Week in Review: Break's Over, Crunch Time Begins

The Weekly Nutshell:
Last year, the Minnesota Twins came out of the All-Star break with a thud. Chris Paddack coughed up four first-inning runs en route to a 6-4 loss against a Rockies team that was 40 games below .500 — the beginning of the end. This year's second half opened on a very different note, with the Twins taking down a Cubs team that was 10 games above .500 in a crisply played 5-2 victory. Minnesota's 48th win finally got them back to the .500 mark, a milestone they've been chasing since April. 

They didn't stay there for long. The Twins dropped the second and third games at Wrigley, including an ugly blowout loss on Sunday, closing out the week with a 49-51 record through 100 games. Still, taking one of three against a quality Cubs team is hardly a disastrous outcome, and the Twins now head to Cleveland for a key four-game set against a Guardians team just three games ahead of them in the AL Central standings. With the trade deadline only two weeks away, every game looms large.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/13 through Sun, 7/19
***
Record Last Week: 1-2 (Overall: 49-51)
Run Differential Last Week: -10 (Overall: -24)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (4.0 GB) 

Latest Game Results

Game 98 | Twins 5, Cubs 2: Ober Gets It Done Again, Jeffers Delivers Big Homer

• Jeffers: 1-4, HR, 3 RBI

Game 99 | Cubs 6, Twins 2: Clemens Supplies Sole Offense as Bradley Struggles

• Bradley: 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 7 K

Game 100 | Cubs 10, Twins 1: Matthews Crushed by Cubs in Rubber Match Blowout

• Matthews: 3 IP, 10 R (8 ER), 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K

NEWS & NOTES

Cole Sands looks to be nearing a return from an injured list stint that has cost him nearly half the season. After having his rehab moved to the FCL during the All-Star break, he reported back to Triple-A over the weekend, throwing two scoreless innings for the Saints on Friday. Sands struck out three with one walk and one hit allowed, throwing 35 pitches as he ramps back up toward readiness. As long as he's feeling good, I'd expect Sands to be activated within the next week. 

Garrett Acton is fairly deep into his own rehab and on track to be activated soon, although it's not as clear he'll be added right back onto the big-league roster. Marco Raya also started a rehab assignment, less than 10 days after going on the IL with a shoulder impingement, suggesting the injury is (hopefully) not too serious. 

Connor Prielipp, who went on the IL shortly before the break due to a blister, pitched three scoreless innings for the Saints on Sunday. I'd expect his next appearance to come with the Twins. 

HIGHLIGHTS

Before he went down with a fractured hamate in mid-May, Ryan Jeffers had a reasonable case for being the Twins MVP, which is saying a lot for a team that also boasts an All-Star center fielder and #1 starter. In just a handful of games since being activated, he has wasted no time reminding us all of just how impactful he can be. 

Jeffers notched a key two-run double in the final game before the All-Star break and then launched a three-run homer in the first game coming out. His third-inning shot off Colin Rea on Friday proved to be the difference in a three-run victory. Jeffers owns a .409 wOBA on the season, putting him in the realm of the greatest offensive seasons we've ever seen from Twins catchers. Mitch Garver had a .404 wOBA in 2019, and Joe Mauer had a .438 wOBA in his MVP 2009 season. We've been blessed to watch some truly marvelous hitting performances from catchers in Twins uniforms, and hopefully there's more of that to come with Vahn Lackey entering the pipeline. (The top draft pick has already reportedly agreed to terms.)

One of the most positive developments of this season is how well Luke Keaschall has taken to the outfield. He was struggling mightily in the field at second base and seemed to be taking it to the plate with him, posting a meager .663 OPS at the position. Since shifting to the grass, he's looked much more natural defensively and his bat has come to life. Keaschall is hitting .347 as an outfielder and his prowess was on full display on Friday, when he picked up two hits and a walk while making multiple spectacular plays in center field. (He also made a very non-spectacular play in center on Sunday, reminding us that he still needs some refinement out there despite the flashes of ability.)

Bailey Ober delivered a strong start to open the second half, holding Chicago to two runs over 5 ⅓ innings, and the bullpen shut things down from there with Tommy Nance, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez teaming up to get the last 11 outs with zero runs and one hit allowed. Gómez picked up his 12th save in as many tries while Morris lowered his ERA to 3.26 with a 16th consecutive scoreless appearance. 

Twins relievers continued to put in good work the rest of the weekend, with Mike Paredes, Kendry Rojas, Travis Adams, Kody Funderburk and Woo-Suk Go holding the Cubs to one run in eight frames between Saturday and Sunday. The Twins bullpen has a collective 2.25 ERA here in July, ranking among the league's best after posting an MLB-worst 6.94 mark in June. And they're on the verge of getting back Sands, which could be big if he can get back to anything resembling his 2024 form.

LOWLIGHTS

Not such good work from the Minnesota rotation over the remainder of the weekend. Twins starters didn't give the team much of a chance to win this series after Ober's solid effort in game one. Taj Bradley hit a bump in the road on Saturday, allowing five earned runs allowed over five innings to halt his hot streak, and Zebby Matthews totally unraveled on Sunday, surrendering 10 runs (eight earned) in three innings of work. It's been a rough month of July for Matthews, who's been tagged for 16 earned runs in 13 ⅔ innings with nine walks and 12 strikeouts. Very disappointing to see after the righty seemed to be settling into a groove in June. 

Despite digging an early hole on Saturday, the Twins had a chance to mount a threat late. They had a rally brewing in the ninth inning before a volley of baserunning blunders blotted out their hopes for a thrilling comeback. Down 5-1, the offense produced three consecutive hits to open the final frame and then ... this happened:

It was a glaring display of a blatant shortcoming on this roster: speed. The three players on base during this debacle — Josh Bell, Victor Caratini and Brooks Lee — are all extremely slow, and it showed here. For a team hoping to scrap its way into unlikely contention, these types of executional meltdowns can not really be afforded. In general, the plodding Twins are getting dusted on the bases, with opponents going 13-for-15 on steals over the past month while Minnesota's gone 8-for-16. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

Byron Buxton was not ready to return to the roster coming out of the break, despite being eligible 10 days after landing on the injured list. That makes it official that this flare-up of his hip injury is more serious than those that sidelined him for a few days in the past. With that said, it doesn't look like Buxton is too far off from re-entering the fold. Dan Hayes of The Athletic snapped footage of the sidelined center fielder performing various on-field baseball activities ahead of Friday's game, and Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune indicates that Buxton is likely to rejoin the active roster in Cleveland.

The Twins face important decisions with Buxton moving forward. He's their best player and their leader, pivotal to their chances of mounting a charge in the second half. But this hip thing does not seem to be going away. The team needs to be very careful in handling him and maximizing his chances of staying on the field. 

Maybe that contributed to the decision to keep him out of action in Chicago. When he does come back, as soon as Monday, it would probably behoove the team to incorporate some preventative measures. Fewer steal attempts is a given. Maybe more action at DH? That's easier said than done with Bell occupying the position full-time.

Buxton's absence from the lineup has been noticeable for a Twins team that his totaled just six home runs in nine games since he last played. They need him to get back in the lineup and stay there. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Big, big series in Cleveland on tap. The Twins will open with their ace, Joe Ryan, who is fresh off throwing a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game. They'll also throw Ober and Bradley in the series; it's anyone's guess who will get the nod on Tuesday, which could end up being a bullpen game. Prielipp should presumably be back to start in the second open spot on Sunday.

MONDAY, JULY 20: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Tanner Bibee
TUESDAY, JULY 21: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — TBD v. LHP Parker Messick
WEDNESDAY, JULY 22: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Slade Cecconi
THURSDAY, JULY 23: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP Gavin Williams
FRIDAY, JULY 24: ATHLETICS @ TWINS — RHP J.T. Ginn v. RHP Zebby Matthews
SATURDAY, JULY 25: ATHLETICS @ TWINS — LHP Jacob Lopez v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, JULY 26: ATHLETICS @ TWINS — LHP Jeffrey Springs v. TBD