How Pablo López Can Break His Cycle of Slow Starts

[Cody Christie]

Over the last two seasons, fans have seen the best and the worst of Pablo López. Can the team’s ace find a way to avoid his early season struggles?

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Pablo López has shown two very different sides over the past two seasons. During the first half, he’s struggled to find his rhythm, with inconsistencies impacting the Twins’ early record. But by the second half, it’s as if a switch flips, and he becomes one of the team’s most reliable arms, often showcasing ace-level performance. To maximize his impact across the entire season, here are some ways López might avoid the early-season slump that has defined his time in Minnesota so far.

1. Sweeping Struggles Under the Rug
López’s sweeper has the potential to be one of his most dangerous pitches, but batters teed off on that pitch in 2024 with a slugging percentage over .500 in the first two months. One key to his success in the second half has been his ability to hit his spots with his secondary pitches. If López can start the season with that level of control, it will prevent him from getting into deep counts and forcing him to rely too much on his other pitches before settling into the game.

Preseason bullpen work could be his best opportunity to refine his control. Working on using both edges of the plate more aggressively in spring training games and getting into a rhythm with his catching duo should set him up to control counts earlier and avoid those “giveaway” at-bats that seemed to haunt him in April.

2. Embracing Offseason Routine Adjustments
Each offseason, pitchers work through a series of programs to build up strength and endurance, but some adjustments to his routine may give López an edge. Last winter, he went to Driveline Baseball shortly after the season ended to be assessed while coming off a strong season.  Emphasizing shorter, higher-intensity throwing sessions instead of simply focusing on endurance could help him avoid that feeling of “playing catch-up” in early April. A more intense approach to offseason training, with more precise workload management, could keep him from slipping into early season inconsistencies.

In particular, López could lean into strategies that mimic game situations, whether simulating counts, pitch types, or specific in-game adjustments. By replicating high-leverage situations in his training regimen, he could build up confidence and muscle memory, making his second-half form the starting point for 2025.

3. Prioritizing the Changeup Early
López’s changeup has been his calling card, especially as the season progresses. As the second half of both seasons has shown, his changeup becomes even more deceptive when he’s in peak form. Last season, batters posted a .281 BA versus his changeup, the highest total of his career. Still, that pitch had a lower exit velocity, producing a slugging percentage over 50 points lower than in 2023. Implementing it more deliberately from the start could give him a stable foundation to rely on while he builds up his fastball confidence and other breaking pitches.

His ability to generate soft contact and prevent hard-hit balls by leaning on the changeup early could prevent hitters from sitting on his fastball, which may keep him in better counts. Last season, he held batters to a .540 OPS when he was ahead in the count. If he deploys this weapon strategically in the early months, it could make his entire pitch mix more effective

4. Incorporating In-Game Adjustments Sooner
López has struggled early in games, especially in the first inning. Last season, batters hit .244/.282/.480 (.762) against him in the first frame, including eight home runs, the most he allowed in any inning. From the 2nd through the 3rd inning, he allowed a slugging percentage of .397 or lower. There must be something too predictable about his pitch mix in the first inning that makes it easier for opponents to focus on one pitch or area of the zone and make hard contact.  

One of López’s biggest strengths is his adaptability, especially in the latter part of the season, where he’s shown he can pivot mid-game or mid-season. Learning to embrace those adjustments sooner might allow him to avoid prolonged slumps altogether. For example, López has often tinkered with his pitch sequencing as the season wears on; if he can fast-track this process, it may allow him to keep hitters off-balance earlier in the year.

If López can hit the ground running and avoid those typical slow starts, he could elevate the Twins’ rotation to a new level. Avoiding the early-season slump will require physical and mental adjustments, but López has already proven he’s more than capable. The key for him may lie in getting out of his own way and letting his second-half ace mentality shine from the start.

What’s the most significant issue keeping López from performing well in the season’s early months? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[tony&rodney]

Pablo is a pretty consistent pitcher. He has his ups and downs but is good for close to 200 innings a season. Love his enthusiasm, humility, and work ethic, plus he certainly has the build to stay strong. I'm hoping Lopez has a long run with the Twins but if he were to be traded, the return should be quite strong. 

[bean5302]

I don't see anything to suggest Lopez typically starts slow. Furthermore, his location was better than average and his fastball, sinker and slider all graded out better through April than they did the rest of the year in Stuff+. Lopez's change up stunk to start the year. Stuff+ 78 vs. 98 on the overall season. He threw that changeup 20% of the time through April and an identical 20% for the rest of the year. 

Through April vs. Through Rest of Year
2024 = 4.83 ERA, 3.96 FIP vs. 3.92 ERA, 3.58 FIP
2023 = 4.00 ERA, 2.87 FIP vs. 3.59 ERA, 3.44 FIP
2022 =0.39 ERA, 1.66 FIP  vs. 4.25 ERA, 4.02 FIP
2021 = 2.34 ERA, 3.20 FIP vs. 3.44 ERA, 3.33 FIP
2020 = NA
2019 = 4.78 ERA, 3.09 FIP vs. 5.22 ERA, 4.76 FIP

This article seems to be attempting to diagnose a problem that doesn't exist and then hypothesize a solution for the non-existent problem.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't see anything to suggest Lopez typically starts slow. Furthermore, his location was better than average and his fastball, sinker and slider all graded out better through April than they did the rest of the year in Stuff+. Lopez's change up stunk to start the year. Stuff+ 78 vs. 98 on the overall season. He threw that changeup 20% of the time through April and an identical 20% for the rest of the year. 

Through April vs. Through Rest of Year
2024 = 4.83 ERA, 3.96 FIP vs. 3.92 ERA, 3.58 FIP
2023 = 4.00 ERA, 2.87 FIP vs. 3.59 ERA, 3.44 FIP
2022 =0.39 ERA, 1.66 FIP  vs. 4.25 ERA, 4.02 FIP
2021 = 2.34 ERA, 3.20 FIP vs. 3.44 ERA, 3.33 FIP
2020 = NA
2019 = 4.78 ERA, 3.09 FIP vs. 5.22 ERA, 4.76 FIP

This article seems to be attempting to diagnose a problem that doesn't exist and then hypothesize a solution for the non-existent problem.

Hard for me to judge Lopez (or other Twins pitchers for that matter) until there are a couple more gloves who are at least average or better behind him. 

[Parfigliano]

When title of the article said avoid slow starts I thought you were referring to his giving up early runs in games then settling in to his groove.

[mnfireman]

It's almost as if the ball moves differently in April compared to September....

[DocBauer]

It's always been said that the changeup is a "feel" pitch. I've always taken that as feeling good with your grip and arm slot, but also being sure not to overthrow it. Perhaps colder weather earlier in the season has been responsible for some of his issues. Or maybe he just needs to throw it a little more in ST to work the kinks out?

I'm not expert on many of the peripheral measurements of pitchers. But it's my understanding that most of his peripherals were showing better than the final results were in games. In other words, the EXPECTED results were better than the actual results. It seemed as though all the hits and XBH were lumped in to a single inning, versus being more scattered across multiple innings. He'd cruise for a couple innings, allow 3 runs, and then look good again the next few innings. So I'm wondering if his sequencing might need to be changed up a little, no pun intended.

His "ON" switch flipped a little later in 2024 than 2023, but he's pretty much been a legitimate top of the rotation starter for about 2/3 of each season. I don't know how to get him more effective early, but if they can find some tweaks to make it happen, that lifts the entire rotation to another level.

[Karbo]

Its a problem as old as the game itself. Some guys are just slow starters. I'm pretty sure a part of his early "problems" have a lot to do with temps in the spring. Having played some ball myself in this god-forsaken frozen tundra we call home, (why do we live here again?) I know how hard it is to get a good grip in the cold, and I was an infielder. I can't imagine trying to get a grip well enough to be able to spin the ball like he does.

[LambchoP]

Lopez is our ace. Now that he's getting paid like one, we really need him to be our number 1 guy. Assuming health, and even minor improvements from Over and Ryan, we have a really good 1-3. I could see SWR going either way this year. Sophomore slump now that the scouting reports are out, maybe injuries. Or, he could build on the success of this year and be a solid number 4, which would be huge. Our number 5 starter is what worries me. Paddack will probably be gone, even if we do keep him he's a liability most days. Festa looked decent most days, but he's not quite ready. Mathews needs even more time in the minors since he jumped three levels last year. Raya-, Adams, Lewis and Culpeper all could be good pitchers, or they could never make the bigs. Either way, they're always away. We need one more starter, a vet who can stay healthy and give our young pitchers the time they need in St Paul to get themselves right.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Lopez is our ace. Now that he's getting paid like one, we really need him to be our number 1 guy. 

Did they give him an offseason raise? He's getting #2/3 starter money, not ace money.

[bean5302]

38 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Did they give him an offseason raise? He's getting #2/3 starter money, not ace money.

Lopez wasn't a free agent when the Twins extended him. Lopez was still basically under team control for 2 years when the contract was signed so of course he didn't get free agent value. He's making very close to ace money given the team control scenario.