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Darren Wolfson of KSTP was first to report the Twins interest in Donaldson and Frazier. MLB Trade Rumors speculated that Moustakas could also be a target.
Last night, Nate Palmer made a very good argument that the Twins should pursue Moustakas over Donaldson. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook projected Moustakas would sign a three-year, $36MM deal, which in theory would only be an extra $5MM from what Cron is projected to make this season, assuming Miguel Sano moves to first base.
That said, the Twins have a much bigger need to sign two, possibly three, more starting pitchers, including at least one who could have an average annual value (AAV) of more than $20MM per year. Furthermore, the additional projected $12MM per year in 2021 and 2022 to Moustakas could prohibit the Twins from making any deadline or free agent moves in the future when they hope to be competing for a World Series.
Although the sample is small, FanGraphs has Sano as a better first baseman than third but he would still be considered a “poor” defender by their metrics. In short, this move would basically be inconsequential compared to if he were playing third base.
Instead, what we’re looking to compare is how much of an improvement would new third baseman be over Cron. That calculation should include both a statistical comparison and take into account the financials. Another thing to consider is Sano could become a near full-time DH in the near future, as Alex Kirilloff is close to being Major League ready and has played some first base.
It’s worth mentioning that, despite another small sample, Marwin Gonzalez has been a slightly better defensive third baseman than Moustakas over the past four seasons and is under contract for 2020 at $9MM. As an in-house option over Cron, Gonzalez provides a little less offense but a lot more defense, so he could be a good solution without the added cost.
Let's look at some other, cheaper options.
Brock Holt, Super Utility
Entering his age-32 season, Brock Holt has established himself as a Marwin Gonzalez proto-type. He can play any position, including third, but doesn’t quite have the bat the Gonzalez and Cron have. MLBTR projected him at just two years, $8MM so you’re getting a bit of a lesser player but for about half the AAV he’s much better than half the player.
Todd Frazier, 3B
He’ll be 34 before the season starts, but Frazier has still be a productive player over the last two seasons as a part of the Mets. Until 2019, Frazier was always a plus defender at third but age may be slowing him down a bit as he had his worst defensive season since 2016. Regardless, he would still provide a bottom of the order punch similar to what Cron did, and would likely demand about the same AAV as Brock Holt. Another case of half the cost but more than half the player.
Matt Duffy, 3B
The oft-injured former Rookie of the Year runner-up just cleared waivers and was released by the Tampa Bay Rays today despite being only one year removed from a 2.3 fWAR campaign. A definite buy-low candidate who has an above average career OPS and an average UZR would likely be looking at a one-year “prove it” deal with a very low base salary in 2020. The Twins would be taking the risk of having to find a filler if he gets hurt, but that’s something they can afford to do with Marwin Gonzalez on the roster.
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