Could the Twins Make a Late Play for Red Sox Slugger Triston Casas?

[Nick Nelson]

There's a proven young first baseman known to be on the trade market, with his team reportedly seeking quality pitching in return. It's not hard to see the match here.

Image courtesy of Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

We're at the stage of the offseason where the Minnesota Twins, under Derek Falvey, have been known to get creative with stunning blockbuster moves that seemingly materialize out of nowhere. While this front office has been dormant for two full years now, I can't shake the feeling that some type of significant move is still in the offing as the team looks to generate excitement (and TV sign-ups) ahead of a pivotal season.

As I size up the offseason landscape and where it stands with spring training about to commence, one clear possibility sticks out. First baseman Triston Casas is on the market, and few teams have as stark of a need for his services as the Twins.

Red Sox Are Known To Have Shopped Casas
It seems to be one of the worst-kept secrets of this hot stove season. Adam Jude wrote recently in the Seattle Times that the Mariners rejected multiple trade offers from Boston this offseason that proposed exchanging Casas for starting pitching — first targeting a young starter like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, then veteran starter Luis Castillo. 

 

Unable to get a bite on Casas in December, the Red Sox pivoted in their pursuit of pitching, swinging a big trade with the White Sox for Garrett Crochet and signing free agent right-hander Walker Buehler. Even after adding those arms, though, Boston still apparently kept dangling Casas. MassLive reporter Chris Cotillo wrote a month ago that "there remains a belief in the industry that the Red Sox remain open to trading Casas, potentially for young pitching." This came as the Red Sox were thought to be exploring a trade for Nolan Arenado, whose presence alongside Rafael Devers would make Casas somewhat of a redundancy.

Twins Have Seen Casas's Offensive Prowess First-Hand
If Casas is familiar to you, it might be because you watched him essentially deliver the death blow to the Twins' 2024 season. The slugger launched three home runs and drove in seven at Fenway Park on September 22nd, taking Pablo López deep twice and handing the Twins a loss they couldn't afford. 

 

It came on the tail end of an injury-shortened season for the 24-year-old, who missed nearly four months with torn cartilage in his ribs. But when on the field for 63 games, he posted a 120 OPS+, backing up his breakthrough 2023 season where Casas slashed .263/.367/.490 with 21 homers to finish third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

For his career, Casas has an .830 OPS fueled by a disciplined, powerful approach. He's a former first-round draft pick and top prospect so the track record is there. In terms of difference-making moves the Twins could pull off at this point, reeling in Casas to take over first base is about the biggest I can realistically imagine.

With just over two years of MLB service under his belt, he's slated to make the minimum this year and under team control through 2028. Stepping in alongside a core of mid-20s talent, Casas would fit into Minnesota's plans quite nicely, financially and otherwise. That is, if they are willing to pay the freight.

What Would It Cost to Get Casas?
The Twins have plenty of players who could be appealing to Boston — part of what makes this an interesting scenario to consider. If the Red Sox were targeting controllable rotation standouts like Miller and Woo, it stands to reason someone like Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan might strike their fancy. Boston also could be interested in adding a relief weapon like Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax to the back end of their bullpen, giving the Twins a chance to deal from their strength. 

The front offices of Boston and Minnesota are plenty familiar. They've already swung one trade this offseason (Mickey Gasper for Jovani Moran), and Red Sox GM Craig Breslow was actually one of the first signings by Falvey as Twins CBO. 

I'm on the record as saying I expected the Twins to make a significant pitching-for-hitting trade this offseason, and this would fit that bill to the extreme. Is it advisable? That depends.

Why Is Casas Being Made Available?
You can't help but wonder. It's not like Breslow and the Red Sox are desperately looking to unload Casas, but the overt presence of an inexpensive 25-year-old hitter with his pedigree in trade discussions is noteworthy. 

The simple and relatively innocuous explanation is that Boston sees an opportunity to flip an ascendant hitter with minimal defensive value for quality pitching, which is in greater scarcity than a good lefty bat at first base. That shouldn't scare the Twins.

The more troubling idea is that the Red Sox have doubts about Casas for some reason — the way his skill set will age, or the way he'll rebound from the injury that sidelined him for so long last year. That's obviously something you need to be very careful of if you're talking about parting with the assets it'll take to add a Triston Casas, but on the surface this looks like a pretty terrific fit for Minnesota's needs. That is, if they're interested in boldly shaking up the status quo.

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[dxpavelka]

Pete. Alonzo.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’d be all for this to be honest, at least in some capacity. I have a hard time seeing Casas being worth either Ober or Ryan alone, but maybe they have another piece or two to attach to Casas that we would like? I’d at least be open to it

[miracleb]

1st base and DH are the two easiest positions to fill interally.  Boston was looking for someone like Bryce Miller from Seattle in return?  I would hope that Bailey Ober can eventually get to Bryce Miller level!  So minimum giving up Bailey Ober for a "minimal defensive value" 1st baseman........pass!

[Eris]

Power hitting first baseman with defensive liabilities are a dime a dozen. Casas so far has put up 1.7 WAR in his best season. Any GM who trades Ober or Ryan for Casas should be fired. 

[Otaknam]

Absolutely not if it means trading Ober or Ryan, weakening your rotation. Having four good starters is more important, as that gives you a chance to win each time put. But the Twins only have three solid proven starters. Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, etc are all unproven, though they have an upside yet to be achieved. A solid starter is more difficult to find and develop than a first baseman, especially another left handed hitter. 

[mluebker]

The Twins should cobble together an infield from the talent they have, hang onto the pitching they’ve got, and wait for the new owners—whoever they might be—to build on that.

[Jeff K]

our top 3 starters are darned close to untouchable.  Certainly not for this guy.

[NotAboutWinning]

16 minutes ago, miracleb said:

1st base and DH are the two easiest positions to fill

And yet, the Twins have neither.

[miracleb]

9 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

And yet, the Twins have neither.

Exactly!   And we still finished in the middle of the pack in 1st base production stats!

[Cory Engelhardt]

21 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Absolutely not if it means trading Ober or Ryan, weakening your rotation. Having four good starters is more important, as that gives you a chance to win each time put. But the Twins only have three solid proven starters. Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, etc are all unproven, though they have an upside yet to be achieved. A solid starter is more difficult to find and develop than a first baseman, especially another left handed hitter. 

What if they do this AND trade for someone like Cease? Would that change your mind?

[rv78]

Yeah, just what the Twins need...... Another injury prone player with defensive liabilities and 1 partial season of success. Why on earth would anyone trade a starting pitcher (Ryan or Ober) that is a solid part of your rotation or your 2 best relievers (Jax and Duran) for another Hope and a Prayer type player? It would be totally different if he had 2 seasons of being a good hitter and fielder but he doesn't even have 1. It would be totally different if the Twins had Festa, Matthews and any other AAA pitcher you want to name that they KNEW they could count on to replace the traded pitcher or if they WERE the traded pitcher. Yes Falvey is known for his stunning blockbuster moves that bring in injured or washed up players that turn into mush. Please stop the rediculousness.

[MinnInPa]

59 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d be all for this to be honest, at least in some capacity. I have a hard time seeing Casas being worth either Ober or Ryan alone, but maybe they have another piece or two to attach to Casas that we would like? I’d at least be open to it

we need Ober , Ryan more than we need Casas

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

we need Ober , Ryan more than we need Casas

I agree. I just think being creative here over the course of the offseason and at least listen. I'm not saying I'd be open to trading either Ober or Ryan right now, but you have to see what the offers are right?

[gmwannabe]

I wouldn't give Boston Ober or Ryan for Casas, but I would offer Duran and Miranda for Casas. Stop with the nonsense that power hitting 1st baseman are a dime a dozen. Only Vlad and Harper hit 30 HR's last year. CASAS hit 13 in 68 games, do the math. 

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

As I have already said several times this offseason, these trade evaluation articles are always great for their comedic value, I will give the writer that.  I mean clearly this article was written tongue in cheek and without any sincerity...... right??

Seriously though, another analysis where we are giving up one or more of our best players for some mid level pick up that would NEVER counter off the actual cost of losing Ober or Ryan??   

[Heiny]

I would trade SWR for Casas straight up.  But not Ober or Ryan.  Maybe Mathews and another mid prospect.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What if they do this AND trade for someone like Cease? Would that change your mind?

That is exactly what crossed my mind when I saw this article. I have also wondered if the Twins could pull off a deal for Cease and follow it up with a Joe Ryan for Samuel Basallo move. Opportunity is there.

Craig Breslow was a pitcher who depended on his fielders to turn the batted balls in play into outs. You can be sure he is very aware of the defensive assets and liabilities of each of the Red Sox players. It is an easy explanation for why Boston wants to move Devers to 1B. They have already moved Yoshida to DH. The Red Sox are also still courting Bregman, a player who is good defensively and fits Fenway Park perfectly. Tristan Casas is a solid power hitting DH, but his glove will make us call for Miranda and Julien at first base. 

I can see why Breslow wants to get something for Casas and I would do the same. I can also see the value of Casas as a DH for the Twins. I have a hard time thinking of who to surrender in a deal for the lefty slugger though. 

[jimmyc]

Triston Casas was not traded for a quality pitcher for the same reason that Pete Alonzo is still waiting for a free-agent contract.  The production difference is not worth the asking costs in dollars or players.  Casas sounds a lot like a left-handed Jose Miranda, though a little more consistent.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

Power hitting first baseman with defensive liabilities are a dime a dozen. Casas so far has put up 1.7 WAR in his best season. Any GM who trades Ober or Ryan for Casas should be fired. 

He was a rookie & then played 63 games in his two seasons. Expecting more than 1.7 WAR from a mediocre defensive player seems unreasonable. His average OPS is .830 - that works for me at the league minimum.

Duran & Matthews should work for the Red Sox.

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, jimmyc said:

Triston Casas was not traded for a quality pitcher for the same reason that Pete Alonzo is still waiting for a free-agent contract.  The production difference is not worth the asking costs in dollars or players.  Casas sounds a lot like a left-handed Jose Miranda, though a little more consistent.

With considerably more power.

[KBJ1]

Our BP is hardly a strength with 3 guys coming off injury and zero leftys.

We are going to miss Santana's Gold glove at 1B.

Offer them Matthew's or SWR or take a hike.

 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Duran & Matthews should work for the Red Sox.

Matthews is worth the same as Casas right now. He had a meteoric rise through the minor leagues last season and found out in a rough fashion what he needs to work on now this year in AAA in order to stick in an MLB rotation. In another year Matthews will be similar to Woo or Miller (Seattle pitchers). Breslow would take Matthews for Casas right now. Of course if the Twins want to help a former Twin (Breslow) they could send Duran too. You are right though, Boston would love that deal.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What if they do this AND trade for someone like Cease? Would that change your mind?

Sounds nice BUT one has to execute the additional high level pitcher trade AND you have 1 year of that pitcher v. the control with Ryan & Ober………the one year of availability is what sours me more.

Duran & Matthews for Casas seems attractive and fair for both sides - close? 

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Matthews is worth the same as Casas right now. He had a meteoric rise through the minor leagues last season and found out in a rough fashion what he needs to work on now this year in AAA in order to stick in an MLB rotation. In another year Matthews will be similar to Woo or Miller (Seattle pitchers). Breslow would take Matthews for Casas right now. Of course if the Twins want to help a former Twin (Breslow) they could send Duran too. You are right though, Boston would love that deal.

“In another year Matthews will be similar to Woo or Miller…” - that’s a really bold statement! Haven’t heard anything like that about Zebby. MAYBE in 2 years, IMO - he’s got some real development left to do. To your point on value, should Twins start with an offer of Matthews and Henriquez and maneuver from there?

[MinnInPa]

52 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I would trade SWR for Casas straight up.  But not Ober or Ryan.  Maybe Mathews and another mid prospect.

i would luv that deal 

[Doctor Gast]

BOS fans like Casas, but IMO he's overrated & at the same time Miranda is underrated & needs time at 1B. Get someone who can support him not take over. Keep Ryan, Ober & Miranda, we'd be a better team. 

[Gamblerssoftball]

Why are so many people willing to throw Duran in on a deal? Good grief, I wouldn't swap 'em one for one.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

“In another year Matthews will be similar to Woo or Miller…” - that’s a really bold statement! Haven’t heard anything like that about Zebby. MAYBE in 2 years, IMO - he’s got some real development left to do. To your point on value, should Twins start with an offer of Matthews and Henriquez and maneuver from there?

I'm (admittedly) high on Matthews. I'm suggesting he could be where Woo and Miller were last year in two years (one at AAA, one in MLB rotation). He does have to develop more movement on the edges, which is really similar to what both Woo and Miller did.

I'm not feeling a fit for a trade for Casas. I love his power and bat. He is similar to Wallner, although Wallner has better speed and should be able to improve enough to be close to an average outfielder. (I will note here that if Emmanuel Rodriguez is real and Walker Jenkins arrives next year, Wallner gets pushed to DH most likely.) The problem with Casas is similar to too many current Twins - the glove is below average to poor. I find it ironic that people go off on Julien for his defense, a criticism he has earned, but give a pass to Lewis and Miranda and then want to add a guy like Casas. The goal should be to balance the team in order to reduce the players who cannot play defense, are slow, and who strike out too much. I agree that bats are needed but am holding out for better. If Duran is a topic for trading, ask Milwaukee to send Jeferson Quero over. That seems fair.

[Blyleven2011]

Nick , you better shake those feelings  ....

But if we could swap Duran and hendrique for casta , I'd be okay with that , we seem to have a surplus of relief pitchers on paper at least  ...