Randy Dobnak Has Earned His Way Back

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins entered the season with questionable starting pitching depth. That is now being tested, and a familiar face deserves an opportunity.

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Randy Dobnak’s story is well documented. An Uber driver turned 2019 postseason starter in New York against the Yankees, it’s been a while since we have seen him in a Twins uniform. Out of the big leagues since 2021, the 29-year-old is now a dad with a whole new bag of tricks.

Although he has missed portions of recent seasons and dealt with a finger ligament issue that sapped his effectiveness, he couldn’t look better than he does right now. The fastball has never been his go-to pitch, but he’s sitting around 93 mph this season and pairing it with an enhanced changeup. After spending countless hours in the lab this offseason, the changeup was shown off this spring, and he’s throwing it nearly 30% of the time.

Pitching for the Saints this season, Dobnak is seeing more than just positive surface level results. With a chase rate above 32%, he is forcing opposing hitters to expand the zone at a near-career-high rate. His 12.5% whiff rate is well above his career average, and his 23% strikeout rate is solid as well. A ground ball master, Dobnak has gotten that part of his game back as well, inducing balls on the ground nearly 60% of the time.

All of these results also come with the caveat that it was a slow start to the year. As he looked to settle in with the new repertoire, Dobnak owned a 5.96 ERA across his first 25 2/3 innings. The strikeouts were there, but so too were walks and too much contact. However, across his last 15 outings, a period of 74 innings, Dobnak owns a 2.80 ERA with 73 strikeouts. Since his 10-strikeout game on June 15, Dobnak has ripped off a run of eight starts with a 1.70 ERA.

When Chris Paddack went on the shelf with a forearm strain for the Twins, an opening popped up in the rotation. That was handed to top pitching prospect David Festa, who struggled in his first two turns. He was great following Steven Okert’s mess as the opener, and he certainly earned another chance after besting a tough Phillies lineup. Beyond that though, Dobnak has all but forced his way back in.

This isn’t just a fun story anymore, and Dobnak isn’t out to make a brief appearance. As was the case before an odd injury that changed his career trajectory, he is capable of showing that there’s a high-quality big league pitcher ready to compete. The Twins would need to make room on the 40-man roster, and that’s difficult with the current construction. Still, Dobnak is on a five-year deal that runs through 2025 and includes two team options. Finding a way to explore a full-circle moment should be part of the plan.

It shouldn’t be difficult to root for a guy who has dealt with so much adversity and continued to work his way through it. It becomes a whole lot easier to call for a move when the performance warrants it as well. It’s not difficult to argue that Dobnak has been one of the best pitchers across Minnesota’s entire system this season. That may not have been expected, but it’s now the reality that we’re dealing with.

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[Karbo]

I don't see an opening on the 40 man at this time. We'll see what happens with the trade deadline (if anything) in a few days.

[Doctor Gast]

Dobbie has merited his chance to ascended to MLB again in this recent decent run. IMO the Twins no longer see him as a long-term addition. So to put him back on the roster, only to DFA him & possibly lose him while still on the hook. Many teams could use him long-term including the Twins, so if the Twins aren't going to bring him up they should actively shop him. Yet again they might bring him up & claim that he is as good as any trade deal.

[DJL44]

I guarantee if another GM called this week and offered to take on the contract that Dobnak would be in a different uniform immediately.

[Fatbat]

Dobber would be as good as any trade not named Scherzer. Just takes one 60 day IL stint by someone on the 40 and we could slide him right into MLB again. 

[Dman]

He looks like he is back and his K rate is the highest it has ever been at the upper levels so he has found ways to get more strikeouts. Recently the walks have been down. His FIP and xFIP aren't too far off of his ERA. Still it's a lot of ground balls and when they find holes he can get in trouble pretty fast.

 

Season	Team	Level	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP
2024	MIN	AAA	99.2	9.21	3.88	0.81	0.325	72.30%	59.20%	15.50%	3.61	4.18	4.08

 

In the International league for qualified players he is 3rd in ERA and Strikeouts. So clearly one of the better pitchers at the AAA level.  And yet I still have some reservations that his stuff plays at the MLB level.  The only way to find out though I guess would be to have him play at the MLB level.  I'll leave the decision to those who have more data, but yeah he looks like he has earned a shot. The only problem is 40 man spots are in short supply and he only looks to have 5th starter upside.  It feels like it would take a fair number of number of injuries for Randy to be considered at this point. I guess we wait and see what happens.

[darin617]

He's behind Varland and Zebby Matthews in St Paul for starters to get promoted. If any MLB team asked about him the Twins would let them have him as long as they paid the entire contract. Probably wouldn't even ask for anything in return.

[Guest]

Soooo, the Twins don't have to be aggressive buyers for an SP at the trade deadline then?

[bean5302]

47 minutes ago, darin617 said:

He's behind Varland and Zebby Matthews in St Paul for starters to get promoted. If any MLB team asked about him the Twins would let them have him as long as they paid the entire contract. Probably wouldn't even ask for anything in return.

I'd be surprised if Varland was on the depth chart as a starter at all right now. He's been pretty awful as a starter, even at AAA this year.

[mnfireman]

47 minutes ago, darin617 said:

He's behind Varland and Zebby Matthews in St Paul for starters to get promoted. If any MLB team asked about him the Twins would let them have him as long as they paid the entire contract. Probably wouldn't even ask for anything in return.

Maybe Varland, Zebby has only had 1 start at AAA. 

[bean5302]

I do think Dobnak has earned his way back into an MLB rotation. I talked about it a few weeks ago. Even going back to the start of May, Dobnak owns a 2.80 ERA in 74.0 IP, though his FIP looked quite a bit rougher until June.

I think it's tough to find a spot in the rotation for him since the front office has apparently decided to roll with David Festa who is on the 40 man. Festa hasn't been great in AAA, but at least showed some potential against the Phillies with an adequate underlying performance that churned out great results. 

[Jocko87]

30 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Soooo, the Twins don't have to be aggressive buyers for an SP at the trade deadline then?

Not for the Dallas Kuechel role, no. 

[Linus]

I’m happy that he has put himself back in the conversation at least. Great story. 

[FlyingFinn]

I see Dobnak as now the pitcher that could called upon for a spot start. Then he would be DFA'd, clear waivers (nobody is taking on his contract at this point), and be back in St. Paul.

[HerbieFan]

With Varland and Paddack inevitably headed to the bullpen in 2024, Henriquez is an easy DFA for me.  Unless they give Farmer the Joey Gallo treatment and put him on the 60 day IL with his "injury"

[LA Vikes Fan]

Having Dobnak on this run, Festa showing well against Philly, and Matthews’ great performance this year on his way up the chain should eliminate the need to trade for a back end innings eater fifth starter mediocre veteran type. We can fill that role through these three guys and who knows, maybe Varland will find it again, too. Alll of this is a real step forward 
 

That doesn’t mean we don’t need another starting pitcher. We do if only to improve our trajectory and give us a chance to win the division. Winning the division and getting the second seed is a possibility this year and we should go for hard since that makes the playoff run much, much easier. It gets us a bye and probably keeps us away from the Yankees in the second round. I hope We are competing for Anderson or even Kikuchi to upgrade the rotation with a middle of the rotation type guy. If we can’t do at least that well, there’s no point in trading for a veteran starter just to eat innings on the backend. Dobnak and Festa (probably as a bulk after an opener) can do that, And Matthews and even Caleb Bousley, can you give us a starter two down the stretch.

Count me in on the “trade for a starter with at least Ober level performance or don’t trade for one at all” train. I might amend that to the “Ryan level” since frankly, Ober has been better than Ryan for the last month or so.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I guarantee if another GM called this week and offered to take on the contract that Dobnak would be in a different uniform immediately.

I disagree

[roger]

Wouldn't that be something if Dobber would make it back to the Twins.  I know nothing about his injury, other than it was something very unusual.  Seems like he has put that behind him and learned how to pitch with whatever is different post injury.

Is it possible his future is as a long reliever?  You know, 7th guy in the bullpen pecking order.  If so, he would be a relatively inexpensive arm in the pen going forward.

[jkcarew]

Emphatic no for me. Time to let the young guys with much higher upside go. Nothing against Dobnak…and he’s getting paid well for his efforts, for what he is.

[jkcarew]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I see Dobnak as now the pitcher that could called upon for a spot start. Then he would be DFA'd, clear waivers (nobody is taking on his contract at this point), and be back in St. Paul.

Quite possible.

[DocBauer]

If I only told you this, with no names attached... "However, across his last 15 outings, a period of 74 innings, "X" owns a 2.80 ERA with 73 strikeouts. Since his 10-strikeout game on June 15, "X" has ripped off a run of eight starts with a 1.70 ERA"...was a starting pitcher at St Paul right now, how many would be scrambling to know more and wonder why he wasn't up pitching for the Twins?

That's some really good production folks. And if Dobnak was healthy in 2022  and throwing like this, he wouldn't have been in AAA. 

Now, does his game and tweaks in stuff play at the ML level? No way to know unless he gets a shot. But those numbers would seem to indicate he deserves a shot, whether it be with the Twins or someone else. The problem,  as previously noted, is the 40 man. Is there a move that makes sense to make room for Dobnak to get that shot with the Twins this second half as a fill in  arm for rest of someone else,  or any further injury? That's not to say Varland or even Matthews  aren't viable options. I'm just restating it's not as easy as just saying he deserves a shot and should get one. 

It's nice to see a good guy make  a comeback and doing well. It would be a great chapter 2 in his story if he could make it back to MLB again as an effective back of the rotation starter. I think there's a reasonably good chance he gets a shot again. I just don't know if it's going to be with the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

It was fun to watch Dobnak twirl the ball the other night. He looks good. MLB is a really tough business though and the road to wearing the uniform is full of hazards; opportunities are scarce.

The Twins have given Varland a few shots at the starting role. He struggled quite a bit early this summer, but he has been pretty good lately. Festa is clearly a rising star with mixed results thus far. Matthews is lurking with a recent resume second to none. Dobnak is in a tough situation, which is all too common for AAA players. Hopefully, Randy Dobnak can play again in the big stadiums with a noisy crowd and all eyes on his performance.

[sun]

Damn the bureaucrats & red tape.

Randy! Randy! Randy!

He's the type that can beat the Yankees.

He's done his oart, now it's up to the FO to do theirs.

He's a late bloomer, so what?

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Still flummoxed as to why people think he's got some ungodly contract that would be a burden to take on.

He's owed ~$750,000 for the rest of this year and $3 million next year, and has 3 fairly inexpensive club options that would be well worth it if he can be a #5 starter. 

[IndianaTwin]

9 hours ago, Karbo said:

I don't see an opening on the 40 man at this time. We'll see what happens with the trade deadline (if anything) in a few days.

Kirilloff went on the 10-day IL on June 13, and we haven’t had any update. I’m guessing he could easily slide to the 60-day. 

[Twodogs]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

If I only told you this, with no names attached... "However, across his last 15 outings, a period of 74 innings, "X" owns a 2.80 ERA with 73 strikeouts. Since his 10-strikeout game on June 15, "X" has ripped off a run of eight starts with a 1.70 ERA"...was a starting pitcher at St Paul right now, how many would be scrambling to know more and wonder why he wasn't up pitching for the Twins?

That's some really good production folks. And if Dobnak was healthy in 2022  and throwing like this, he wouldn't have been in AAA. 

Now, does his game and tweaks in stuff play at the ML level? No way to know unless he gets a shot. But those numbers would seem to indicate he deserves a shot, whether it be with the Twins or someone else. The problem,  as previously noted, is the 40 man. Is there a move that makes sense to make room for Dobnak to get that shot with the Twins this second half as a fill in  arm for rest of someone else,  or any further injury? That's not to say Varland or even Matthews  aren't viable options. I'm just restating it's not as easy as just saying he deserves a shot and should get one. 

It's nice to see a good guy make  a comeback and doing well. It would be a great chapter 2 in his story if he could make it back to MLB again as an effective back of the rotation starter. I think there's a reasonably good chance he gets a shot again. I just don't know if it's going to be with the Twins.

I mean if there is an opening, you have to look at the production, right?  I mean I know many on here hold grudges when they think someone isn't up to par, but if he is currently out producing the other candidates then you have to give that guy the shot, right?  Maybe he is just a different pitcher now than he used to be, it happens all of the time, where some guy finds a new pitch and instead of being average to poor they all of the sudden become all stars.  Who knows, Dobber could become that guy, most likely not, but he could be, so give him a shot.  Can't be worse than Keuchel

 

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I see Dobnak as now the pitcher that could called upon for a spot start. Then he would be DFA'd, clear waivers (nobody is taking on his contract at this point), and be back in St. Paul.

You don't think an MLB team would take this ultra team friendly contract on?
2024 - $2.25MM 
2025 - $3.00MM
2026 - $6.00MM Club Option
2027 - $7.00MM Club Option
2028 - $8.50MM Club Option

If Dobnak were recalled and added to the 40 man roster and he pitched well in his start, I don't think there's a chance in hell he makes it through waivers after the season he's had. There are middle relievers making that kind of bank. If Dobnak can manage being a back end rotation arm by keeping his ERA in the 4.50 range, he'd be at least a $10MM AAV. Kyle Gibson got $13MM this past offseason and even Sean Manea got $14MM AAV on a 2 year deal.

[Rosterman]

Yes, deserving another shot. Twins are, afterall, paying him god money. Looks like Kody will be out 6-8 weeks, so he could go on the 60-day.

[arby58]

18 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I see Dobnak as now the pitcher that could called upon for a spot start. Then he would be DFA'd, clear waivers (nobody is taking on his contract at this point), and be back in St. Paul.

The contract isn't as onerous as some make it out to be. It's $2.25 million this year (pro-rated, that would be about $800,000 for the balance of this year) , $3 million next, and there is a team buy-out for $1 million (or an option for $6 million) in 2026. $3 million for a #5 starting pitcher is a bargain, if a team believes he has that capability.

[Jeff K]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

If I only told you this, with no names attached... "However, across his last 15 outings, a period of 74 innings, "X" owns a 2.80 ERA with 73 strikeouts. Since his 10-strikeout game on June 15, "X" has ripped off a run of eight starts with a 1.70 ERA"...was a starting pitcher at St Paul right now, how many would be scrambling to know more and wonder why he wasn't up pitching for the Twins?

That's some really good production folks. And if Dobnak was healthy in 2022  and throwing like this, he wouldn't have been in AAA. 

Now, does his game and tweaks in stuff play at the ML level? No way to know unless he gets a shot. But those numbers would seem to indicate he deserves a shot, whether it be with the Twins or someone else. The problem,  as previously noted, is the 40 man. Is there a move that makes sense to make room for Dobnak to get that shot with the Twins this second half as a fill in  arm for rest of someone else,  or any further injury? That's not to say Varland or even Matthews  aren't viable options. I'm just restating it's not as easy as just saying he deserves a shot and should get one. 

It's nice to see a good guy make  a comeback and doing well. It would be a great chapter 2 in his story if he could make it back to MLB again as an effective back of the rotation starter. I think there's a reasonably good chance he gets a shot again. I just don't know if it's going to be with the Twins.

Perfectly stated!  I think Dobbie will be pitching for a major league team this season.  Maybe it's the Twins, but someone is going to want him.