Why on Earth Would the Minnesota Twins Trade For Dylan Cease?

[Eric Blonigen]

Spoiler alert? Because it almost makes too much sense to not at least try.

Image courtesy of © David Frerker-Imagn Images

A week or so ago, Dan Hayes wrote that the Padres were interested in Christian Vázquez, and added (almost as an afterthought) that the Twins were also discussing trading for Dylan Cease. For many fans, this was a confusing notion. After all, the Twins have three playoff-caliber starters already, incredible pitching depth and clear needs elsewhere on the roster. While trading for Cease remains somewhat unlikely, there are some reasons why it could be a shrewd move, steeped in a clear-eyed understanding of the needle the Twins must thread in an attempt to make a deep playoff run in 2025.

Let’s start with the easy stuff. Dylan Cease is a Dude. An ace. A legitimate frontline starter. According to FanGraphs’s Steamer projections, he’ll be worth the 12th-most pitcher WAR in baseball. He’s a workhorse. He’s relatively cost-effective. Those are all the reasons 28 other teams in baseball would probably love to have him taking the bump for them every fifth day.

More specifically for the Twins, though: Cease fits the team's style; his addition would make the 2025 rotation much better; and he would give them the proven, quality rotation depth that makes many other things possible. I’ll be digging into the arguments for those last three points, and in doing so, will hopefully convince you that this one move could carry the Twins deep into October, with just a little luck and health on the hitting side.

A Philosophical Match
Have you ever noticed that when it comes to starting pitchers, the Twins have a type? It's guys who rack up strikeouts like they are high-leverage relievers. Guys who don’t give up too many free passes. Guys with great vertical movement, a rising four-seam shape on the fastball and good depth on a breaking ball. You know who checks those boxes, and more? That’s right, it's Dylan Cease. His slider is elite, he pumps gas with his heater, he's got better-than-average vertical movement on his fastball, curve, and slider, and on any given night, he’s capable of doing this:

Boosting the October Rotation
Look, this is the easiest argument to make. There’s been a refrain from fans on Twins Daily and elsewhere, ever since the Twins traded for Pablo López: “But he’s not an ace.” First of all, you can make a case that López is, anyway, but let's grant the lamenters' premise for now. You know who is an ace? Cease. He would instantly slot in as the Twins' best pitcher, even if it’s just for a season. The byproduct of that is as follows: López instantly enters the conversation for best (non-Dodgers) number two starter in baseball; nobody outside of the Dodgers would have a better number three than Joe Ryan; Bailey Ober, the presumptive fourth starter, would be some teams’ staff ace; and Simeon Woods Richardson would be a downright luxury at the back of the rotation.

Now, let’s consider the other implications of this. All offseason, there’s been buzz around moving on from Chris Paddack and his contract. There have also been murmurs that the Twins may prefer to have a fourth veteran in the rotation to begin the season. Adding Cease would solve that, and remove the last remaining justification for Paddack to be on the 2025 roster. Trading for Cease would certainly cost them one of Louie Varland, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, and Marco Raya, and quite possibly two of them, as part of a package. but whoever stuck around would be free either or convert to the bullpen or to continue refining their craft in St Paul.

Consider that for a moment: Marco Raya, one of the Twins’ best prospects, would be their likely eighth option. Name one other team with that combination of high-end pitching on the big-league club, and four additional legit starting prospects at Triple A. I bet you can’t do it, and the Twins wouldn't even be especially likely to need all that depth.

Durability and Its Implications
Cease is incredibly durable, and durably incredible. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged over 183 innings per season (10th in MLB), has made at least 32 starts per year (3rd in MLB), and has done it while putting up roughly 4.3 fWAR per season (5th in MLB). In his five-and-a-half-season career, he has never missed a start.

Over the past few seasons, the Twins have lost significant time from pitchers they were counting on to take them to the October promised land. Tyler Mahle was injured for basically his entire season and a half with the Twins. Kenta Maeda needed Tommy John surgery at the end of 2021 and was out for the 2022 season. In 2024, the Twins lost Joe Ryan when it mattered most.

Some sports wonks say the best ability is availability. I might quibble with that a bit, but for all intents and purposes, the 2024 Twins season ended with Ryan’s teres major strain. Yes, there were a ton of factors that led to the Twins' epic collapse, but losing a playoff-caliber starter is tough to come back from when you aren’t firing on all cylinders as a team. Adding Cease would give the Twins four clearly playoff-caliber veteran starters, which would make it easier to absorb the loss of one while still hoping to make a deep playoff run. Crucially, too, putting him in the mix would reduce the probability of losing one—or at least multiple—of those guys.

To sum all this up, there’s a lot of upside to trading for Cease, and no good reason not to, as long as the Twins don’t need to give up Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodríguez (which, presumably, they wouldn't even consider, anyway). They'd have to move money, in the form of Paddack and Vázquez, but it would be worth the hoop-jumping.

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What do you think? Are you convinced? I’d love to hear your thoughts on the matter. Comment below!

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[JBK]

Pull the trigger, even if for one season. Four top of the line starters will keep us in every game while the hitters will try and figure it out.

[Major League Ready]

If any team should be in win now mode it’s the Padres.  It’s hard to believe the Padres are willing to trade Cease.  They lost Profar and Ha-Seong Kim this year and they will lose Arraez next year.  
They also have very significant obligations to aging players.  Machado will turn 33 this year and he is under contract for the next 9 seasons.  He is only making $17M this year but his salary goes to $25M in 2026 and $39M for the following 7 years.   That’s likely to be ugly.  Darish will turn 39 this year.  He has four years and $77M remaining.  Joe Musgrove just turned 32 so he’s not that old but he only produced 1.4 WAR last year.  

Their two best pitchers by far were Cease and King.  They are both free agents next year.  This year is likely going to be their best shot for the next several years.   They won’t be freeing up a bunch of payroll either.  King and Arrez make $22M combined and Machado increases by $8M in 2026 and $22M in 2027.  How does trading away your best SP improve your chances of winning?  Makes you wonder if they question his health or do they see the writing on the wall and are looking to rebuild.  
 

[gmwannabe]

If you can aquire an ace you give SD what they want. SD is looking for salary relief so I think the Twins have to pay down 5 million of Vasquez's salary rather than giving SD more trade capital. I'm thinking Larnach, Vasquez, and Matthews would get it done. Use Castro in left until the trade deadline and hopefully E-Rod takes over. Of course the Twins will have to move Paddock to pay for Cease with the 5 million they save on Vasquez combined with the 3 million they would save by trading Castro at the deadline.

[gmwannabe]

So much for that rumor, the Padres just signed Diaz to catch. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, gmwannabe said:

So much for that rumor, the Padres just signed Diaz to catch. 

I don’t think Vazquez is the sole reason they would trade Cease

[CRF]

Not gonna happen. 

[killertwinfan]

Why, he’s a huge value player at that price. If you can get him for Vasquez and Paddack and some talent from your pipeline, maybe.  BUT, we won’t pay him next year, at least with this ownership group so why raid your pipeline?
 

in the end it’s just a narrative to tempt fans to believe we are trying to build a winning roster.  However in reality, self imposed salary constraints make it impossible to do so.  

[In My La Z boy]

Great article!
Seems like our only significant move will be trading owners this off-season. Which could actually be more important than anything Falvey could do. I favor acquiring the most quality pitching possible. No one ever has enough high caliber pitching.
MLB Tonight says the Padres are also making King available. The only reason they can be floating Cease and King is because they each have 1 year left, the Padres won't resign either, and they want salary relief, stud prospects & a MLB ready guy or 2 that doesn't cost much. 

[Trov]

57 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If any team should be in win now mode it’s the Padres.  It’s hard to believe the Padres are willing to trade Cease.  They lost Profar and Ha-Seong Kim this year and they will lose Arraez next year.  
They also have very significant obligations to aging players.  Machado will turn 33 this year and he is under contract for the next 9 seasons.  He is only making $17M this year but his salary goes to $25M in 2026 and $39M for the following 7 years.   That’s likely to be ugly.  Darish will turn 39 this year.  He has four years and $77M remaining.  Joe Musgrove just turned 32 so he’s not that old but he only produced 1.4 WAR last year.  

Their two best pitchers by far were Cease and King.  They are both free agents next year.  This year is likely going to be their best shot for the next several years.   They won’t be freeing up a bunch of payroll either.  King and Arrez make $22M combined and Machado increases by $8M in 2026 and $22M in 2027.  How does trading away your best SP improve your chances of winning?  Makes you wonder if they question his health or do they see the writing on the wall and are looking to rebuild.  
 

I fully agree with your points.  It raises a red flag to me that a team pushing all in for last few years will trade away their best pitcher knowing they will need to cut even more payroll next year, and the year after.  This might be their last season before a full on rebuild.  

However, there is a counter too it.  Because they know the only way they can compete in the near future is young cheap talent now is the time to try and load up on that with the few assets they can trade.  They know their ability to bring in large payroll is 0 for the next 5 plus years and may need to even cut.  They are finally reaping what they sewed from all the big spending(like some Twins fans wanted Twins to do). I think the GM knows that because they have Machado, and many others on super expensive long term deals they will need to fill out rest of roster with guys in first 3 years of playing, and only way you win is if they are studs, and best way is to get as much as you can and hope a few stick.

[JesusisLord7]

I'd say NO. Not unless the new ownership was willing to add to the team in other areas as well. I think our best chance is to build the young talent and build a team around Jenkins. We could use a top of the order leadoff hitter with speed + a talented right handed hitting outfielder. We don't have any talented left handed pitching in the rotation or even in the bullpen. Minnesota is not built to beat people with power and we don't really have team speed to beat teams on the base paths. At best, we have good starters that might get us to the playoffs but are not legit enough to carry us deep into the playoffs. We need to star that can carry us in the playoffs. In my life the only guy that fits that profile is Kirby Puckett. He put the team on his shoulders. I thought that would be the case with Joe Mauer but honestly the dude never won a playoff game. Not even one. I think some combination of Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, Rodriquez, and Walker Jenkins reminds me of the young Twins that ultimately won the world series. Don't put that at risk. It's our best shot. 

[JD-TWINS]

56 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

If you can aquire an ace you give SD what they want. SD is looking for salary relief so I think the Twins have to pay down 5 million of Vasquez's salary rather than giving SD more trade capital. I'm thinking Larnach, Vasquez, and Matthews would get it done. Use Castro in left until the trade deadline and hopefully E-Rod takes over. Of course the Twins will have to move Paddock to pay for Cease with the 5 million they save on Vasquez combined with the 3 million they would save by trading Castro at the deadline.

Padres signed Elias Diaz as a FA Catcher……don’t need Vazquez any longer.

Larnach has more value, IMO, than Castro ….too much to give up for a team that needs offense.

Castro (LF & IF depth) - Matthews - R. Henriquez ……. they get 2 controllable arms on an aging staff. They save $5.5M and gain a substitute starter and 2 other value players.

To me, Preller seems to be too much of a win now & figure out next year, next year kind of guy to move high caliber pitchers - 1 year remaining for Cease & King - maybe searching for medium term viability as well?

[SteveLV]

I would only trade emerging talent for 1 year of Cease (or King) if the FO was assured a) that new ownership is relatively imminent, b) the new owner(s) agree with the move, and c) new ownership wants to extend Cease to a new deal before the trade deadline.

In other words, I am not trading good young talent for Cease unless it is for more than 1 year.

[tony&rodney]

The odds are probably 1,000-1 right now. The conversation (of some kind) was had, reported, and thoroughly discussed. The Twins would need to sign Luke Maille first to minor league deal, $2M.

If the Twins wanted to make Preller think real hard, they could throw a pile of players in an attempt to entice him. It won't work and if it did it might weaken the Twins. No harm in texting. 

Vazquez, Larnach, Julien, Raya, and Cory Lewis is my last offer ..... for now.

I think this idea has outlived its shelf life, but it never hurts to wish/discuss.

Edited January 29, 2025 by tony&rodney
Mistake-noticed I put Jeffers instead of Vazquez.

[Aerodeliria]

Every year around this time, an article or two will spin this type of rumor but they never really bear any fruit it seems, except once when the Twins landed Nelson Cruz. That is the only time in my memory where one of these rumors came to pass, and that (I'm afraid to say) was driven (IMHO) primarily by Cruz waiting around too long for a better offer, so when none came about he was stuck with either the Rays or the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

Every year around this time, an article or two will spin this type of rumor but they never really bear any fruit it seems, except once when the Twins landed Nelson Cruz. That is the only time in my memory where one of these rumors came to pass, and that (I'm afraid to say) was driven (IMHO) primarily by Cruz waiting around too long for a better offer, so when none came about he was stuck with either the Rays or the Twins.

Think the Rays traded Ryan for Cruz at the trade deadline in the summer because they wanted a bat.

[Heiny]

If the Twins can get Cease without trading any of Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, EM Rodriquez, and Walker Jenkins I would go for it.  These players are the future of the Twins along with some good young starting pitchers.  That being said I highly doubt that we will be trading for Cease.  Just MHO.

 

[amjgt]

The most likely reason why this would happen is because Falvey can’t feel super secure about his job, with new ownership coming in. 
 

The Twins underperforming in 2025 could very easily mean the end of Falvey’s tenure. 
 

While I support the idea of trading for Cease (or King), job security isn’t really the best reason to make a big move, though it certainly can be a big motivator. 

[jmlease1]

Would I trade Vazquez, Varland, and Matthews for cease? Yeah, i think I would. Is that going to be enough for SD? no, i don't think it will be. Guessing it'd be more like raya, and keaschall to make SD happy. I'm less enthusiastic, even if I do have concerns about Keaschall's recovery from a significant injury. Raya and Matthews? now I have to think very hard about this. (I'm assuming vazquez's contract is involved somehow, and we probably have to move Paddack for an A-ball lottery ticket to make payroll work)

Some of it comes down to whether or not Cease could be retained at all with new ownership. Pitching prospects are hot air until they perform in MLB, so who really knows what all the cheap season of guys like Raya and Matthews are worth? Does a great rotation win a title with this Twins team?

Cease, Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and SWR is an awesome rotation. We'd still have Festa and others waiting in AAA (Morris, Adams, Lewis, etc). basically the real question is whether or not the Twins can pick the pitching prospects least likely to be for-real MLB starters and still sell them to SD. because we're all going to lose our minds if they deal Raya and Matthews to SD and then in 2026 they're both in SD's rotation and pitching well while Cease signs a $300M deal with the &#$@* Yankees and the Twins didn't get out of the ALDS in 2025...

Twins volume of starting pitchers in the high minors is impressive, but none are sure locks, because almost no starting pitcher prospect is. I'll admit, I don't even know how to value some of these guys. the college pitchers they've brought in don't have high prospect rankings to pump their value, but their results have been good. What's Christian MacLeod worth on the trade market? or CJ Culpepper?

Maybe the time is right to bundle up a couple of these guys and take a swing.

[Otaknam]

The trade for one year of Cease only makes sense if the team is poised for a serious playoff run, AND it includes Vasquez and 2 prospects not named EROD, Keaschall, Jenkins, Raya or Soto. Festa, Matthews, Morris, etc. are intriguing young starters, but none of them are can’t miss. But unless the stars can stay healthy for once, and the younger players get better, this team can’t make a strong playoff run, making a Cease trade unnecessary.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I really wonder what the Padres would be asking for in return.

The fact that they are willing to deal him in the offseason indicates that they are probably looking to "cash in" on whatever value he has left. In my mind, it seems very similar to the Juan Soto to NYY trade, where they cashed in on Soto's value, reduced their payroll, and filled several holes in their roster.

Unfortunately for the Twins, there are plenty of holes in the roster, so we're not exactly in a position to trade two or three MLB or MLB-ready players. If that's what San Diego is seeking, I'm almost certain they'll find a better deal with the Orioles, Rangers, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, or any of the other teams with a bevy of controllable position players.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Aerodeliria said:

Every year around this time, an article or two will spin this type of rumor but they never really bear any fruit it seems, except once when the Twins landed Nelson Cruz. That is the only time in my memory where one of these rumors came to pass, and that (I'm afraid to say) was driven (IMHO) primarily by Cruz waiting around too long for a better offer, so when none came about he was stuck with either the Rays or the Twins.

Schoop, was a teammate of Cruz, IMO his influence is what did it for us.

[saviking]

I'm going to send out a cease and desist order ..

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If any team should be in win now mode it’s the Padres.  It’s hard to believe the Padres are willing to trade Cease.  They lost Profar and Ha-Seong Kim this year and they will lose Arraez next year.  
They also have very significant obligations to aging players.  Machado will turn 33 this year and he is under contract for the next 9 seasons.  He is only making $17M this year but his salary goes to $25M in 2026 and $39M for the following 7 years.   That’s likely to be ugly.  Darish will turn 39 this year.  He has four years and $77M remaining.  Joe Musgrove just turned 32 so he’s not that old but he only produced 1.4 WAR last year.  

Their two best pitchers by far were Cease and King.  They are both free agents next year.  This year is likely going to be their best shot for the next several years.   They won’t be freeing up a bunch of payroll either.  King and Arrez make $22M combined and Machado increases by $8M in 2026 and $22M in 2027.  How does trading away your best SP improve your chances of winning?  Makes you wonder if they question his health or do they see the writing on the wall and are looking to rebuild.  
 

Man, Preller gets worse and worse the more I hear about him.

This is a perfect summation of the situation. Yes, King and Cease are free agents next year but it would be insane not to take a run until at least the deadline.  Wheeler dealer Preller is more than capable of swinging things then.

It almost feels like they need to package one of the bad contracts with Cease to get some flexibility. That rules me out.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Man, Preller gets worse and worse the more I hear about him.

This is a perfect summation of the situation. Yes, King and Cease are free agents next year but it would be insane not to take a run until at least the deadline.  Wheeler dealer Preller is more than capable of swinging things then.

It almost feels like they need to package one of the bad contracts with Cease to get some flexibility. That rules me out.

I agree. I think the only way they move Cease or King is to move another bad contract to give them room to maneuver. I don't think the Twins will be a good partner for them.

Also the Twins act more like Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa who typically flip players with one or two years left for players with more control not the other way around. 

If I felt the Twins were a very complete team and just needed a boost to make noise in the playoffs I could maybe see an anomaly Cease trade, but the teams offense stunk last year and they lost one of their best hitters last year in Santana with no replacement so far.  They barely finished above .500.  I don't think one year of Cease is going to fix anything by depleting the farm of controllable assets.

I know that is a pessimistic view, but I would wait until I see what this team can do by the deadline before potentially squandering assets that might turn into something almost as good down the line with more years of control.

[tony&rodney]

FWIW, the notion that Cease will sign a long term contract with the Twins (if acquired) is truly remote. He will want to see his value on the market. Cease will hit free agency at nearly the same age as Corbin Burnes and their last four years of pitching have nearly the same value. If Cease has a strong year he will receive a contract similar to or exceeding the deal Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks. Expect 6 years and $210 million as a baseline with more if deferrals are a part of the deal. Cease is going to free agency as surely as Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes. And why wouldn't he? He picks where he wants to play and how much he wants to make.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Every year around this time, an article or two will spin this type of rumor but they never really bear any fruit it seems, except once when the Twins landed Nelson Cruz. That is the only time in my memory where one of these rumors came to pass, and that (I'm afraid to say) was driven (IMHO) primarily by Cruz waiting around too long for a better offer, so when none came about he was stuck with either the Rays or the Twins.

Cruz signed on Jan 6th, so it's not like he was super late in the FA period, and signed a market-rate deal. As I recall, there wasn't as much demand for DH-only hitters (NL hadn't adopted it yet), especially for ones who were turning 38, but I also recall the Twins targeting him, so it's not like we were just the last seat available when the music stopped.

[amjgt]

Just a random thought since deferrals came up....

The Twins could theoretically make their free agent offers (assuming they start doing those again eventually) more appealing with some deferrals. It's a way to avoid tax obligations if the player sets up their permanent residence in a low/no tax state prior to the deferred payments starting to roll in. 

I think state taxes get a LITTLE overblown, but it's certainly a big deal to some people.

[bean5302]

Great pitching beats great hitting, especially in the playoffs. There are probably about 20 teams "interested" in Dylan Cease. Just because the Twins are interested doesn't mean a deal can be made.

[Brandon]

having one of the top 2 pitching staffs in the game is a great way to win a lot of games.  go get Cease and Desist and keep more runs off the board.