was determined to be $17.8 million over one year, which is determined by taking the “mean salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players,” per MLB.com. On Monday the Twins extended a qualifying offer to RHP Jake Odorizzi. He’ll have 10 days to make a decision to accept or enter free agency. If he declines, the Twins could be compensated with a draft pick if he signs prior to the 2020 MLB Draft. Nov. 11 thru Nov. 14 - General Manager (GM) Meetings Among other topics, this is where trade talks can start and you could start hearing rumors about possible deals. Nov. 12 - Managers of the Year Announced Rocco will look to become the fourth Manger of the Year in franchise history. The Twins would become the first franchise to win three MoY awards in a 10 season period. Not to mention with three different managers. Nov. 14 - Qualifying Offers Accepted or Rejected Here is a list of all the qualifying offers around the league, some of which have been mentioned as free agent targets for the Twins: Jose Abreu, Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Josh Donaldson, Jake Odorizzi, Marcell Ozuna, Anthony Rendon, Will Smith, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler. Nov. 19 thru Nov. 21 - Owners Meetings Owners meet to talk about the “business” side of MLB (TV deals, rule changes, etc.). Dec. 2 - Non-tender Deadline MLB Trade Rumors is a great resource for various projections and, well, rumors. Here is their take on our arbitration eligible players: Dec. 9 thru Dec. 12 - Winter Meetings This is where trade talks can really heat up and even happen, as well as many other things. Dec. 12 - Rule 5 Draft Seth Stohs wrote a good article on the Rule 5 draft for the Twins. Jan. 10 - Arbitration Figures Exchanged Jan. 24 thru Jan. 25 - Twins Fest Tickets go on sale on Dec. 11. Notice that they it’s only a two day event this year. Jan. 25 - Twins Daily Winter Meltdown Mark your calendar!! Feb. 12 - Pitchers and Catcher Report It may be a long time until baseball season, but we'll definitely have a lot to pay attention to over the next 99 days. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. Click here to view the article

You've made it clear that you don't judge based off awards, thus my comment about re-evaluating obviously don't apply to you. I am still curious as to what defensive metrics you're looking at as I have scoured Fan Graphs and Baseball Savant but cannot find somewhere that would show he's the best LF In the AL. I understand your scouting and insider knowledge are probably off limits but I'm still not seeing a metric that would suggest that. Am I looking in the wrong places?

I think Eddie gets so much hate because of where he batted in the order, which obviously isn't his fault. But putting him 4th, with his approach, was frustrating to watch for much of the second half.

Metrics and statistics definitely do not paint the whole picture. None of the ones that I have looked at take his "arm" into consideration, so he isn't be docked for how often he tried to throw home or the accuracy of his throws.

I'm curious what you're seeing that suggests that Grossman is the best LF in the AL? If you're using a gold glove as your only evidence, then I would recommend re-evaluating how you judge defenders in baseball. I'm not saying metrics and statistics are the end all be all, but I trust those wayyyy more than I trust the gold glove voting process. I know it's MLB coaches, but they're making their votes based on watching a player for at most 19 games and in majority of cases 3-7 times...assuming that the best defenders are in every game.

None of the defensive stats I've referenced rank/rate his "arm".

Odorizzi and Berrios posted the highest fWARs of their career. Once Pineda regained his velocity he was better than both Odorizzi and Berrios. Gibson was on pace for his highest fWAR season before ulcerative colitis derailed his season. This all seems really good, in my opinion.

Tom and I discussed Eddie's defense on Periscope...check it out!