Why on Earth Would the Minnesota Twins Trade For Dylan Cease?

[arby58]

4 hours ago, gmwannabe said:

If you can aquire an ace you give SD what they want. SD is looking for salary relief so I think the Twins have to pay down 5 million of Vasquez's salary rather than giving SD more trade capital. I'm thinking Larnach, Vasquez, and Matthews would get it done. Use Castro in left until the trade deadline and hopefully E-Rod takes over. Of course the Twins will have to move Paddock to pay for Cease with the 5 million they save on Vasquez combined with the 3 million they would save by trading Castro at the deadline.

I highly doubt that would be enough for the Padres. I expect they want at least an MLB pitcher in addition to what you've suggested.

[gman]

I don't think the Twins are in a position to outbid other teams for Cease. They could out bid some "also ran" if nobody else was trying to acquire Cease.  But to deal a lot of prospect capital without a supporting budget for at least a division winner, could set the team back several years.

I've seen too many deals where it was better to be the loser in the trade competition than the winner.

[BoxersRule13]

You nailed it 100%. Can never have too much good starting pitching. Cease would be a GREAT get.

[MinnesotaTwins26]

Why on earth would the Padres want to trade for Christian Vazquez?

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Actually if you look at the age of their players, and the money owed over the upcoming years, it may be the ideal time for them to clean house and rebuild with younger players from the Twins and other teams now or at the deadline.  Can you imaging the Yankees or Bosox passing on players like Muchado, Arreaz or Darvish if they are key to them advancing in the playoffs?

I completely agree and said in my earlier post "unless the see the writing on the wall" and begin to rebuild.  Actually, it's probably the prudent move because they might be looking at a prolonged period of being quite bad if they allow those assets to become worthless.  I think they are already at the point nobody is taking Machado with his salary being $25M next year and then 7 years at $39M.

I sure hope the twins would not be willing to trade away good/cheap young players or even highly regarded prospects for a rental.  Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa have been far more successful than other modest revenue teams by doing just the opposite, and I am pretty sure Falvey is aware of this history.   

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

I highly doubt that would be enough for the Padres. I expect they want at least an MLB pitcher in addition to what you've suggested.

Agreed. My guess is Festa + Kala'i Rosario + Prielipp or something like that.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Why on earth would the Twins trade for Cease? The answer to the question is: They won't. 

This is Falvey's idea of being creative, having a few rumors swirl around. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Anyway imo this is now a dead rumor. The rumor started around Vazquez. The Padres yesterday signed Elias Diaz making SD's immediate interest in Vazquez not there.

[bjorks]

 

Falvey's promotion, even if it was done knowing the team was about to announce they're selling, he's done exactly what they hired him to do, which is to build a minor league system of developing pitching. Yes, there's more to it and there's certainly warts, but Cease is a Boras client and what a better way to appease Correa and the fan base than to make every effort to get and potentially extend. If you can get cheap quality for potential quality I like the relative known commodity. 

I'm forced to somewhat pay attention the Suns living in Scottsdale, but if the rumors are true the Ishbia's are the leader in the clubhouse they're going to make a splash (see Kevin Durant). If other rumors are true that former and local players/athletes could be 1%'s you don't think they're (Mauer/Morneau/et al.) going to potentially voice "issues" they had with the Pohlad's is what we perceive as frugalness? Maybe it's wishful thinking, but if the sale is as close as being reported, it's in the hands of legal and Ishbia's stock in the Sox is probably one of the final holdups. Maybe it's not Cease, maybe it's not until the trade deadline, and maybe it's not until next year. Point being is when Mat bought the Suns, they spent money and it's been widely reported, it's monopoly money to them so to speak. This isn't an investment per say, but pure vanity. We need to pray Justin Ishbia buys the Twins. At a minimum the payroll will go back to if not well above $150. Ishbia's are no dummies and getting the local athletes to be a part is genius. Spend some money, use the athletes to help market, and Target Field could be a hard ticket to get. 

 

 

[arby58]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Agreed. My guess is Festa + Kala'i Rosario + Prielipp or something like that.

I think it is even more. At the least, they will want a proven MLB starting pitcher, at least SWR, and probably the rest of your haul.

[KirbyDome89]

"Trading for Cease would certainly cost them one of Louie Varland, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, and Marco Raya, and quite possibly two of them, as part of a package. but whoever stuck around would be free either or convert to the bullpen or to continue refining their craft in St Paul.

Consider that for a moment: Marco Raya, one of the Twins’ best prospects, would be their likely eighth option. Name one other team with that combination of high-end pitching on the big-league club, and four additional legit starting prospects at Triple A. I bet you can’t do it, and the Twins wouldn't even be especially likely to need all that depth."

Who are the 4 legit starting prospects? Matthews certainly wasn't last year. Varland isn't a starter, and might not even be a usable reliever. Raya averaged less than 4 innings per "start," in the minors last season. Morris has a whopping 10 starts outside of A ball. Soooo Festa? Yeah, I think most teams can match that. For a team that's supposed to have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to "depth," it took one injury to a SP in August to send things off the rails last season. 

[twinstalker]

Keaschall is going to be better than EmRod.  Again, give them Raya, K. Culpepper, and DeBarge, guys ranked highly who aren't going to do anything much.  And if the Padres don't want them, well, people should re-evaluate their prospect list.  But MLB has those three as 5, 4, and 9, respectively.  Raya and DeBarge will probably suffice.

[mluebker]

Sounds good to me. More guys on the mound who genuinely can miss bats to mitigate the uncertainty of whoever’s filling in for Correa and Buxton, and a hypothetical everyday second baseman.

[dex8425]

23 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

FWIW, the notion that Cease will sign a long term contract with the Twins (if acquired) is truly remote. He will want to see his value on the market. Cease will hit free agency at nearly the same age as Corbin Burnes and their last four years of pitching have nearly the same value. If Cease has a strong year he will receive a contract similar to or exceeding the deal Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks. Expect 6 years and $210 million as a baseline with more if deferrals are a part of the deal. Cease is going to free agency as surely as Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes. And why wouldn't he? He picks where he wants to play and how much he wants to make.

Twins get a comp pick if that happens though, which is valuable. 

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

Twins get a comp pick if that happens though, which is valuable. 

Yes, of course. I was responding to ideas that the Twins could sign Cease to a long term contract if he was acquired. Any extension is against extremely remote odds.

[Aerodeliria]

On 1/30/2025 at 2:27 AM, jmlease1 said:

Cruz signed on Jan 6th, so it's not like he was super late in the FA period, and signed a market-rate deal. As I recall, there wasn't as much demand for DH-only hitters (NL hadn't adopted it yet), especially for ones who were turning 38, but I also recall the Twins targeting him, so it's not like we were just the last seat available when the music stopped.

I stand corrected. It seemed like it took forever and a day. I guess the discussion started earlier than I thought. Nevertheless, one must admit that this is the outlier for the Twins, not the rule...