Could the Twins Make a Late Play for Red Sox Slugger Triston Casas?

[TopGunn#22]

I appreciate this article and do not feel it offers only comedic value.  It's winter in Minnesota.  This is the Hot Stove.  Articles like this are precisely why we come to TD.  The writer isn't trying to answer all questions.  He's giving us a topic and all of us can chime in with a "take."

I have incomplete BBTV data because I refuse to pay for the site.  However, in my notes, I've listed Casas as having a value of 29.9 for the sake of discussion.  I also do not have values for Ryan or Ober but in no circumstance would I give up either of them for a "bat only" 1B.  I imagine this is why Seattle rebuffed the Red Sox on multiple occasions. 

I also do not have the value for SWR.  But if Festa is a 20.0 and Zebby Matthews is a 16.0 I would place SWR at 18.0.  That's who I would begin discussions with Boston.  So to come up with a deal, the Twins would need another 12 points of value.  I have advocated exploring trade options for SWR a number of times this off season.  He's solid and steady, but doesn't have the upside of Festa.

The Red Sox rotation as it stands today is Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler and Kutter Crawford.  There are questions surrounding each of their #3, #4 and #5 guys.  They also have very little depth, with a huge injury question mark surrounding Lucas Giolito. 

SWR would be just what they are looking for.  Someone solid and dependable for the #3-#5 spot in the rotation.  SWR is only 24 years old.  Paddack only has a value of 3.7 so that just wouldn't be enough.  The Red Sox #2 rated prospect is a 2B, so they wouldn't be interested in Julien (16.5) and he and Miranda (16.2) would be an overpay unless the Red Sox sent something else back to even up the trade.

But I like the idea of putting a 25 year old slugger in the middle of our lineup.  Casas has a similar offensive profile to Matt Wallner.  But with Correa, Buxton and Lewis, there are plenty of RH hitters to split them up.  If the price to get Casas is NOT Ryan or Ober and begins with SWR, I'm all for it.       

[mluebker]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What if they do this AND trade for someone like Cease? Would that change your mind?

How many injury-prone and/or mediocre defenders do the Twins need in the infield these days?

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm (admittedly) high on Matthews. I'm suggesting he could be where Woo and Miller were last year in two years (one at AAA, one in MLB rotation. He does have to develop more movement on the edges, which is really similar to what both Woo and Miller did.

I'm not feeling a fit for a trade for Casas. I love his power and bat. He is similar to Wallner, although Wallner has better speed and should be able to improve enough to be close to an average outfielder. (I will note here that if Emmanuel Rodriguez is real and Walker Jenkins arrives next year, Wallner gets pushed to DH most likely.) The problem with Casas is similar to too many current Twins - the glove is below average to poor. I find it ironic that people go off on Julien for his defense, a criticism he has earned, but give a pass to Lewis and Miranda and then want to add a guy like Casas. The goal should be to balance the team in order to reduce the players who cannot play defense, are slow, and who strike out too much. I agree that bats are needed but am holding out for better. If Duran is a topic for trading, ask Milwaukee to send Jeferson Quero over. That seems fair.

After last 6 weeks of ‘24, spreading the offensive load amongst more capable bats is what I see as the TEAM’s logical goal. Frankly, I don’t care about …..when Emma & Walker are on the roster…,, they aren’t now, and may not really both contribute until 2027. Lots of water under the bridge for our pitchers and key vets between now and then! Team can always move somebody from a position of strength (that has actually been achieved) in another year or two. If not mortgaging the future, try to WIN NOW!

Quero may be a great option - I am not familiar with him?

[SF Twins Fan]

I'd rather the Twins use their pitching depth to trade for a good catching prospect than a bat only 1st basemen. 

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

After last 6 weeks of ‘24, spreading the offensive load amongst more capable bats is what I see as the TEAM’s logical goal. Frankly, I don’t care about …..when Emma & Walker are on the roster…,, they aren’t now, and may not really both contribute until 2027. Lots of water under the bridge for our pitchers and key vets between now and then! Team can always move somebody from a position of strength (that has actually been achieved) in another year or two. If not mortgaging the future, try to WIN NOW!

Quero may be a great option - I am not familiar with him?

I totally understand wanting to win now. Me too. Like I said previously, I do like Casas with a bat in his hands. I'm just not seeing any deal that works for the Twins at this time. 

Jeferson Quero is a catcher in the Milwaukee system. He was expected to debut last year but was injured sliding back into first base and needed surgery. He is likely needing a little time to knock the rust off but otherwise ready for MLB. Quero grades as a 70 defensive catcher. He is the only catcher that has that tag. He is really outstanding behind the plate and has hit well in the minor leagues. The risk on Quero is medium/low. The risk on Casas is high/medium as a comparison.

[old nurse]

Boston once signed a left handed first baseman with injury issues and ad defense. It worked out pretty well for them. I would guess that they are hoping someone will overpay with a frontline starter.  I wouldn’t think that is going to happen without a top prospect thrown in. Pitching is and always has een in hort supply. A back of the rotation starter is more likely to e what they could get. I wouldn’t think someone like Festa might be a good as they get. The Sox need to find a team that doesn’t consider injury history. 

Edited February 4, 2025 by Nick Nelson
edited out an unintentional/unfortunate typo

[bean5302]

Triston Casas is just a guy as far as I'm concerned. Take him out of Fenway, and poof.

Career line: .250/.357/.473 OPS .830 as a lefty playing half his time at Fenway, which strongly favors lefties. Career 840 PA and 2.7 fWAR. It's just not that impressive.

It's probably a toss up between Miranda at 1B and Casas at 1B if they're both healthy. The writer(s) at TD have talked about Casas many time this offseason, and I still can't figure out why there's such an interest in him? On a related note, that's exactly why Boston is making him available.

Right now at BTV:
Ryan +54.6
Ober +54.7
Lopez +47.6
Casas +28.3
Festa +23.6
Larnach +22.6
SWR +19.9

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

Power hitting first baseman with defensive liabilities are a dime a dozen. Casas so far has put up 1.7 WAR in his best season. Any GM who trades Ober or Ryan for Casas should be fired. 

Agreed. Is he worth SWR or Festa and a non-pitching prospect in the 10-20 range? Sure. Is he worth Miller, Woo, Duran, Ober or Ryan? Not even close. Boston hasn't been able to trade Casas because they are asking for too much in return. 

[mickster]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What if they do this AND trade for someone like Cease? Would that change your mind?

not unless they would get Cease to sign an extension

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Could someone please tell me why everyone is so willing to trade Ryan or Ober for anything that... well... anything?  I have zero understanding of this.  Two inexpensive, cost-controlled for multiple years, proven, above average starting pitchers.  This team is watching every penny it spends and people think that these two are basically disposable?

I don't know what else to say...  simply amazing.

As for this article, he is probably worth a mid-level prospect, possibly Matthews (if he can field at least on average).  But as others have posted, why is Boston so anxious to get rid of him?

[tony&rodney]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Triston Casas is just a guy as far as I'm concerned. Take him out of Fenway, and poof.

Career line: .250/.357/.473 OPS .830 as a lefty playing half his time at Fenway, which strongly favors lefties. Career 840 PA and 2.7 fWAR. It's just not that impressive.

It's probably a toss up between Miranda at 1B and Casas at 1B if they're both healthy. The writer(s) at TD have talked about Casas many time this offseason, and I still can't figure out why there's such an interest in him? On a related note, that's exactly why Boston is making him available.

Right now at BTV:
Ryan +54.6
Ober +54.7
Lopez +47.6
Casas +28.3
Festa +23.6
Larnach +22.6
SWR +19.9

Casas might be ok at DH or maybe 1B, but the real problem is that he really isn't worth giving up anything that the Twins value. I would offer Julien.

[tony&rodney]

30 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. Is he worth SWR or Festa and a non-pitching prospect in the 10-20 range? Sure. Is he worth Miller, Woo, Duran, Ober or Ryan? Not even close. Boston hasn't been able to trade Casas because they are asking for too much in return. 

I would not trade any of SWR, Festa, or Matthews for Casas. I would trade Julien and Marco Raya for Casas and i'm one of the few who actually thinks Julien can rebound. I don't see a fit above my offer.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Could someone please tell me why everyone is so willing to trade Ryan or Ober for anything that... well... anything?  I have zero understanding of this.  Two inexpensive, cost-controlled for multiple years, proven, above average starting pitchers.  This team is watching every penny it spends and people think that these two are basically disposable?

I don't know what else to say...  simply amazing.

As for this article, he is probably worth a mid-level prospect, possibly Matthews (if he can field at least on average).  But as others have posted, why is Boston so anxious to get rid of him?

If the Twins added Cease, I has suggested that I would be interested in a deal of Ryan for Samuel Basallo. The Orioles say no. Why would I suggest it even? Basallo has a bat that may be Yordan Alvarez and he has also progressed quite a bit as a catcher. I'm also high on both Festa as an MLB pitcher now and Matthews as an MLB pitcher next year. Finally, I like SWR too. So, no don't consider any trade of either Ober or Ryan unless the return is going to be wonderful.

Why is Boston willing to trade Casas? Breslow (running the show for Boston) is focused on defense and a balanced roster. Thus he probes for a way to get something for Casas. Boston fans should hope that their team signs Bregman. Bregman pulls the ball and Fenway is perfect for him. He also plays a good third base which pushes the butcher, Devers, over to 1B or DH if it can be accomplished without a storm.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I would consider a trade for Casas a solid move and one that I could support at the right price. Ober or Ryan is not the right price however. Not at all. At most Richardson, even that is likely a bit of an overpay. Julien and Martin maybe more in line. NOT Ober. IF,Festa, Raya, Matthews etc continue to progress I can see Ober being traded after this season when he has 2 years of control left. The deal at that point would be a blockbuster. Casas is solid imo but just a player. Not blockbuster material. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If the Twins added Cease, I has suggested that I would be interested in a deal of Ryan for Samuel Basallo. The Orioles say no. Why would I suggest it even? Basallo has a bat that may be Yordan Alvarez and he has also progressed quite a bit as a catcher. I'm also high on both Festa as an MLB pitcher now and Matthews as an MLB pitcher next year. Finally, I like SWR too. So, no don't consider any trade of either Ober or Ryan unless the return is going to be wonderful.

Why is Boston willing to trade Casas? Breslow (running the show for Boston) is focused on defense and a balanced roster. Thus he probes for a way to get something for Casas. Boston fans should hope that their team signs Bregman. Bregman pulls the ball and Fenway is perfect for him. He also plays a good third base which pushes the butcher, Devers, over to 1B or DH if it can be accomplished without a storm.

I agree that, on the outside chance the Twins make a move for Cease, moving Ryan or Ober to improve another position has some logic.  However, you don't make that move unless you are 100% sure Festa or Matthews will pitch equal to, or better than, those two.  I am not.  I would rather see them move potential than proven.

I ask about Casas because we as fans assume a he is being moved for defensive liability reasons (though I did not see any mention of that anywhere and I admittedly do not know enough of Casas to judge).  Is he CJ Cron or is he Rowdy Tellez?

[Fatbat]

Travis Adams and Julien seems like a fair trade for Casas. 

[bean5302]

27 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I agree that, on the outside chance the Twins make a move for Cease, moving Ryan or Ober to improve another position has some logic.  However, you don't make that move unless you are 100% sure Festa or Matthews will pitch equal to, or better than, those two.  I am not.  I would rather see them move potential than proven.

I ask about Casas because we as fans assume a he is being moved for defensive liability reasons (though I did not see any mention of that anywhere and I admittedly do not know enough of Casas to judge).  Is he CJ Cron or is he Rowdy Tellez?

2023 - .263/.367/.490 OPS .856 wRC+ 130 xwOBA .370, 13.9% BB, 25.1% K 1.7 fWAR
2023 - .263/.381/.459 OPS .839 wRC+ 135 xwOBA .345, 15.7% , BB, 31.4% K 2.8 fWAR

2023 Casas and Julien were very similar. Casas had more power, Julien had more OBP (likely help from BABIP). Both players had disappointing 2024s. Casas saw his K rate spike up from 25% to 31%, and while he hit fastballs well, he was neutral on everything else. Julien obviously outright struggled against most everything other than the fastball.

In terms of defense, Casas grades out poorly. In UZR/150 grades him as average, DRS and OAA both say he's consistently been a total butcher due to range issues. Probably not an aberration, either. Casas is incredibly slow. Literally bottom 1% of all MLB players last year and he was only 24.

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I totally understand wanting to win now. Me too. Like I said previously, I do like Casas with a bat in his hands. I'm just not seeing any deal that works for the Twins at this time. 

Jeferson Quero is a catcher in the Milwaukee system. He was expected to debut last year but was injured sliding back into first base and needed surgery. He is likely needing a little time to knock the rust off but otherwise ready for MLB. Quero grades as a 70 defensive catcher. He is the only catcher that has that tag. He is really outstanding behind the plate and has hit well in the minor leagues. The risk on Quero is medium/low. The risk on Casas is high/medium as a comparison.

Quero, great defender with a decent enough bat. Of all prospects across the board Quero is who I'd target over most anyone.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Travis Adams and Julien seems like a fair trade for Casas. 

Yes to this all of the way.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I agree that, on the outside chance the Twins make a move for Cease, moving Ryan or Ober to improve another position has some logic.  However, you don't make that move unless you are 100% sure Festa or Matthews will pitch equal to, or better than, those two.  I am not.  I would rather see them move potential than proven.

I ask about Casas because we as fans assume a he is being moved for defensive liability reasons (though I did not see any mention of that anywhere and I admittedly do not know enough of Casas to judge).  Is he CJ Cron or is he Rowdy Tellez?

I'm not advocating a trade of Ryan (or Ober) but if the Twins acquired Cease  and then trade Ryan the bottom two plus depth remains the same. Cease moves in behind Lopez with Joe or Bailey still as the #3 SP.

There are many who dislike the idea of adding a rental such as Cease and are afraid of missing the players that would go the other way. Falvey is probably in that crowd. Cease as a Twin allows the team to see what is available and a prospect such as Basallo is not far from gathering in a Walker Jenkins type talent, which is why it wouldn't happen. It is always worth conversation to stretch ideas.

Boston won't just give Casas away. They like him, just not that much. Cron and Tellez don't have the power that Casas has but Casas is slower and not as good defensively as either of those guys. Does Casas get to his power enough? Hmmm.

[ashbury]

My impression is Casas isn't a very good fielder.  I'm not sure there is a DH in the world I'd trade a major rotation arm for.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

My impression is Casas isn't a very good fielder.  I'm not sure there is a DH in the world I'd trade a major rotation arm for.

Not so fast .... Shohei? Alvarez?

Agree though, I wouldn't trade much for Casas. Maybe Julien and Cory Lewis.

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Not so fast .... Shohei? Alvarez?

Okay, anyone reasonably available.  😀

Trading a starter for Casas would approximately negate the win that I think the Arraez trade was.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not advocating a trade of Ryan (or Ober) but if the Twins acquired Cease  and then trade Ryan the bottom two plus depth remains the same. Cease moves in behind Lopez with Joe or Bailey still as the #3 SP.

There are many who dislike the idea of adding a rental such as Cease and are afraid of missing the players that would go the other way. Falvey is probably in that crowd. Cease as a Twin allows the team to see what is available and a prospect such as Basallo is not far from gathering in a Walker Jenkins type talent, which is why it wouldn't happen. It is always worth conversation to stretch ideas.

Boston won't just give Casas away. They like him, just not that much. Cron and Tellez don't have the power that Casas has but Casas is slower and not as good defensively as either of those guys. Does Casas get to his power enough? Hmmm.

That is an interesting twist Tony. Trade for Cease, depending on the cost. But trade Ryan, or Ober, and get a bigger load for one of them. With 3 years they'd demand a much greater haul back than Cease with one year. I'm an advocate of trading one of Ryan or Ober after this season. Prefer to move Ryan myself. This might be the best way to get an all Star impact bat here.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, old nurse said:

someone like Festa might be a good as they get.

Casas isn't any way as valuable/ worth as much as David Festa. 

[FargoFanMan]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Triston Casas is just a guy as far as I'm concerned. Take him out of Fenway, and poof.

Career line: .250/.357/.473 OPS .830 as a lefty playing half his time at Fenway, which strongly favors lefties. Career 840 PA and 2.7 fWAR. It's just not that impressive.

It's probably a toss up between Miranda at 1B and Casas at 1B if they're both healthy. The writer(s) at TD have talked about Casas many time this offseason, and I still can't figure out why there's such an interest in him? On a related note, that's exactly why Boston is making him available.

Right now at BTV:
Ryan +54.6
Ober +54.7
Lopez +47.6
Casas +28.3
Festa +23.6
Larnach +22.6
SWR +19.9

Because he’s a big bat first baseman that is inexpensive and young with upside that has shown glimpses of true in game MLB power. He also seems to be available. That’s why people around here are intrigued. I am as well but not for any of the top 3 SP’s or festa. If they add Roman Anthony into the trade they can have whoever they want. All kidding aside Boston and Minnesota match up well as trade partners. I don’t think they are hard set on Casas for starters. They have some other holes as well that the Twins could help them fill while filling in 1B

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Casas isn't any way as valuable/ worth as much as David Festa. 

I did not say to trade him for Festa. Look at what Boston was trying to get and the people suggestions for trades. Festa at this point is a back of the rotation starter. Will he get better? Maybe. Maybe not. It doesn’t hurt Breslow to try for better. 

[tony&rodney]

23 minutes ago, old nurse said:

I did not say to trade him for Festa. Look at what Boston was trying to get and the people suggestions for trades. Festa at this point is a back of the rotation starter. Will he get better? Maybe. Maybe not. It doesn’t hurt Breslow to try for better. 

Casas is basically worth Julien plus a #10-20 prospect. Yes, you are right, Breslow is trying to get more. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Casas is basically worth Julien plus a #10-20 prospect. Yes, you are right, Breslow is trying to get more. 

Gotta say, this is just too low for Casas. I know he is a 1b/dh, but he has legit power and has shown it. 
Julien was really good in 2023, but doesn’t have a defensive home and couldn’t hit anything that wasn’t a fastball in 2024. He has to have a healthy 3 months while producing to not have negative value right now. 

[tony&rodney]

34 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Gotta say, this is just too low for Casas. I know he is a 1b/dh, but he has legit power and has shown it. 
Julien was really good in 2023, but doesn’t have a defensive home and couldn’t hit anything that wasn’t a fastball in 2024. He has to have a healthy 3 months while producing to not have negative value right now. 

You are right. I appreciate your comment and check on my comment.

I'm obviously not a fan of Casas but should not diminish his talent or value. I wouldn't trade for him.