How Pablo López Can Break His Cycle of Slow Starts

Pablo López has shown two very different sides over the past two seasons. During the first half, he’s struggled to find his rhythm, with inconsistencies impacting the Twins’ early record. But by the second half, it’s as if a switch flips, and he becomes one of the team’s most reliable arms, often showcasing ace-level performance. To maximize his impact across the entire season, here are some ways López might avoid the spring slumps that have defined his time in Minnesota so far.

1. Sweeping Struggles Under the Rug
López’s sweeper has the potential to be one of his most dangerous pitches, but batters teed off on that pitch in 2024, with a slugging percentage over .500 in the first two months. One key to his success in the second half has been his ability to hit his spots with his secondary pitches. If López can start the season with that level of control, it will prevent him from getting into deep counts and forcing him to rely too much on his other pitches before settling into the game.

Preseason bullpen work could be his best opportunity to refine his control. Working on using both edges of the plate more aggressively in spring training games and getting into a rhythm with his catching duo should set him up to control counts earlier and avoid those “giveaway” at-bats that seemed to haunt him in April.

2. Embracing Offseason Routine Adjustments
Each offseason, pitchers work through a series of programs to build up strength and endurance, but some adjustments to his routine may give López an edge. Last winter, he went to Driveline Baseball shortly after the season ended to be assessed coming off a strong season. Emphasizing shorter, higher-intensity throwing sessions instead of simply focusing on endurance could help him avoid that feeling of “playing catch-up” in early April. A more intense approach to offseason training, with more precise workload management, could keep him from slipping into early season inconsistencies.

In particular, López could lean into strategies that mimic game situations, whether simulating counts, pitch types, or specific in-game adjustments. By replicating high-leverage situations in his training regimen, he could build up confidence and muscle memory, making his second-half form the starting point for 2025.

3. Prioritizing the Changeup Early
López’s changeup has been his calling card, especially as the season progresses. As the second half of both seasons has shown, his changeup becomes even more deceptive when he’s in peak form. Last season, batters posted a .281 batting average versus his changeup, the highest total of his career. Still, that pitch had a lower exit velocity, producing a slugging percentage over 50 points lower than in 2023. Implementing it more deliberately from the start could give him a stable foundation to rely on while he builds up his fastball confidence and other breaking pitches.

His ability to generate soft contact and prevent hard-hit balls by leaning on the changeup early could prevent hitters from sitting on his fastball, which may keep him in better counts. Last season, he held batters to a .540 OPS when he was ahead in the count. If he deploys this weapon strategically in the early months, it could make his entire pitch mix more effective

4. Incorporating In-Game Adjustments Sooner
López has struggled early in games, especially in the first inning. Last season, batters hit .244/.282/.480 against him in the first frame, including eight home runs, the most he allowed in any inning. From the 2nd through the 3rd inning, he allowed a slugging percentage of .397 or lower. There must be something too predictable about his pitch mix in the first inning that makes it easier for opponents to focus on one pitch or area of the zone and make hard contact.  

One of López’s biggest strengths is his adaptability, especially in the latter part of the season, where he’s shown he can pivot mid-game or mid-season. Learning to embrace those adjustments sooner might allow him to avoid prolonged slumps altogether. For example, López has often tinkered with his pitch sequencing as the season wears on; if he can fast-track this process, it may allow him to keep hitters off-balance earlier in the year.

If López can hit the ground running and avoid those typical slow starts, he could elevate the Twins’ rotation to a new level. Avoiding the early-season slump will require physical and mental adjustments, but López has already proven he’s more than capable. The key for him may lie in getting out of his own way and letting his second-half ace mentality shine from the start.

What’s the most significant issue keeping López from performing well in the season’s early months? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.