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    Why the First Half of 2025 is the Most Pivotal Point in Twins History


    Cody Christie

    There’s no question about it. The first half of the 2025 season is the most critical opportunity in the Twins' history. Here’s why.

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

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    The Minnesota Twins are approaching a crossroads. As pitchers and catchers prepare to report to spring training, the looming 2025 season is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in franchise history. It’s not just about the wins and losses on the field, because big decisions are also happening off of it. The potential arrival of new ownership, coupled with the scars of a 2024 collapse and the pivotal midseason trade deadline, makes the first half of this season a defining moment for the Twins.

    The Ownership Domino
    For months, the speculation has been swirling. The Twins’ ownership situation is poised for a seismic shift. Rumors have pointed to the Ishbia brothers as frontrunners to take over the franchise, but they are not the only suitors vying to purchase the team. Whoever ends up in control will not only shape the organization's financial future, but set the tone for its competitive aspirations.

    If the sale is finalized early in the season, as many expect, the new ownership group will have its first opportunity to make a splash at the trade deadline. Traditionally, the Twins have operated with a relatively conservative budget, but new owners could alter that dynamic overnight. Will they open the purse strings for a blockbuster addition? Will they green-light trading top prospects to improve the current roster? These are questions that the team’s first-half performance will heavily influence.

    Exorcising the Ghosts of 2024
    The Twins’ collapse in the second half of the 2024 season still lingers like a dark cloud over Target Field. On Sept. 5, FanGraohs playoff odds gave the Twins a 95.4% chance of making the playoffs. The team went 6-16 the rest of the way, and ultimately missed the postseason. 

    Compounding the disappointment was the team’s slow start to the 2024 campaign, which made their midseason surge feel like an uphill battle. The club lost 13 of their first 20 games, while Cleveland jumped out to a hot start. Minnesota couldn’t track them down. 

    The Twins can’t afford to fall into that trap this year. A strong first half would position them for playoff contention and erase the sour taste of last season’s meltdown. Players like Pablo López, who struggled early in 2024 before finding his groove, need to set the tone from Day 1. López is critical to the Twins avoiding the early-season pitfalls that plagued them a year ago.

    The Trade Deadline X-Factor
    If the Twins find themselves in contention by July, the trade deadline will serve as a litmus test for the organization’s ambitions. For years, the Twins have walked a tightrope, balancing the desire to build a sustainable talent pipeline with the need to make bold moves to compete in the present. Last season, the Twins stood pat at the deadline, and one has to wonder if that contributed to the team’s second-half collapse. New ownership could tip the scales.

    Imagine the possibilities: With the proper support from ownership, the front office could pursue impact players who would ordinarily be out of their price range. Adding a marquee bat to the middle of the lineup or a frontline starting pitcher to pair with López could vault the Twins from fringe contenders to legitimate threats in the American League. 

    But those moves only make sense if the team positions itself well in the first half. Falling out of contention early could lead to a vastly different approach at the deadline, with the team focused on selling off veteran pieces rather than adding talent. The Twins have multiple veterans on expiring contracts, including Chris Paddack, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro. If Minnesota is out of contention, the trio will likely be in different uniforms in August. 

    A Franchise-Defining Stretch
    The 2025 season’s first half is not only about winning games. It’s about redefining what it means to be a Minnesota Twin. The convergence of new ownership, a pivotal trade deadline, and the need to bounce back from 2024’s failures creates a sense of urgency, unlike anything the franchise has faced in decades.

    For fans, this is a moment to rally behind a team on the brink of transformation. For players, it’s a chance to prove that last year’s collapse was an anomaly. And for the front office, it’s an opportunity to seize the moment and show the potential of a team with the proper backing.

    With spring training on the horizon, the stakes have never been higher. The Twins’ future isn’t just about what happens on the field, because what happens off the field is just as important. And it all starts with the most critical first half in franchise history.


    How important is the first half of 2025? Is it one of the most pivotal points in franchise history? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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    I'm wondering which top prospects you are willing to trade? Are we talking top 30? 20? 10? 3? Can anyone think of a realistic trade where the Twins part with Walker Jenkins? There are several laughers on BTV where a team empties the scrubs on their team off to Minnesota and magically pick up Jenkins. What possible player would people want for Jenkins? Rodriguez? Keaschall?

    Falvey is free to make trades right now if he feels the team would be better off with a transaction or two. I'm hopeful for a positive vibe from the exchange of ownership but I'm not seeing it much differently than 1984, which was ok.

    I can imagine a few more pivotal moments for the franchise, including the first World Series year to establish legitimacy in the Dome, overcoming the contraction threat in the early 2000s with a winning team of piranhas and making the shift to an outdoor stadium. But I get what you're saying - the shift from the Pohlad era will be something to watch.

    I just don't think the Twins will be very good this year, and things might look pretty flat even as early as Memorial Day. If I'm right, I'm curious to see if the new owners become more hands-on in terms of calling for midseason coaching changes and either holding the roster steady for 2026 or pushing the FO for a teardown and rebuild at the trade deadline. 

    Spring training can't arrive soon enough.  We've gone through weeks of "what if" articles because nothing has happened that's worth talking about.  No one's even mentioned that the lowly Dodgers signed Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates.  I sure hope they don't go over their $130M budget this year.

    We have had two families own the franchise going back to the early days in Washington.  Both had well earned reputations as penny pinchers, but both gave us the occasional winner and kept the team going.  With the exception of Carl P. wishing he could cash out through contraction, no threats of leaving have been seriously attempted since they moved here from Washington.  Coming here from Washington, moving into the dome from Metropolitan stadium, changing ownership from the Griffiths to the Pohlads, moving across the city to Target Field, and now selling the team after 40 years to only the 3rd owner in, what, close to a century?  There have been a lot of pivotal years in Twins history, this being right up there (in my top 5), but THE most pivotal?  I think the jury is still out on that one.  What might move the needle to the top of the list is what direction any new owner(s) take from here on out.  Will it be just another business investment for a billionaire, or will it be something the owner(s) will truly be interested in and willing to put more into?  The latter would be the needle mover to me.  Let's hope Cody turns out to be right. 😉

    Nice article.  Interesting thoughts.  Other than the potential for new owners, which is huge, it still is just the Twins.  Same old boring baseball.  They talk about a winning windows.  What winning windows?  They've missed the playoffs 3 of last 4 years.  Twice they choked it away.  If we get new owners they need to dump Falvey and Baldelli .

    5 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

    If we get new owners they need to dump Falvey and Baldelli .

    Cosign. They've accomplished nothing but a fluke year in a juiced ball season. And the team and farm are in such a mediocre state currently. 

    7 years is plenty to determine Falvey just doesn't have the sauce. And Rocco pinch hit Margot so frequently that he set a major league record in futility. 

    New Owners, New Organization. 

    I guess I don't understand what a good start has to do with selling the team. Owners are not idiots and going to spend a couple of billion dollars based on 20, 30, 40 games. Now it is probably super important for the FO since this will be their 9th year and have 1 playoff series win, new owners might want some fresh blood and in all reality would they be leaving a team in a better position then they inherited?

    It is probably important to be good to fill the stands in the summer, because IMO if the Wild and Wolves make runs in the playoffs and the Twins are below .500 and playing boring baseball, well it might be hard to get people to target field.

    Last season we still had a great core & Lopez was searching for his path in the early '24 season but that wasn't the cause of our collapse in the beginning. Falvey made it very clear after the '23 postseason that his all-or-nothing approach was the reason for the team's success, even though the main contributors down that stretch did not adhere to that philosophy. They stressed that they were sticking to focus on that approach & the record amount Ks was not a problem. The reason for the team's early slump was the league's drastic adjusting to our approach resulting in a lack of offense- Miranda, Kiriloff & Correa were mashing but Margot, Santana & Farmer were horrid, Vazquez was improving but was not good. The whole team was bad & Lewis was gone. What saved us was Baldelli's change of hitting direction to a less SO-prone one. 

    I agree that that slump put us behind the eight ball to win the division but we still had most of the '23 core together that kept us in the hunt for the wildcard. But not filling the holes at SP & LHRP drained our rotation & BP resulting in poorer performances. Miranda & Kirilof's mashing was gone due to not playing them at 1B thus keeping them healthy & productive but instead putting them into positions where they had to really work their shoulders & landing them on the IL. The lack of chemistry plunged them into a nosedive that nobody could correct.

    '25 depends again on making the right trades. Do we trade for a very promising young MLB-ready catcher to aid this ailing prime position? Do we trade the right players that can be replaced to help the club? Or do we trade away players that we really need & hard to replace (Castro, Vazquez, Lopez, Correa, Buxton, Ober, or Ryan)? Why do I get that sick feeling that Falvey will be "creative" again? Trading away players we desperately need to acquire players we do not, taking up valuable active roster spots from our well-deserving players who need the playing time to better themselves & the team. How does adding a player for one year help the team the following year? With this kind of move, we don't have worry about making the playoffs. I don't care how we look on paper, we'll be out of it before we get started.

     

    I think what's most likely is we'll be out of contention by the trade deadline. Buxton, Lewis and Correa will miraculously get hurt and sit out the second half and the team will trade off veterans on expiring contracts. If new ownership is going to raise payroll and make a splash, I think it would happen next off-season. New owners, new payroll and clean slate. Can't come soon enough!

    I like the article angle, but I think the importance of this season is not because of on-field issues, which every team has every season, but the off-field issues:

    -When does the team sell?  If reports are true, and the team sells within the next few months, what steps do the new owners take?  Invest capital to improve the team?  Trade everyone and rebuild?  Do they keep the administration, or do they go out and get different people?  This is, by far, the single most important item to impact this team since the contraction discussion.

    -What is the impact of the new broadcasting deal?  Does the potential increased viewership create a long-term capital base for this team?  Does it blow up in their face?  What are the secondary impacts that may come from this (merchandise, ticket sales, advertising)?

    -How does the CBA expiring after 2026 impact the Twins view of longer term deals?  Do they try to lock up their younger players not knowing what changes are on the horizon?

    Regarding on-field issues, this is really a make-or-break season for many players:
    Miranda, Julien, Varland, Topa, and Paddack are playing for their Twins life
    Wallner, Castro, Larnach, Sands, and SWR need to prove last year was not a fluke and they belong
    Lee, Martin, Festa, Matthews, and Kiersey need to play well enough to not get run over by the incoming players behind them

    28 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    I like the article angle, but I think the importance of this season is not because of on-field issues, which every team has every season, but the off-field issues:

    -When does the team sell?  If reports are true, and the team sells within the next few months, what steps do the new owners take?  Invest capital to improve the team?  Trade everyone and rebuild?  Do they keep the administration, or do they go out and get different people?  This is, by far, the single most important item to impact this team since the contraction discussion.

    -What is the impact of the new broadcasting deal?  Does the potential increased viewership create a long-term capital base for this team?  Does it blow up in their face?  What are the secondary impacts that may come from this (merchandise, ticket sales, advertising)?

    -How does the CBA expiring after 2026 impact the Twins view of longer term deals?  Do they try to lock up their younger players not knowing what changes are on the horizon?

    Regarding on-field issues, this is really a make-or-break season for many players:
    Miranda, Julien, Varland, Topa, and Paddack are playing for their Twins life
    Wallner, Castro, Larnach, Sands, and SWR need to prove last year was not a fluke and they belong
    Lee, Martin, Festa, Matthews, and Kiersey need to play well enough to not get run over by the incoming players behind them

    Agreed, with a little more emphasis on on field performance impacting everything else in the short term. This year's team is the "Falvey" team - most of the players are ones his regime drafted or got in trades and he owns the minor league players. The payroll restrictions hurt but not enough to prevent this regime from fielding a competitive team in a weaker division. If they are not competitive in the first half and new ownership takes over by mid-season, I would expect to see at least a managerial change and a full house cleaning next off season.  

    The bigger long term issues are the financial resources new ownership is willing to invest, how to broadcast the team, and how to rebuild enthusiasm in the fan base. To be blunt, this franchise has little chance for long term success without ownership investment beyond what a prudent businessman only interested in profit would make. The market is too small and the local economy isn't dynamic enough to compete with the big boys if the team is simply run like a business. To make this work, an owner needs to see the team as a hobby and, even more importantly, needs to get 2.5 - 3 million butts in the seats over the course of the year. 

    I agree that this is a critical year in the franchise's history. The change in ownership gives us a fighting chance that we now don't have. 

    I doubt the new Twins owners move on from Falvey.  I do think Our manager is on the hot seat.  But the Twins overall are historically better then the Twins have been over their cumulative history under Falvey.  The Minnesota Twins overall have a below .500 record and have a .519 win % under Falvey.  620-574.  I think he will still be here after the Twins are sold.  I wonder what they could do with a 180 million payroll.  

    People seem to forget how bad the team was for the 8-9 years prior to Falvey coming over. They just want to fire everyone and trade all the players. There was only 1 year where the team had a almost go for it attitude from ownership. You notice it was only one year before they were told to cut payroll and the team was put up for sale.

    Or maybe the Pohlads gave up when they saw the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees spending like drunken bandits with payrolls over $300mil. They never really loosened the purse strings and the Team was entirely dependent on developing the farm system. They signed a couple of players. Mostly Correa and traded for Lopez. There was never any $50-75 million thrown in from ownership. The Twins young players would have to collectively turn into super stars to compete with the Dodgers.

    This may be an important year,  but only for someone to buy the team and throwing way millions of dollars to compete against the Yankees and Red Sox from a spending perspective. Otherwise maybe no one will want to jump into the ownership zoo.

    I don't know if it's the "most pivotal point in Twins history," but it's certainly a very big moment. Any ownership change is. It's also a pivot point for the Twins roster. Decisions need to be made on the direction of this team.

    I doubt the new ownership comes in and clears house. If it's the Ishbia brothers, then their recent history with the Suns would show that they don't fire people at the jump just to get "their own people" in there. They likely don't have "their own people." But maybe their partial ownership of the White Sox has given them relationships throughout the league and they have someone in mind. I'd doubt it, though. If they do come in and fire everyone straight away I'm going to be pretty worried as the smarter thing is to take the season to assess the organization you just acquired instead of just moving on from vital pieces without an inside look at things. Get to know your new team and the league and make an educated decision on Falvey and his team and how they fit into your vision. I'd expect Falvey to be replaced at the top of the business side pretty quickly, but not the baseball side. 

    On the field the Twins have been in a bit of a holding pattern on a number of players for a few years now. Decisions need to be made. Maybe by the trade deadline. Is Larnach part of your future? What's your catching plan? Is Miranda part of the future? Wallner? Julien? Are Ryan, Ober, and Lopez all going to play out their contracts here or is it better to cash out on one of them as they approach free agency? Can you afford Correa with whatever budget you're going to set? Is Lewis worthy of a cornerstone spot or is he Buxton 2.0 who'll always need a "backup" to fill-in for half the season? Each of these questions (and more I didn't list) have impact on other decisions outside of the direct question. 

    So, I fully agree that it's a very important point in Twins history. And it'd be ideal if new owners can be in place early in the season to start their assessment and future planning. Exciting times off the field for the Twins and hopefully the team can make it fun on the field, too.

    13 hours ago, Mark G said:

    We have had two families own the franchise going back to the early days in Washington.  Both had well earned reputations as penny pinchers, but both gave us the occasional winner and kept the team going.  With the exception of Carl P. wishing he could cash out through contraction, no threats of leaving have been seriously attempted since they moved here from Washington.  Coming here from Washington, moving into the dome from Metropolitan stadium, changing ownership from the Griffiths to the Pohlads, moving across the city to Target Field, and now selling the team after 40 years to only the 3rd owner in, what, close to a century?  There have been a lot of pivotal years in Twins history, this being right up there (in my top 5), but THE most pivotal?  I think the jury is still out on that one.  What might move the needle to the top of the list is what direction any new owner(s) take from here on out.  Will it be just another business investment for a billionaire, or will it be something the owner(s) will truly be interested in and willing to put more into?  The latter would be the needle mover to me.  Let's hope Cody turns out to be right. 😉

    TWINS history is 64 years ……… considerable amount of time relative to MLB but not really approaching a Century.

    I’ve lived in Cincinnati for 34 years but still appreciate my upbringing in Minnesota…..sure seems this “most pivotal point in Twin’s history” stuff is grossly overstated. Maybe if you’re 26 years old it may seem that way but regardless of the level of importance it seems this is a very dramatic take on this years Team & potential activities around this year’s Team.

    It totally depends on when new ownership takes over. If the Twins have new owners by mid-season, then the first half is pretty important. Staying in contention would at least let us see how new ownership will be different than the Pohlads at the trade deadline. If the Twins don't get new owners until later in the season, I think that next off season will tell us a lot about the future of the team.

    9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    TWINS history is 64 years ……… considerable amount of time relative to MLB but not really approaching a Century.

    I’ve lived in Cincinnati for 34 years but still appreciate my upbringing in Minnesota…..sure seems this “most pivotal point in Twin’s history” stuff is grossly overstated. Maybe if you’re 26 years old it may seem that way but regardless of the level of importance it seems this is a very dramatic take on this years Team & potential activities around this year’s Team.

    Twins history yes, franchise history no, and the franchise is what I was talking about.  In any major league sport a franchise that has had only two family ownerships and one franchise move in about a century is very rare; my point was that it is impossible for me to pick any one year in its history as THE pivotal year.  I don't separate the Twins from the franchise because the same owners owned the franchise in both areas; what they did in Washington naturally spilled over into MN after the move, just as everything the Pohlads have done will spill over onto whoever the new owners are going to be (or is that whomever? :) )

    Anyway, I was only trying to say that I believe we are a rare commodity in sports, having had consistent, if not necessarily wonderful, ownership and a very lengthy run in MLB.  Therefore I find it very hard to pick any one pivotal year, although as I said before, it is in my top 5.  

    By the way, I am not anywhere near 26; I was 11 during the '65 World Series which is when I fell in love with baseball and the Twins.  🫠



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