Why Are Projection Systems So High on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax?

LambchoP · February 1, 2025

As good as they are, we need to keep them healthy which means not overusing them or misusing them. Duran does best in save situations. Jax should be used in late game situations in high leverage, not bulk innings in the middle of the game. Our relievers need clear cut roles and Rocco needs to use them as such. Alcala did great in one inning stints, yet Rocco kept throwing him out there for two or three innings? These kind of things and pitcher roles need to be worked out by the end of spring training. Oh, and Varland has no business trying to be a starter anymore. Let him let it fly in the pen.

rdehring · February 1, 2025

Thanks, NIck. This is really interesting. Didn't realize there were that few relievers who are so elite. Seems like every time we played the Guardians, they had five or six of them.

I will continue to believe that Duran had an off year last year because he missed almost all of spring training. He never got back to 104 regularly, which made a difference in his results. Am hopeful he has a good spring and we see the pitcher we saw in 2023.

As for the 11 relievers you list, I don't expect to see Paddack in the Twins pen. Expect to see him traded before opening day or in the starting rotation before being a valuable trade piece in July.

The biggest news for us Twins fans is that we should no longer see those guys who no longer belonged on a major league staff. Take away a couple of those guys last year and the Twins pen's numbers would have been better. Much better.

D.C Twins · February 1, 2025

Tonkin estimated WAR of 0.1 is wildly optimistic... he'll be a negative WAR and not even make it through the season.

Brock will be a 1.0 or effectively a 0 based on health.

Alcala could surprise us with the breakout season some of us feel is his capable of.

Fatbat · February 1, 2025

They are in their prime and they will dominate. If Stewart, Alcala and Sands are healthy and thriving, we will be lights out after 6 innings. Shorten the game at Target Field and no one will want to play here.

Rod Carews Birthday · February 1, 2025

I wouldn’t trade the pair for any other, unless I could cherry pick two other specific ones off of the top 10 list. We’re pretty lucky to have them, and as discussed here and elsewhere is what makes the bullpen elite. Our projected #3 guy, Sands, would likely be number two on most teams and an unfortunate #1 on others. Forcing good relievers like that down in the pecking order makes a ton of difference. By the end of the season, I expect to see Varland in a solid role in the pen as well. The wild cards at this point are Paddack — will he be here, will he be starting? — and Stewart — can we keep him healthy?

As usual, a lot of noise is made about the innings from our starters. Absolutely, it is important for starters to go as deep as they effectively can in order to not work the pen. However, the Twins’ innings from starters is well above average (I believe #2 in the league in 2023) so wanting more innings is more of a want than an actual deficiency compared to the rest of the league.

I like the starters. I like the bullpen. If this team can hit a little, I like our chances!

Richie the Rally Goat · February 1, 2025

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

They are in their prime and they will dominate. If Stewart, Alcala and Sands are healthy and thriving, we will be lights out after 6 innings. Shorten the game at Target Field and no one will want to play here.

Sands, Stewart and Topa have shown it over the course of a season, Alcala has had stretches, the pen could be very good, but there’s also a ton of risk because all 4 of them are the definition of volatile relievers.

boom or bust

old nurse · February 1, 2025

27 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Thanks, NIck. This is really interesting. Didn't realize there were that few relievers who are so elite. Seems like every time we played the Guardians, they had five or six of them.

I will continue to believe that Duran had an off year last year because he missed almost all of spring training. He never got back to 104 regularly, which made a difference in his results. Am hopeful he has a good spring and we see the pitcher we saw in 2023.

As for the 11 relievers you list, I don't expect to see Paddack in the Twins pen. Expect to see him traded before opening day or in the starting rotation before being a valuable trade piece in July.

The biggest news for us Twins fans is that we should no longer see those guys who no longer belonged on a major league staff. Take away a couple of those guys last year and the Twins pen's numbers would have been better. Much better.

There were 29 relief pitchers that pitched at least 5 innings that had a fWAR over 1.3. There were 34 pitchers that had a FIP under 3.0, 75 who were under 3.51. There’s more decent relief pitchers than the projection states there are

Fatbat · February 1, 2025

9 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Sands, Stewart and Topa have shown it over the course of a season, Alcala has had stretches, the pen could be very good, but there’s also a ton of risk because all 4 of them are the definition of volatile relievers.

boom or bust

Absolutely. I should have mentioned Topa but his lost ‘23 season caused me to forget how good he was in ‘22. ‘25 needs to be a boom year.

Karbo · February 1, 2025

This sounds way to familiar to me. The projections are really kind of a crap shoot in the pen. Remember how we kept hearing how good the pen would be last spring? That sure worked out well!

Nick Nelson · February 1, 2025

5 minutes ago, Karbo said:

This sounds way to familiar to me. The projections are really kind of a crap shoot in the pen. Remember how we kept hearing how good the pen would be last spring? That sure worked out well!

The Twins ranked second in the AL in bullpen WAR last year, so I would say yes, it did.

tony&rodney · February 1, 2025

The Twins have a good pen and both Jax and Duran are really good.

mike8791 · February 1, 2025

Nick, why such a great emphasis on WAR? Isn't the true effectiveness of a reliever the % of inherited runners stranded? Maybe not so much for a closer but for all the other pen arms, this is an essential stat that ought to be mentioned more in pen assessments. I'd like to see Jax's IRS stat, e.g.

I believe the 2024 Twins pen ranked in the bottom 1/3 of ML bullpens in IRS which is why this "best bullpen business" is certainly open to doubt.

Richie the Rally Goat · February 1, 2025

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

Nick, why such a great emphasis on WAR? Isn't the true effectiveness of a reliever the % of inherited runners stranded? Maybe not so much for a closer but for all the other pen arms, this is an essential stat that ought to be mentioned more in pen assessments. I'd like to see Jax's IRS stat, e.g.

I believe the 2024 Twins pen ranked in the bottom 1/3 of ML bullpens in IRS which is why this "best bullpen business" is certainly open to doubt.

I don’t really love WAR either, but it’s convenient!

I think having a high number of inherited runners relative to the league would be counter-value.
1) you usually have multiple relievers per game, but only 1 starter. A high strand count would mean your relievers are putting a lot of runners on the bases and not striking them out.

2) a high strand rate without count doesn’t tell you much either. 100% strand rate but only 2 inherited runners isn’t useful.

WPA Win Probability Added, and Leverage stats can give you some of that flavor. But they aren’t predictive or comprehensive. The Twins Bullpen ranked 11th in MLB in 2024 by WPA. Again it’s a cumulative stat, so fewer chances, less accumulation.

edit to add: The Twins scored the 4th most runs in baseball last year, blowouts don’t accumulate WPA, late and close does.

i really like WHIP as a stat I firmly understand and it tells me how well the pitcher took care of business. Fewer base runners per inning pitched is a good thing! Twins bullpen ranked 13 in 2024.

mikelink45 · February 1, 2025

Interesting as I watch the snow coming down. But I don't buy it. WAR projections for RP don't mean anything. As another post stated it is inherited runners that really make the BP.

So we had the second best WAR BP last year and finished out of the playoffs, yet we also talk about quality SP. Something is wrong.

Let's just wait and see, but then that does not leave anything to write about.

Richie the Rally Goat · February 1, 2025

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I wouldn’t trade the pair for any other, unless I could cherry pick two other specific ones off of the top 10 list. We’re pretty lucky to have them, and as discussed here and elsewhere is what makes the bullpen elite. Our projected #3 guy, Sands, would likely be number two on most teams and an unfortunate #1 on others. Forcing good relievers like that down in the pecking order makes a ton of difference. By the end of the season, I expect to see Varland in a solid role in the pen as well. The wild cards at this point are Paddack — will he be here, will he be starting? — and Stewart — can we keep him healthy?

As usual, a lot of noise is made about the innings from our starters. Absolutely, it is important for starters to go as deep as they effectively can in order to not work the pen. However, the Twins’ innings from starters is well above average (I believe #2 in the league in 2023) so wanting more innings is more of a want than an actual deficiency compared to the rest of the league.

I like the starters. I like the bullpen. If this team can hit a little, I like our chances!

They hit a ton for all but 6 weeks of the season… if they can put a full season together and tighten up their fielding… I really like our chances

bean5302 · February 1, 2025

I seem to recall a similar result to a couple years ago where the bullpen was very good, but short start after short start after short start towards the end of the year ran a ragged, overworked bullpen out there day after day towards the end.

The bullpen was not the problem last year. The Twins were tied for 5th best in MLB in Blown saves. Way too many scenarios where the bullpen had to go out there and pitch 4 scoreless innings to keep it close. It's totally unreasonable to expect the bullpen not to give up at least 1 run per game when you're only getting 4-6 inning starts.

Parfigliano · February 1, 2025

2 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Nick, why such a great emphasis on WAR? Isn't the true effectiveness of a reliever the % of inherited runners stranded? Maybe not so much for a closer but for all the other pen arms, this is an essential stat that ought to be mentioned more in pen assessments. I'd like to see Jax's IRS stat, e.g.

I believe the 2024 Twins pen ranked in the bottom 1/3 of ML bullpens in IRS which is why this "best bullpen business" is certainly open to doubt.

You can pick a metric from a basket of metrics to define the "best bullpen".

Parfigliano · February 1, 2025

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I don’t really love WAR either, but it’s convenient!

I think having a high number of inherited runners relative to the league would be counter-value.
1) you usually have multiple relievers per game, but only 1 starter. A high strand count would mean your relievers are putting a lot of runners on the bases and not striking them out.

2) a high strand rate without count doesn’t tell you much either. 100% strand rate but only 2 inherited runners isn’t useful.

WPA Win Probability Added, and Leverage stats can give you some of that flavor. But they aren’t predictive or comprehensive. The Twins Bullpen ranked 11th in MLB in 2024 by WPA. Again it’s a cumulative stat, so fewer chances, less accumulation.

edit to add: The Twins scored the 4th most runs in baseball last year, blowouts don’t accumulate WPA, late and close does.

i really like WHIP as a stat I firmly understand and it tells me how well the pitcher took care of business. Fewer base runners per inning pitched is a good thing! Twins bullpen ranked 13 in 2024.

WHIP and inherited runners scoring is how I would judge a relief pitcher.

Fatbat · February 1, 2025

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

You can pick a metric from a basket of metrics to define the "best bullpen".

Im old school. I like wins and losses<-(not so much) saves and holds tell enough for me. Blown saves is a good indicator of things going south with a closer.

TopGunn#22 · February 1, 2025

I agree with Lambchop. It's something I've complained about with Rocco consistently since he became our manager. Rocco needs to define specific roles for each member of his bullpen. I never cared for Tony LaRussa, but the guy knew how to define roles and stuck to it.

Duran needs to CLOSE. Cleveland never taps Clase in the 7th inning. Jax is the 8th inning guy. If you need to get out of a 2 out jam in the 7th, bring Jax in to put out the fire and send him back out for the 8th. Alcala IS much better in one inning stints.

I'm interested to see how Canterino could be used if he could ever stay healthy and make it to the big leagues. I'm interested to see if Raya can make it to the Twins and use him in the pen once he makes it up to limit his innings/pitches. Same with Prielipp. We have some guys who will be hit or miss (Tonkin, Topa, Castellano, Varland, Funderburk) who could be replaced by one of the 3 guys listed above could replace. Stewart and Funderburk could be pretty good...or not.

There will be plenty of occasions where the Twins will need an arm or two for a spurt.

And there may still be some trades made that could send an arm and bring back an arm that could mix things up.

But I like having Duran and Jax at the back end. I just hope Rocco defines roles and uses his pitchers accordingly.

Blyleven2011 · February 2, 2025

9 hours ago, Karbo said:

This sounds way to familiar to me. The projections are really kind of a crap shoot in the pen. Remember how we kept hearing how good the pen would be last spring? That sure worked out well!

I would flip Jax with the higher projection over Duran , I have my concerns about Duran , he really doesn't seem to fool the batters with his pitch mix , but he once said he wasn't calling the pitches to throw , if it wasn't him or our catcher , gee I wonder who then ???

Blyleven2011 · February 2, 2025

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree with Lambchop. It's something I've complained about with Rocco consistently since he became our manager. Rocco needs to define specific roles for each member of his bullpen. I never cared for Tony LaRussa, but the guy knew how to define roles and stuck to it.

Duran needs to CLOSE. Cleveland never taps Clase in the 7th inning. Jax is the 8th inning guy. If you need to get out of a 2 out jam in the 7th, bring Jax in to put out the fire and send him back out for the 8th. Alcala IS much better in one inning stints.

I'm interested to see how Canterino could be used if he could ever stay healthy and make it to the big leagues. I'm interested to see if Raya can make it to the Twins and use him in the pen once he makes it up to limit his innings/pitches. Same with Prielipp. We have some guys who will be hit or miss (Tonkin, Topa, Castellano, Varland, Funderburk) who could be replaced by one of the 3 guys listed above could replace. Stewart and Funderburk could be pretty good...or not.

There will be plenty of occasions where the Twins will need an arm or two for a spurt.

And there may still be some trades made that could send an arm and bring back an arm that could mix things up.

But I like having Duran and Jax at the back end. I just hope Rocco defines roles and uses his pitchers accordingly.

Defining roles matter ....

DocBauer · February 2, 2025

I don't have a personal opinion about what statistic(s) are best used to measure a pen. One of the great things about baseball is how you can measure ANYTHING...and they do...but you can also disagree with which measurement really indicates what is the most true measurement.

It can become a vicious circle. I guess I tend to look at WHIP a lot, and I do believe inherited runs scored has a firm place as well. But I also see where WAR and fWAR have their place. I think WPA is a nice tool as well. It would be great if someone had a formula where you could take about 5 of those tools and come out with an aggregate number. (Is there and I'm not recalling one?) I also like to look at a pitchers OPS against. But that can also be skewed.

As to the pen AS CONSTRUCTED, and the focus of the pen as is, Duran's overall numbers and underlying numbers were still solid. He simply proved to be "human" in 2024. I've stated before, maybe his sequencing just needs a little adjustment. Maybe he just needs to take a little off his splinker if his FB is "only" 100mph instead of 102mph. I doubt there's a team in all of MLB that wouldn't take him in a heartbeat if they could. Same with Jax.

I pushback somewhat on the idea of "defined roles". I don't entirely disagree, in theory. But a MLRP knows he has to be prepared almost every game to pitch when called upon. And I've had some issues with pen use by Rocco. But HIGH LEVERAGE positions are a real thing. And Duran and Jax are BOTH used in those spots. With little exception, either will be used in the 8th or 9th. There's no real mystery there. By the same token, a veteran middle man like Tonkin knows he's going in to the game in the middle innings, he's not being used in a late game HIGH LEVERAGE situation.

Because a publication says the Twins have one of the best, or THE best pen on paper is THEIR opinion, and NOT TD, or the Twins saying they have the best. I think that's a distinction to remember as we discuss and prepare for 2025. But I see the logic.

The depth of arms is pretty impressive, even if you don't like every option available. In point of fact, I think the "option game" might not even have the Twins open with what might be their best pen.

EXAMPLE: Are the Twins really going to open the season with rule 5 pick Castellano eating up a roster spot as a seldom used innings eater in blowouts? Is that what a contending team does? Or do they send him back to the Phillies, or still work out a deal to keep him and farm him out? (I'd make a deal if they really like him that much if the cost is right). Does Henriquez show enough in ST to earn an initial roster spot because you wouldn't dare lose him, especially IF you're also stashing Castellano?

So the pen is fluid right now, and that's not necessarily good or bad. Depth is GOOD, as long as you are keeping quality arms at the ML level and not keeping better arms stashed at AAA "just because" you want to build depth.

Duran and Jax, stalwarts. The best arms we've got.

Stewart is as good as both of those if healthy. Reportedly, he feels great after his cleanup procedure, but is slightly behind in his program. Plenty of time to be ready. Stewart for 50 IP is a game changer. I'd even settle for 40.

I think by now we've ALL seen and generally agreed that Alcala has 1 IP dominance ability. IMO the excuse of "someone has to throw more than 1 inning" is poor, if not ridiculous, especially as the pen in constructed now. I understand injuries had an affect on his usage in 2024 to some degree, but I still blame his poor usage on Rocco to a degree. Allowed 1 IP, he's damn good as 6th-7th inning guy. Period.

Sands showed progress in 2023. In 2024 he was EXCELLENT. He was so good, generally, especially in low BB totals, he could have some regression and still be trusted.

Varland is a Wild Card who might not even make the opening day roster. And opinions on him are divisive I know. But I've watched this kid for 3 years now, as a SP and RP. And some want to point out a bad 2024 and seemingly refuse to look at everything else he's done. Even when he had poor rotation starts, he was usually good ONCE through the lineup, if not twice. Allowed to max out for 1-2 IP, he's got the stuff to be very affective.

Topa and Tonkin are very much the same pitcher. Topa had ONE great season with Seattle after overcoming injuries. His SSSS late in 2024 he looked OK. Might he be a bridge arm in 2025 with his knee 100%? But with options, he MIGHT give way to Tonkin to begin next season. Why is everyone so down on Tonkin? After leaving MLB for Japan, he had a solid 2023 with the Braves. Despite bouncing around in 2024 to various teams...ALWAYS IMMEDIATELY picked up by someone else to fill a role, he was as good or better than he was in 2023. He's a rubber arm veteran for the middle innings who puts up solid numbers. He's a potentially perfect 8th man...as could be Topa...who's really only "disposable" because he's cheap and older and not a high leverage arm.

I say again, if you have Tonkin and Topa available, and Varland might be as good or better as a 2 IP arm, why would the Twins keep Castellano on the roster? And BTW, you're also considering keeping Henriquez as a similar, younger pitcher with some upside.

I'd rather have an all RH relief corp who has the ability to get LH batters out vs having another Okert LOOGY type option. Funderburk was my pick for most disappointing arm in 2024. The former starter had a solid 2023 where I thought he'd take a step forward. He didn't. And Thielbar seemed to hit a wall. I still think Funderburk has potential. Maybe he'll take a step forward in 2025. I sure hope so. I think Hendrick has a shot as a former starter to convert. And I think previous starter Nowlin has a chance to really surprise if the Twins convert him as a RP right away.

But I sure wouldn't be opposed to adding a LHRP with the "extra" $5M they supposedly have available to spend.

NOT going to talk about the possibilities of Canterino or Prielipp or Adams or other MILB arms, but Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Sands, Varland, Topa, Tonkin, Funderburk, Headrick, Henriquez and other possibles SHOULD make us feel really good about how the pen looks at the moment.

AlLagoon · February 2, 2025

What the hay? Is this optimism at Twins Daily?

TL · February 2, 2025

Varland could really put this pen over the top, if he finally accepts his fate. My read is the Twins would have already made the move but he is too resistant to it. I get that the bigger contracts go to starters, but he has to collect the service time to even get to that point and not be buried in AAA, which is where he’ll be as a starter.

Richie the Rally Goat · February 2, 2025

16 minutes ago, TL said:

Varland could really put this pen over the top, if he finally accepts his fate. My read is the Twins would have already made the move but he is too resistant to it. I get that the bigger contracts go to starters, but he has to collect the service time to even get to that point and not be buried in AAA, which is where he’ll be as a starter.

To be a pro athlete, especially baseball, where you play pro ball for 4-6 years in the minors and the attrition rate is 95%(?) you HAVE to be an extreme optimist and extremely confident in your abilities. It’s not faith, it’s certainty that you WILL succeed. It’s what got Louie this far, and it’s really hard to change that mindset.

edit to add: agreed Varland could be a 3rd/4th monster along with Duran, Jax and Sands (who was a step below Jax/Duran but SO good, top setup man on 10-15 teams, and closer on 4)

tony&rodney · February 2, 2025

Louie Varland likely needs only a slight adjustment on finger pressure and release to leap toward an elite level relief pitcher. Too many of his pitches are center cut and needing just a little more movement. He can do it.

I'm a little surprised that a few teams who have great expectations for 2025 have not coerced Falvey into exchanging Duran for a position player. These teams may regret their inability to deal and I'm pleased the Twins still have Duran.

Michael Tonkin has often been mentioned as a player to DFA, but my gut tells me that his value as a veteran and as an effective #8 fellow in the bullpen is more valuable than people understand. A rubber arm is needed in every pen and he is it for the Twins. The #3-7 positions are open for a host of other relievers.

David Maro · February 2, 2025

Jax has become a pitcher in 24 and Duran is still a thrower. Just because you can throw 100+ doesn't mean you can get outs. Most hitters can catch up now and throwing pitches in the middle of the zone get hit hard. We will see how the rest of the BP fairs with no Lefty as of now. And the health of Stewart and Alcala and Topa is key.

JD-TWINS · February 2, 2025

On 2/1/2025 at 10:32 AM, LambchoP said:

As good as they are, we need to keep them healthy which means not overusing them or misusing them. Duran does best in save situations. Jax should be used in late game situations in high leverage, not bulk innings in the middle of the game. Our relievers need clear cut roles and Rocco needs to use them as such. Alcala did great in one inning stints, yet Rocco kept throwing him out there for two or three innings? These kind of things and pitcher roles need to be worked out by the end of spring training. Oh, and Varland has no business trying to be a starter anymore. Let him let it fly in the pen.

Alcala was in 54 games and threw 58 1/3 innings………the 2-3 inning at a time storyline isn’t real. In the timeframe where he was used more often than an inning at a time, earlier in the season, he had a 1.56 ERA (34 2/3 innings prior to All-star break).

He had 3-4 bad outings through the year…….one, he was last guy in the Pen & had to finish, and another was the Texas debacle. He’s a good pitcher that had mostly great success………..but his problems aren’t due to the Manager as all relievers (pitchers/players) stumble sometimes through a season. His mental stamina and command will drive his success going forward.

KBJ1 · February 2, 2025

Yeah the BP looked great on paper last year, and then it wasn't.

We had more potential depth last year with all the reclamation project signings. But they all failed and everyone else got hurt or floundered.

This year we have no Leftys, 3 or more coming back from injury, and no proven backups.

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Why Are Projection Systems So High on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax?

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