Why the Twins Might Need to Trade Carlos Correa

[Cody Christie]

The Twins need to find a way to make payroll space for 2025 and beyond. Is trading the team’s best player a way to extend the team’s winning window?

 

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Major decisions are looming over the franchise as the Twins head into the offseason. After another year of disappointment, ownership and the front office face the dilemma of maintaining a competitive roster while dealing with budget constraints. One option that could shift the team’s trajectory is trading their star shortstop, Carlos Correa. It’s not an easy decision, but given the organization’s current financial outlook and Correa’s recent injury history, it could be forced upon them.

This past winter, Twins ownership boldly decided to lower the team’s payroll by $30 million. The writing on the wall seems even murkier with uncertainty about the team’s television future and a drop in attendance in 2024. Heading into 2025, reports indicate that the payroll will remain around the same level as last year, hovering at the bottom half of the league’s spending rankings.

For a mid-market team like Minnesota, a stagnant payroll poses significant challenges. The Twins don’t have the luxury of stockpiling marquee free agents every offseason, meaning the front office must get creative with how they allocate resources. With Correa slated to earn $37.3 million next season, he represents a sizable portion of that budget. The question the Twins must ask themselves is whether that investment makes sense for a team that might be considering a soft rebuild.

Ignoring Correa’s importance is impossible when he’s on the field. After an impressive All-Star season in 2024, he showed why he remains one of the most elite shortstops in the game. His glove is still one of the league’s best up-the-middle options, and his bat flashed the form that made him a key cog in Houston’s World Series runs. He combined for a 152 OPS+, his highest total since 2017. Defensively, his OAA ranked in the 87th percentile, a 22-point jump compared to 2023.  Yet, it’s also hard to overlook the fact that injuries have impacted Correa in each of his two years with the Twins.

In 2023, a nagging plantar fasciitis injury hampered his production down the stretch. In 2024, he missed significant time again, with plantar fasciitis impacting his other foot, and it caused him to miss most of the season's final two months. Though his early-season numbers were All-Star caliber, the durability concerns are hard to ignore when projecting his future value.

The Twins could be looking at a scenario where they’re paying top dollar for a player who might not be available for the long haul. For a team aiming to contend every year, that’s a risk you take. But for a team looking to reset? That’s a luxury they might not be able to afford.

Correa’s contract includes a full no-trade clause, a significant hurdle for any potential deal. However, there are a few scenarios in which Correa might be willing to waive it. The most obvious one involves the Twins being honest with him about the state of the franchise. If the front office communicates that the club is headed toward a rebuilding phase, Correa could recognize that his prime years would be better spent elsewhere. He may also be frustrated about how the team has collapsed in two of his three seasons with the club. If the Twins are going in a new direction, Correa may be willing to go to a team with a better chance of winning in the short term. 

Correa signed with the Twins in part because he believed the team was on the verge of sustained success. If that vision no longer aligns with reality, he could opt for a chance to win another championship. Teams like the Dodgers or Yankees, with their financial flexibility and championship aspirations, would undoubtedly be interested in adding an elite shortstop. Given the size of his contract and injury concerns, the Twins might not get a king’s ransom for him, but they could net some valuable prospects to jumpstart a rebuild or help extend their winning window. 

The decision to trade Correa won’t be easy, but it may be necessary. Perhaps this is the move that could finally get the organization moving in the right direction, even if it means saying goodbye to their franchise player. If the Twins truly intend to reset, parting ways with their star shortstop may be the cost of doing business in a league that rewards flexibility and future planning over sentimentality.

Is Correa untradeable? Are the Twins forced to be creative this winter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Absolutely not.

[kroll]

Go Tigers!

[S Bart]

What team would want to trade for him with his high salary, repetitive foot issues, and record with the ankle problem which resulted in others rejecting him.?

I don't quite comprehend this notion.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think trading him extends the team's winning window.

I mean, are they in that window now? You'd have to trade the one star player and then use the money to sign, what, four non-star players? So basically you'd have to get lucky and acquire four Carlos Santanas instead of Santana, Margot, Vazquez and DeSclafani. That parley NEVER pays off.

[glunn]

I would speak with him to ask if he is open to such a trade.  If he is open, then maybe a major market team might be willing to take the injury risk.  Nothing to lose from asking.

[Cory Engelhardt]

No dot gif

[rv78]

Should have never signed him in the first place. Over-rated and over-paid.

[Beast]

This team has won one play in series against a bad team in over two decades.  There is no real winning window.  Never has been, probably never will be.

Trading one of the best postseason performers in baseball history, and far and away the team’s best player (offensively and defensively) wouldn’t extend this imaginary window.

What could this team do with that money that would significantly improve this team?  You’d basically swap him out for one good free agent starter and reliever, and have Brooks Lee play short?  3-4 mediocre role players (we already have 100 of them)?  Sign Royce Lewis to an even worse contract?  Getting and keeping Correa healthy is their only hope of being even a marginal playoff contender (just forget an ALCS or World Series).  Does anyone have any confidence that they wouldn’t just load up on Logan Morrisons and Manuel Margots?

There is no winning here without spending more money on legitimate players.  Plain and simple.

Good luck with the couple of fans that they haven’t run off yet if you bail on Correa now.

The sad thing is, this year may have been the easiest path through the AL playoff bracket that we’ll ever see again in our lifetimes.  They were getting career performances from nearly everybody for a large portion of the season.  By cheaping out like cowards, they’ve already slammed the window shut.  It was only cracked to vent the smoke from the ownership dumpster fire anyway.

[Beast]

12 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Should have never signed him in the first place. Over-rated and over-paid.

Correa feels the same way, I’m sure.  He could be playing for real baseball franchise right now for the same money, instead of the Savannah Bananas minus the dancing and fan engagement.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As your justification for trading Correa, you point out all of the issues that make him essentially untradable - and that’s before you even get to the no trade clause.  Doesn’t seem likely.  

[Parfigliano]

They aren't traded him.   The guy is a home run.  

Build

[LastOnePicked]

"Is Correa untradeable?"

Yes. Yes he is. Few teams wanted take on that salary after the red flags raised by medical assessments made during his free agent year. And now, after two years of foot injuries that have derailed his seasons? Absolutely not.

No one else would take Buxton or Correa. They are ours. If the Pohlads were smart, they'd embrace that, bolster the roster around them and try to make one last playoff run with this dinged-up duo. Otherwise, they're just going to rot away on a perpetually "retooling" fourth-place club.

 

[ashbury]

While I can't root against my Twins, I still would find it darkly hilarious if the Pohlad family, whose fortune got its start through Depression era farm foreclosures, winds up "right-sizing" their Twins payroll by selling valuable assets like Correa's contract for pennies on the dollar, in a "distressed assets auction" type of scenario, receiving next to nothing in return just to get it off their books.  They'd be basically foreclosing on themselves, or more specifically one of their wholly-owned subsidiaries. 

Even then the irony will be bitter-tinged because, unlike those farmers, they do have sufficient resources such that they can choose to ride it out, but just won't because they are incapable of running a loss - it's simply not how things are done by civilized folks, dontchaknowit.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

They trade Correa and my fandom card which has been active since 1986 is officially shredded. I'd be done with this team.

[thelanges5]

Nope. 

[S Bart]

25 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

"Is Correa untradeable?"

Yes. Yes he is. Few teams wanted take on that salary after the red flags raised by medical assessments made during his free agent year. And now, after two years of foot injuries that have derailed his seasons? Absolutely not.

No one else would take Buxton or Correa. They are ours. If the Pohlads were smart, they'd embrace that, bolster the roster around them and try to make one last playoff run with this dinged-up duo. Otherwise, they're just going to rot away on a perpetually "retooling" fourth-place club.

 

Well, is it possible to trade Baldelli? 

[Tibs]

Yikes

[Parfigliano]

Trade Correa?  Dumb. Dumb

[GNess]

 No! A team rarely if ever improves by trading their best player and leader.

[Jocko87]

Tis the silly season.  Good reminder to be away from this place for awhile.  

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, S Bart said:

Well, is it possible to trade Baldelli?

Possibly to the Saints. For a coach to be named later.

[h2oface]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

If the Pohlads were smart, they'd embrace that, bolster the roster around them and try to make one last playoff run with this dinged-up duo. Otherwise, they're just going to rot away on a perpetually "retooling" fourth-place club.

If the Pohlads were smart, they would sell the team and take the money and use it to make more of their precious fortune in a different "business".

And sell it to a guy that has even more money, and wants to have fun and doesn't need it to be a "business" of this sort, and makes it a hobby to have fun with until he dies....... and spends for enjoyment, and to win.

[mikelink45]

Next articles  -  trade Buxton, trade Lopez, we already had the unlikely trade Vasquez.  How about writing about the playoffs that are still going strong and leave these speculations for winter. 

[CRF]

Nah...even if it was a good idea...which it isn't...they'd screw it up anyway. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Here’s the statistical analysis behind Cody’s argument to support the idea.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2023/02/pay-to-play-an-analysis-of-payroll-and-performance-in-the-mlb-and-nba/
 

the thrust of the article is higher payroll = more wins, but for teams lower on the payroll list, a more evenly distributed roster salary wins more than those with salary concentrated in few players and low for most all.

As ash pointed out, how they execute matters, because dumping Correa hurts the team while more evenly distributing the salary among the team.

[Jim wyllie]

I understand why trading him might make sense, however with injuries the last 2 seasons he is likely currently untraceable til he has at least 1 full healthy good season

[dxpavelka]

Trading your best player doesn't make you better.  KG, Moss, Rod Carew, Blylevin.  Has never worked.  KAT will likely prove more of the same. Moving Correa is NOT a good idea.  Figure out how to NOT make this move.

[rv78]

The fact that Correa had to have a no trade clause and the fact that there would probably only be a couple teams (Yankees, Dodgers) that would take on his contract prove that the Twins over-paid for him. Throw in the fact that he has only had 2 seasons in his 10 year career where he played more than 140 games also shows he is not a player that can be relied on. Buxton is even worse. I highly doubt the Yankees or Dodgers would be interested in him or they would have out-bid the Twins when he was available to start with. They knew he wasn't worth that amount of money, so yes they could take on his contract, but won't. The Twins have made their bed for the next 4 years trying to build around 2 part-time players. If they are now in a financial bind that is no ones fault but their own. $73M tied to 3 players in 2025 with a $130M payroll is the reality they have to work with. If their prospects cannot hit, or play fundamental baseball, or sustain enough energy to play a full season, or play against opposite throwing pitchers (lefty-righty matchups), that is of their own making. This is their team. Can anyone here really call it successful? Sorry, I don't see it. If you are trying to win now, you don't bring in players like Gallo or Margot or pitchers like Mahle or DeSclafani or Jay Jackson. They seriously don't know what they are doing, and until they actually win something meaningful beyond 1 playoff series and then go in the opposite direction the following season, my mind won't change.

[Whitey333]

I doubt they will trade Correa.  But I agree with the premise of the article.  With Correa, Buxton, and Lopez you will have 3 players taking up almost 60% of the allotted 130 million payroll.  Seems unworkable.